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Börsipäev 7. juuli

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  • Tere taas!

    Antud kauplemisnädal saab majandusuudiste poolt olema üpriski vaene - rohkem tähelepanu pööratakse ilmselt kolmapäevasele nafta raportile (kust oodatakse märke nõudluse vähenemise kohta mootorkütuste järele) ning neljapäevasele esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate arvule, mis eelmisel nädalal jõudis üle pika aja taas pealepoole 400 000lisest numbrist. Aktsiafutuurid, mis reedesel USA Iseseisvuse tähistamise päeval olid vahepeal juba üle poole protsendi punases, on nüüdseks nulli lähedale tagasi jõudnud. Nafta kaupleb ca -1.5% ja maksab $143.3.

    Teisipäeval, mil oma numbrid teatab Alcoa (AA), tehakse algust ka tulemuste hooajaga.
  • Ja 4. juulile kohast ilutulestikku saab vaadata siit. Kuskil minut 30 peal võib näha ka seda, kuidas 'naerunägusid' taevasse tehakse...

  • kas kuskilt võib leida ka selle summa mis 10,3minutiga õhku lasti
  • Nädal saab olema huvitav ka USA presidendivalimiste kampaanias, kuna McCain ja Obama keskenduvad majandusele.

    McCain teeb tuuri Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan ja Wisconsin osariikides, kus tal on Obamaga võrdsed võimalused võitmiseks. Eelmine nädal oli McCain Ladina-Ameerikas, kus avaldas toetust vabakaubandusele(hoolimata USA töötuse kasvust). McCain lubas sel nädalal avalikustada ka tegevuskava föderaaleelarve tasakaalustamiseks.

    Obama alustab oma nädalat North Carolinast ja räägib peamiselt majandusturvalisusest.

    Siiani on kandidaadid erimeelsusel maksude, kaubanduse ja tervishoiu teemadel. Eelmisel nädalal konsensuse ootustest suurem koondamiste arv näitas, et mõlemad kandidaadid on ühelmeelel töökohtade loomise suhtes läbi taastuvenergia programmide.

    See nädal on aga ilmselt oodata debatti eelarve teemal.

  • Tume pilv ei kao UK majanduse kohalt. Manufacturing output langes mais 0,5%. Aprillis suudeti näidata veel 0,1% kasvu.
  • WSJ väidab, et GM võib koondada veel tuhandeid valgekrae töökohti ja võib-olla müüa mõned oma brändidest (nt Buick, Saturn, Saab)
  • Kurvad uudised rootslastele, sest peale Saabi on Ford väidetavalt müümas Volvo sõiduautodivisjoni Hiina Chery Autole "naljahinnaga".
  • Hinna osas siis infot niipalju, et Hiina lehe Caijing Magazine andmetel pakutakse Fordile Volvo eest 2,8 miljardit eurot. Ford ostis ise Volvo 1999. aastal 5,3 miljardi euro eest.
  • Eelmisel aastal oli BMW lähedal Volvo ostmisele. Siis lükkas Ford jutud ümber.
  • Suurbritannia tööstuse toodang vähenes 0.8% võrra maikuus, mis on prognoositust palju rohkem.

    Pikemalt on sellest juttu Financial Timesis. 

  • REKLAAMIPAUS

    Eespool oli juttu 4. juuli ilutulestikust, need kes selle maha magasid saavad nädala pärast uue võimaluse. 14 juuli Bastille päeva ilutulesti Pariisis ei jää sellest emotsioonide poolest vaesemaks. Eelmisel aastal lasti tulevärki muusika taustal taevasse 31 minuti jooksul.






    Eelmise aasta ilutulestiku esimesed 5 minutit





    2006.aastal pandi Eiffel selliselt plahvatama






    Kõigil on veel võimalus kohale sõita. FLYLAL'iga on ka üpristaskukohane. Edasi-tagasi 3000 krooni.
  • ja saksa tööstustoodang langes samuti.

    German industrial production fell the most in more than 9 years in May, further evidence that Europe's largest economy is losing momentum.

    Output, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 2.4 percent from April, when it declined 0.2 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. That's the most since February 1999. Economists expected a gain of 0.3 percent, according to the median of 42 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. In the year, output fell 1.5 percent.

  • What's Your Time Frame?
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/7/2008 8:04 AM EDT


    Strategy is a style of thinking, a conscious and deliberate process, an intensive implementation system, the science of insuring future success.
    -- Pete Johnson

    Depending on your strategy, style, approach and time frame, this market is either very simple or very complicated. There is absolutely no question that the major trend is down. Although the Nasdaq and the small-cap indices have not yet taken out their lows of earlier this year like the DJIA and S&P 500 have, they are certainly heading in the same direction.

    If you are a position trader or have a longer-term time frame, you should simply defer to the fact that we are in a downtrend and stay very defensive. In order for the market to justify doing much buying, it has to first find a bottom and then prove itself with some follow-though to the upside. Only after the market has given us some hard evidence that the trend might be reversing should we be buying. There is nothing too complicated about respecting the fact that the trend is down. We might be enticed by short-term bounces, but the market is acting poorly and there is no reason to rush in buy.

    However, if you look at things from a shorter-term standpoint or if you're a very aggressive short-term trader, you have to be thinking about catching some sort of countertrend bounce. The selloff has been very severe, which has left a number of oscillators with oversold readings and sentiment extremely negative. The percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day simple moving averages is less than 10%, which is a level where bounces almost always occur. When things get this bad, there is always the chance of some sort of relief bounce.

    While there are myriad extreme readings that give the contrarians great hope for a bounce, we haven't managed the sort of panic or capitulation necessary to trigger a final cleansing washout that would lead to a bounce like we saw after the SocGen low in January or the Bear Stearns low in March. Typically an oversold market like this will eventually find a catalyst to support a rally, but so far it has not, and that is the big danger in trying to anticipate a bounce. We could easily see more downside before we bounce. If your timing is off here, it could prove to be quite costly.

    On the other hand, an oversold bounce at this point could be quite powerful, and short-term, aggressive traders have to be ready for one.

    So take your pick. Either focus on the bigger picture and respect the downtrend or get aggressive and try to catch a short-term bounce. Whatever approach you take, you have to stay disciplined and be sure to appreciate the fact that this market is not a healthy one.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ATSI +8.1% (very light volume)... M&A news: APPX +34.7% (Co to be acquired by Fresenius for $23/share in cash)... Select airline stocks trading higher with oil pulling back: UAUA +6.0% (Co also reports June traffic results), NWA +4.0%, CAL +3.7% , AMR +3.9%... Other news: BCE +17.4% (Co and purchaser enter into final agreement financing and credit agreements signed), CALM +9.0% (Co mentioned positively in Barron's), ZION +3.5% (showing strength this morning following Thursday's weakness on news of a capital raise; several firms are out defending co)... Analyst comments: TIN +6.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), CF +3.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MI -11.6% (Co to report loss in Q2 due to charges; return to profitability in Q3)... Select metals/mining stocks showing weakness with lower spot prices on strength in the dollar: DROOY -9.9%, AAUK -4.5%, GFI -3.4%, HMY -3.2%, GG -2.8%... European financial names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: RBS -7.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Cazenove), AIB -6.2%, STD -5.0%, UBS -4.8%, CS -4.7%, BCS -3.3%, DB -3.0%... Other news: QTWW -6.4% (files $75 mln mixed shelf after the close on Wed), TEVA -6.2% (COPAXONE Phase III trail did not demonstrate increased efficacy in reducing the relapse rate).
  • Turg üritab päeva rõõmsamates toonides alustada. Põhjus? Nafta on kiiresti allapoole vajumas ning hetkel juba -3%. Dollar samuti euro vastu pool protsenti plussis.
  • Ja siin siis põhjus YHOO aktsia ralli taga eelturul (Icahni kiri Yahoo kaasaktsionäridele, kus öeldakse, et MSFT on valmis ettevõtet ära ostma, kui uus juhtkond etteotsa saab):

    "During the past week I have spoken frequently with Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft (MSFT)... Our talks centered on the industry in general but, more importantly, on how YHOO and MSFT can do a transaction together. Steve made it abundantly clear that, due to his experiences with YHOO during the past several months, he cannot negotiate any transaction with the current board. His logic is simple. If and when a transaction was consummated, MSFT would be guaranteeing a great deal of capital at closing. However, a transaction could take at least nine months and perhaps longer to obtain regulatory clearance in the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere. During that period, if the current board and management team of YHOO mismanage the company (and their recent track record is far from reassuring), MSFT would be putting its money at risk and a great deal could be lost... However, Steve made it clear to me that if a new board were elected, he would be interested in discussing a major transaction with YHOO, such as either a transaction to purchase the "Search" function with large financial guarantees or, in the alternative, purchasing the whole company. He stated that MSFT would be willing to enter into discussion immediately if the new board that has been nominated were elected..."

  • Euroopa ja Aasia põhiindeksid:

    Saksamaa DAX +1.58%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.34%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.17%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.98%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.65%

    Poola WIG -0.38%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.92%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.28%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +4.60%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3.25%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.77%

    Tai Set 50 -1.65%

    India Sensex +0.54%

  • FNM ja FRE -20%... paanika on käega katsutav juba.
  • kui VIX 35 peal ära käib, vot siis on põrget oodata!
  • Dow Jonesi indeksi käive on viimastel kuudel keskmiselt 2 korda suurem kui 3 aastat tagasi keskmiselt.
  • Raha tehakse kogu maailmas juurde järelikult käibed tõusevad ning ka hinnad võiks tõusta aga ei tõuse kõik:(
  • Trükitud raha peab enne aktsiaturgudel ära põletama:), kui see tehtud, hakkavad ka hinnad vaikselt tõusma:)!

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