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Börsipäev 7. aprill

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  • Aasia turgudel möödus kauplemine õhukeses miinuses, kui Hiina ja India indeksitel õnnestus isegi kergesse plussi ronida. Austraalia keskpank otsustas langetada baasintressi 0.25 protsendipunkti võrra rekordmadalale 3-le protsendile, olles eelmisel kohtumisel jätnud laenumäära muutmata. Analüütikud aga olid suures osas prognoosinud samaks jätmist. Jaapani keskpankurid otsustasid jätakta 0.1%-lise määraga, leevendade seejuures tagatisnõudeid väljastatavatele laenudele. Hiljutine Tankani raport indikeeris nimelt, et kohalike ettevõtete jaoks on finantseerimine jätkuvalt keerulisemaks muutunud.

    Euroopa turud avanesid poole protsendises plussis
  • Marc Faber, kes suutis üsna täpselt ajastada ostusoovituse enne 70 aasta järsimat rallit, ootab nüüd S&P 500 indeksi 5-10%-list korrektsiooni, et pärast juulit saaks ülespoole liikumine taas jätakata. Panuseid julgeb ta ise teha ka mõnedele finantstööstuse aktsiatele. Heaks kandidaadiks nimetab Faber näiteks Citigroupi, mis võiks vabalt põrgata praeguselt 2.7 dollarilt 5-le dollarile. 

    Video antud intervjuust leiab siit.  

  • Citigroup võib oma praeguselt 2.70 ka kukkuda alla 1-dollari
  • Hommik on USA turgudel täna punane - S&P500 indeks on langenud eilsest päevasisesest põhjast hetkel madalamale ning -1.6%ga kaubeldakse 817 punkti peal. Nafta -1.8% @ $50.1 barrelist.
  • Majandusraportite poolest on terve see nädal USAs võrdlemisi vaikne, kuid see-eest algab täna pärast turu sulgemist koos Alcoa (AA) tulemuste avaldamisega ametlikult ka 1. kvartali tulemuste teatamise hooaeg. EPSi oodatakse ettevõttelt -$0.57 ning müügitulu ca $4.1 miljardit. Mõlema näitaja puhul on viimastel nädalatel ametlikke ootusi julgelt allapoole tõmmatud.
  • Ja uptick rule'i taaskehtestamisest - lausa 4 erinevat võimalust:

    Reuters.com reports U.S. securities regulators will consider about 4 proposals to restrict short selling, a type of investing blamed for accelerating the severe downturn in financial services stocks. Proposals the SEC will consider at its Wednesday meeting include the restoration of the "uptick rule," which allowed short sales -- a bet that a stock's price will fall -- only when the last sale price was higher than the previous price, the chief of the SEC said. "We are going to put forward about four different proposals, and one of them does include the original (uptick rule)," SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro told reporters. "There are different modified versions because the markets have changed a lot, even since 2007." Schapiro said other proposals on the table include a so-called "bid test" and a "circuit breaker." One source familiar with the matter said the SEC bid test proposal would only allow shorting at a price above the highest available bid. The SEC also is crafting two circuit breaker proposals: One would temporarily halt short sales of a stock if the stock has already fallen by a certain percentage, the source said. The other would trigger the application of an uptick rule or bid test after the price of a stock experienced a decline by a certain percentage, such as 10%, the source said.
  • Sekkume turule, keerame turu untsu. Tore.
  • Aasia turgudest olid tugevaimad täna Lõuna-Korea, Pakistan ja Hiina. Euroopa ja USA punases.

    Saksamaa DAX -1.18%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.46%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.69%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.29%

    Venemaa MICEX -1.26%

    Poola WIG -0.70%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.28%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.46%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.80%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.78%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.37%

    Tai Set 50 -0.88%

    India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud)

  • Harder Work Ahead
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/7/2009 8:14 AM EDT

    Never despair; but if you do, work on in despair.
    -- Edmund Burke

    After a monthlong rally, the market has recovered nicely each time it stumbled a little in the last couple days. On Friday it looked like some mild profit-taking would set in, but a last-hour rally took us out near the highs. Yesterday a negative report on banks from analyst Mike Mayo kept pressure on the market most of the day before another late-day rally cut the damage again.

    This relatively flat action is what we need to digest the big move from the March low, but the work to move this market will likely become harder in the days ahead. First, as the emotions over the recent bounce cool off, the performance anxiety that helped things to run will dissipate. It is when the market is running away that the panic buying ensues and drives us up even further.

    Second, if the market start to stall out in this area as it deals with the technical overhead from November and December, there will be some propensity to move back to the sidelines and wait to re-enter. Many of the folks who bought back in November through January are now getting back to even, while those who bought in March have some good gains to protect. If the market doesn't make further progress in the near term, the psychology will start to be more defensive and shift more toward selling.

    Third, earnings season starts today with Alcoa (AA) but really kicks off in earnest next week. Whether we have sufficiently low expectations has yet to be seen, but with stocks 20% to 25% or so off their lows, there is a greater likelihood of some "sell the news" pressure when the numbers do hit. A lot will depend on how the market acts the remainder of the week, but obviously there is some greater optimism at work, and that can cut both ways when we have earnings reports.

    Overall, the market continues to be in good technical shape, and the best thing that could happen is some churning or lower-volume pullbacks. Selling would move stock into stronger hands, but we don't want it to go too far and trigger technical breakdowns and some panic. The first area of support for the S&P 500 is around 810, and then the more important support is at 785-790. If we stay above that area we will be in pretty good shape.

    We have some selling on the open as overseas markets were a bit weak. The news flow is slow and there isn't much on the economic calendar. Look for trading to slow a bit in the next couple of days as market players look forward to a three-day weekend.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SPIL +7.4%, CSKI +6.2%, EAT +5.5%, BLUD +5.5%... Gold stocks showing modest strength on moderate gains in spot prices: IAG +5.3%, GFI +3.4%, AU +3.1%, HMY +2.6%, GOLD +1.4%... Analyst comments: ADBE +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CHTT -9.1%... European bank stocks showing weakness following Bernstein downgrade of British banks, other news: ING -8.5% (co isn't considering sale of German internet bank ING-DiBa - DJ), RBS -8.1% (RBS says UK government stake to rise to 70% - Reuters.com), LYG -7.9% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), DB -7.5%, BCS -6.2%... Other news: MT -6.7%, ACAS -6.2% (still checking for anything specific), AMAT -4.1% (Discloses amendments for previously announced sales agreements, reducing the production capacity to be supplied by AMAT)... Analyst comments: WMS -6.7% (downgraded to Sell at SMH Capital), NOK -5.8% (downgraded to Sell at WestLB).
  • ECB's Provopoulos says could proceed with purchase of corporate debt
  • AA Alcoa prelim ($0.59) vs ($0.57) First Call consensus; revs $4.15 bln vs $4.08 bln First Call consensus

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