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Börsipäev 15. jaanuar

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  • Australia ASX 100 -129.20 -4.25% 2,907.70 1/15 5:07pm
    Australia ASX All Ords -147.50 -4.07% 3,476.80 1/15 5:07pm
    Australia ASX Mid-cap 50 -145.50 -4.32% 3,224.80 1/15 5:07pm
    Hong Kong Hang Seng -737.23 -5.38% 12,967.38 1/15 2:23pm
    Hong Kong HSCC Red Chip -175.11 -5.63% 2,934.65 1/15 2:23pm
    Japan Nikkei 225 -419.86 -4.98% 8,018.59 1/15 3:00pm

  • Selline uudis:
    WMT Wal-Mart files debt securities shelf offering in a form S-3
    Mida see aktsiate riiulile panemine tähendab? Miks seda kasutatakse? Kas seda saab kasutada igal ajal?
  • Shelf offering on selline asi, kus siis kas aktsiate või võlakirjade müümiseks on varasemalt ettevõtte poolt töö ära tehtud ning vajalike asutuste poolt kõik heakskiidud saadud. Seejärel on luba ettevõttel ükskõik millisel talle sobival momendil siis need aktsiad või võlakirjad n-ö riiuli pealt ära võtta ja kiiresti turule paisata.
  • Euroopa Keskpanga intressimääraotsuse järgset pressikonverentsi saab vaadata kell 15.30 siit.
  • Apple (AAPL) on eilse Steve Jobsi teate peale, et kuni juunikuu lõpuni viibib mees tervisepuhkusel, ca 7% miinuses. Ilmselt nii mõnigi mõlgutab mõttes võimalust, et täna teatatud tervisepuhkus kuni juuni lõpuni pikeneb suvel aasta lõpuni, mille järel Jobs annab ettevõtte juhi koha üldse uuele inimsele üle...
  • Joel, kas mõnel suhkruvett tootval ettevõttel pole mõnda juhti üle? :-)
  • Oskab keegi öelda, mis kell intressimääraotsus tuleb?
  • Karum6mm : )

    Olgem ausad, tänases tööjõu keskkonnas ei tohiks juhtidest puudust olla.
  • Väike küsimus? Kas homme on optsioonireede?
  • Kuna homme on kuu kolmas reede, siis jah.
  • Olgem siis tõesti ausad, headest juhtidest on alati puudus, eriti tänases majandusolukorras.
    Mingi suhkruvati äri etteotsa vast jah leiaks mõne poolpiduse :)
  • Juhtidest ilmselt puudust ei ole. Sellistest juhtidest, kes sedavõrd korralikult, et mitte öelda manikaalselt R&D-sse sekkuks, neid vaevalt, et palju (võtta) on.
  • Karum6mm, et silmitseks Hudsoni jõge ja kutsuks mõne Pepsi juhi arvuteid tootma?
  • Karum6mm vihjab vist ühele tõigale Steve ja Bill-i elus, kus nad arutasid, kas minna suhkruvett müüma või arvutiasjandust arendama
  • Oli vist selles filmis:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pirates_of_Silicon_Valley
  • Minuteada istus Jobs kunagi Pepsi toonase juhiga ühel Hudsoni jõe äärsel katusel ning küsis, millal ta hakkab suhkruvee müümise asemel maailma muutma. Teemaks oli Pepsi juhi Apple'sse tööle kutsumine kui ma ei eksi.
  • Vist oli idegi nii, kui suhkruveest ju räägiti. :)
  • Millised on ootused tänase intressimäärade muutmise suhtes?
  • Härrased, ma arvasin, et kõik teavad seda suhkruvee lugu. John Sculley oli Pepsico boss, kelle Jobs Apple't juhtima kutsus väidetavalt nii, et: "Do you want to sell sugarwater for the rest of your life or...?" . Sculley kusjuures andis talle mingi hetk kinga. Siis juhtus jupp koledaid asju, pärast mida naases Jobs ühedollarilise palgaga ja tegi kõigile meest (iPod jne).

    /Muidugi see, et Tallinna kesklinnas on 500m raadiuses 3 eri omanike poolt rannitavat Apple'i poodi, viitab sellele, et kuskil on ikka kõvasti üle-investeeritud. Vaadakem või Apple'i arvutite turuosa.)
  • kui ma oleks aapl aktsiate omanik, siis ma arvaks, et tõenäoliselt on selle mehega ühe pool ja samuti selle firma tulevikuga
  • kui kaidoke seda ostaks, siis ma kardaks, et kukub alla $10 varsti
  • Ise lugesin seda Karum6mmi jutustet lugu Apple-nimelisest raamatust (Jim Collins autoriks). Soovitan kõigile, kes tehnoloogia ja eriti Apple enda vastu huvi tunnevad. Huvitavat lugemist jätkub tegelikult ka muude erialade esindajatele.
  • ECB määr nüüd 2.0% peal, Fedi määr 0% kuni 0.25%. Zero interest rate world...
  • Noh, nüüd oleme siis olukorras, kus ECB arvab, et praegune kriis on suisa sama hull, kui pärast TMT-mulli vastu taevast lendamist. :-D
  • mina liigutaks intressi vaheldumisi üles ja alla
    ei annaks märku, et ainult langeb ja võimalust uute mullide tekkeks
    50 alla, kuu prast 25 üles, 25 alla, 25 üles ,50 alla, 25 üles jne.
  • Apple upgraded to Buy at Amtech- tgt $100

    Amtech upgrades AAPL to Buy from Neutral with a $100 tgt saying they feel a 6-month medical leave of absence is the right thing for AAPL and believe the company is in able hands under the leadership of COO Tim Cook. The firm says the next 6 months is a "trial period" for Tim and if he does well, Steve will become a senior advisor to AAPL and pass the CEO baton over to Tim. With the stock trading in the aftermarket <$80 per share, the firm says they cannot ignore the compelling valuation (10x pro forma CY09E EPS) and are upgrading the stock.
  • rams, kuskil oli mingi java-põhine simulatsioonimäng, et sai USA intresse makrouudiste valguses muuta - samas pidi tööhõivet ja inflatsiooni kontrolli all hoidma. Kõik, kes seda mängu mängisid, said tulemuseks EPIC FAILURE. :-D
  • Trichet annab pressikonverentsil mõista, et veebruari istungil võibolla määrasid (oluliselt) ei liigutatagi, kuna siis pole piisavalt uut infot. Et järgmine suurem otsus võetakse vastu ülejärgmisel kohtumisel märtsis.
  • Mitte kõik. Ma sain esimese katsega infla ja tööpuuduse kontrolli alla :D

    FED guru reappointed.
    Solid policies sustain economic recovery

    http://www.frbsf.org/education/activities/chairman/
  • Seekord oli väike deflatsiooniline shokk sees, saaks ka veel parema headline. :P
  • Aasta on alanud paljutõotavalt... Kui juba 2008. aasta jaanuaris toimus korralik verelaskmine, siis 2009. aasta esimese kahe nädala langus on suutnud seda ületada. Dow on aasta algusest kukkunud 6.6%, S&P 500 6.7% ning Nasdaq 5.5%. Ainult viimase puhul on sama perioodi langus ajaloos ühe korra suurem olnud - eelmise aasta -6.6%.
  • -6.6%. (eerie sounds on the background)
  • Just 0,06% separates us from The Beast.

    (eerie sounds continue to play on the background)
  • USA aktsiaturgude indeksid alustavad päeva nulli lähedalt, väikeses miinuses. Suurelt on punases aga taas nafta hind, mis $36 juures noolib 24. detsembri põhja $35.1 peal.

    Saksamaa DAX -0.13%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.27%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.39%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.12%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.67%

    Poola WIG -0.35%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -4.92%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.37%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.45%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.05%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -5.84%

    Tai Set 50 -3.57%

    India Sensex 30 -3.46%

  • Don't Fool Yourself
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/15/2009 7:32 AM EST

    It is on our failures that we base a new and different and better success.
    -- Havelock Ellis

    The market has been hit with a stunning amount of negative news lately. Aside from rotten retail sales and booming unemployment, we have Steve Jobs leaving Apple (AAPL) due to health problems, Microsoft (MSFT) considering layoffs and the federal government having to put more capital into keeping the Bank of America (BAC) acquisition of Merrill Lynch alive.

    Nothing particularly positive has come across the news wires lately, but what makes it worse is that the awful news flow has overwhelmed market participants. They have not anticipated it or priced it in effectively. There was a lot of talk in the last month or so that even though the economy probably hadn't yet bottomed out, maybe the stock market was looking beyond that and would find some support and start acting better. The charts actually built some support after the November lows, and the potential we could gain a little upside traction appeared to be there. Unfortunately after a little burst of optimism to start the new year, we have fallen into a pit of despair and are struggling to find some reason to believe that maybe the bad news is going to be priced in at some point.

    Technically we've gone down too far, too fast not to produce some sort of bounce soon, and the bad news this morning from AAPL and BAC may be capitulatory-type events, but even if they are, we are likely to get a short, sharp bounce for the flippers to play. The longer-term technical condition of the indices and the vast majority of stocks simply doesn't support any sort of accumulation at this point.

    It is very important in a market like this to identify your time frames. There is a potential for a countertrend bounce, but you are talking about something that may last just hours or a day or so. If your time frame is weeks and months, the charts have pretty much been destroyed by the last week of action, and there is little setup for systematic accumulation.

    When the market acts as poorly as this one has recently, too many people think they have to try to catch the bottom. That isn't your job unless you are a very short-term trader. Your job as an investor is to try to be in the market when the trend is in your favor. It doesn't matter if you are late to the party. In fact, way too many people are hurt badly trying to be too precise in catching market turns.

    The facts right now are that the market has been downtrending sharply for a week and is becoming oversold. The news flow is terrible and the mood sour. The negatives may be severe enough to support some sort of bounce, but it isn't likely to be the start of a major uptrend.

    Do some short-term trading if that is your inclination, but don't fool yourself into thinking that it's a good time to build up positions in individual stocks. There will be plenty of time for that when we finally have a market that proves it can act better for more than a few days.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CRYP +18.3%, CLC +6.2%, PPDI +4.6%, ASML +4.0%, JPM +3.2%, MOT +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan)... Other news: CYPB +49.8% (Forest Labs and Cypress announce FDA approval of Savella for the management of fibromyalgia), TSRA +12.5% (announced that the International Chamber of Commerce's International Court of Arbitration has issued an award of $60.6 mln to Tessera for Amkor's material breach of its license agreement), FRX +8.3% (Forest Labs and Cypress announce FDA approval of Savella for the management of fibromyalgia), DNDN +4.1% (still checking), NUAN +4.0% (Warburg Pincus to Purchase $175 Million in Nuance Common Stock), AVAV +3.9% (will replace Immucor in the S&P SmallCap 600), ASEI +2.5% (will replace Landstar System in the S&P SmallCap 600; also announces it received $67.1 million U.S. government order for ZBV Military Trailers), NYB +2.2% (CEO says on CNBC that co has demonstrated an ability to maintain their dividend under more difficult conditions), CAM +1.7% (receives $100 mln Subsea Systems order from BP under Gulf of Mexico Frame Agreement), BLUD +1.4% (will replace FBN in the S&P MidCap 400)... Analyst comments: X +1.2% (initiated with Buy at Citigroup).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CVH -14.9%, TRMB -13.5% (also downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), CYNO -10.7% (light volume), ADSK -9.8%, MI -7.8%, RCRC -4.4%... M&A news: ISH -4.5% (very light volume, Liberty Shipping withdraws offer for International Shipholding Corp)... Select financial names showing weakness: BAC -6.2% (US is close to extending billions in additional aid to BofA to help it digest Merrill - WSJ), GNW -6.0%, PRU -3.7%, BBT -3.1% (Moody's changes BB&T's outlook to negative), IBN -3.1%, COF -2.3%, HBC -2.1%, MET -1.6%, BCS -1.4%, UBS -1.3%... Select oil/gas names trading lower: BTU -1.8%, RDS.A -1.7%, BP -1.6%, CHK -1.4%... Other news: SAY -22.8% (Govt rejects Satyam request for INR1.5 bln in funds - DJ), FBN -9.9% (BLUD will replace FBN in the S&P MidCap 400), RWT -9.5% (proposes underwritten public offering of 17 mln shares of common stock and provides preliminary information for Q4 2008), RMBS -7.6% (still checking), ARTC -6.5% (receives Nasdaq delisting notice), AAPL -4.7% (Apple CEO Jobs announces medical leave of absence until the end of June; also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at FTN Midwest and downgraded to Underperform at RBC), ELN -4.5% (still checking), SD -2.5% (provides financial and operational updates; ended '08 producing approx 325 MMcfe per day), GRMN -1.8% (down in sympathy with TRMB)... Analyst comments: FRPT -3.2% (downgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart), DAI -2.8% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), CCL -1.9% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), PG -1.1% (downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein).
  • Citi (C) ja Banc of America (BAC) ei ole suutnud oma langust pidama saada, C hetkel -17.5% ja BAC -12%.
  • Noh, C läheb natsionaliseerimisele?
  • SideKick, ma loodan siiralt, et oskasid oma C pika positsiooni õigel ajal kinni panna? Või läksid (veel) pikemaks?
  • ma läksin eelmisest citist välja@8,15 ja nüüd olen vaikselt tagasi ostnud.
  • Goldman maksab praegu 50% rohkem kui C. GS cap 36,8 mld USD ning C cap 23,5 mld USD.

    52 nädala tipus on Goldmani aktsia maksnud 101 mld USD ning Citigroupi aktsia 162 mld USD
  • st terve Goldmani aktsiapaki väärtus vs C väärtus siis
  • Nafta - tähelepanelik lugeja vaatab ka eri perioodide futuuride vahesid. Interesting.
  • January Philadelphia Fed -24.3 vs -35.0 consensus, prior revised to -36.1 from -32.9

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