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Börsipäev 23. juuli

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  • Finantssektor on viimase 5 kauplemispäeva jooksul teinud läbi meeletu ralli, viies põhjadest tõusule valimatult pea kõik finantssektoris tegutsevate ettevõtete aktsiad. Eile langetas Ladenburg Thalmann Bank of America (BAC) hinnasihti $39 pealt $36 peale, väites, et pangal on tõsised probleemid ka tulevikus kriisist väljumiseks, mida võimendab ka Countrywide ost. Siiski lõpetas BAC eile päeva +13.27% tõusu $32.35 tasemel, mis on +75.4% enam, kui viis kauplemispäeva tagasi tehtud $18.44 põhjadest. Too big to fail?

  • Ilmateadlased teatasid eile, et orkaan Dolly peaks kõikide eelduste kohaselt mööduma Mehhiko lahes paiknevatest naftapuurtornidest. New York Mercantile Exchange’il on toornafta hetkehinnaks $127.70. Toornafta hinnad on teinud ligikaudu 17-protsendilise languse 11. juulil tehtud tipust (kui barreli hinnaks oli rekordiline $147.27).

  • Pole finantssektor ainuke, mis lennukina õhku tõusnud. Lennutööstus teeb silmad ette - plahvatuslikuks kombinatsiooniks oli väga suur lühikeste positsioonide osakaal ja kiiresti kukkuv nafta hind, mis on ka täna hommikul protsendi miinuses ja kaupleb $126.9 barreli eest.

    Viimase 5 päevaga siis UAUA +169%, LCC +142.6%, AMR +110%, NWA +68%, DAL +65%, JBLU +41.5% ja LUV +14%...

  • Praeguses keskkonnas on naftahinna langus üks väheseid katalüsaatoreid, mis võiks turge tõsta ka vähe pikemas ajavahemikus.
    Muu statistika täna Euroopas suht kesine. Euroala tööstustellimused langesid mais ligi 2x rohkem kui konsensus ootas. Kuigi see statistika on volatiilne, on -3.5% langust ühe kuuga suht järsk kukkumine.
    Prantsuse SKP'st 15% moodustav majapidamiste tarbimine kukkus juunis 0.4% (konsensus ootas -0.6%)
  • Esmaste töötu abirahade taotluste number tuleb homme enne turgu. Ei mäletagi aga aega, mil siin kestvatest töötu abiraha taotluse (continuous claims) numbritest räägitud oleks. Täidan selle lünga ja panen siia vastava graafiku:

  • Looking for Leaders
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/23/2008 8:03 AM EDT

    If you can't change your fate, change your attitude.
    -- Amy Tan

    The market action yesterday was significant and quite promising. We managed to rally in the face of much bad news. Banks soared while announcing billions in write-offs, and the market was positive despite disappointing earnings reports from Apple (AAPL) , American Express (AXP) , Merck (MRK) and Texas Instruments (TXN) were disappointing.

    The obvious conclusion from this action is that we have priced in the worst. Sentiment had become so negative that it overshot to the downside, and now there is a massive sigh of relief that the world is not coming to an end. In addition, the price of oil and various commodities has come down fast, helping to shore up confidence even more.

    We know what the driving forces are behind this move. The big question now is whether it can keep going. While the action yesterday was certainly very positive, issues still abound.

    Banks have bounced so big, so fast that it is going to be tough to keep building on that momentum. They are technically overbought, and there is likely to be a bout of profit-taking after some huge gains.

    Most important, the market needs some leadership. Technology stocks would be the best candidate, but so far, the earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) , Google (GOOG) , TXN, AAPL and some small stocks have been lackluster, and the group is not acting well. The sectors that have led for most of the year are oil-, infrastructure- and commodity-related, and many of these have broken down badly in recent weeks. Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and medical have been leading, but they are defensive in nature and need some help to drive this market higher.

    So we have positive sentiment to help, but what we need now is sector leadership beyond the big bounce in banks. The breakdown in oil and commodity stocks is going to accelerate a rotation, but there isn't any great clarity into what at this point. The bulls have a good opportunity to get things moving for at least a decent bear-market bounce, but they need some horses to ride other than financials.

    We have a positive open this morning, as yesterday's strong close is carrying over and some decent earnings reports hit. Overseas markets were strong and gold and oil continue to pull back.
    --------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: INFN +13.5%, ISRG +11.9%, NWA +9.6%, TSFG +6.8%, STSA +6.6% (light volume), RES +6.2%, WLP +5.6%, WYE +5.2%, RNT +5.1%, VOCS +4.7%, ILMN +4.2%, EMC +3.3%, PFE +3.0%, T +2.7%, NSC +2.6%, AXYS +2.6%, SXL +2.4% (also indicated minimal credit exposure to SemGroup bankruptcy), RJF +2.3%, BTU +2.3%, YHOO +2.1%, MCD +2.0%, COP +1.1%... M&A news: PHLY +63.2% (Tokio Marine Holdings to acquire Philadelphia Consolidated for $61.50/share in cash)... Select European financials trading higher following strength overseas: RBS +4.7% (Australia's CBA in talks to buy ABN Amro units - FT), BCS +4.3%, LYG +2.9%, HBC +2.1%... Select airline stocks showing continued strength with crude trading lower again this morning: LCC +12.9%, DAL +9.2%, JBLU +8.4%, UAUA +7.0%, AMR +6.8%, CAL +6.3%... Other news: FRE +13.4% and FNM +10.4% (Lawmakers agree on outline of big housing pact; government to bolster FNM and FRE in an emergency - WSJ), MT +1.5% (still checking), BMY +1.3% (Bristol-Myers and AstraZeneca submit NDA in the US and Marketing Authorization Application in Europe for ONGLYZA for the treatment of type 2 diabetes)... Analyst comments: FHN +12.1% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), SYNA +4.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), FRO +3.2% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), STI +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird and upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan), AKS +2.6% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), AXA +2.5% (upgraded to Neutral at HSBC), MI +2.0% (removed from Conviction Sell List at Goldman - DJ), VOD +1.2% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), SU +1.0% (upgraded to Sector Outperform at CIBC).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AEHR -26.6%, ANAD -23.2% (also downgraded to Equal Weight at boutique firm, downgraded to Source of Funds at ThinkPanmure and downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), ADCT -22.2% (also downgraded to Neutral at Baird and downgraded to Market Perform at FBR), VMW -15.7% (also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup and downgraded to Source of Funds at ThinkPanmure), SEAB -12.7% (light volume; also downgraded to Market Perform at FBR), ETFC -12.3%, ABFS -11.0%, CHRW -10.6% (also downgraded to Equal Weight at boutique firm and downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), COST -10.5%, ZMH -9.7% (also downgraded to Neutral at Piper), PTV -6.5%, LLTC -4.4%, WM -4.1% (also Moody's reviews WaMu for downgrade and S&P downgraded), CRI -3.9% (light volume), ATI -3.9%, BA -3.7%, CX -3.4%, UIS -3.3% (light volume), CERN -2.8% (also downgraded to Hold from Speculative Buy at Canaccord Adams), BRCM -2.3% (also downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at Needham), PTP -2.3%, FULT -2.3%, ORLY -2.2% (light volume), GSK -1.0%... Select giant retailers showing weakness following COST cautious guidance: BJ -9.2%, WMT -2.6%, TGT -2.1% (also downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse)... Other news: FITB -3.5% (Cincinnati Fincl announces the block sale of FITB stocks to generate net proceeds of approx. $360 mln), XTO -3.0% (announces 26 mln share offering), NOK -2.1% (still checking)... Analyst comments: RZ -6.0% (initiated with Sell at Piper), FORM -5.4% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), GIII -5.3% (downgraded to Market Weight at Weisel), SNIC -4.1% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), USB -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), ONXX -2.3% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), AXL -1.9% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), CAT -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), WM -1.4% (downgraded to Sell at Piper and downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Merrill).
  • Ja RBC tõstab täna kivisöesektorist Peabody Energy (BTU) hinnasihti $60 pealt $90ni. Päris südikas call...veel juuli alguses oli BTU $90 all, pärast mida kiiresti $60 ligidale kukuti.
  • Joel, keri allapoole uudiseid .... RBC raises their tgt on ACI to $72 from $38 ... veel südikam :)
  • Hommikul tuli Philip Morris International (PM) tulemustega:

    Philip Morris International beats by $0.03; guides FY08 EPS above consensus (52.05 ) : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.86 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.83; net revenues rose 15.0% year/year to $6.71 bln. Co issues upside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $3.32-3.38, excluding non-recurring items, compared to previous guidance of $3.18-3.24, vs. $3.25 consensus.

    Pikem kommentaar Pro all, aktsia +0.5%.

  • Euroopa ja Aasia põhiindeksid plusspoolel:

    Saksamaa DAX +1.18%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.67%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.08%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +2.42%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.02%

    Poola WIG +2.20%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.97%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.69%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.29%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.62%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.96%

    Tai Set 50 +1.90%

    India Sensex +5.94%

  • Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a draw of 1558 K (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 600K); gasoline inventories had a build of 2847 K (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 200K); distillate inventories had a build of 2419 K (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 2500K).

    Mootorkütuste varudele silmad - taas oodatust suurem tõus.
  • SPDR Homebuildersi (XHB) komponentidest on täna juba Ethan Allen (ETH) oma tulemused avaldanud. EPSi osas löödi analüütikute ootusi ning aktsia kaupleb 3.5% kõrgemal. Peale turgude sulgemist avaldavad oma tulemused veel Ryland Group (RYL) ning Pulte Homes (PHM).

    XHB ise kaupleb +3.7%, olles päeva alguses ka üle 7% plussis käinud. Viimaste päevade tugevus peitub housing billi sisulises vastuvõtmises ning ka Bush on kinnitanud, et varem lubatud vetot eelnõule ei panda.
  • Nafta -3.2% ehk $124.3 barrelist... ja energiasektor saab peksta.
  • Hersey (HSY) kaupleb hommikuste tulemuste peale 5.5% kõrgemal:

    Hersey reports Q2 earnings of $0.29 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.28; revenues rose 5.1% year/year to $1.11 bln vs the $1.08 bln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.85-1.90 vs. $1.83 consensus; reaffirms rev growth guidance of 3-4%.

    Morgan Stanley on aga ettevõtte suhtes teisel arvamusel, pidades hinnataset põhjendamatult kõrgeks:

    According to guidance, EPS will not begin to grow 6-8% until at least 2010 and even assuming that Hershey can earn ~$2 next year still leaves it trading at ~18-times 2009 earnings (a 3-4 multiple point premium to the broader packaged food group, despite the fact that several companies in the peer set have greater short, medium and long term growth prospects). Finally, we assign a very low probability to earnings upside, significant strategic activity, or an aggressive use of the balance sheet to create shareholder value.

    Paika jäetakse oma underweight soovitus ja $30-ne hinnasiht, aktsia lõpetas päeva $37 juures.

  • AMZN prelim $0.37 vs $0.26 First Call consensus; revs $4.06 bln vs $3.96 bln First Call consensus
  • RYL prelim ($5.70) may not compare to ($0.79) First Call consensus; revs $487.9 mln vs $492.99 mln First Call consensus

    Suur osa kahjumist sellest:

    The Company had inventory and other valuation adjustments, joint venture impairments, and option deposit and feasibility write-offs totaling $180.4 million, as well as a noncash tax charge of $124.0 million, during the second quarter ended June 30, 2008.
  • AMZN kukub AH nagu kivi, kui arvestada seda, et oli vahepeal tõesti 11% up. Sell the news?
  • sadrah, vastus peitub selles:

    Excluding the $53 million non-cash gain recognized on the sale of European DVD rental assets, an actual of $0.28 appears comparable to the consensus of $0.26.
  • Selgus, et suur osa EPS´i biitimisest tuli ühekordse loomuga tulust: Thomson Reuters is telling us that excluding the $53 million non-cash gain recognized on the sale of European DVD rental assets, an actual of $0.28 appears comparable to the consensus of $0.26.

    Eks näis, mis nad konverentsikõnel räägivad. Teen homme tulemustest kokkuvõtte ka.
  • Eile teatas tulemused ka Pulte Homes (PHM), mis teenis kahjumit aktsia kohta -$0.63 (analüütikud olid oodanud -$0.69). Kui aga maksusoodustused kõrvale jätta, jäädi turu ootustele kergelt alla ning aktsiapõhine kasum ulatus -$0.85-ni (konsensus -$0.82). Eelmise aasta teise kvartali kahjum ulatus -$2.01-ni.

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