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Börsipäev 25. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eilne päev USA turgudel on hästi mõjunud ka Aasia börsidele: Nikkei 225 +2.7%, Hang Seng +1%, Sensex +2%.

    Täna avaldatakse jaanuari olemasolevate majade müüginumbrid, konsensus ootab võrreldes detsembriga müüdud majade tõusu 4.79 miljonini (aastane tempo).
  • LHV Balti tehingute ja hindade edastamise süsteemis hetkel tõrked. Vabandame selle pärast. Kes soovib tehinguid teostada, palume helistada telefonil 6 800 420. tegeleme probleemiga ning loodame selle võimalikult kiiresti lahendada.
  • Normaalne olukord taastatud, kui kellelgi on pretensioone, siis paluks võtta ühendust telefonil 6 800 445.
  • Eile õhtul tuli tulemustega USA tuntud pitsapood Papa John (PZZA), kes 15. detsembril oli kinnitanud oma 4. kvartali üle konsensuse kasumiprognoosi ning tõstnud 2009. aasta kasumiprognoosi.

    Eilsed tulemused näitasid, et EPSi teeniti $0.48, mis oli oodatud $0.41st oluliselt rohkem ning müügitulusid on rasketel aegadel suudetud hoida eelmise aastaga võrreldes enam-vähem samal tasemel (-1.5% yoy), mis jäi marginaalselt ootustele alla. Kuid taaskord ollakse tõstmas 2009. aastaks antavat kasumiprognoosi – uueks vahemikuks $1.36-$1.44, mis sisaldab ühekordseid kulutusi suuruses $0.30 kuni $0.35. Varasemaks samasisuliseks prognoosiks oli $1.32-$1.40 ning turu ootus $1.35. Seega resotranide ja poearvete pealt on inimesed kokku hoidmas, kuid oma lemmiksöökide peale – friikartulid, burgerid, pitsad – on ameeriklased jätkuvalt aplad raha kulutama. Rõhutaksin siinkohal, et ettevõte ei ületanud tugevalt allatõmmatud prognoose, vaid et analüütikute ootus kvartali 40-42 sendilise EPSi osas on püsinud juba viimased 3 kuud.

    PZZA kaupleb ca 14x 2009. aasta kasumit, mis pole äri stabiilsust arvestades üleliia kallis näitaja. Konkurent Domino Pizza (DPZ), kes teeb minu maitse järgi Ameerika parimaid pitsasid, kaupleb ca 8.5x 2009. aasta kasumit, kuid seda ülisuure võlakoormuse tõttu. 

  • USA aktsiaturud on enne päeva algust väikeses miinuses. S&P500 -0.5% @ 765 punkti ning Nasdaq100 -0.2% @1161 punkti. Nafta on 1% jagu plussis $40.3 peal.

    Saksamaa DAX +0.37%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.64%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.89%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.09%

    Venemaa MICEX +1.96%

    Poola WIG +2.31%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.65%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.61%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.27%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.61%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.17%

    Tai Set 50 +0.68%

    India Sensex 30 +0.91%

  • Hostage to Details
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/25/2009 7:46 AM EST

    Speeches are not magic, and there is no great speech without great policy.
    -- Peggy Noonan

    President Obama gave a good speech last night. He attempted to brighten the mood and talked about how we are not a nation of quitters. We needed a little respite from the doom and gloom, but there wasn't any new economic policy disclosed. We already know what the Obama position is on the stimulus and mortgage bills, and another sales pitch about their benefits doesn't do much to excite skeptical investors.

    What investors are still waiting for are details about a bank bailout plan. There was little mention of that last night other than the usual rhetoric about greedy folks on Wall Street and making banks pay.

    So that leaves us waiting for another announcement from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. It was Geithner's disastrous non-announcement "announcement" a couple of weeks ago that triggered a further leg down in the market. Since then we have had a number of rumors and denials about what might be done. While "nationalization" is apparently a word that is not going to be used, having the government taking very large ownership stakes and telling management what they have to do is apparently OK.

    Until we hear from Geithner again, the market is stuck in limbo. The Obama speech is largely irrelevant. It is banks that are the focus, and we still have no clarity there. I suspect we will rally for a bit once we finally do see some news, but the way this has been handled has undermined a lot of the buying support the market might have provided if it had been a strong and decisive decision rather than a slow, rumor-infested rollout.

    Technically the indices are offering us little. We had a decent oversold bounce yesterday that helped us recover most of Monday's losses, but the long- and shorter-term trends are still down. We have room for a further bounce, but we are likely held hostage to a Geithner announcement at this point.

    One of these days we will be able to trade stocks again rather than politics and news announcements, but it doesn't look like today is going to be the day.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up in reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DLM +9.2%, QCOR +7.4% (light volume), KBR +5.3%, RRC +4.5%, CBI +4.5%, ADS +2.7% (light volume), DLTR +1.6%... Other news: CQB +11.6% (discloses information about its continued compliance with the financial maintenance covenants; also upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T Capital Mkts), CYTX +8.4% (says adipose-derived stem and regenerative cells prevent mortality and reduce kidney damage in preclinical study), F +7.5% (announces that compensation for Chairman Bill Ford and CEO Alan Mulally will be cut by one-third for 2009 and 2010- CNBC), MF +3.9% (announces cash tender offer for outstanding convertible Senior Notes), HRL +3.3% (to be added to S&P 500), VTR +3.1% (to be added to S&P 500), FWLT +3.0% (modestly rebounding from yesterday's 15%+drop), C +2.3% (Citi may add Japan investment bank to sale: Reports - Reuters), HON +1.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: LOGI +2.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus based on valuation), T +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), FCX +2.2% (tgt upped to $50 at Credit Suisse).
  • Huvitav tähelepanek GE kohta:

    Hilliard Lyons says GE's stock price has fallen to levels not seen since the mid '90s. That the shares are down in a declining stock market is understandable. That GE is trading at close to a 40% discount to the S&P 500 is difficult to explain. Firm feels the stock price reflects the drag of financial services, a lack of confidence in GE's ability to hit its earnings tgts, and concerns about the dividend. Deterioration in GE Capital's business or further capital injection could strain cash flow and make it difficult to sustain the dividend. Still, GE seems to be trading for less than the estimated value of its industrial assets. GE's industrial units such as power systems, aircraft engines, health care equipment, locomotives, and others along with associated service businesses could earn about $1.00 in '09.

    Kuigi olime GE suhteliselt negatiivsed, siis turg on olnud veelgi kriitilisem. Igal juhul oodatakse suurt dividendide kärpimist koos kasumi tugeva langusega. GE aktsia -3.6%.

  • Olemasolevate müük alla ootuste:

    January Existing Home Sales 4.49 mln vs 4.79 mln, -5.3% m/m
  • Cost to insure U.S. debt via the CDS market is hitting record levels, now around 100 bps - CNBC

    Vot see on küll päris naeruväärne.. et kui USA defauldib, siis mingi CDS turg maksab asja kinni? :D
  • 19. veebruari börsipäeva foorumis tõin USA 5-aasta CDSid euris välja. Link siin. Augustis oli ca 17 bps, täna siis 100 bps - ohjeldamatu riigivõla suurendamine siinkohal põhjuseks.

  • Citigroup (C): Bernanke says don't plan anything like nationalization for Citi
    Bernanke jälle turgu üles rääkimas.
  • Seletage mulle lollile ära, et mismoodi see USA täpselt default'ib?

    Halvemal juhul on lihtsalt võla võtmise ja võla tagasimaksmise vahel toimunud surnud presidentide piltidega paberite ostujõus mõningad muutused.
  • Fed Chairman Bernanke says if the uptick rule had been in effect it might have had some benefit; says the SEC is looking at that, and will have to make a determination of whether it would be beneficial to restore it.
  • ja miks riigivõlakirjad ikka nii madala tootlusega on, kui defaulti risk niipalju tõusnud?

  • Kas GILD fondide probleemid võivad kuidagi ka LHV puudutama?
  • yanek, sest kõikide teiste riikide ja erinevate varaklasside riskid on veel rohkem tõusnud.
  • Küll puudutab LHV-d ka, kui Pealtnägija varsti ühte oma saadet nii alustab: "LHV-d räsib järjekordne skandaal. Endised LHV nupumehed lasid tuulde kümnete Eesti tuntud ja edukate ärimeeste investeeringud."
  • äkki annad vastuse Bernanke moodi, tänases olukorras nt täna ei saanud ühe tehigud teostada läbi ühe maakleri (teises pangas) ja kaotasin cirka 10000$, ilmselt pean ära minema sealt, aga ei tea mida edasi, kui maailmas pankrotistuvad ja valetavad suuremate pankade juhid mida saaks teiste poolt oodata. Lisaks sellele pean veel ühe häkkeri asja ka meenutada LHV-ga seoses. Sorry :)

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