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Börsipäev 8. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eile õhtul ilmus Bloombergis artikkel (link siin), mis räägib lähipäevade G8 kohtumisest ja sellest, et maailma suured arenenud riigid on oma hiigelvõlgade tõttu kaotamas mõjuvõimu. Sellest, et arenguriigid on tegemas arenenud riikidele mitmel rindel silmad ette, kirjutasin ise hiljuti ka siin. 

  • Hiina president Hu Jintao, kes pidanuks reedel G8 tippkohtumisel võtma sõna reservvaluuta ning rahvusvahelise rahapoliitika teemal, on sunnitud Xinjiangi pealinnas tekkinud mässude tõttu lendama tagasi kodumaale. Presidendi osalemist tippkohtumisel pole aga täielikult veel välistatud.
  • Täna pärast USA aktsiaturu sulgemist tehakse ots lahti ka 2. kvartali tulemuste hooajal - traditsiooniliselt on esimeseks suureks raporteerijaks Alcoa (AA), kellelt oodatakse EPSi -$0.37 ja müügitulu $3.92 miljardit.
  • Saksamaa statistikaamet edastab teist päeva julgustavaid numbreid, mis vihjavad majanduse stabiliseerumisele põhjade lähedal . Eile jõudis turule info, et maikuu tööstustellimused kasvasid mais 4.4% (enim viimase kahe aasta jooksul) ületades mäekõrguselt konsensuse 0.5%-list prognoosi. Suurim tellimuste kasv tuli väljaspoolt eurotsooni (+8.2%), mis viitab sellele, et Aasia on aitamas Euroopat majanduslangusest välja tirida.
    Täna avaldatud tööstustoodang kerkis mais 3.7% võrreldes aprilliga, mil näitaja kukkus -2.6%. Tegemist on kiireima tõusuga viimase 16 aasta jooksul ning lõi samuti pika puuga analüütikute keskmist ootust (0.5%). Aastatagusega võrreldes oli tööstustoodang siiski -17.9%-lises languses.
  • Eelmise aasta oktoobris suletud Pro lühike idee Lamar Advertising (LAMR) on täna jälle negatiivset tähelepanu saamas:

    Benchmark initiates LAMR with a Sell and price target of $11, as they believe advertising demand could weaken further in the months ahead and stay depressed into 2010. Lamar's heavy $3 bln debt load could make it sensitive to shrinking cash flow. Firm notes co generates over half of its revenue from economically vulnerable industries such as restaurant, retail, automotive, real estate, amusements and hotel/motel, all of which have been significantly affected by the recession and shrinking discretionary consumer spending. Lamar's strategy to hold prices firm at the cost of occupancy may result in bulletin occupancy bottoming out near 60%.

    Ilmselt on LAMRi aktsia lähiajal pigem langemas ning antud analüüs pakub sellele vaid tuge. Teisalt ei öelda midagi uut ja paljud arengud on juba hinnas sees. Pigem hakatakse turul ilmselt kartma, et läheb prognoosidest veelgi hullemini. Kokkuvõttes selline tähelepanu-juhtiv-note.

  • Kui Saksamaa üllatas positiivselt ja data viitab põhja saavutmisele, siis Jaapani majandus ei tundu jalgealust leidvat - masinate tellimused mais -3% võrreldes aprilliga. BNP ökonomist Azusa Kato kommenteerib Jaapani ettevõtete olukorda:

    “A lot of companies are running somewhere near 50 percent of capacity. They’re hoping maybe they can boost that to 70 percent, but that’s still not a level that warrants new investment in plant and equipment.” 

     

  • Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +0.03%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.68%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.41%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.19%
    Venemaa MICEX -3.24%
    Poola WIG -0.32%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.35%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.79%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.28%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.03%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.60%
    Tai Set 50 -1.57%
    India Sensex 30 -2.83%

  • A Change in Thinking
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/8/2009 8:49 AM EDT

    If you don't like something, change it; if you can't change it, change the way you think about it.
    -- Mary Engelbreit

    Over the last three days, the major indices have suffered their worst setback since the bottom in March. The S&P 500 has corrected 4.62%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index has pulled back a hefty 6.69%.

    Pullbacks of that size always do some technical damage, and that certainly is the case this time. We have traded below the lows of June and have broken key trend lines and moving averages; however, we are now oversold and due for a bounce. There are some key upgrades and positive economic news this morning, so we have the catalysts in place for a bit of a recovery, but the important thing to keep in mind is that it will take more than one day of good action to repair the damage that has been done.

    The more important thing to keep in mind at this point is that we have seen a shift in the trend. We chugged along very nicely from early March to mid-June and recovered repeatedly from various dips and pullbacks. What was particularly notable about the uptrend was the persistence of the dip-buying and how well we recovered every time we were on the brink of a collapse.

    What made the rally difficult for many to embrace was that the news from Main Street seldom seemed as upbeat as the attitude of Wall Street. The jobs report this past Friday finally seems to have highlighted that disconnect, and that is when the meat of the correction began.

    The question now is whether Wall Street will continue to adjust to the more sober mood of much of Main Street. With talk about the need of another economic stimulus, the political rhetoric is shifting from the happy talk about a quick recovery to warnings that we need to do something more or risk dire consequences.

    The shift in the attitude of Wall Street along with the recent technical damage that has been done is the sort of shift in character that requires us to respect the fact that the trend is now in danger of accelerating further to the downside. That doesn't mean we will go straight down. In fact, we are very likely to have a strong rebound or two that will prop up bullishness before further damage will be done.

    A further complexity will be the upcoming earnings season. Good earnings reports really helped to drive much of our rally off the March low; expectations were low and many firms did a nice job of cost-cutting. While revenues might have slowed, the bottom line held up as expenses were cut. It is going to be tough to keep on cutting costs, but expectations are still fairly low and that is going to be a major obstacle for the bears.

    The important thing to keep in mind right now is that there is a major shift in technical conditions and that we can't be too trusting of a bounce at this point. We are due for one, but after what has happened since the jobs report, we should be looking for strength to be sold rather than embraced.

    We have some positive action in the early going. I see quite a few upgrades of stocks including Amazon (AMZN) , Research In Motion (RIMM) , First Solar (FSLR) , Dry Ships (DRYS) , Amgen (AMGN) , etc., as well as some positive economic news out of Japan and Germany. Alcoa (AA) kicks off earnings season tonight and has already indicated that it expects to be upbeat.
    ----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SNS +8.3%, RT +8.2%, FDO +8.1%... M&A news: MSCS +11.1% (announces agreement to be acquired by Symphony Technology Group for $7.63/share in cash)... Select European drug names showing strength: GSK +1.5%, NVS +1.1%, AZN +1.0%... Other news: AMGN +15.2% (Denosumab demonstrates superiority over Zometa in pivotal phase 3 head-to-head trial in breast cancer patients with bone metastases; meets its primary and secondary endpoints), BPZ +9.2% (secures commitments for senior debt credit facility), LVS +6.1% (Adelson says Sands considering Macau IPO - Las Vegas Sun), CHRS +5.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CHU +4.6% (speculation mounted that it was close to signing a deal to launch Apple's iPhone handset in mainland), ALKS +4.1% (announces new drug application for Exenatide once weekly accepted for review by FDA), MGM +4.1% (up in sympathy with LVS), AMLN +3.5% (announces new drug application for Exenatide once weekly accepted for review by FDA), ELN +3.5% (still checking for anything specific, confirmed after the close that it would report earnings July 21), DFS +2.7% (priced its ~54.05 mln share common stock offering at $9.25/share)... Analyst comments: DRYS +5.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Credit Suisse), RFMD +5.4% (ests and tgt raised to $5 at Oppenheimer as demand trends continue to be favorable), XL +3.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), BTU +3.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman - CNBC), STM +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), SAP +2.2% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), FCX +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), FSLR +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at ThinkEquity), AMZN +0.8% (upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna Financial).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Select financial names ticking lower: AIB -4.7%, AXA -2.7%, ING -2.1%, HBC -1.7%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: GFI -2.3%, GG -1.9%, AU -1.6%, ABX -1.6%, AEM -1.6%, MT -1.5%, NEM -1.4%, AUY -1.1%... Other news: ARYX -49.9% (announces results from of Ph. 2/3 clinical trial of anticoagulant agent tecarfarin), RTP -15.5% (China reportedly inks iron ore deal; Rio execs detained - Reuters; also trading ex dividend), XNPT -10.2% (announces that it is offering to sell 2.5 mln shares of common stock), ARNA -8.8% (intends to offer shares of its common stock in a public offering), AIG -5.3% (Greenberg logs victory in AIG case, for now at least - WSJ), PCAR -1.9% (declared that the company's regular quarterly dividend will be reduced to $0.09 from $0.18), ICE -1.6% (continued weakness from yesterday's 10+ point drop)... Analyst comments: HOT -2.1% (downgraded to Underperform at Baird), YGE -1.9% (downgraded to Accumulate at ThinkEquity and downgraded to Hold at Hapoalim).
  • Briefing: Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a draw of 2896K (consensus is a draw of 2800K); gasoline inventories had a build of 1902K (consensus is a build of 900K); distillate inventories had a build of 3739K (consensus is a build of 1825K).

    Nafta nüüdseks 2% miinuses, $61.6 peal.
  • Nafta -4.5% @ $60.0. Kõikumised 'õiglases väärtuses' on ikka kohutavalt kiired/suured.
  • S&P500 liikumist jälgiv börsilkaubeldav fond SPY on igaljuhul üritamas veel langusele piiri panna ning kauplemispäeva lõpuks tahetakse justkui vägisi päeva sees läbikukutud 200-päeva libisevast keskmisest kõrgemal sulguda. See annaks järgnevatel päevadel võimaluse põrkeks.
  • Lõpp on tõesti tugev olnud ja S&P 500 taas üle 880 punkti.
  • Alcoa prelim ($0.26) vs ($0.38) First Call consensus; revs $4.24 bln vs $3.93 bln First Call consensus.
  • Kui Alcoa järelturul rohkem kui 7% plussi tõusis, siis ilmselt pakub see ka turule positiivset tuge.

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