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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 26. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Mis ei õnnestunud seitsmel intressimäärade kärpel, õnnestus $600 miljardil dollaril. Peale FEDi teadet, et Freddie, Fannie ja Ginnie käest kavatsetakse osta $500 miljardi väärtuses (+$100 miljardi eest antakse FRE-le ja FNM-le laene) kinnisvaralaenudega tagatud väärtpabereid, langes 30-aastase hüpoteeklaenu intressimäär 6.38% pealt 5.5%-ni. Tegemist oli suurima ühepäevase langusega ühe aasta jooksul, mis tähendas paljudele laenukontoritele kiireimat päeva viimase aasta jooksul, kuna kliendid soovisid oma olemasolevaid laene refinantseerida.

    Tõenäoliselt on eilsega langusel ots lahti tehtud ja kinnisvaralaenude määrad kukuvad edasi.
  • Morgan Stanley on langetamas Kellogi (K) hinnasihti ($60 -> 58), viidates peamisels valuutaefektile. Samas jäetakse soovitus overweight tasemele ning öeldakse, et tegemist on endiselt nende sektori lemmikutega.

    Our estimates are now even further below consensus, which has largely not updated for F/X, creating incremental headline risk as companies continue to provide F2009 outlooks (i.e., SLE, HNZ, and CPB have each traded off substantially at least partially due to outlooks below consensus estimates not fully adjusted for F/X).

    Kui Campbell Soupi (CPB) (32% tuludest rahvusvahelistelt turgudelt) aktsiagraafikut vaadata, on negatiivse valuutaefekti "teadvustamine" üsna valulik protsess.

  • Suzuki tegevdirektor tõmbab decoupling teooria (ehk kui USA majandus aeglustub, muud majandused ei aeglustu)poolehoidjatele (ei tea, kas on veel selliseid?) täna taas vee peale. 

    "It's impossible to tell where demand will go next year and beyond," Suzuki Motor Chief Executive Osamu Suzuki said at a car launch in Tokyo on Wednesday. "If there's a market that's not being affected by the United States, it's not on this planet."

  • Kalleid ehteid müüv Tiffany (TIF) lööb kasumi osas ootusi, kuid müügitulud 5% oodatust madalamad. 2009. fiskaalaasta kasumiprognoosi tõmmatakse varasema $2.82 kuni $2.92 pealt alla $2.30 kuni $2.50 peale. Konsensus oli $2.58, seega ei midagi väga drastilist, kuid taaskord kinnitus, et ka jõukam elanikkonna kiht tunneb pitsitust - ja kui aktsiaturud on üle maailma poole oma väärtusest kaotanud, siis peavadki pitsitust tundma.
  • MBA Mortgage Applications 1.5% vs -6.2% Prior
  • EU proposes EUR200 bln economic stimulus package - DJ
  • Additional detail on earlier headline about EU proposing a EUR200 bln economic stimulus package

    Reuters.com reports the European Commission approved a package aimed at giving the sagging European economy a sharp, temporary boost with a 200 billion euro ($260 billion) spending plan across the 27-nation bloc, an EU source said. The plan, higher than initially thought, calls for a targeted and temporary fiscal stimulus of 1.5 percent of EU gross domestic product. National measures would account for around 170 billion euros, or 1.2% of GDP, and EU and European Investment Bank budgets around 30 billion euros. The plan calls for at least 5 billion euros of extra funding for the hard-hit European car sector and accelerated structural fund payments to member states of up to 6.3 billion euros. The plan will be submitted to an EU summit in December for approval by European leaders. 

  • October Personal Spending -1.0% vs -1.0% consensus
    October Durable Goods Orders -6.2% vs -3.0%, prior revised to -0.2% from +0.8%
    October PCE Core y/y +2.1% vs +2.2% consensus, prior revised to +2.3% from +2.4%
    October Personal Income +0.3% vs +0.1% consensus; prior revised to +0.1% from +0.2%
    October PCE Core m/m 0.0% vs 0.0% consensus, prior +0.2%
    Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 529K vs. 535K consensus; prior revised to 543K from 542K
  • Kestvuskaupade tellimused kukkunud ikka päris agaralt. Kui korra hirm majanduse üle inimesi haarab ja hakatakse mõtlema, et kas 6 kuu pärast ollakse ikka oma tööpostil edasi või mitte, siis ollakse igasuguste big-ticket itemite ostmisel oluliselt ettevaatlikum.
  • Norma peal e mõeldes:
    Autoliv-ALV downgraded to Neutral from Strong Buy at Buckingham
    Buckingham downgraded ALV citing the weak European production environment. Target $40.
  • Saksamaa DAX -2.01%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -2.69%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -2.06%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.09%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.02%

    Poola WIG -0.39%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.33%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.81%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.48%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.91%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.83%

    Tai Set 50 +1.44%

    India Sensex 30 +3.81%

  • You Can't Price In the Unknown
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    11/26/2008 8:32 AM EST

    History has demonstrated that the most notable winners usually encountered heartbreaking obstacles before they triumphed. They won because they refused to become discouraged by their defeats.
    -- B.C. Forbes

    Every morning lately we are greeted with some surprising statistics about how horrible the economy and market conditions are. My two favorite this morning are that there are only 13 stocks in the S&P 500 that are up this year, and that the cost of bailout so far has been estimated from around $4.6 trillion to $7.4 trillion, which exceeds the inflation-adjusted cost of World War II -- a bargain at only $3.6 trillion.

    It is pretty stunning to contemplate such things, and you have to consider that if we are making history like this on daily basis, perhaps we might need to be a bit patient before things turn around. When you suffer to this degree, recovery is going to take a while. However, the good news is that those who are persistent and patient will ultimately be rewarded well. It is just a matter of time.

    None of us has ever dealt with a market situation like this before, so some of the things that normally help us navigate are just futile exercises giving us false hopes. Normally we can talk about the market discounting the worst and reaching a bottom as we look forward, but in this market, we still don't seem to have a handle on how bad things will ultimately be. If we don't know where we are going, we can't price it in.

    By far the worst thing about this market is that there has been no place to hide. Every asset class and every group of stocks has been pounded. Even cash can't find a decent yield these days. In past bear markets there has usually been some small oasis of safety where we can even make a little money while most stocks trend down. That has not been the case this time.

    I don't want to be too depressing, but I do want to emphasize that what we are experiencing is like nothing we have seen before and we can't just blithely conclude that we are suddenly going to get better and go straight back up. We need to stay focused on protecting capital, being opportunistic and thinking shorter term. This is not the time to buy a stock for the long term. This is the time to make sure you assets are protected so that you will be a major player when the tide finally does turn.

    We have slightly soft action as we await some economic data. With the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, look for volume to slow and action to be choppy. Generally we have some positive trading around Thanksgiving, but after a three-day bounce the upside is going to be a bit tougher at this point.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    General news: HOC + 12.4% (will replace LFG in S&P 600), RMBS + 5.0% (showing continued strength following yesterday's 20% climb), CHL + 4.1% (still checking for anything specific), STBA + 3.5% (will replace WCN in the S&P 600), TMP + 3.5% (light volume; will replace SPC in the S&P 600)... Analyst comments: HLS +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BGP -52.4%, YGE -15.1%, JCG -14.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham), DE -10.0%, TIF -8.8%, VRGY -6.7%, TIVO -5.9%, TNB -4.7%, ANDE -2.5% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Piper Jaffray)... M&A news: BCE -42.3% (Preliminary view from KPMG is that deal may not beat solvency test by December 11)... Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: NOV -4.4%, RDS.A -3.6%, BP -3.3%, APC -3.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), PBR -2.6%, SU -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), COP -2.4%, TOT -2.2%, XOM -1.0%... Select financial names trading lower: UBS -7.4%, ING -6.1%, MS -4.7%, BAC -4.6%, BCS -4.1%, MER -4.0%, JPM -3.7%, COF -3.6%, GS -3.0%, WFC -2.7%, HBC -2.4%, RBS -2.4%... Select airlines ticking lower with crude higher: LCC -9.2%, UAUA -4.9%, AMR -1.7%, DAL -1.5%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: RTP -13.4% (Rio Tinto under pressure on asset sales - Reuters), AAUK -2.6%, MT -1.8%, GOLD -1.6%, BBL -1.4%, BHP -1.2% (downgraded to Hold at Canaccord)... Select solar names trading lower following disappointing YGE results: JASO -8.8%, CSUN -8.7%, FSLR -4.4%, ESLR -3.4%... Other news: LFG -73.6% (to be removed from S&P 600), ALU -4.5% (announces the appointment of Paul Tufano as CFO), KG -3.7% (discloses it is exploring an alternative financing arrangement for its pending acquisition of Alpharma), GSK -3.5% (down despite Reuters reporting that co says that it not involved in latest European Commission raids), CAT -3.4% (down in sympathy with DE), CAG -2.5% (filed for a $4 bln mixed shelf offering)... Analyst comments: EXM -7.7% (downgraded to Sell at Cantor), SAP -3.9% (downgraded to Sell at Societe Generale), DT -2.8% (downgraded to Underperform at Bernstein), DLTR -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at MKM Partners), CBE -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), NXY -1.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), CPB -1.2% (downgraded to Hold at Argus).
  • November University of Michigan Confidence 55.3 vs 57.5 consensus
    November Chicago PMI 33.8 vs 37.0 consensus, prior 37.8
  • October New Home Sales 433K vs 450K consensus, down 5.3% m/m, prior 457K
  • NASDAQ 100 (NDX) leaders & laggards through first half hour of trading

    Early Session NDX % Gainers:
    LAMR +8.3%, STLD +5.9%, FMCN +4.9%, INFY +5.1%, LEAP +5.1%, GRMN +4.8%, CDNS +4.4%, RIMM +4.2%, CTXS +3.5%

    Early Session NDX % Decliners:
    AMLN -6%, JAVA -4.2%, LVLT -2.3%, AMZN -2.3%, CEPH -2.2%, SRCL -1.9%, SHLD -1.6%, LBTYA -1.6%

    NASDAQ TRIN @ +0.50
    NASDAQ A/D Line @ +15

  • Homme on aktsiaturud kinni ning ka reedel vaid poolik päev. Usun, et ka juba täna on kauplemisaktiivsus turgudel keskmisest madalam ning ameeriklased valmistuvad Tänupühadeks...
  • Leidke uudisest juhtumisi üks Eesti nimi:

    BCE's deal to go private hits a big snag
    Shares tumble as KPMG won't deliver 'solvency opinion'

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The planned sale of the largest telecommunications company in Canada is in jeopardy after an independent auditor told BCE Inc. it could not vouch for certain conditions in the $42 billion deal.
    Montreal-based BCE, owner of Bell Canada, was slated to go private in one of the biggest leveraged buyouts ever. Yet the accounting firm KPMG notified BCE and its intended purchasers that it could not guarantee the company's solvency if the sale went through as planned.
    The purchasers, a group led by Providence Equity Partners and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, have lined up financing from a handful of banks including Citigroup, but BCE would be saddled with a heavy debtload after the sale is completed.
    Given the current market turmoil, KPMG said it could not deliver a so-called solvency opinion before the proposed closing date of Dec. 11. A receipt saying BCE can meet a definition of solvency is required before the deal can be completed.
    BCE sank 38% to $19.42 in New York.
    In a statement, BCE said it's "disappointed" with KPMG's preliminary opinion and that the company is reviewing the methods by which the accounting firm arrived at its result.
    "The company disagrees that the addition of the [leveraged buyout] debt would result in BCE not meeting the technical solvency definition," said Siim Vanaselja, BCE's chief financial officer.
    Since the opinion is preliminary, BCE said it will work with KPMG to ensure it can satisfy all closing conditions, leaving open the chance that the accounting firm's final opinion will change. If KMPG sticks to its initial finding, BCE said, "the transaction is unlikely to proceed."
    If the sale fell through, one of the biggest beneficiaries could be Citigroup, the ailing financial giant that received a U.S. government bailout this week. Citigroup reportedly is obligated to provide up to $11 billion to help finance the leveraged buyout.
    Citibank would have a hard time, however, reselling bonds to support the deal amid the ongoing global financial crisis. The bank could be forced to keep them on its own books, further constricting its financial position.
    The BCE buyout has faced a number of hurdles since it was announced in mid-2007, when the market was much healthier. BCE beat back a legal challenge that went all the way to the Canada Supreme Court and the deal was renegotiated just five months ago.
    Other investors that are part of the buyout group include Madison Dearborn Partners LLC, and Merrill Lynch Global Private Equity. In the wake of a huge stock-market selloff, those firms could end up paying much higher price than they would have if the deal were negotiated now.
  • GM oli vahepeal täitsa fondikõlbulik jälle maksis oma 5 dollarit. Imelik päev uudised nadid aga rallib?
  • Megas,

    See, et tänaste uudiste peale on niimoodi rallitud, on muidugi kahtlemata väga positiivne. Aga ma paneks suurema osa sellest rallist siiski a) võrdlemisi õhukese turu arvele b) novembri kuulõpu fenomeni alla, kus üritatakse hindu üles markida.
  • XOM 80 peal, DUG alla 30 ?
    Pea sama mis suvel, 100+ $ naftabarreli juures :O

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