LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 18. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Ameerika Ühendriikide aktsiaturud olid teistkordselt sellel nädalal agressiivselt ülespoole liikumas. Dow kerkis üle 200 punkti tänu langevale toornafta hinnale ja loodetust parematele majandustulemustele finantssektorist. Dow Jones tööstuskeskmine tõusis 1.9% ja S&P 500 indeks kerkis 1.2%. Börsipäeva alustati tugeva tõusuga just finantssektorist, sest JPMorgan Chase tuli välja paremate tulemustega kui keegi oskas ette näha. Võib öelda, et turgude liikumist dikteeris suuresti ka toornafta hind, sest hinnatõusule reageeriti negatiivselt ja langusele vastupidi positiivselt.

    Lõppkokkuvõttes langes nafta hind $5.31 ehk $129.99 barreli kohta New York Mercantile Exchange-il. Kolme päeva jooksul on toornafta hind teinud $16 suuruse allasööstu tuues seejuures turgudele tasapisi kindlust tagasi. Hinnalangust soodustas ka maagaasi odavnemine 7.6% võrra. Walnut Asset Managementi juht, Robert Philips, ütles: “Langev toornafta hind peaks täheldama, et ka toorainete hinnad eraettevõtjatele langevad, mistõttu ongi investorid viimastel päevadel näidanud üles aktiivsust.” Mehe sõnul peaks tähelepanu pöörama volatiilsele lennundussektorile. Teine positiivne päev USA turgudel viitas paljude meelest sellele, et ralli aktsiaturgudel võib jätkuda hoolimata nõrkadele majanduslikele näitajatele. Philips tõdes, et üldiselt taastub turg enne majandust, kuid sellegipoolest võib turg ühel heal hetkel teha kiire ja ootamatu suunamuutuse. Nimelt pole ühtegi makromajandust kajastavat raportit oodata enne reedese börsipäeva lõppu, kuid analüütikute arvates pannakse investorite sentiment just siis proovile. Esimesi negatiivseid märke näitas juba järelrutul toimuv, kui paljud päevasisesed tõusjad langesid tagasi nulli tasemele. 

    Ühendriikide ettevõtete majandustulemustele reageerimist saab näha Joeli artiklist. 

  • Eilse börsipäeva suurima volatiilusega aktsiad:

  • Citigroup (C) toob oma tulemustega finantssektori investoritele taas naeratuse näole. Aktsiaindeksite futuurid liikusid varahommikuse -0.6% pealt C tulemuste järel nulli tagasi.

    Lõik Briefingust: Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.49 per share from continuing operations, $0.17 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.66); revenues fell 29.2% year/year to $18.65 bln vs the $17.55 bln consensus. Co said that results in the core franchise were offset by write-downs and credit costs. Results include $7.2 billion in pre-tax write-downs in Securities and Banking. Additionally, credit costs increased $4.5 billion, mainly driven by Consumer Banking in North America and Global Cards. Co said, "We continue to demonstrate strength in our core franchise. We cut our second quarter losses in half compared to the first quarter. The cost of credit increased by 20% from the first quarter, but write-downs in our Securities and Banking business dropped by 42%. Additionally, headcount and expenses declined sequentially. While there is still much to do, we are encouraged by our progress in delivering on our commitment to the re-engineering efforts".

  • Mõned analüütikute kommentaarid Google'i (GOOG) eile avaldatud tulemuste järel. Jeffco arvates on tegemist hea ostukohaga, sest fundamentaalselt ei ole midagi muutunud:

    Google-GOOG: View pullback as a 'great' buying opportunity@JEFF
    Jefferies notes GOOG delivered better than expected revenues and paid clicks growth, but missed EPS consensus on lower interest income. They believe GOOG remains one of the best positioned companies to weather to economic slowdown and reiterate a Buy rating and $600 target.


    Citigroup ei lase samuti ennast häirida kergest konsensusele alla jäämisest, kuid siiski langetab hinnasihi $610-ni ($630-lt):

    Reiterate Buy & Top Pick – Q2 results and the weakening macro environment (which is negatively impacting GOOG) don’t provide reasons to Buy. But despite the macro, despite continued sizable investments, and despite fewer opportunities for excess market share gains, GOOG’s organic bottom-line growth will be close to 30% in ’08. Which then sets up ’09 fundamentals to begin to benefit from: 1) a potentially improved macro environment, 2) potential opex leverage from “normalized” personnel/capex spend, and 3) material new Product Cycles – Display Advertising, Video (YouTube), and Mobile Search.
  • Ja panen siia ühe väikse tabeli Citi täna hommikusest tulemusest kus on näha, et jätkuvalt on EMEA, Aasia ja Ladina-Ameerika kasvu pakkumas:

  • Citigroup tuli eile õhtul initiga välja Mercki (MRK) kohta. Hinnasiht $44. Arvestades seda, et nad olid alles õige hiljuti sama hinnasihiga ja ostasoovitusega MRKi kohta väljas ning lõpetasid selle ca kuu aega tagasi seoses analüütiku vahetusega (5. juunil lahkus ettevõttest MRKi katnud analüütik George Grofick ja nüüd võttis MRKi katmise üle John Boris), oli ka väga tõenäoline, et MRK uuesti Citi osta-listi lisatakse. Seega, kuigi ettevõte on valuatsioonilt konservatiivse investeeringuna huvitav, on praegune Citi upgrade iseenesest non-event. Tulemused Merckil esmaspäeval enne turgu.
  • Piper Jaffray usub, et mõnda aega liigub Google'i (GOOG) aktsia külgsuunas, kuid aasta lõpus näeme tugevat tõusu:

    Piper attributes the share weakness post results to GOOG's suggestion of "a more challenging economic environment," which the company has never acknowledged before. They expect shares to trade sideways until the September, but rally in the back half of the year. Shares remain Buy rated.
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV-2_AIrTXQ&feature=related

  • AMD eile avaldatud tulemused valmistasid investoritele pettumuse. Täna on Goldman Sachs kinnitamas oma müügisoovitust aktsiale, langetades hinnasihi $3.50-ni varasemalt $5.00-lt. GS märkis, et juhtkonna vahetus on positiivne märk, kuid sellest hoolimata on ettevõtte probleemid tõsised.

    Advanced Micro misses by $0.08, misses on revs (5.30 +0.24) : Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.60 per share, excluding a $0.16 favorable impact, $0.08 worse than the First Call consensus of ($0.52); revenues rose 3.1% year/year to $1.35 bln vs the $1.45 bln consensus. In the seasonally up Q3, AMD expects revenue to increase in line with seasonality.
  • Sten teeb tähtsa näo, nagu kirjutaks AMD-st, tegelikult kuulas abesiki lugu.
  • Raske oli seda lugu mitte kuulata, sest Madis keeras oma kõlarite volüümi põhja ja terve kontor kuulis seda :)
  • Oli. GS'i hinnasiht AMD-le on ühtlasi ka new Street low.
  • Jäin millestki ilma? Kõrvaklapid peas ja kuulan SLB konverentsikõnet, mis on taaskord, nagu SLB'le kohane, täis enesekindlust ja teatud optimismi. Venemaa turule loodetakse oma teenuseid sel ja järgnevail aastal eriti ohtralt müüa ja ka muude regioonide osas on optimisminoot õhus.
  • Skeptical Traders Wait for Proof
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/18/2008 9:02 AM EDT

    A faith that hasn't been tested can't be trusted.

    --Adrian Rogers

    A strong earnings report from Citibank (C) is undoing much of the damage that was done by poor reports last night from Google (GOOG) , Microsoft (MSFT) and Merrill Lynch (MER) . Even a bounce in crude oil isn't enough to keep the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average down, as the market continues to embrace the idea that maybe this time the worst really is over.

    Ideally, what the market should see at this point is a mild pullback, some basing action to digest recent gains, and then strong follow through to indicate that there are some real buyers out there.

    At the moment, we have a good bounce from badly oversold conditions, but nothing to really give us confidence that a lasting bottom is in. When we pull back, as we certainly will at some point, the real test of this bounce will come. We need buyers to show that they have faith and are willing to jump in when emotions start to cool as the impact of the recent good news is no longer as fresh.

    Even though the indices have been up strongly two days in a row, the action has been extremely chaotic with some dramatic swings in sector leadership. The sectors that have been the strongest for many months, oil, steel, coal, solar energy, agriculture, etc., were destroyed Thursday, as financials delivered a huge short squeeze and drove up the indices. The only way to have kept pace with the indices was to have been fully invested in banks and brokers, which has not been a smart play for over a year.

    When the market puts together a big bounce like it has the last couple days, it can cause a lot of conflicting emotions for the active market player. If you have been playing defense and holding cash, the great likelihood is that you have underperformed the market the last few days.

    While the press and the usual perma-bulls are celebrating and acting like we can only go straight up from here, the prudent trader is still skeptical and waiting for proof. At this point, we should be starting to look for better technical patterns that we might embrace IF the market continues to show signs that a lasting turn is in play.

    The market has had the benefit of being very oversold just as some key earnings reports hit. The combination delivered a very good bounce, but this is the point now where we need the buyers to show that they really are ready to put more cash to work.

    Citibank is trumping a lot of issues from last night, and we will see how well we hold once we open. Obviously, the relief over banks and brokers is great, and we'll see if the market really believes that the worst is over there.

    We are certainly not out of the woods, but we have a good start. It is now up to the bulls to do the work needed to keep things going. While we can be a bit more optimistic, we can't be too trusting.
    ------------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MAT +14.9%, WTS +8.8%, CBST +8.5%, C +7.2%, TPX +6.9%, WERN +6.4% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), IGTE +5.7%, SWKS +4.1%, HON +3.7%, SLB +2.3%, VMI +1.5%, ICUI +1.2%... M&A news: BRL +8.3% (to be acquired by TEVA for $66.50/share)... Select mortgage/financials showing continued strength: DSL +8.2% (continued momentum following yesterday's 40%+surge), FNM +7.0%, WB +5.2%, RBS +5.2%, BCS +3.6%, HBC +2.3%, CS +2.0%, UBS +1.8%, STI +1.2%... Other news: PNCL +17.1% (Pinnacle Airlines, Delta reach agreement), MDVN +10.2% (announced publication of results of its first Alzheimer's disease pivotal clinical trial of the investigational drug Dimebon), ALU +5.4% (still checking), SMA +4.4% (Cramer makes positive comments), SPWR +3.0% (discloses that Emmanuel Hernandez has communicated his intent to retire as Chief Financial Officer), GSK +2.6%, PCX +2.2% (will replace CBRL in the S&P MidCap 400), SNY +2.0% (Zentiva rejects $1.92 bln Sanofi-Aventis bid as too low- DJ), CLF +1.8% (Harbinger Capital reports 18.36% stake in 13D filing; Opposes merger with Alpha)... Analyst comments: UAUA +8.5% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), VSE +5.0% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), SPWR +2.6% (upgraded to Buy at Broadpoint Capital), WPPGY +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), RDY +1.9% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), YUM +1.4% (upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia), MRK +1.2% (initiated with Buy at Citigroup).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SFI -15.3%, ESLR -10.9%, MAN -7.4% (light volume), AMD -7.0%, GILD -6.9% (also downgraded to Hold at Jefferies and downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO), GOOG -6.9% (also downgraded to Accumulate at ThinkPanmure), WIT -6.4%, MSFT -5.1%, INDB -4.4% (light volume), CIEN -3.0%, SAY -2.4% (light volume), SYK -2.1%, MER -2.1% (also Moody's Downgrades Merrill Lynch To A2, Stable Outlook and downgraded to Underperform from In Line at Fox Pitt), PMCS -1.9%, COF -1.6%... M&A news: ANR -3.7% (CLF's largest shareholder opposes merger with ANR), RSG -2.3% (declines to enter merger negotiations with Waste Management; says remains committed to Allied Waste Transaction)... Other news: SGLP -31.2% (confirms co's parent is experiencing liquidity issues and is exploring various alternatives; also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), TSL -5.2% (still checking), AMZN -3.3% (still checking)... Analyst comments: HBAN -2.9% (downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Fox Pitt), SMTS -2.6% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), TSO -2.2% (downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein), IGT -2.1% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup and downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), NVS -1.1% (downgraded to Hold at Societe Generale - Bloomberg).
  • AMD läheb oma rada, mida ta pidigi minema....
  • Euroopa ja Aasia põhiindeksid:

    Saksamaa DAX +1.60%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.00%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.17%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.52%

    Venemaa MICEX -3.23%

    Poola WIG +0.35%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.65%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.64%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +3.49%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.52%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.00%

    Tai Set 50 -1.01%

    India Sensex +3.99%

  • SLB tulemused pakkusid täna taaskord võimalust kaubelda FTI'ga ning ka ühe oluliselt õhema aktsia BOLTiga (10% tuludest SLB'lt 2007. aastal)... BOLTist kuulevad LHV Pro kliendid ühel päeval ka lähemalt.
  • Republic Services (RSG) lükkas täna hommikul tagasi Waste Managementi (WMI) $6.3 miljardi suuruse ($34 aktsia kohta) ostupakkumise, viidates pakkumise madalale hinnale ning asjaolule, et ettevõtte müük ei pakuks RSG aktsionäridele rohkem väärtust, kui kavatsetud liitumine Allied Waste'ga (AW). 

    Tagantjärgi on spekuleeritud ka selle üle, et pakkumine oli mõeldud ainult RSG ja AW ühinemise ära rikkumiseks, sest omavahel kavatsevad liituda USA suuruselt 2. ja 3. prügiettevõte ning nende kahe koosmõjul tekiks WMI'le tõsine konkurent. Turg oskas seda karta ning seepärast kauples RSG vahepeal kuni 9% madalamal võrreldes võimaliku ülevõtuhinnaga. 

  • AMD-st veel niipalju, et Hector Ruiz steps down. Managementi kapitulatsioon?
  • Kes Berliini või Londoni poole teele ..siis jätkem olulised fraasid inglise ja saksa keeles ka meelde!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op-BfuGTSzI&feature=related
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWK5B2pnbNY
  • Du
    Du hast
    Du hast den Schönster Arsch der Welt!!!
  • Kas kellegil on access sellele keskkonnale: Market News International

    Väidetavalt: " Citing "well-placed central banking sources," Market News International said the ECB was not excluding another interest rate rise to combat inflation, despite the region's slowing economic growth. "
    Tagajärg: "Euribor rate futures fell more than 10 ticks across the 2009 strip on Friday, pushing implied yields sharply higher after a media report said the European Central Bank may raise rates again this year. "

    Äkki keegi saaks pasteda uudise.

    The Irish Times´is oluline intervjuu Trichet´ga: '...our primary goal is to maintain price stability'
  • http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0718/1216330999711.html
  • See ei ole oluline punkt: "However, Mr Trichet refused to be drawn on the future of ECB interest rates. The ECB is "never pre-committed" to interest rate changes, he said, adding "we will do in the future whatever is appropriate to deliver price stability in the medium term"."
    Tavaline retoorika.
  • Sain infot muust allikast. Keegi võiks ikkagi originaali saata (kellaajaga).

    European Central Bank policymakers have played down the prospect of a cycle of interest rate increases to avoid pushing the euro higher against the dollar, news agency Market News reported on Friday. (1)
    "A $1.60 parity is not desirable for the ECB, but I don't see we have a choice," the news agency quoted what it called "a senior Eurosystem official" as saying. (2)
    "We discussed how we would send our message and communicate to the markets our decision without giving the impression that a new cycle of rate hikes had begun," the source said. (3)
    "We discussed it and decided on the wording of the communique to avoid further strengthening of the euro. The main reason we implied we are not beginning a series of rate hikes was to maintain forex stability." (4)
    Market News's sources also stated that the ECB was primarily focused on inflation, and were more explicit about the possibility of rate rises than Governing Council members have been in public. (5)
    "We certainly do not precommit on rate policy, but it does not mean a further tightening of monetary policy should be excluded," said a senior Eurosystem official. "Of course we are open to all options, but there is no information based on which we could discuss a rate cut." (6)
    Another source made a similar point. "Based on the fact that oil prices have been rising in an unusual manner, one can think that inflation trends will be higher than expected," he said. "Therefore, if this scenario is confirmed, I think further tightening of monetary policy would be appropriate." Market News said it spoke to the sources some days ago, before a recent fall in oil prices and partial weakening in the euro, which hit a record high earlier this week. (7)

    1. EUR on niigi ülehinnatud. Eelmise intressiistungijärgse pressika tooni (oli väga dovish) valimise algülesandeks oli tampida EURi mitte anda ülevaade otsuse põhjustest (milleks oli mure inflatsiooni, teise ringi efektide ja unit production/labour cost tõusu üle), sest see oleks tähendanud pigem hawkish tooni jätkumist ehk +200 pipsi (potentsiaaliga +1000 ehk) swingi üles.
    2. ECB selgelt rahulolematu 1.6000 üle. Otseselt mitte uus asjaolu.
    3. Selge vihje tagatubades toimunud strateegiaaruteludele. Ma lasin ennast härida Paulsoni visiidist ja arvasin, et see tingis dovish´ma retoorika, sest tundus, et FED tõesti soovis USD tugevnemist ja ECB "aitas natuke kaasa" retoorika reaktsioonilisust maha keerates. Rumal oletus. ECB on piisavalt iseseisev ja nad hoopis kasutasid USA nihet enda huvides :)
    4. Otsene viide sellele, et EUR tampimine oli hetkel olulisem.
    5. Otsene viide sellele, et infla tampimise strateegia on ikkagi peateema hetkel (seda lihtsalt ei saanud välja näidata).
    6. Uus asjaolu süsteemis. Trigger. Terav vastuolu eelmise intressiotsusejärgse pressikovenrentsi "On the basis of our current assessment, the monetary policy stance following today’s decision will contribute to achieving our objective."-ga. Lisaks kinnitus, et ei ole ilmnenud asjaolusid mis lubaks inflatampimise strateegiat hüljata.
    7. Küll vihje nafta hinna tõusule ja commodity mõjule inflatsioonile, kuid see ei ole IMO peamine põhjus. Eelpool lingitud intervjuus tuuakse uuesti välja Unit labour costs ja Unit production costs teema: "Unit labour costs are an important indicator of future inflation, because they are a major cost in the euro area economy. In recent years, we have had an increase rate in unit labour costs of 1.0 per cent in 2005; 0.9 per cent in 2006; 1.5 per cent in 2007; and 2.4 per cent in the first quarter of the present year.

    When you try to disentangle the factors behind this development, about half of the increase is attributable to increases in wages and salaries and the other half is due to a reduction of labour productivity. The overall result is that we have observed in the last two years a significant rise of unit labour costs.

    The recent rise in unit labour costs is an indication that we have to take them into account. So there are risks that we had to counter. I wouldn't say at all that second-round effects are a generalised phenomenon at present but we see signs that we have to take seriously. From that standpoint I am concerned about the schemes in which nominal wages are indexed to consumer prices. They involve the risk of a wage-price spiral - very detrimental to employment.
    "


    Seega: ECB on tegelikult ikka veel tõstmas, ajastus veel ebatäpne. Intressitundlikud, olge valmis ootamatuks! Fikseerige oma kohustusi.
  • Kas ECB ja FED -i käitumismotiivide ja probleemid algpõhjused pole mitte selles, et euroopas mängivad põhirolli pangad ja börs on teisejärguline, millest väga palju ei olene, usas on vastupidi, kogu majandus keerleb börside ümber.

Teemade nimekirja