LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 12. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Arvestades viimase pooleteise aasta jooksul aktsiaturgudel valitsenud meeleolusid, on uudised ülevõttudest igati positiivne nähtus. Eriti huvitavaks läheb asi aga siis, kui ülevõtuhinda hakatakse kergitama.

    Kui eelmine nädal pakkus Roche Genentechi (DNA) eest $93, siis nüüd liigutati see ülespoole $95 peale.

    Kokku tehingu väärtuseks $47 miljardit, mis usutavasti lõpetab 7.5 kuud kestnud DNA ülevõtmise saaga Roche'i poolt.

  • Buffett on üle elanud mitmeid majandustsükleid ja seetõttu ei heiduta teda ka senised tagasilöögid GSi, GE või COPiga. Mees on jätkamas oma otsinguid odavate ülevõtukandidaatide osas USAst. 

  • Milline on LHV meeskonna nägemus/arvamus tänasest USA seadusandjate arutelust "mark to market" põhimõtte ajutisest loobumisest?
  • marantz, mark to marketi kaotamise asemel pooldaksin pigem 2007. aastal tühistatud uptick reegli taaskehtestamist. Kuid ega ükski reegel või põhimõte turgu iseenesest pikaajaliselt üles ei lükka. Seda näitas juba lühikeseks müümise ajutise keelu eksperiment...

    Mark to marketi ajutise peatamise korral võiksid kõige tugevamini rallida muidugi finantssektori aktsiad.

    Üks video mark to market teemal on siin. 

  • kui uskuda ühte subjektiivset arvutust Portfolio.com lehel, siis KBW pangandusindeksi 12 suurima finantsasutuse varade maht küündib 8.46 triljoni dollarini, sealjuures on sellest 29% hinnatud turuhindade alusel. General Electric teatas näiteks eelmisel nädalal, et tütarfirma Electric Capital Corp varadest on hinnatud mark-to-market reeglite alusel kõigest 2%. Seega jätkusuutlikkuse küsimus jääb endiselt õhku rippuma.
  • February Retail Sales -0.1% vs -0.5% consensus, prior revised to +1.8% from +1.0%
    February Retail Sales, ex auto +0.7% vs -0.1% consensus, prior revised to +1.6% from +0.9%
    Initial Claims 654K vs 644K consensus, prior revised to 645K from 639K
  • Tekitasin Luterma Aktsiale ostuääre. :P Teeks nüüd nii, et keegi müüb mulle selle aktsia enne sulgemist @0,64 ja mina müün talle selle homme enne sulgemist @0,55 tagasi jne. Tahaks näha, kaugele nii jõuda annab.
  • Ehk siis inimesed jäävad tööta, aga ikka ostavad? :-p
  • PeaLik, FI tuleb sulle sellise asja eest ata-ata tegema.
  • huvitav kas Oliveril on Luterma aktsiad tagatiseks ka kusagil? et pank teeb talle ata-ata kui hind langeb alla teatud piiri?
  • Oliveri kahjud pole sellega kaugeltki lõppenud. Värske ettevõtte omanikeringi kuuluva isikuna lähen söön nüüd aktsionäride üldkoosolekul küpsisekausi kah tühjaks.
  • aja jalad harki ja küsi rosinakomme kahh :))
  • GE General Electric cut by S&P to AA+ - Bloomberg
  • Nafta jätkab oma volatiilset liikumist. Jõudnud juba $50 alla, sulguti eile $42.5 juures. Täna +2% @ $43.3.

    Saksamaa DAX -1.21%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.39%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.67%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.86%

    Venemaa MICEX -2.94%

    Poola WIG -1.18%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.41%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.59%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.24%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.24%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.23%

    Tai Set 50 +0.14%

    India Sensex 30 +2.25%

  • Let's See Some Follow-Through
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/12/2009 8:35 AM EDT

    We are judged by what we finish, not what we start.
    --James Koford

    After two positive days in a row for the market for the first time since early February, there was no shortage of folks willing to declare that the worst is over and that a sustained uptrend is about the begin. I certainly hope they are correct. The market is badly in need of upside in order to restore some confidence and to remind people that the stock market isn't just a way to lose your retirement savings.

    The big question is whether we should start becoming excited about market prospects after one big reversal day and then a day of consolidation and churning. Is this an indication of good things to come?

    Although it is a good start, it is very early and isn't particularly compelling so far. We have had several instances of very big one-day gains that even had a little subsequent follow-through, like back on Oct. 13, when the S&P 500 was up 11.6%, but we did little the next day and then gave back the entire gain within a week or so. It tried again on Oct. 28 with a big gain of 10.79%. This time it managed upside over the next four to five days before rolling over and giving back the entire gain and more.

    The moral of the story is that one very strong day during a bear market does not make for a lasting turn. It is a process that is going to take time, and when too many folks are too fast to embrace the idea that the worst is over, the greater the likelihood that there is going to be some disappointment.

    My approach is to simply monitor the action very closely and to see if we start seeing some better charts develop. They won't develop in just two days, so there is no reason to move too quickly. We have been in a bear market for over a year, and it is not reasonable for us to expect that to completely change in the matter of two days.

    I know that people would really prefer to hear declarations that the bottom is in and that things will only improve from here, but our job isn't to be fortune tellers. Our job is to make money, and to make money we don't just make sensationalistic guesses, we look for situations where we have the odds in our favor. At this point the odds are a coin flip when it comes to further upside. There is nothing here to suggest that further upside is going to come quickly and easily.

    I'd be much more optimistic if I were finding a lot of great individual stock setups, but it just isn't the case. We have many things with downtrends that lasted weeks that finally bounced for a day or two. That may turn into something promising, but in many cases it is a setup for a short entry rather than a promise of further upside momentum.

    We have some weakness to start the day as we await what should be another poor weekly unemployment report. Europe is weak with banks struggling, and Asia is seeing pressure from the automotive sector. There isn't a lot of news on the wires, but we do have Secretary Geithner appearing and hearings on mark-to-market accounting today.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MW +9.5% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), CLRT +8.1% (light volume), EBAY +3.6% (co confirmed guidance that was reported intraday at its analyst day)... M&A news: DNA +2.5% (Roche and Genentech reach agreement to merge)... Select drug related names showing strength: NVS +4.4%, SHPGY +1.9%... Other news: AXYS +5.7% (confirms it is evaluating possible sale), STP +2.9% (Suntech Power and 3rd Rock announce strategic alliance to develop 7.2 MW of solar projects in the US), SLW +2.1% (Silverstone Resources to be acquired by Silver Wheaton), TSM +2.0% and THS +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AEM +1.7% (reports investment in AuEx Ventures)... Analyst comments: JCI +2.4% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: STLD -18.1%, IMAX -13.2%, LMIA -11.6% (light volume), JAS -7.6%, PLL -7.4%, HOTT -1.6%... M&A news: GILD -3.5% (CV Therapeutics to be acquired by Gilead for $20/share)... Select financials showing weakness: BCS -7.5%, LYG -4.5%, WFC -3.5%, UBS -3.5%... Select iron/steel related names trading lower following STLD guidance: X -4.6%, AKS -3.4%, NUE -1.2%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AAUK -6.9%, MT -6.3%, BBL -6.3%, BHP -5.2%, RTP -3.4%, RIO -2.9%, GOLD -1.2%... Select oil/gas related names trading lower with weakness in crude: TOT -2.4%, STO -1.4%... Select ag related names pulling back: SYT -4.3%, POT -3.1%, AGU -2.8%, MOS -2.8%, MON -1.5%... Select drybulk shipping names showing weakness: NAT -7.5%, PRGN -6.7%, DRYS -5.5%... Other news: VIP -5.0% (Telenor's VIP shares arrested in Russia - DJ)... Analyst comments: SPWRA -8.4% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), XOMA -6.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Merriman), ETFC -4.4% (initiated with Sell at Citigroup), AMT -2.4% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley).
  • Korraks olid nii Dow, S&P500 kui Nasdaq võrdselt -0,21% all ... on see nüüd hea või halb enne? :)
  • Igaljuhul on senine kauplemine olnud väga ilus - jaemüüginumbrid kardetust paremad, GE saab downgrade'i ja aktsia kaupleb 9% plussis, turg protsendi plussis. Ja seda S&P500 pärast 9%list tõusu 670 punkti pealt loetud päevad tagasi.
  • Nafta rallib. Opec utles et vahendavad tootmist.
  • Sellise ralli järel muutuvad pensioni- ja aktsiafondide juhid närviliseks. Tõenäoliselt ollakse aktsiaturu ralliks halvasti valmistunud, turult eemal oleva rekordilise rahahulga graafikuid olen siin foorumeis varemgi näidanud ning fondijuhtide hirm turust kehvemini performima hakata võib ülespoole sõitu iseenesest toitma hakata.
  • Nafta : ralli
    Stokk : ralli
    Kuld : ralli

    Oleks veel dollar nüüd ka rallinud, siis teeks väikse peo.

    Samas võiks hetkeks mõelda, et mis siis nüüd paremaks on läinud täpselt? Kas finantssüsteem on stabiliseeritud? Kas deleveraging on läbi? Parim stsenaarium siit oleks S&P liikumine 870 juurde. Maailm ei ole kindlasti veel nende paari päevaga päästetud ning toimunule saab kenasti panna diagnoosi : tehniline põrge.

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