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Börsipäev 23. aprill

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  • Tulemuste tabel taas uuendatud - peamine trend on see, et müügitulude ootustele jääb alla väga suur hulk ettevõtteid. Kasumiootuste täitmisega on tänu kulude kiirele kärpimisele seis parem. Link tabelile siin. 

    Tänased tähtsamad tulemuste teatajad enne turgu on: UNP, DHR, COP, BDK, UPS, PM jt. Pärast turgu tulevad MSFT, AMGN ja AMZN.

    Täna kell 15.30 tuleb Initial Claimsi numbrid - ootused 639 000 (mäletatavasti eelmine nädal oli number erakordselt madal 610 000 peal). Kell 17.00 tuleb olemasolevate majade märtsikuu müügiraport - ootusteks 4.67 miljonit, eelmine kuu oli 4.72 miljonit.

  • Swedbank avaneb pärast hommikusi tulemusi ca 17% miinuses ja maksab 39 SEKi - eilseks sulgumishinnaks oli 47 SEKi.
  • Kergelt contrarian, mis?

    April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Short sellers are increasing bets against developing-nation stocks by the most since March 2007, a signal the biggest rally in 16 years may fizzle as profits plunge from Brazil to Taiwan.
    Short interest in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index fund, which tracks equities in 23 developing nations, climbed 51 percent in March, the biggest jump in two years, according to New York Stock Exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. Wagers against Rio de Janeiro-based oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA’s U.S.-traded shares were the highest since August 2005.
    Those against display maker AU Optronics Corp. of Hsinchu, Taiwan surged to an eight-month high, the data show.
    The growth in short sales, where investors borrow stock and sell it on the expectation prices will fall, marks a shift from the last three rebounds in emerging-market stocks. In those cases traders closed out their bets. The MSCI gauge, up 34 percent from its 2009 low on March 2, may drop 10 percent in coming weeks as falling earnings damp investor optimism, ING Investment Management SA’s Eric Conrads said.
    “We aren’t out of the woods,” said Conrads, a Mexico City-based hedge fund manager at ING, which oversees $12 billion in emerging-market assets. Conrads started betting against developing-nation equities this month, convinced the stocks are in a “bear-market rally,” he said.
  • Initial Claims 640K vs 640K consensus, prior revised to 613K from 610K
  • 635 konsensus?
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-US-jobless-claims-rise-apf-15009702.html?sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
  • Nuecor (NUE) jääb ootustele tugevalt alla ning prognoosid järgmise kvartali osas nutused.
  • Aasia ja Euroopa plussis. USA alsutab gapiga üles. S&P500 @ 843 punkti, Nasdaq100 @ 1343 punkti ning nafta @ $49.8 barrelist.

    Saksamaa DAX +0.03% 

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.83%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.08%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.32%

    Venemaa MICEX +2.87%

    Poola WIG +1.24%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.37%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.26%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.10%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.89%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.82%

    Tai Set 50 +1.19%

    India Sensex 30 +2.93%

  • Worrisome Volatility
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/23/2009 8:45 AM EDT

    Failure is the foundation of success; success is the lurking place of failure.
    -- Laozi

    As we enter the heart of earnings season, volatility is increasing and making things quite dangerous. One minute it looks like every shallow dip will be bought and the bulls are just going to keep on running, and then we suddenly reverse in the other direction and end up with an ugly finish, as we did yesterday. Of course, we then have a number of pretty good earnings reports from the likes of Apple (AAPL) and we gap right back up again, as we are doing this morning.

    So the volatility, especially during the final hour of trading, is pretty obvious, but the bigger question is whether it is meaningful within the bigger picture. Are these quick swings up and down a sign that the recent market success if growing old and that a more significant correction lies ahead?

    One thing we all know for certain about the market is that it runs in the cycles. Within every major bear or bull market there will be cycles of shorter duration. The biggest mistake most of us make is underestimating how long these cycles will last. As I've often said, the market tends to move further in one direction or the other than you tend to think is reasonable.

    Some would argue that the move off the March low has already gone beyond what seems reasonable. The bulls slipped a little bit on Monday and showed some signs of rolling over but came back strongly on Tuesday and looked very strong again most of the day on Wednesday. We sold off hard into the close as financials faltered, but another good group of earnings has the bulls perking up once again this morning.

    The market rally since the March low was driven first by a number of government bailout moves, then by the thought that maybe the worst is over, and most recently by some better-than-expected earnings, especially from the financial sector. While many small-caps have come on lately and we're seeing some strong pockets of momentum, overall the indices have not made any major upside progress since the Wells Fargo (WFC) earnings preannouncement on April 9.

    We still have quite a few earnings reports to come, but only a few major ones are left for the quarter, including Microsoft (MSFT) , American Express (AXP) and Amazon (AMZN) , which are due tonight. The question on my mind is whether the end of earnings season is going to slow our upside momentum.

    I think it will slow some of the upside progress, but that doesn't mean we won't have some good trading opportunities going forward. In fact, it can be argued that we really need some more consolidation for charts to improve. We have had only very shallow pullbacks since the March bounce began, and an awful lot of extended stocks are becoming increasingly volatile, especially late in the day.

    There is no question that the bigger picture has improved. A rally of the duration and intensity we've had over the past six weeks or so creates some strong underlying support that will not die too easily. However, these fast intraday swings, especially late in the day, is a sign of some instability, and we shouldn't be overly confident that we are going to keep going straight up without some consolidation.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RSH +18.4%, PTV +16.7%, AN +15.2% (light volume), MCRI +13.9% (light volume), RCL +13.1%, IRBT +12.2%, DAVE +11.9%, FITB +11.7%, NUVA +10.7%, WGOV +10.6% (also upgraded to Outperform at Baird), JBLU +10.2%, RTN +10.2%, CMG +9.9%, CNX +9.8%, TASR +9.6%, GRT +7.5% (light volume), LCC +6.0%, TQNT +5.8% (light volume), MI +5.7%, EBAY +5.4%, PNC +5.1%, YUM +5.0%, MAR +4.8% (light volume), NVS +4.7%, QCOM +4.2% (Revenue and operating income for the second quarter of fiscal 2009, excluding the potential impact of the Broadcom agreement, met or exceeded prior guidance), HSY +4.1%, COP +4.0%, NE +4.0%, NVLS +3.9%, XLNX +3.9%, DO +3.7%, AAPL +2.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Morgan Keegan), CKH +2.6%... Select financial related names trading higher: CS +11.2% (flies above forecast on big trading gain - Reuters), RF +7.8%, FIG +7.3%, ING +7.1%, BCS +6.3% (Chairman says no intention to raise more capital - DJ), IBN +6.0%, GNW +5.3%, DB +5.0%, WFC +4.0%, FMER +3.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BAC +3.4%, USB +2.5%, C +2.2%, MS +1.6% (upgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), JPM +1.4%, GS +1.3%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: RTP +5.1%, MT +3.3%, BHP +1.9%... Select oil/gas names trading higher: E +3.2%, TOT +3.1%, BP +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at RBS), RDS.A +2.1%... Other news: ABMD +26.1% (receives FDA 510(k) clearance for Impella 5.0 and Impella LD), ACOR +14.5% (resubmits new drug application for Fampridine-SR for improvement of walking ability in people with multiple sclerosis), LVS +8.8% (still checking), MICC +8.8% (still checking), BRCM +8.4% (Qualcomm reschedules earnings release due to settlement discussions with Broadcom; also upgraded to Market Perform at JMP), DRYS +5.4% (still checking), NOK +3.8% (still checking), NDAQ +3.3% (announces March 2009 stats)... Analyst comments: EBAY +6.6% (upgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart), TIN +4.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), BRCD +3.6% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VMW -16.1% (also downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies and downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), CNH -11.1%, LOGI -11.1%, CIT -8.5%, TMO -8.5%, BG -8.3%, TMK -7.9% (also downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), CNMD -7.9% (light volume), MTSC -5.9%, BCR -4.7%, WOOF -4.6% (light volume), NOV -4.4%, NCR -4.2% (light volume), FFIV -3.5% (also downgraded to Sell at UBS), LRCX -3.2%, UPS -2.6%, POT -2.1%, ABB -1.9% (also downgraded to Hold at Societe Generale)... Other news: PKY -6.9% (prices 6.25 mln common share offering at $13.71), IPI -3.3% (down in sympathy with POT and BG)... Analyst comments: AF -13.2% (light volume; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Sandler O'Neill), CTXS -4.0% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), NAT -1.9% (downgraded to Sell at Cantor), PKG -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- Reuters).
  • March Existing Home Sales mln 4.57 vs 4.65 mln consensus, -3.0% m/m
  • RHI on tulemuste peale ligi 10% kukkunud, ruumi allapoole liikumiseks tundub veel üksjagu olema. Kas just tänase päeva jooksul juhtub, on iseküsimus.
  • Tugev lõpp päevale, lühikestele ei taheta üldse võimalust anda. Jääme ootama MSFT ja AMZN tulemusi.
  • Amazon.com prelim $0.41 vs $0.31 First Call consensus; revs $4.89 bln vs $4.76 bln First Call consensus. Amazon.com sees Q2 revs $4.3-4.75 bln vs $4.61 bln First Call consensus.

    Prognoosid natukene konservatiivsed/ettevaatlikud.
  • AMZN viimaste kvartalite tuntud headuses.
  • Sunpower prelim $0.05 vs $0.24 First Call consensus; revs $214 mln vs $269.05 mln First Call consensus. Sunpower sees FY09 $1.25-1.75 vs $1.90 First Call consensus; sees revs $1300-1700 mln vs $1.56 bln First Call consensus.

    Sunpoweri prognoosivahemik on sama lai nagu Bahreini Vormel 1 rada. Määramatust päikesepaneelide ja alternatiivenergiaga seotud äritegevuses väga palju.
  • Microsoft prelim $0.33 vs $0.39 First Call consensus; revs $13.65 bln vs $14.09 bln First Call consensus

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