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Börsipäev 26. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Hoolimata tugevast päeva teisest poolest ei suutnud USA indeksid eilset päeva plussis lõpetada ning viimase poole tunni jooksul müüdi Dow Jones 1.1% miinusesse. Ühtlasi tähendab see, et Dow Jonesi indeks on aasta algusest kukkunud 17% ning 2. jaanuaril tehtud selle aasta tipust 19.5%. S&P 500 on aasta algusest -15% ja Nasdaq -10%.
  • Täna on tulemas päris palju makroinfot. Tund enne USA turgude avanemist teatatakse jaanuarikuu kestvuskaupade muutus (ootus -2.5%, eelmise kuu näit oli -2.6% ning ilma transpordita oodatakse -2.2% vs eelmise kuu -3.6%), 21. veebruariga lõppenud nädala esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate number (ootus 625 000 vs eelmise nädala 627 000) ning kell 17.00 Eesti aja järgi tehakse teatavaks uute majade jaanuarikuu müüginumbrid (ootus 324 000 vs detsembri 331 000).
  • UBS sai uue tegevjuhi, ameti võttis vastu Credit Suisse'i endine juht Oswald Gruebel.
  • Prechter: "Sulgege praegu oma lühikesed positsioonid... kuid pikemas perspektiivis peaks karuturg kestma veel vähemalt kaks aastat". Video ise siin. Meedia vist peale negatiivsuse muud ei kajastagi enam.

  • Nimetagem ühe põhjuse, miks võiks USA teistest arenenud maailma riikidest majanduslangusest kiiremini välja tulla?!

    Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama’s first budget request would provide for as much as $750 billion in new aid to the financial industry, as well as for an overhaul of the U.S. health-care system and a program to cut carbon-dioxide emissions. The spending blueprint, being sent to Congress today, anticipates the government will run a deficit totaling $1.75 trillion in the year ending Sept. 30, equivalent to about 12 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. Obama has promised to cut the shortfall -- the biggest since World War II -- in half by the end of his first term.

    Majanduse üüratu stimuleerimine ja 12%line defitsiit... euro-ala riikidel on teadupärast maksimaalseks lubatud määraks 3%line defitsiit.
  • Eila kusagil uudistes Padar rääkis kuidas Euroopa Liit planeerib kulutada täiendavalt 5 miljardit eurot majanduse elavdamiseks. Ma alguses mõtlesin, et see on summa mis Eesti saab :-)
  • January Durable Goods -5.2% vs -2.5% consensus, prior revised to -4.6% from -3.0%
    Jan Durable Goods ex-transportation -2.5% vs -2.2% consensus. Prior revised to -5.5% from -3.6%.
    Initial Claims 667K vs 625K consensus, prior revised to 631K from 627K
  • Kas täna üritatakse window dressingut teha? Veebruarikuu viimased kauplemispäevad täna-homme.
  • USA alustab päeva vägagi optimistlikes meeleoludes ja seda hoolimata oluliselt koledamatest initial claimsi numbritest. Täna ollakse teist korda lühikese aja jooksul negatiivseid uudiseid maha raputamas (teisipäeval ralliti consumer confidence 25 punktilisest näidust hoolimata). S&P500 +1.6% $ 774 punkti, Nasdaq100 +1.2% @ 1168 ning nafta +3.9% @ $44.1.

    Saksamaa DAX +2.24%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.45%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.59%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +3.16%

    Venemaa MICEX +4.44%

    Poola WIG +0.33%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.04%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.85%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3.86%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -5.63%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.95%

    Tai Set 50 -0.51%

    India Sensex 30 +0.59%

  • Demonizing Wall Street Won't Solve Anything
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/26/2009 8:11 AM EST

    Ninety percent of politics is deciding whom to blame.
    -- Meg Greenfield

    The market was heading for a positive close late on Wednesday when President Obama made comments that "the financial crisis was not inevitable." He blamed Wall Street and lack of government regulation for the problems, and that helped the market dip back into the red and close poorly.

    Certainly Wall Street and lack of regulations contributed to our economic woes, but there are thousands of contributing factors. This crisis wouldn't be so hard to solve if the roots weren't in so many different places. Unfortunately, Wall Street is a very easy villain, and politicians love to generalize.

    The rhetoric makes it sound like anyone who ever traded a stock or has any connection to the securities industry is to blame. We are all evil, greedy speculators. Instead of focusing blame on the small group of banking executives who made a series of terrible decisions, the little guy who tries to make a few dollars in the market suffers the fallout from this zeal to point fingers and place blame.

    Politicians tend to use blunt populist approaches to problems -- because it works -- but in this case, by demonizing all of Wall Street, they undermine confidence in the market. They continue to be applauded loudly every time they talk about Wall Street greed and private planes, so they really don't care that the vast majority of people involved in the market are some of the hardest-hit victims of this economic crisis.

    Perhaps the constant negative reaction of the stock market to every recent comment about the economic crisis will eventual convey the message that we need a healthy-acting market to help restore confidence. The White House probably doesn't see its core constituency as investors. We need the administration to consider the investor class more and focus less on the view that all of Wall Street is overpaid fat cats.

    We need a change of attitude about Wall Street and the stock market, but I don't think it is going to happen for a while. Wall Street is just too easy of a target, and one thing you can always count on out of Washington is gross generalization when a villain is in the crosshairs.

    I believe that the stock market and much of Wall Street still provides some of the best opportunities for the average person to make money. We need to stand up for what we as traders do and help to restore confidence in the process that offers us such great opportunities. Yes, it is very tough out there, but we can't allow everything associated with the stock market to be demonized.

    We have better action this morning on no particular news. We have more details on the Obama administration's taxing and spending programs, and the details about the bank bailout plan from late yesterday are being digested. Weekly unemployment is coming up, and it should be a hefty number.

    The bulls have been trying to put together some better upside momentum but have been uncertain, and the results have been quite choppy. Technically we have room for some further upside, but the buyers have all been short term lately, and I don't expect them to be less aggressive with their flipping when they have a chance.
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    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ARUN +11.6%, AZ +11.1%, GVA +10.8%, FLR +10.8%, FLS +7.3%, TEF +5.6% (light volume), OCR +5.3% (light volume), GNK +4.6%, CIR +4.1% (light volume), NTES +3.2%, TYL +2.6% (light volume)... Select financial names trading higher boosted by overseas strength following government plan to help free up funds for lending: LYG +26.1%, AIG +23.9% (considers break-up in bid to stay afloat- FT.com), RBS +20.2% (RBS to restructure in wake of record loss - WSJ), FITB +16.0%, ING +13.3%, UBS +11.3% (appoints Oswald Grubel as Group Chief Executive Officer), CS +11.2%, AEG +9.5%, BCS +9.4%, PUK +8.5%, WFC +7.5%, SNV +6.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan), HIG +5.8%, RF +5.8%, HBC +5.7%, ZION +5.5%, MBI +5.2%, KEY +5.2%, C +5.2% (Citi confronts global fallout as U.S. nears deal on stake - WSJ), USB +4.9%, CIT +4.8%, STT +4.8%, XL +4.5%, JPM +4.5% (in presentation slides says 1Q09 QTD results are solidly profitable; outlook is roughly in line with Analyst expectations), STI +4.4%, MS +3.4%, ABK +3.3%, BAC +3.3% (BofA weighs sale of ex-Merrill unit - WSJ), GS +2.3%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: BBL +4.7%, RTP +4.2%, BHP +3.1%, MT +2.9%... Other news: DRYS +12.3% (announces it has reached final agreement with Nordea Bank for a covenant waiver on the $800 mln primelead facility), PCX +10.3% (mentioned positively in Weekday Trader - Barron's Online), WFT +3.1% (redomesticated to Switzerland after the close)... Analyst comments: LVS +11.1% (initiated with Outperform at Bernstein), PHG +4.3% (upgraded to Neutral at HSBC), DLTR +3.4% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), CBY +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping downIn reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TEG -22.2%, PSYS -19.4%, DCI -10.6%, MIC -9.9% (light volume), NIHD -9.6%, PXP -9.5%, FRO -6.2%, ANSS -5.8%, GM -5.1%, COGT -4.7%, TS -3.8%, EP -2.5%, CRM -2.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Roth Capital)... Select gold/silver related names pulling back: SLW -2.4%, PAAS -2.3%, GOLD -2.2%, KGC -1.9%, AEM -1.7%, GG -1.4%, ABX -1.3%, AUY -1.2%... Other news: MDVN -5.5% (Announces New Positive Efficacy Data From Phase 1-2 Trial of MDV3100 in Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Patients; also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Roth Capital), IBN -2.8% (still checking), CHL -1.9% (publishes operating statistics for January 2009 - ChinaTechNews.com), BP -2.0% and TOT -1.6% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: AIB -4.9% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), KWK -3.8% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies).
  • January New Home Sales 309K vs 324K consensus, -10.2% m/m
  • Eks ta nii ole ikka et heade uudiste peale müüakse ja vastupidi
  • Päeva olulisim majandussündmus Eesti jaoks on Merkeli põgus strateegianihe.
    WRAPUP 1-EU defends efforts on E.Europe as some push for more
    UPDATE 2-Euro states to maintain solidarity in crisis-Merkel

    Ees on EU ja G20 summitid. Sealt võib tulla mingi toetav ja positiivne otsus.
  • FDIC reports at year-end, 252 insured institutions with combined assets of $159 bln were on the FDIC’s “Problem List”, up from 171 in Q3
  • Viimastel päevadel on kuidagi "ära pööranud": Down alla, nafta üles? Mida see peaks tähendama?- viimastel aegadel on need suht sünkroonis liikunud.
  • varud vähenevad, majandus ikka suht pekkis. tundub loogiline?
  • Dell prelim $0.18 vs $0.26 First Call consensus; revs $13.43 bln vs $14.18 bln First Call consensus
    Esimene reageering siiski +2% üles.
  • Turul on hirmu tunda, alguses ostetakse ja siis vaja kähku maha müüa. Keegi ei julge midagi pikemalt käes hoida.
    Pakun et varsti on suund ülespoole.
  • Delli-l kerge mõtlemisaja pärast siiski juba terve päeva väldanud müügisurve tagasi ja aktsia -3% languses $8.10 tasemel.
  • kuskilt on raha turule juurde tulemas ? :)))

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