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Börsipäev 20. mai

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  • Tund aega pärast USA turgude avanemist teatatakse USA möödunud nädala naftavarude muutused ning Eesti aja järgi kell 21 tehakse avalikuks viimakse Föderaalreservi miitingu protokolli sisu.

    Enne turu avanemist tulevad põllumajandustehnikat tootva Deere'i (DE) tulemused, kus oodatakse EPSi $1.07 ning müügitulu $6.6 miljardit. Samuti avaldavad oma numbrid jaemüüjad Target (TGT) (ootus EPSis $0.59 ja müügitulus $14.81 mld), BJ Wholesale's (BJ) (ootus EPSis $0.44 ja müügitulus $2.31 mld) ning naiste riietele keskendunud AnnTaylor (ANN) (ootus EPSis -$0.13 ja müügitulus $457 mln).
  • Keskpangad hakkavad tasapisi mõtlema, et lõdvendamisega liiale ei mindaks? Oodatud 25 baasipunktilise langetamise asemel jättis Tai täna intressimäärad samale tasemele - link siin. 

  • Tänu naela viimaste kuude kallinemisele nii euro kui dollari suhtes, saavad Suurbritannia suvitajad endale Euroopas ja Ameerikas koduvaluuta eest rohkem lubada võrreldes talveperioodiga. Nael on tugevnenud dollari suhtes nelja kuuga 13% tänu teatud parenemise märkidele kinnisvarasektoris ja keskpanga kommentaaridele, et põhi on majanduses saavutatud. Lisaks näib Euroopa  makromajanduslik info osutumas halvemaks kui Suurbritannias ja ECB astumas alles samme, mida Inglise keskpank juba ammu ette võtnud.

    GBP-USD graafik

  • Bank of Americal (BAC) õnnestus edukalt 1.25 miljardit lihtaktsiat investoritele hinnaga $10.77 maha müüa - tulemuseks lisakapitali enam kui $13 miljardi eest. Väga tubli tulemus ning finantssektorist vaatavad eelturul vastu vaid kõrgemad aktsiahinnad. S&P500 ning Nasdaq100 futuurid +0.6% ja +0.4%. Paberi peal (paper profit) on pakkumisest aktsiad ostnud investorite varade väärtus kokku kasvanud juba üle $1 miljardi.
  • Kui aasta alguses indikeeris turg TIPSide läbi järgmiseks 10 aastaks USAs aastast inflatsiooni ca 0.0%, siis kaks nädalat tagasi oli see 1.43% ning täna juba 1.65%. Inflatsiooniootused on taas kasvama hakanud.
  • Olen soovitanud kaubamahtude liikumist kajastaval Baltic Dry Indexil ikka silma peal hoida - indeks jätkab tõusu:

  • Saksamaa DAX +0.83% 

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.44%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.21%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.35%

    Venemaa MICEX +3.32%

    Poola WIG +0.59%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.59%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.39%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.95%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.42%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.59%

    Tai Set 50 +0.86%

    India Sensex 30 -1.69%

  • Bullish on Stocks, Distrustful of the Indices
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/20/2009 8:43 AM EDT

    The only completely consistent people are the dead.
    -- Aldous Huxley

    The market is feeling good this morning about Bank of America's (BAC) move to sell a secondary offering of 1.25 billion new shares. The fact that it needed to sell so many shares and the level of dilution are apparently far less important than the fact that the deal is done and they can now move on.

    The BAC news is helping to offset a slightly negative reaction to earnings from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Deere (DE) . We also continue to see more secondaries from the likes of Regions Financial (RF) , Forest Oil (FST) , Hertz (HTZ) and Swift Energy (SFY) . Companies are racing to raise capital while the sentiment is still positive, and they are doing a good job of it.

    So where do we go from here? Technically this market has some obstacles, and I'm not very confident that a huge offering by BAC will overcome them. We basically had a high-volume breakdown a week ago followed by a low-volume bounce back to resistance the last few days. The move on Monday caught some folks by surprise due to its size, but the lack of volume and the churning action yesterday indicates we have some hurdles to overcome if the bulls are going to get moving again.

    What has been most interesting about the market from my perspective has been the strong pockets of momentum that still exist. We have seen small-cap China, bulk shipping, solar energy, fertilizers, metals and select small-caps attract hot-money traders looking for action. This group doesn't care very much about the BACs and HPQs of the world -- they just focus on the things that are attracting the most attention and the most momentum. When it slows, they sell quickly and move on to the next play.

    The fact that we have some lively momentum in secondary groups is a healthy sign. It is when there are no pockets of strength and complete disinterest that the bear market inflicts the most damage. We have to watch for a slowing in momentum. It happened last week, and the cooling was followed by some very ugly action last Wednesday.

    Overall, the market has some technical obstacles, but positives are brewing that could help the bullish cause. Some further consolidation and a little more profit-taking wouldn't hurt at all, especially if we continue to see the very active pockets of momentum.

    My game plan here is to be distrustful of the major indices until they prove themselves better and to stay focused on the small-cap momentum plays. In other words, I'm willing to be bullish on individual stocks in the short term but have very limited faith in further upside in the major indices at this point.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PRGN +21.3%, ADI +10.7% (also upgraded to Buy at Deutsche and upgraded to Neutral at Baird), OCNF +8.9%, ESLT +4.3% (light volume), MPEL +2.8% (light volume)... Select financial names trading higher: IRE +18.5% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), MI +5.4%, FITB +4.4%, DB +4.1%, BAC +3.4% (concludes at-the-market stock offering), C +2.1%, JPM +1.7%, RJF +1.7% (withdraws application to participate in Capital Purchase Program - DJ), MS +1.3%, GS +1.1%, STT +0.9% (prices $500 mln senior debt offering at 99.905% of principal; net proceeds will be approx $498 mln)... Select metals/mining names showing strength: GOLD +3.8%, AU +2.8%, AUY +2.4%, RTP +2.2% (Rio Tinto tells Chinalco changes may be needed - WSJ)... Select oil/gas names trading higher: RDS.A +2.9% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), E +2.6%, BP +2.1%... Select shipping names showing strength boosted by PRGN results: SBLK +8.7%, NM +6.5%, DRYS +3.4% (DryShips near the end of ATM offering- Oppenheimer), DSX +3.1%, GNK +1.9%... Select drug related names trading higher: GSK +3.2%, AZN +1.6%, SNY +1.6%... Other news: TTM +13.8% (raises $262 mln in India bonds, according to sources - Reuters.com), ONXX +10.9% (Onyx Pharma and Bayer HealthCare announce that Nexavar is approved in Japan for the treatment of advanced liver cancer), ANPI +6.2% (SYNTAX substudy shows positive outcomes for left main patients treated with TAXUS Express stent system), DAL +4.5% (Delta Air Lines and Air France KLM Group announced a new long-term joint venture), TSRA +4.4% (ratified the appointment of Pricewaterhouse Coopers as independent auditors and approved a one-time stock option exchange program), MGM +2.3% (signs deals to brand and manage hotels that others will develop and build - WSJ)... Analyst comments: TLB +13.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital), PLD +3.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Friedman Billings), COST +1.7% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), MCD +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), SOLF +1.7% (upgraded to Hold at Jefferies), NOK +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), PG +1.4% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PLAB -10.2% (light volume), ANN -6.3%, NTES -5.5%, HPQ -4.0%, DE -0.7%... Other news: ONTY -22.5% (announces commitments to purchase $11.1 million of co securities), ISIS -12.1% (ISIS Pharm and Genzyme report mipomersen Phase 3 study results), RF -8.8% (announces $1.25 bln capital raise), IVC -8.4% (still checking), LYG -7.2% (placing offer price of 38.43P/new ordinary share - DJ), HTZ -7.1% (launches mixed offering of 40 mln in stock and convertible senior notes), PPDI -6.3% (promoted Fredric N. Eshelman, vice chairman and CEO, to the newly created position of executive chairman of the board of directors), FST -5.5% (announces public offering of 12.5 mln shares of common stock), STO -5.3% (trading ex-dividend), PSEC -4.3% (priced a 6.75 mln share common stock offering at $8.25/share), VOD -2.9% (still checking), SE -2.6% and SEP -1.9% (Spectra Energy's Spectra Energy Partners announces commencement of public offering of common units), FPL -1.2% (announces it has agreed to sell $350 mln of equity common units to Credit Suisse Securities), UIL -1.0% (CT AG asks DPUC to investigate United Illuminating - DJ)... Analyst comments: MTB -5.3% (initiated with Sell at Maxim), SAI -2.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), PALM -2.0% ( downgraded to Underperform at Needham), HIW -1.3% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings).
  • Ja hommikul oma numbrid avalikustanud ettevõtetest ka veel - kõigil neljal EPSid oodatust paremad.

    DE EPS $1.11 vs oodatud $1.07 ning müügitulu $6.19 mld vs oodatud $6.6 mld.
    TGT EPS $$0.69 vs oodatud $0.59 ning müügitulu $14.36 mld vs oodatud $14.81 mld.
    BJ EPS $0.45 vs oodatud $0.44 ning müügitulu $2.31 mld vs oodatud $2.31 mld.
    ANN EPS -$0.04 vs oodatud -$0.13 ning müügitulu $426.7 mln vs oodatud $454.7 mln.
  • VIX indeks käis kergelt juba plusspoolel, kuid nüüd vajutud tagasi 1.63% langusesse, 28.33 tasemele. Kas FOMC-i peale suudetakse turg päeva tippudesse osta või jätkuba müügisurve? 5 minuti pärast on andmed väljas.
  • Fed says housing may be nearing trough; home price drop slowing
    Fed says tentative signs that pace of contraction waning
    Fed says long-run forecasts unchanged; inflation 1.7-2.0 pct, unemployment 4.8-5.0 pct, GDP 2.5-2.7 pct
    Fed says downgrades econ forecasts through 2011 from Jan
  • Briefingu kokkuvõte Föderaalreservi protokolli tähtsamatest punktidest:

    All FOMC participants projected that real GDP would contract this year, that the unemployment rate would increase in coming quarters, and that inflation would be slower this year than in recent years. Almost all participants viewed the near-term outlook for economic activity as having weakened relative to the projections they made at the time of the January FOMC meeting, but they continued to expect a recovery in sales and production to begin during the second half of 2009. All anticipated that unemployment, though declining in coming years, would remain well above its longer-run sustainable rate at the end of 2011; most indicated they expected the economy to take five or six years to converge to a longer- run path characterized by a sustainable rate of output growth and by rates of unemployment and inflation consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual objectives, but several said full convergence would take longer. Participants projected very low inflation this year; most expected inflation to edge up over the next few years toward the rate they consider consistent with the dual objectives. Most participants—though fewer than in January—viewed the risks to the growth outlook as skewed to the downside. Most participants saw the risks to the inflation outlook as balanced; fewer than in January viewed those risks as tilted to the downside. With few exceptions, participants judged that their projections for economic activity and inflation remained subject to a degree of uncertainty exceeding historical norms. Participants' projections for 2009 real GDP growth had a central tendency of negative 2.0% to negative 1.3%, somewhat below the central tendency of negative 1.3% to negative 0.5% for their January projections. Looking further ahead, participants' projections for real GDP growth in 2010 had a central tendency of 2.0 to 3.0%, and those for 2011 had a central tendency of 3.5 to 4.8%. Most participants expected that, absent further shocks, real GDP growth eventually would converge to a rate of 2.5 to 2.7 percent per year, reflecting longer-term trends in the growth of productivity and the labor force... Participants noted that the data received between the January and April FOMC meetings pointed to a larger decline in output and employment during the first quarter than they had anticipated at the time of the January meeting. However, participants also saw recent indications that the economic downturn was slowing in the second quarter, and they continued to expect that sales and production would begin to recover—albeit gradually—during the second half of the year, reflecting the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus and of measures to support credit markets and stabilize the financial system along with market forces.
  • Palmi Pre tundub minevat hästi kaubaks:

    Palm sees spike in volume following Bloomberg headline reporting that Best Buy (BBY) merchadising director expects to run out of Palm Pre in fist week debut.

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