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Börsipäev 13. aprill

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Goldman Sachs (GS) on väidetavalt kaalumas lisaemissiooni, et maksta tagasi riigilt võetud abisummad, et lõa otsast pääseda ja et saaks vabamate kätega tegutsema hakata. Aktsiahind on korralikult tõusnud, seega emissiooni korraldamine ja börsilt raha kaasamine on ettevõtte jaoks tõepoolest arvestatavaks variandiks muutunud:

  • Täna tulemas hulgaliselt makroraporteid - kell 15.30 teatatakse märtsikuu tootjahinnaindeks (tuumikosalt ootus +0.1% ning terviknäitajalt 0.0%) ja märtsikuu jaemüüginäitaja (ootus +0.3%, ilma autodeta +0.1%).
  • Goldmani secondaryst on nii palju räägitud, et suure üllatusena see küll ei tuleks.
  • Joel, äkki postitad siis juba GS, INTC tulemused ka täna ära ;)
  • DanelK,

    GSi tulemused 14. aprillil enne turgu ja INTC 14. aprillil pärast turgu - seega täna ei julge postitamist lubada : )
  • Joel, makro andmed siiski homme, täna täielik vaikus nii siinpool kui sealpool lompi.
  • Aitäh parandamast - tõepoolest nii ta on! Silmad mängisid õhtusel ajal vingerpussi...
  • Nagu LHV Pro valiku Gmarketi (GMKT) foorumis juba kirjutasin, siis kaua oodatud eBay-poolne suurosaluse ostmine ettevõttesse on jõudnud lõppfaasi. Hinnaks eeldatavasti $24.  Siinkohal tuleb rõhutada, et Interparki käest aktsiate ostmine ei tähenda veel, et eBay peaks aktsiaid ka turult kokku ostma hakkama sama hinnaga, kuid kahtlemata näitab tehing ettevõtte väga head väärtust.

  • Kui eelmise nädala viimasel kauplemispäeval langetas Wedbush Morgan Salesforce'i (CRM) aktsiate soovituse "müü" tasemele (hinnasiht jäeti $27), on täna UBS käitunud vastupidi. Aktsia müügisoovitus tõstetakse "osta" peale ning hinnasiht lajatatakse märtsi lõpu $21 pealt $44-ni.
  • FBRi tähelepanekud eelmise nädala staari Wells Fargo (WFC) tulemustele (Briefingu vahendusel):

    Firm encourages investors to demand better disclosures going forward, and it is their sincere hope that WFC will revisit its long-held practice of not holding live quarterly public conference calls. They caution investors not to get too excited about growth in the tangible common equity ratio until they know how much of the improvement was one-time in nature (and 3.1% tangible common equity is still too low). Announced earnings surprised on the upside, largely based on lower credit costs and net charge-offs, but WFC gave no details on delinquency trends or Wachovia's credit losses. 

  • Ning kes nuputab, et miks on Yahoo (YHOO) aktsia eelturul +5.5%, siis peamiseks põhjuseks uuenenud läbirääkimised Yahoo ja Microsofti vahel otsingu- ja reklaami partnerluse alal. Lisaks tasub meenutada, et seesama ülaltoodud eBay-poolne osaluse ostmine GMKT'is mõjutab samuti Yahood - nimelt Yahoo hoiab ca 10% GMKT'i aktsiatest.
  • Suntrust alandab Green Mountain Coffee Roastersi (GMCR) soovituse neutraalse peale, peamiseks põhjuseks kõrge valuatsioon. Ühtlasi kinnitas täna aktsiale müügisoovitust ka Stifel Nicolaus. Aktsia kaupleb ajaloolistel tippudel, jooksev P/E-suhe on 40, 2010. aasta oma üle 30. Ettevõte teatab tulemused aprilli lõpus ning need võiks vastu võtta pigem shordina. Eksimisruumi just palju pole ning ootuspärased tulemused turgu ei rahuldaks.
  • Citi alustab Goldmani (GS) katmist hinnasihiga $145 ja Morgan Stanley (MS) katmist sihiga $25. Ehk on juba peole hiljaks jäädud?
  • kumb siis täpselt hiljaks on jäänud? kas MS maailmalõpu kuulutamisega või Citi rallile?
  • Ise pidasin silmas Citi initi enne tulemusi pärast seda, kui GS on tõusnud $50 pealt $125le või MS $10 pealt $25le.
  • Kas seda head ja põhjalikku uute tulemuste tabelit ka seekord kuskil näha saab?
  • Euroopas on täna enamus börse suletud ning ka Aasias mõned pühade tõttu kinni. USA börs alustab kauplemispäeva ca 0.5% kuni 1%lises miinuses, nafta on 4% punases $50 peal.

    Saksamaa DAX N/A (börs suletud)

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 N/A (börs suletud)

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 N/A (börs suletud)

    Hispaania IBEX 35 N/A (börs suletud)

    Venemaa MICEX -0.13%

    Poola WIG N/A (börs suletud)

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.44%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng N/A (börs suletud)

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.85%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.32%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.83%

    Tai Set 50 N/A (börs suletud)

    India Sensex 30 +1.51%

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    M&A news: GMKT +38.0% (eBay has agreed to buy a controlling stake in Gmarket for $24/share), WLP +7.3% and ESRX +2.2% (Express Scripts announces definitive agreement to acquire WellPoint NextRx subsidiaries for $4.675 bln)... Select casino names showing strength: MGM +17.9% (Dubai World proposes solution to City Center funding problem - WSJ), LVS +6.5%, BYD +2.4%... Other news: DNDN 21.2% (surging on volume, check for catalyst), RRR +12.7% (RSC Holdings mentioned positively in Barron's), TCK +11.7% (still checking), APWR +6.0% (continued momentum following Thursday's earnings), YHOO +5.8% (Microsoft, Yahoo hold talks about partnership - WSJ), TTWO +5.6% (continued strength from Thursday's late surge), C +3.0% (Bundled sale of Nikko Citigroup, other Nikko cos likely, according to Kyodo - DJ), AXP +1.1% (American Express mentioned positively in Barron's)...

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WFR -11.0% (reaffirms Q1 revs, cuts gross margin guidance; also downgraded to Neutral at Piper Jaffray), SPW -8.6%, SUSQ -7.1%, TM -5.2% (light volume; Toyota Motor set to suffer second straight loss, according to report - DJ), BA -5.2% (adjusts 2010 twin-aisle airplan production plan, to reduce EPS by $0.38 in Q1; also downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Cowen), STX -3.8% (announces offering of $430 mln of senior secured second-priority notes), CVX -2.3% SNWL -2.1%... M&A news: SAY -2.6% (confirms Tech Mahindra to acquire majority interest)... Select financial related names pulling back: GNW -16.4% (will not participate in the U.S. Captial Purchase Program), BBT -3.8%, BCS -3.3% (Barclays is understood to be willing to examine offers for the whole of Barclays Global Investors - Times of London), PRU -3.3% (down in sympathy with GNW), USB -2.9%, UBS -2.8%, WFC -2.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette- based on valuation), MS -2.3% (initiated with a Hold at Citigroup), HIG -2.1%, BK -1.9%, JPM -1.3%, GS -1.1% (Goldman seeks new stock sale - WSJ)...Select oil/gas names ticking lower with weakness in crude and disappointing CVX guidance: MRO -2.0%, SLB -1.7%, XOM -1.0%... Other news: GM -12.7% (GM's plan for brief stay in bankruptcy faces hurdle - WSJ ; also its revolving credit facility issue rating lowered to 'CCC-' at S&P on revised recovery estimate), TRE -9.9% (Tanzanian Royalty Chairman to provide $1.5 mln private placement; also Barron's interviews Tanzanian Royalty CEO), TXT -4.8% (down in sympathy with BA), HSIC -2.3% (Cramer makes negative comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: PH -5.4% (ticking lower in early trade; hearing added to Sell list at tier 1 firm), EBAY -3.3% (downgraded to Sell at Collins Stewart), COF -3.2% (downgraded to Underperform at Calyon), QSII -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer), WYNN -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer), GLW -2.3% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer).

  • NLFPS, kui mõtled tulemuste hooaja vahendamist tabelite kaudu, mida oleme LHVs ikka teinud, siis need on tulemas jah. Kui see nädal on veel vähe nimesid, siis tõeline tulemustesadu hakkab pihta järgmisel nädalal.
  • Goldman Sachsi tulemuste preview Briefingust:

    Goldman Sachs (GS) kicks off a highly anticipated earnings season for the financial sector tomorrow morning as investors await Q1 results, TARP commentary, Stress Test observations, and a Y09/10 outlook from the Wall Street titan. The primary focus has moved from balance sheet to income statement this quarter. GS will attempt to recover from its first quarterly loss as a public company in Q4 and investors hope for a palatable outlook for the remainder of 2009 that will show some signs of a light at the end of the tunnel. It is worth mentioning that GS (as well as Morgan Stanley -- MS), changed reporting periods. In order to facilitate the change in time frame, both will be reporting a ‘stub' period for the month of December (will be two press releases so be aware).

    For Q1 GS is expected to show some recovery from its ‘kitchen-sink' quarter as trading gains and strength in fixed income products helped by wider bid/ask spreads (a $700 mln gain in Q4) and less competition should be able to offset lower investment banking fees and reduced leverage. In addition, the chance of gains in private equity investments could offset write-downs in other areas of the portfolio. Points of interest on the call: 1) 2009/2010 Outlook; 2) Stress Test- results/insight (likely won't elaborate); 3) TARP Payback- GS has said that it would pay back the $10 bln in TARP funds it received. The impact from this would be to drop Tier 1 ratio to 13.1% from the 15.6% reported in Q4; 4) Potential Liquidity raise- GS has stated that they do not intend to raise any more capital, but given the recent run up in its stock price there are some who believe the co may rethink this step, especially if it is looking to pay back TARP funds quickly. Also co is believed to be interested in purchasing Barclay's iShares which would provide another reason to raise capital; 5) Potential ICBC holding sale- Some believe the co may look to unload its holdings in the Chinese bank in order to raise liquidity. This question will be asked in Q&A; 6) Vintage Fund V- fund announced today by GS, investors will look for some color surrounding the intentions.

    Key Q4 Metrics: Revenue loss of $1.58 bln; Loss of $2.12 bln; ROE- 4.8%; Tier 1- 15.6%; Trading & Principal Investment net neg revs $4.36 bln; FICC net neg revs $3.40 bln; Credit product loss- $1.3 bln (~$700 mln commercial); Principal Investment loss- $3.6 bln ($2 bln in corporate principal investments, $960 mln from real estate, $631 mln from ICBC investment): Total Capital $232 bln ($64 bln shareholder equity, $168 bln unsecured L-T borrowing; BVPS- $98.68; TBVP- $88; Total Assets $885 bln; Level 3 assets $66 bln (7.5%); Legacy Loan Exposure $7 bln, down from $52 bln in 2007; Commercial real estate portfolio decline of 25% to $10.9 bln, loss of $700 mln; Total Leverage Ratio 18.5x.
  • Tänase tõusu puhul tahaks juhtida tähelepanu ülimadalale käibele. SPY'l nt ainult (!) ca 180 mln vs keskmine 370 mln. Tõus madala käibega pole hea märk.
  • GS väljas
    Q1 $3.39 v $1.64e, R$9.43B v $7.19Be
    common equity offering $5bln
  • Koos olemasolevate ressurssidega loodetakse offeringist saadud rahaga kogu võetud TARP raha tagasi maksta. Dividendimaksed tõmmatakse alla $0.47 pealt $0.35 peale.
  • Ja juba tiksub allapoole, hetkel $128 tasemel. Paistab, et ootused olid liiga kõrged.
    C sai tuule tiibadesse ja kõigub $3.85-3.90 vahemikus.
  • Goldmani tulemustest veel:

    When Goldman became a bank holding company last fall amid the mushrooming credit crisis, it switched its reporting cycle so its fiscal quarters were in line with calendar quarters beginning Jan. 1. To adjust its reporting schedule, Goldman began fiscal 2009 on Jan. 1 instead of Dec. 1 of last year. The bank said for the month of December, which fell between the change in reporting cycles, it lost $1 billion, or $2.15 per share.

    Väga mugav on 'tagantjärgi' teatada, et detsembris kaotati $1 miljard ning et järgneva kolme kuuga teeniti $1.7 miljardit. Eks siin ole nüüd raamatupidamises usinat ja loovat tööd ka omajagu tehtud.

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