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Börsipäev 4. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Täna avaldavad kvartalitulemused teiste seas Kraft Foods (KFT), Philip Morris International (PM) ning peale turgude sulgemist Cisco (CSCO), Pulte Homes (PHM) ning Visa (V).
  • Viisin eilsed muutused ka tulemuste tabelisse sisse ning link sellele siin. 

  • Mis puudutab majanduse stimuleerimist, siis Hollywood näib tõmbavat oma raskusi üsna vapralt. Jaanuaris kulutasid USA tarbijad kinokülastustele 1.03 miljardit dollarit - mullusega võrreldes pea 19% enam, märkides uut ajaloolist jaanuari rekordit. Osaliselt tulenes see piletihinna kallinemisest, mis kerkis aastaga $7.18 pealt $7.28-le, kuid ka pileteid osteti rohkem: 141 mln versus 121 mln aasta tagasi.
  • Erko, jääb vaid loota, et nad tasapisi hakkavad ka kunstiliselt paremaid filme tegema. Surutis pidi inspiratsioonile hästi mõjuma. Võib-olla on asi selles, et ma olen juba vana mees, kuid see "style over substance," ning klisheede pidev copy-paste, mida Hollywood viimasel ajal produtseerinud on, kisub juba tüütuks.
  • Loota võib aga viimasel ajal meeldib filmitööstusel kangesti mängida kassahittide järgedele, mis paraku ei jäta väga palju ruumi uutele lähenemistele teemade vallas.
  • Kusjuures number 4 näib olevat eriti halvaendeline...

    Indiana Jones 4 - George Lucas and Steven Spielberg raped my friend.
    Die Hard 4 - kus oli see "me ei võta end surmtõsiselt" attitude?
  • Karumõmm: vaata näiteks J. Hemptoni 3. veebruari blogi: Smashed up old fuddy-duddy guys. Pole just eriti lihtne teha kvaliteetselt asju, mida piisavalt ei ostetaks.

    BTW plaanib ennast "kriisiinvestoriks" tituleeriv tüüp varsti Baltikumi aktsiaid hakata ostma. Pole vist seda sinu "parimal juhul stagnatsioon" arvamust kuulnud?
  • kristjan, 5+ link! :-D

    Aga Balti turud on minu meelest jätkuvalt selline paras konna keetmine aeglasel tulel. Mitte, et ma ei oleks rõõmus olnud, et Läti ja IMF sellised diili saavutasid, mis mu kohalikku lemmikstokki aitasid.
  • Inflatsiooni langus Euroopas ei meelita tarbijaid ostma. Detsembri jaemüük kukkus mullusega võrreldes -1.6%, oodatust 0.2 protsendipunkti enam
  • Mis toimub, YHI kühveldab kaubamaja, eesti ehitust ja tallinki turgu? Mingi fond kaputt?
  • MBA Mortgage Applications 8.6% vs -38.8% Prior
  • USA alsutab päeva plussiga. S&P500 indeks on +0.6% @ 836 punkti, Nasdaq +0.5% ning nafta +2.1% @ $41.7.

    Saksamaa DAX +1.42%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.60%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.84%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.16%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.41%

    Poola WIG +0.48%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.73%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.25%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.28%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.95%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.77%

    Tai Set 50 +0.64%

    India Sensex 30 +0.57%

  • Stay Short Term
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/4/2009 8:58 AM EST

    The superior man is easy to serve, but difficult to please. The inferior man is difficult to serve, but easy to please.
    -- Confucius

    Although our financial and economic crisis has been going on for over a year now, we are still bogged down in trying to find some solutions. The market has been in a trading range recently as we experience spikes of hope that something effective might be done, followed by the realization that there are no easy fixes. Market players want something positive that they can embrace to justify some buying, but there are just too many flaws and uncertainties to have any high degree of confidence.

    On top of this uncertainty about governmental rescues, we have some very poor earnings reports to contend with. Disney (DIS) , Electronic Arts (ERTS) , UPS (UPS) , Time Warner (TWX) and others confirm that our economy is in free fall, but the good news is that some of the worst reports are finding buyers who think maybe the worst is already priced in.

    The toughest thing about this market right now is that the news flow is just plain awful, and our biggest potential positive is a stimulus plan or a bank bailout, which have be miserable failures so far as a way to rally the market. Government is not inspiring confidence, which shouldn't be a big surprise, but what's worse is that it's keeping us trapped in this limbo where we have high hopes one day and despair the next.

    Back in December we heard a lot of talk that maybe the worst had been priced in. That, combined with high hopes for the new Obama administration, gave us a push off the November lows, but now we are back to assessing the same things and struggling to find support once again.

    Technically the charts are still holding, but they aren't showing much life. While yesterday we had a pretty good point gain, we did not have participation from financials, and that's a major concern -- they should be anticipating some positive bailout news.

    We are in a trading range and will have to stick with short-term plays until we have further clarity. We are holding support and have room for a bounce, but we can't forget that we are still in the teeth of a nasty bear.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RVBD +18.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Merriman Curhan Ford and upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen), SOLR +17.3%, NETL +10.3%, TZOO +7.0% (light volume), CKSW +6.4% (light volume), ILMN +5.4%, NOV +5.1%, ALU +4.3% (light volume), ADS +4.2%, BHP +2.5%, ADVS +2.4%, ERTS +1.9%, TNB +1.4% (light volume)... Select drybulk shippers showing strength: GMR +19.9%, EGLE +11.1%, EXM +8.3%, NM +6.6%, DRYS +5.6%, GNK +3.9%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: MT +4.5%, RTP +3.5%, BBL +2.5%, AAUK +2.0%, GOLD +1.9%, AUY +1.5%... Other news: ALTH +18.8% (announces final results from pivotal PROPEL trial of Pralatrexate in Patients with Peripheral T-cell Lymphoma), GRMN +4.3% (the co and ASUSTeK Computer announced a strategic alliance to design, manufacture and distribute co-branded location-centric mobile phones), PRGO +4.2% (modestly rebounding from yesterday's 20%+drop), DHI +4.0% (continued strength from yesterday's ~20% surge higher), FCX +2.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), LLY +2.0% (confirms that Prasugrel receives unanimous approval recommendation from FDA Advisory Committee)... Analyst comments: GG +1.4% and ABX +1.3% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), DUK +1.0% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MEE -11.1%, JKHY -9.8% (light volume), KFT -9.5%, VASC -9.4%, DIS -8.4% (also downgraded to Sell at Wunderlich), VOCS -6.8%, COST -5.6%, HL -4.5%, CRNT -4.5%, ACE -4.1%, TWX -3.5% (light volume), YUM -2.8%, TUP -2.7%, CTX -2.2%... Other news: RMBS -22.3% (Calif. federal district court halts Rambus patent infringement case against Micron), AIB -12.1% (still checking for anything specific), LINC -11.7% (files 5.5 mln share common stock offering of which 4.5 mln are by selling stockholders), BJ -6.1% and WMT -1.6% (down in sympathy with COST), AZN -5.0% (still checking), ANH -4.5% (announces public offering of 8 mln shares of common stock), SNH -4.1% (announces it has commenced a 4 mln share common stock offering), FTE -4.0% (still checking), HOG -1.7% (Moody's cuts Harley-Davidson rating to A2; continues review of long- and short-term ratings for possible downgrade)... Analyst comments: SQNM -4.8% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), NYB -4.3% (downgraded to Sell at Sterne Agee), OSIP -2.8% (hearing weakness attributed to downgrade at tier 1 firm), ADM -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), DLTR -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), WMB -1.6% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), MIR -1.5% (downgraded to Underperform at RBC), SE -1.2% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC).
  • Dick Arms on RM'st teinud tehnilise pildi Dow Jones indeksile - tagurpidi head and shoulders. Mees ise usub, et üha kitsamaks muutuvast kauplemisvahemikust tuleb läbimurre varsti ülespoole. Kuigi olgem ausad - sogases majanduskeskkonnas võivad makrouudised, rahavoogude liikumised fondides või ettevõtete tulemused joonte tõmbamise päris sassi ajada.

    Kuid 7800-8000 punkti tase Dow Jonesile kindlasti väga oluline ning selle murdumisel tasuks müügiklahvi vajutavate investorite arvu kasvamist karta küll.

  • January ISM Services 42.9 vs 39.0 consensus, prior 40.1
  • Philip Morris International prelim $0.71 vs $0.62 First Call consensus

    Philip Morris International sees FY09 $2.85-3.00 vs $3.43 First Call consensus 

    Tulemused üle ootuste, kuid guidance väga nõrk. Põhjus dollari tugevnemises, ilma selleta tõuseksid tulud 10-14%:

    PMI forecasts 2009 full-year diluted earnings per share to a range of $2.85 to $3.00, at current exchange rates, versus $3.32 in 2008. Excluding an adverse currency impact of $0.80 per share, 2009 guidance is projected to increase by 10%-14%. 

    Aktsia on seepeale esialgsest suurest headline miinusest -4.5%-ni kosunud.

  • BAC tahab vägisi alla 5 minna
    küsimus suurele ringile, kui nii läheb, siis:
    a) kõik jätkavad pankade ostmist, need ju nii odavad
    b) something smells bad and shit hits the fan
    c) pohhui see BAC
  • variant a
    õlts ju vaja kätte saada ;)
  • US House Speaker Pelosi says not sure further bank bailout request is inevitable - Reuters
  • US House Speaker Pelosi says 500 million americans are about to lose their jobs
  • Nafta on punases - ohumärk turule, kui $40 tase peaks murtama.
  • just nii
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8hMJVXt09E
  • video pealkiri seletab asja: dumber than soap.

    Ladina Ameerikas (Patagooniast Rio Grandeni) elab 570 miljonit inimest, USAs elab 300 miljonit inimest ja Kanadas 33 miljonit inimest.
  • kas see viimane lause oli minu harimiseks mõeldud?
  • kuna ridade vahelt message kohale ei jõua, siis niipalju lisaks, et minu kommentaar oli vastuseks AlariÜ postitusele
  • võin vihjeid juurde anda kui vaja, andke märku
  • lihtsalt tõin välja Ameerika elanike arvu, siis saab arvutada töötuse.
    Tööjõu hulk rahvastikust on ca 66%, ehk Ameerikas (Põhja ja Ladina) on 595 miljonit töölist. Kui hetkel on juba tööpuudus 5-7% (ehk 35-42 miljonit), siis pärast Pelosi stsenaariumi realiseerumist on kuni 542 miljonit töötut, ehk tööpuudus on 91,09%.
    mnjahhh...

    *lähen nüüd Roubini kummardamise sektiga liituma*
  • ikka ei jõua kohale
    küsimus on Pelosi ütluste usaldusväärsuses

    või sa pead mind idioodiks?
  • ära ennast nüüd üle kah tähtsusta, ma ikka imestan pelosi lolluse üle
  • sorri, ma üritan edaspidi rohkem ;) ja :) ja :( kasutada
    vahest võetakse siin asju liiga tõsiselt ;)
  • ...Obviously she meant 500 thousand (she corrected herself later).

    rahu, ainult rahu

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/say-what-funny-things-politicians-say.html

  • 04-Feb-09 08:15ET January ADP Employment Change -522K vs -535K consensus, prior -693K

    viimasel ajal on iga kuu 500K+ inimest töö kaotanud.
  • reedesed numbrid tulevad huvitavad, jõulude aeg hoitakse tagasi
    ja aasta algus on parim aeg selliste otsuste tegemiseks
  • Happy new year and get the f...k off in my office. Paistab, et meil sama rida.
  • Bac ronib 5 peale tagasi nii et 2 liitrisele bockile kork pääle tagasi.
  • Online gaming stocks CRYP, GIGM get a lift following 14:36 FT story about the potential for rolling back legislation against online gambling
  • Speedy, tihti üritatakse ebameeldivaid asju ka aasta lõpu sättida.. Nn. jätta halb eelmisse aastasse.
    Reedene töötuse% raport on kindlasti tugev hirmu allikas, ent turul võib ka karudele üllatus olla ..
  • crom- turg võib liikuda üles või alla aga välistada ei saa ka külgsuunalist liikumist.
  • Turg liigub nüüdsest 3D-s, ehk ka sisse ja väljapoole.

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