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Börsipäev 17. juuli

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  • Loodan, et ei pahandata, et ma sellise pealkirjaga teema alustasin...

    Alustuseks siis Roubini e-mail, kus ta ütleb, et vastupidiselt meedias väidetule - tema pole öelnud, et kõik hästi on... ;-)

    The following is a statement from Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor, New York University, Stern School of Business:

    “It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

    “I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

    “Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

    “I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus predicts that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

    “I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.

    “While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.

    “Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

    “So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the US and the global economy; but as I have consistently argued the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

    “RGE Monitor will soon release our updated U.S. and Global Economic Outlook. A preview of the U.S. Outlook is available on our website: www.rgemonitor.com”
  • Nädala viimasteks makronumbriteks on kell 15.30 avalikustatavad juunikuu ehituslubade arv, mille aastaseks tempoks oodatakse 524 000 (vs maikuu 518 000) ning majade ehitamise alustamiste arv, mille aastaseks tempoks oodatakse 530 000 (vs maikuu 532 000).

    Eilsed üle ootuste tugevad IBMi numbrid näitasid, et Intel (INTC) pole ainuke, kes indikeerib ees ootavatele parematele aegadele. Täna enne turgu saame tulevad veel olulised tulemused General Electricult, Citigroupilt ja Bank of Americalt.
  • Tulemuste tabel on nüüdseks uuendatud - link siin. Nagu näha, siis 27st seni tabelis olevast suuremast ettevõttest on kasumi osas ootustele alla jäänud vaid 3 (!). Ettevõtted on kulude kärpimist võtnud väga tõsiselt ning analüütikute ootused on olnud lihtsalt liiga tagasihoidlikud.

  • Natuke teemast väljas, aga nii Karum6mmile kui ka teistele - vastupidi, meil on hea meel, kui ka keegi teine neid börsipäevasid alustab. Tavaliselt me jõuame lihtsalt ise ette.
  • No ma ärkasin täna lihtsalt vara ;-)
  • Citi langetab pärast eilseid Q2 tulemusi Harley-Davidson’i (HOG) kasumiprognoose ja aktsia hinnasihti. 2009.-11. aastal oodatakse kasumit aktsia kohta vastavalt $0.70; $1.20 ja $1.45 (varasemad prognoosid olid $1.27; $1.66 ja $1.94 ehk üsna suur langus).

    Hinnasihti kärbitakse $2 võrra $14, mis asetaks aktsia sarnaselt võrdlusgrupiga – Polaris (PII) ja Thor Industries (THO) - kauplema ligikaudu 12-kordsele 2010. aasta oodatavale kasumile. Aktsia reiting on jätkuvalt „Sell“.

    Ootaks täna prognooside kärpimist ja hinnasihi langetamist ka Goldman Sachs’i poolt, kelle eilses esialgses tulemuste kommentaaris leidus selline järgnev lõik:

    Implications
    We believe many of the challenges for this quarter had been anticipated, but still would expect to see some pressure in the shares given the extent of the losses at HDFS (some of which will recur as more loans are reclassified from HFS to HFI) and given the extent of the softness in retail sales. Our estimates and price target are under review pending more color from the call.


    Kuigi Harley-Davidson’i aktsia avanes eile miinuses, siis konverentsikõne käigus korraldati vägev short squeeze (18% aktsiatest on lühikeseks müüdud) ja päev lõpetati 8%-lises plussis. Samas analüütikute negatiivsed kommentaarid võiksid täna turuosaliste optimismi jahutada.
  • Argus Research'i analüütik Jackson Turner üritab endale nime teha sellega, et julgeb Microsoft'i (MSFT) aktsia osas esimesena välja tulla müügisoovitusega . Bloombergi andmetel katab aktsiat 35 analüütikut, kellest 25 on väljas ostusoovitusega ning üheksa on neutraalsed.

    Turner'i arvates saavad Microsoft'ile saatuslikuks aeglane Win 7 kasutuselevõtt ja pikemaks perspektiivis tasuta operatsioonisüsteeme pakkuvad konkurendid nagu näiteks äsja turule sisenemisest teatanud Google (GOOG). Pikemalt saab Argus'e kommentaari lugeda siit

  • General Electric'u (GE) numbrid on väljas - käibe osas jäädi päris korralikult konsensusele alla:

    Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.26 per share, including a $0.02 transaction gain and $0.07 restructuring/impairments, may not be comparable to the First Call consensus of $0.23; revenues fell 16.6% year/year to $39.08 bln vs the $42.16 bln consensus.
  • Bank of America prelim $0.33 vs $0.28 First Call consensus; revs $32.77 bln vs $33.10 bln First Call consensus
  • Citi Q2 EPS $0.49 (suures osas Smith-Barney), konsensus -$0.37.
  • Hetkel on kõik tänased olulisemad tulemusteavaldajad - C, BAC, GE - miinuses ja eeldused indeksite languspäevaks loodud. Turu kiire tõus ning hirm CITi tagajärgede ees räägivad vaid selle kasuks. Samas tuleks ära oodata ka konverentsikõned, siis pilt selgem.
  • LHV Maailma Pro muude analüüside all avaldasin äsja ülevaate 140st erinevast Aasia ettevõtte ADRist USA börsil - Pro klientide jaoks on link siin. Üks neist, mis mulle endale väga hea mulje jättis, oli China Medical Technologies (CMED) - ettevõte, mis võidab Hiina meditsiinitööstuse moderniseerumisest. Täna alustab CMEDi katmist Standpoint Research - ostusoovitusega kaasas käivaks hinnasihiks on $33 ehk ca 75% tänasest turuhinnast enam.

  • June Housing Starts 582K vs 530K consensus, prior revised to 562K from 532K
    June Building Permits 563K vs 524K consensus
  • Madis, lisaks on meil ka optsioonireede ning S&P sulgus imeliselt olulisel tasemel - 940. Seega täna võib päris korralikult nalja saada.
  • Turg on tugevalt kosumas, Citi on 5% plussi jõudnud ja BAC ka juba sinises. Pakkuge nüüd, mis juhtuma hakkab.
  • Barclays langetab Harley-Davidson'i (HOG) reitingu "Underweight" tasemele. $10 hinnasiht on siiski vana, mitte new Street low nagu alguses kiiruga kirjutasin.

    Harley-Davidson downgraded to Underweight at Barclays- tgt $10

  • Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +0.66%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.75%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.66%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.25%
    Venemaa MICEX +2.14%
    Poola WIG -0.08%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.55%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.42%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.19%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.99%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.74%
    Tai Set 50 +2.57%
    India Sensex 30 +3.47%

  • Expect Choppiness
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/17/2009 9:03 AM EDT

    What everyone wants from life is continuous and genuine happiness.
    -- Baruch Spinoza

    Earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Intel (INTC) put the bulls into overdrive the last two days, but the current crop of earnings from Google (GOOG) , IBM (IBM) , Citigroup (C) and GE (GE) hold few surprises and are receiving a tepid response. IBM looks to be the best of the bunch and is trading up $1.70, while GOOG is down $12 and GE and C are doing little.

    The market has been in a remarkably persistent uptrend all week. The happiness has been continuous and genuine, but early indications are that these new reports might slightly disrupt the steady progress. So far they aren't doing too much damage, though, and the housing starts number is looking good.

    The market has been an extremely tricky one this week for anyone who was a bit defensive last week. We went from a potential breakdown out of a classic bearish head-and-shoulders top to a complete reversal triggered by bank analyst Meredith Whitney's positive comments about Goldman and other major banks. Earning from Intel fanned the bullish ardor, and it has been straight up all week. If you were positioned for downside on Monday morning, you've had to make some major adjustments and flip-flops to get back in a tune with a market that went straight up and is now back to testing the highs we hit in mid-June.

    A lot of folks feel much relief when the mood becomes so positive once again and the market makes such a positive and dramatic shift. After all, it is easer for most people to make money in a bull market rather than a bear market, so we should all be feeling good that we changed directions so totally and so abruptly, right?

    The difficulty is that most investors can't shift gears that fast. Generally we need a little time to close our more defensive plays and jump back into the more aggressive long-side plays. It is even harder to do when the shift in the market is so fast and without any sort of pullback. Most people can't build good long positions in a market that goes up five days in a row without any dip.

    But that is the challenge of the market. It is never easy, and what can be even more irksome is that there will always be folks cheering about how wonderful it is that the market shifted gears so quickly. Generally these are the folks who are perma-bulls and have stayed fully long as the market started to roll over in June, so they have good reason to be quite happy.

    For shorter-term position players, it is much more difficult and not nearly as enjoyable to see the trend that was showing some signs of gaining momentum go the other way due to analysts and earnings news. That is the great danger of earnings season, and it's why I often warn against placing bets ahead of the news.

    So this morning we are pretty much back to where we were a bit over a month ago. We've reversed the downtrend in a matter of five days or so and have driven underinvested bulls and overly aggressive bears crazy, as they haven't even had a pullback of more than 10 minutes or so.

    Now we are back at highs, the next crop of earnings are out and we are sitting there and not doing a whole lot. I suspect we'll hear more from the usual suspects about how wonderful it all is, but the big challenge is going to be finding some new buys in a market that has done a fantastic job of destroying charts. We'll see what the stock gods offer up, but after the run we've had this week, I expect a choppier day of trading.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TPX +8.1%, CBST +4.0%, MAT +3.1%, C +2.0%, IBM +2.0%... Select Indian related names trading higher following strength in overseas trading: SAY +3.9%, TTM +3.1%, SLT +2.7%, IBN +2.6%, IFN +1.2%... Other news: BCRX +37.4% (reports positive results of Shionogi & Co. sponsored Phase 3 studies of i.v. Peramivir for influenza), CIT +31.7% (pursuing financing alternatives), IVN +8.8% (rebounding from yesterday's ~15% decline; LA Times reports Mongolian parliament sidesteps mining pact with foreigners, asking the government to handle), ADCT +5.3% (still checking), GILD +1.3% (Pharmaceuticals announces agreement to develop and commercialize a new fixed-dose combination of TMC278 and Truvada with Gilead Sciences), YHOO +1.2% (Yahoo! search ad deal with Microsoft "down to the short strokes" but caution also advised - AllThingsD.com; also ests and tgt raised to $19 at Oppenheimer based on the increased demand of larger advertisers).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FHN -9.6%, ANGO -8.5% (light volume), BMI -8.4%, GE -3.7%, PBCT -2.8%, BBT -2.6%, GOOG -2.1%, BAC -1.7%... Select financials pulling back: AIB -6.4%, LYG -3.6%, AZ -3.1%, HIG -3.0%, COF -2.7%, DB -2.4%, GNW -2.4%, FITB -2.3%, STD -2.3%, PNC -1.6%, WFC -1.6%, MS -1.5%, USB -1.5%, AIG -1.4%, AXA -1.3%, BCS -1.2%... Select metals/mining related names trading lower: HL -4.8%, GFI -2.6%, RTP -2.4%, AAUK -2.4%, MT -2.0%, VALE -1.9%, AU -1.8%, BBL -1.7%, BHP -1.2%, SLV -1.1%, GG -1.1%... Select oil/gas names ticking lower: CHK -2.2%, BTU -1.9%, HAL -1.5%, E -1.3%, OXY -1.2%, BP -1.1%, XOM -1.0%... Other news: OCN -6.9% (filed for a $300 mln common stock shelf offering), MELA -3.5% (announced a 2.4 mln share registered direct common stock offering priced at $6.25/share), VOD -3.2% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: ACGY -5.7% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), AKAM -4.6% (added to Americas Sell list at Goldman- Reuters), JCI -4.2% (added to Conviction Sell list at Goldman- Reuters), SCHN -3.4% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), TLEO -3.1% (light volume; downgraded to Underperform at FBR Capital), NOK -2.5% (downgraded to Reduce from Add at Natixis, downgraded to Mkt Perform at Charter Equity and downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS).
  • HOG-i suhtes leidub ka optimiste:

    -) RBC Capital raises their HOG tgt to $20 from $16 following the co's Q2 results.... However, the firm notes that they are warming to HOGS story based on growing evidence that the co can be sufficiently profitable in an environment of very weak demand. Importantly, management reaffirmed full-year gross margin guidance despite cutting full-year production plans by about 50k bikes. The slowing rate of negative leverage, coupled with accelerating cost cutting plans, is encouraging to the firm.

    -) Deutsche jääb oma positiivse teesi juurde. Hinnasiht endiselt $21, mis baseerub samaks jäänud 2010. a prognoosidel (EPS $1.85), kuid 2009. kasumiootust langetatakse $1.53-lt $0.95-ni.
  • Tehnoloogias ootused ikka päris kõrgele kruvitud -> TXN sai INTC-i tulemustest tuule tiibadesse ja rühib ülesspoole. Viimase 3 kauplemispäevaga on ~10% tõustud läbi 9 kuu tippude ja vastupanu, mis kruvib ootused esmaspäeva järelturul avaldatavate tulemuste osas üsna kõrgele. TXN kolmapäevane +4% gap up avanemine jäi samuti täitmata.
  • mis toimub Gigamediaga? aktsia on kuidagi liiga nõrk!

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