Börsipäev 20. märts
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Peale Fedi teadet riigivõlakirjade ostmisest on dollari langus hoogu juurde saanud. Kuigi kukkumine on olnud väga järsk - nädala arvestuses suurim alates euro loomisest - arvatakse turul, et negatiivsus võiks jätkuda. Morgan Stanley on soovitanud dollarit müüa ning eurot osta, sihiks $1.45.
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Head algavat kevadet kõigile! Täna kell 13.44 saab kalendri järgi talv läbi.
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Täna majandusraporteid ei avalikustata, kuid tuletan meelde, et tegu märtsikuu kolmanda reede ehk optsioonireedega.
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FX headwind to turn tailwind? Prognoosid positiivse valuutaefekti tõttu paranevad?
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Ericsson (ERIC) kaupleb üle 6% miinuses peale hommikust Sony Ericssoni teadet, et majanduskriisi ning nõrga tarbija tõttu teenitakse esimeses kvartalis EUR 340-390 miljonit kahjumit. Marginaalid on langenud ning telefonide keskmine müügihind peaks kvartali jooksul langema EUR 120-ni. Ericsson avaldab tulemused 17. aprillil.
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Stefani, Tooli jt portfellid avalikustatud:
http://www.ap3.ee/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=461D1A72-0442-489E-BE45-120487430F94&ref=newsletter -
need pole ju saladuses olnudki kunagi... :)
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to vanaema
http://statistics.e-register.ee/shlist/?lang=et
saad rohkem saladusi teada :) -
Kiire populaarsusstatistika selle tabeli põhjal. Erilise üllatusi pole, kui ehk Tallinki populaarsus välja jätta. Väärtpaber Väärtus Omanikke Eesti Telekom 68921006 35 Arco 41177205 13 Tallink 16813695 28 Kalev 13368206 5 Norma 9705676 15 Tallinna Vesi 8842229 14 Baltika 8692400 14 Merko 6531908 20 Harju Elekter 5163633 8 Eesti Ehitus 5091574 12 Tallinna Kaubamaja 4662616 14 Olympic 2577055 12 Järvevana 1053885 16 Ekspress Grupp 299188 9 Viisnurk 73431 2 Silvano Fashion Group 36533 4 Trigon 18632 1 -
Oops!
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KLF : White Room.
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Saksamaa DAX +0.27%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.52%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.29%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.67%
Venemaa MICEX +0.42%
Poola WIG +0.74%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.26%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.68%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.75%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.72%
Tai Set 50 +0.57%
India Sensex 30 -0.39%
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Now Comes the Work
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/20/2009 8:05 AM EDT
If the power to do hard work is not a skill, it's the best possible substitute for it.
-- James A. Garfield
The market has seen some dramatic action, but now it's time for the hard work. Over the past 10 days or so, a bounce in banks pulled the market back from a swirling drain of negativity and then the Fed surprised us with a move to buy Treasury debt. Out of the chaos we have many loud calls yet again that the worst is over and that the market should continue to climb higher. Recovering from the worst bear market in our lifetimes isn't going to be that easy.
The sharp bounce we have enjoyed is certainly a good way to begin a major market turn and the government is definitely doing a tremendous job of pumping liquidity into the economy, but the excitement is premature. We should expect a market that was acting as poorly as this one was in the first few months of the year to bounce. The Fed even helped with an extra dose of excitement on Wednesday, but a "V"-shaped bounce is just the potential beginning of the foundation we need for a healthier market.
What we have to watch for now is for leadership to develop and for the charts of individual stocks to set up better. The recent action has not been particularly conducive to giving us buyable charts with good support. In fact, many stocks have made lower-volume moves right into overhead resistance, which is more an invitation to sell than to buy.
The real key to a better market is going to be leadership. While it was banks that led us off the recent low, we had retailers and technology stocks jump in as market players looked for other groups to buy. Energy, steel, coal and gold joined in on the upside after the Fed announcement stoked up talk of inflation.
Ideally, what the market should do at this point is pull back and rest and then be led higher by a key group. That key group should inspire confidence and help to drag along other sectors to the upside. In the process, we should see a return to individual stock-picking rather than a focus on governmental action and macro-economic moves when all stocks tend to move as a group.
The dip-buyers have been very quick to jump in so far, and that's a good sign, but they had oversold conditions and positive news from the government to help them out. The better test of their resolve will come as things settle back down and we start to focus on first-quarter earnings.
It is a particularly good time to stay open-minded. You can always find good arguments for either side in the market, but at this point we have to ignore the noise and focus on the price action more so than usual.
I will be traveling over the next few days, doing my part to help stimulate the economy. I'll post when I can and hopefully I'll be back at the trading turret quickly.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Select financial names showing strength: C +9.2% (announces senior management changes; Gary Crittenden, previously CFO, has been named Chairman of Citi Holdings; also clarifies media reports about office consolidation), PUK +9.0%, LYG +7.6%, RBS +5.1%, UBS +4.8%, CS +3.7%, MS +3.1% (upgraded to Buy at Argus; tgt $35)... Select metals/mining names trading higher: AAUK +3.6%, RTP +2.3%, RIO +2.0%... Other news: FEED +4.7% (still checking), TS +3.4% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: AMMD +5.8% (initiated with a Buy at Brean Murray; tgt $14), EXPE +4.7% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), F +3.6% (initiated with Buy at UBS), CE +2.7% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), JNJ +1.9% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), MRK +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen & Co).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: XRX -10.7%, ERIC -9.2% (also downgraded to Sell at RBS), BBI -5.6%, APD -3.2%... Select gold/silver names showing weakness: AU -4.5%, SLW -3.9%, GFI -2.1%, AUY -1.0%... Other news: HBC -8.1% (The Guardian reports HSBC shares going ex-rights after yesterday's shareholder approval for its 12.5 bln pound cash call), SPG -7.8% (announces concurrent offerings of ~15,000,000 shares of common stock and ~$500 mln principal amount of senior notes due 2019), CHL -6.1% (fell overseas for a second session after its earnings miss on Thursday), DRYS -4.7% (still checking), MGM -4.7% (MGM Mirage rating cut to 'CCC' from 'B-' at S&P; Outlook Negative), NOK -4.4% (confirms job cuts - ChinaTechNews.com), LNC -3.1% (Moody's downgrades Lincoln National; ratings remain on review for possible downgrade), FLR -2.1% (announces cancelation of Kuwaiti refinery contract)... Analyst comments: FMS -7.0% (BofA/Merrill downgrades to Neutral from Buy), CBT -6.2% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), EGLE -5.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), AN -4.2% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), HOT -3.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Friedman Billings), DT -2.8% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse). -
Citi (C) on tänu muudatustele juhtkonnas üks väheseid finantssektori aktsiaid, mis suudab plussis püsida. Turg on võrreldes eelmiste päevadega natuke rahunenud, kaubeldakse üsna kitsas koridoris.
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Tänavail veri. Siin nii armsalt vagaseks kõik jäänud....
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Kahe nädalaga 12% plussi. Kus siin see veri on?
(Põnevaks võib minna 2. aprilli kanti, kus mõned tegelased arvavad, et lüüakse terve maailm pahviks mingite ideedega maailma (manjanduse) parandamiseks. Ise ma julgen selles sügavalt kahelda.) -
Kui toimuks G20 miinus Euroopa, siis ehk oleks rohkem lootust. :)
