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Börsipäev 10. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • USA futuurid hetkel aasia tõusu najal +2%, mille võib rikkuda meie aja järgi kell 13.00 kvartalitulemused teatav AIG. Euroopa ja Venemaa samuti kauplemas positiivsetes toonides, pinnuks silmis balti turud, kus ostuääred jällegi õhukesed.
  • Peamine põhjus, miks Aasia turud nii optimistlikud on, peitub Hiina 4 triljoni jüääni (ca $600 miljardit) fiskaalpoliitilises majanduse stimuleerimises. See on päris suur summa...ca 20% riigi eelmise aasta SKPst.
  • ning ei jää eriti alla USA analoogsele paketile.
  • Macquarie Securities andmetel oli tegelikult suur osa sellest paketist juba oodatud (maavärina järgsed ülesehitustööd Kirde-Hiinas, ettevõtete maksukärped, maareformid jpm). Uute investeeringute osakaal moodustab paketist ca 220 mld USD. Kuna paljud kulutused on üsna aeganõudvad (infrastruktuur, keskkond, maareformid), ei pruugi pakett majandust tsüklilisest allakäigust päästa.
  • reede hommikusest põhjast tänasesse eelturu tippu on ikka väga magus tõus kingitud.
    Ikka müüki kõik mis annab.
  • Selle nädala majanduskalender on üpriski hõre. Tähtsamatest raportitest ehk neljapäevane esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate arv ning reedene jaemüügiraport oktoobrikuu kohta, millele on kindlasti üpriski madalad ootused.
  • General Motors (GM) downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Securities- tgt cut to $0 from $4
  • Mnjah... General Motors, Ford jne. Toredad ettevõtted ning tõenäoliselt need USAst ära ei kao. Kuid mäletavasti ei kadunud ära ka Fannie Mae ega Freddie Mac. Lihtsalt common stock võib muutuda suhteliselt väärtusetuks...
  • What Will the Bulls Do With a Gap Up?
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    11/10/2008 7:50 AM EST

    Hope is a good breakfast but a bad supper.
    -- Sir Francis Bacon

    The market is in a very hopeful mood as we kick off a new week. A huge stimulus packed in China, more interest rate cuts by banks around the world and optimism that the new administration of Barack Obama will help the market finally find a turning point has us up very sharply in the early going.

    A big gap up open on Monday morning is often an invitation for selling rather than buying, but the good news is that the mood is upbeat. The idea that maybe -- just maybe -- we have priced in all the bad news and are groping to find a bottom is certainly appealing and being considered by many.

    Technically the bulls are arguing that we have held above the October lows and have been in a wide trading range for about a month. The market is building a base of support, and with positive seasonality kicking in, we have the potential to turn up and make some headway.

    The bears say just take a step back and look at that trend. There is no doubt this is a bear market, and you can't fight that trend for long. The nature of bear market is to produced some periodic sharp upside spikes, but those are opportunities to sell and short, not to believe that a major trend shift is taking place. The bears will point to the fact that we have already worked off the extreme oversold conditions that existed in October and that hope and optimism are growing fast. That is a contrary indicator that may make these upward spikes even more prone to selling.

    The way I consider this market is that I want some proof. We have nothing to indicate that a significant change in market character is taking place. The trends are all down, there is no individual stock leadership and finding a good chart is nearly impossible. While it's possible the market may be at a low or in the process of producing a short-term tradable bounce, there isn't anything to be excited about until the market actually proves that it can makes some sustained headway.

    If you take my approach, you will be late to the party but you'll avoid being sucked into numerous false bottoms that cost you big money. A lot of investors get tremendously frustrated when they see the market bounce while they're cautiously positioned, but that's the price you pay for not being loaded up during a downtrend.

    The bulls have some positives going for them to kick off the week, but make no mistake about it -- the trend is not their friend. We'll see how well this gap-up open holds, and then we can plot a bit more strategy.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AIG +26.1%, FRPT +18.2%, BRCD +6.5%... M&A news: CYCL +102.6% (AT&T to acquire Centennial Communications for $8.50 per share)... Select stem cell related stocks trading higher following WSJ story saying Obama will allow federal funding of stem-cell research: ASTM +29.6%, STEM +28.6%, GERN +20.1%, OSIR +10.7%... Select drybulk shippers showing strength : DRYS +10.9%, TBSI +10.2%, EXM +9.2%... Select metals/mining names showing strength with higher spot prices and weaker dollar: MT +18.0%, HL +16.7%, AAUK +12.8%, RTP +12.1%, BHP +12.0%, SLW +10.9%, FCX +10.7% (announces molybdenum production curtailment and plans to defer restart of climax molybdenum mine), BBL +10.5%, AU +7.3%, GOLD +7.1%, AUY +5.7%, GFI +4.2%, GLD +3.1%, LMC +3.0%... Select iron/steel stocks showing strength: STLD +15.3%, AKS +6.1%, X +6.0%, NUE +4.4%... Select oil/gas names showing strength with crude prices up 7% and weaker dollar: TOT +4.5%, RDS.A +3.0%, CVX +2.2%, BP +1.8%, XOM +1.7%... Other news: VISN +9.3% (provides information to investors; cash on hand and cash to be generated from its operations will be sufficient to not only support its business activities but also meet its cash requirements in the foreseeable future), PBCT +7.2% (will replace UIS is S&P 500), ASML +6.3% and SAP +5.1% (still checking for anything specific), MCD +3.8% (reports October global same store sales +8.2%), AZN +2.8% (CRESTOR demonstrates cardiovascular risk reduction in a large statin outcomes study)... Analyst comments: TEF +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform at JPMorgan), WFC +1.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ACAS -20.1% , FTEK -9.0% , ALD -6.8% , ENER -5.5% (also downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), HBC -1.1%... Select airline names ticking lower with crude trading 7% higher premarket: UAUA -4.9% , DAL -3.3% , AMR -2.5% , LCC -2.2%... Other news: CC -56.0% (to reorganize under Chapter 11), DSCO -27.5% (FDA establishes target action date of April 17, 2009 for potential approval of Discovery Labs' surfaxin), XNPT -16.6% (Xenoport and GSK announce plans to withdraw and resubmit New Drug Application for Solzira), MBI -12.3% (Moody's downgraded MBIA to Baa1; outlook is developing), STD -6.4% (plans to raise 7.2 bln euros in share sale - Bloomberg.com)... Analyst comments: GM -12.2% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank and downgraded at Barclays).
  • poleks ime kui hirmu leevenedes ja lootuste tekkides börsid, eeskätt usaga , teevad -20% päevase kukkumise.Siis hakkaks valust rääkima.Siiamaani on kõik ilus.
  • karuturupõrked on tõeline mesi
    ainult, et kaua pole mõtet mõnuleda, saab veel nõelata
  • mesilaste peletamiseks on suitsikus välja mõeldud :)
    Jätka mõnulemist :)
  • Kas kõlakaid ka liigub keda Citigroup osta tahab?
  • minaseal,

    Altucher RealMoneyst pakkus välja ühtteist mõned minutid tagasi:

    The Journal is reporting that Citigroup is reportedly in talks to buy a regional bank that "overlaps with its retail banking unit". While the paper did not name any specific company, the most likely target is New York Community Bank (NYB). NYB is a 150-year-old, S&P 400 bank based here in New York with a 4.5 billion dollar market cap; it's the third largest thrift in the country. It trades at a dirt-cheap 10 times next year's earnings and has a $13 dollar book value. 3 years ago Citigroup offered $23 for NYB, for which NYB said no thanks. My guess, they bid $18-$20 and the company accepts. NYB also has a rock-solid dividend of 7.4%
    Another possible candidate making its way to trading desks is Atlanta-based STI, one of Warren Buffett's oldest bank holdings (STI owns a big stake in KO that they've been liquidating to shore up their balance sheet. STI also has the secret formula for Coke stashed in a safe in Atlanta).
  • kas keegi oskab mulle,kui algajale seletada,mis on tinginud GS sellise languse.ON sellel mõni paikapidav seletus peale selle ,et kõik kukub?
  • aikikor,

    turul kuulujutud, et äkki tahab GS nädala keskel aktsiate pakkumist teha, lahjendades sellega tänaseid aktsionäre.
  • uso, sees tagasi 3$ odavamalt hommikusest müügist
    jääb üle oodata järgmist väljamõeldud põhjust, miks turg hetkeks rallida võiks 10%
  • Circuit City omadega ühel pool. Blockbusteril vedas vist.
  • tänud teabe eest,aga ole hea ja seleta mulle(puust ja punaseks)mida see mulle tähendab??kui suurt oletatavat hinda sellisel juhul pakutakse jne ise ostsin 98-ga,kordan ,et olen algaja ja ei karda oma kaotusi tunnistada!
  • aikikor,

    GSi lisaemissiooni võimalus on praegu veel kuulujutu tasandil. Kuulujuttude puhul ei tea kunagi, kas see on tõsi, milline on selle pakkumise struktuur (suunatud või avalik), milline on pakkumise maht ehk kui palju tänaseid aktsionäre lahjendatakse ning samuti ei ole teada, mis hinnaga pakkumist tehakse... Sellepärast ongi see kuulujutt - väga palju määramatust ja raske öelda, milline on tegelik efekt tänastele aktsionäridele (kui seda üldse on).

    Tänane olukord turgudel on lihtsalt selline, et igat kuulujuttu võetakse alguses tõe pähe - reaalselt realiseerub neist ehk iga kolmas, neljas või viies....
  • tänud...eks siis saab näha...omal nahal ikka parimad õpitulemused...jäävad alatiseks meelde ja selgeks ka,irw
  • uso, väljas, eks ootab uut suuremat kukkumist tipust

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