LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 21. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eile avaldas Imax (IMAX) andmed, kuidas Harry Potteri järjekordsel filmil Imaxi-ekraanidel läinud on. Kuna rahvusvaheliselt esilinastus film eelmisel kolmapäeval, siis esimese viie päeva peale teeniti 62s Imaxi kinos rekordilised $3.6 miljonit. Hoolimata rekorditest ollakse Euroopas Imaxi populaarsuse osas veel USAst maas, keskmine tulu ekraani kohta oli $58000, samal ajal esilinastunud kolmes USA Imaxi kinos oli vastav näitaja $143000. Järgmisel kolmapäeval hakatakse filmi näitama veel 161s USA kinos, mis tõstab globaalselt Harry Potterit näitavate Imaxi kinode arvu 231-ni.
  • Terast pilku hoiame endiselt tulemuste hooajal. Teine nädal on alanud samas noodis eelmisega, kui ettevõtete käibed jäävad ligilähedaseks ootustele kuid aktsiakasumit lüüakse tänu agrassiivsele kulude kärpimisele ja analüütikute üsna madalatele ootustele. Täna avaldavad enne turgu oma raporti sellised ettevõtted nagu:Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, Merck, Schering-Plough ning peale turgu AMD, Apple, Starbucks, Yahoo! 
  • Eesti aja järgi kell 17.00 esineb Bernanke oma poolaasta aruandega Kongressi ees, mida turud on harilikult jälginud üsna tähelepanelikult. Madise välja toodud artikkel peegeldab tõenäoliselt suuresti seda, millele keskpanga juht täna õhtul rõhu asetab.
  • Tänaseks kaheks tähtsamaks kvartalitulemuste avaldajaks võib pidada Caterpillarit (CAT) ja Apple't (AAPL). Esimene neist avaldab tulemused enne turgude avanemist, teine peale sulgemist.

    Caterpillarilt oodatakse tulusid $8.86 miljardit ja aktsiapõhist kasumit $0.22. Eile tõusis aktsia 7.8%, kui BofA analüütik andis aktsiale ostusoovituse, viidates raskemasinate tsüklilisele põhjale teises kvartalis. Samas oodatakse turul endiselt, et Põhja-Ameerika müügimahud võisid kvartali jooksul langeda üle 50% yoy, mõningane leevendus võiks tulla arenevatest riikidest.
  • Analüütikud on Apple’i (AAPL) suhtes valdavalt positiivsed ning tulemuste eel prognoose kergitamas. Põhjuseks mõistagi fenomenaalset edu nautiv iPhone, millelt oodatakse jätkuvalt tugevaid müüginumbreid. Seda enam, et hiljuti alandati odavaima iPhone’i mudeli hind vaid $99-ni. Samuti nähakse tänu uuele 13“ Macbook Pro’le head minekut ka Apple’i sülearvutite müüginumbrites. Mitmete toodete hinnakärped suunavad investorite fookuse Apple’i brutomarginaalidele, mis seni on püsinud märkimisväärselt tugevad.

    Ootused on kahtlemata kõrged, sest Intel’i (INTC) konverentsikõnel kõlanud kommentaarid PC-turu kohta olid väga optimistlikud. Samuti ei jahutanud investorite indu Nokia (NOK) kesised tulemused – pigem nähakse konkurendi suutmatust nutitelefoni turul positiivse tegurina
  • Apple on alates 2006. aasta detsembrist löönud oma kvartaalset aktsiakasumi prognoosi keskmiselt 39% ning käibe ootust 7%. Seega juunis väljastatud numbrite kohaselt (EPS 0.98 USD ja müügitulu 7.8 mld USD) peaksid tänaõhtused näitajad olema 1.36 dollarit aktsia kohta ja 8.35 mld dollarit genereeritud müügitulu. Konsensus ootab aga vastavalt $1.16 ja $8.18 mld. Graafik Businessinsideri vahendusel:

  • Credit Suisse tõstab S&P500 2009. aastalõpu prognoosi 920 punkilt 1050'le. Kuigi rong lahkus juba märtsis jaamast, pöörati nüüd strateegia ümber - aktsiad "overweight" & valitsuse võlakirjad "benchmark"
  • Real Baa Yields are Now Way Below the ‘Magical 5%’
  • More fuel to the fire from CSFB:

    Bottom Line: UPGRADING Equities to OVERWEIGHT, RAISING S&P 500 year-end target to 1,050 ( from 920).
    We believe we’re halfway through the first ‘V’ of an upward sloping W-shaped recovery, with a likely peak in early Q4. Earnings revisions are now positive
    for the first time since Aug ‘07 in spite of margins still being above levels at which they troughed in prev. recessions. Risk & sentiment indicators have
    returned to more normal levels (VIX, IG credit spreads, ISM new orders). Some tactical indicators have improved (net issuance reached 2.5% of mkt cap 6
    weeks ago and is now 0). Lower core inflation dampens fears of monetary tightening, keeps mortgage rates low and supports valuations.
  • CAT tulemused üle ootuste, tõstab 2009. aasta kasumiprognoosi, S&P futuur teeb oma 0,5% tõusu
  • päris kõvasti üle 0.72 v 0.22
  • Kuidas parem EPS saadakse? Ikka läbi kulude kokkuhoiu, CATi tulud olid kohutavad ning 2009. aasta jääb alla konsensuse. Samas on kõrgem EPS loomulikult hea, lihtsalt tahaks näha ka tugevat top-line'i.
  • EPS 0.72 oli excluding redundancy costs, ilma selleta 0.60

    redundancy costs on vist töötajate arvu vähendamisega seotud kulud?

  • Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +1.4%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.3%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.0%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.3%
    Venemaa MICEX +2.5%
    Poola WIG +0.9%

    Hiina indeksite dramaatiline 1.6%-line langus on ühtlasi viie viimase nädala suurim :)

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.7%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.0%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.6%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.6%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq  +0.5%
    Tai Set 50 -0.8%
    India Sensex 30 -0.9%

  • Valuutaturul on EUR/USD hetkel 1.4231 dollari juures, mis on madalamal eilsest 1.4250 tipust. EUR/USD sõltub hetkel suuresti riskitaluvusest & on tugevalt aktsiaturgude tõusuga korreleerunud. Lühiajaliselt paar põhjust, miks valuutapaar võiks pigem siit allapoole sõita:

    -aktsiaturgudel on tõus võimas & siit on raske riskitaluvust veelgi suurendada

    -dollari kui reservvaluuta debatt on hetkel raugemas (vähemalt on hiinlased mõni nädal vaikinud)

    -Fed tahab näidata, et suudab inflatsiooni kontrollida (loe eelnevalt Madise poolt pandud Bernanke artiklit)

    -tähelepanu on pos. pikaajalistel trendidel (USA kaubandusbilanss paraneb, ameeriklased on hakanud säästma)

    Kui aktsiaturud peaks aga jätkama tõusu, kuna sarnaselt CAT’ile on 2Q09 tulemused (vähemalt kasumid) siiani olnud oodatust paremad, siis võib €/$ eilsest 14250 tipust läbi põrutada ja järgmine oluline tase on 2009. aasta tipp 1.4339.

     

  • Avoid Euphoria and Undue Pessimism Alike
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/21/2009 9:11 AM EDT

    It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link in the chain of destiny can be handled at a time.
    -- Winston Churchill

    The Nasdaq has been up nine days in a row for the first time in about 10 years. With a highly anticipated positive earnings report from Apple (AAPL) tonight and some good earnings from Caterpillar (CAT) , Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) , Coke (KO) and Texas Instruments (TXN) this morning, the quest for a 10th day of gains is off to a good start.

    Earnings reports continue to show good bottom-line results relative to expectations due primarily to massive cost-cutting, but revenue growth has been anemic at best. The market doesn't much care right now, and as long as the bottom-line number beats analysts' expectations we are seeing positive results. Even stocks that have run up quite a bit the past week such as CAT are jumping on their numbers. One exception is TXN, which had a solid report but is seeing a "sell the news" reaction after running straight up since the Intel (INTC) report last week.

    The market has had a remarkable move over the past week, with an almost parabolic rise. A lot of folks like those on CNBC's "Fast Money" are giddy with delight, but for market players looking to make new buys, this market presents quite a dilemma. Obviously we have very strong momentum, as we have been going straight up, but that produces extended and overbought charts that don't invite good entries. In addition, with more major earnings reports, the potential for a "sell the news" reaction is increased. It is going to be particularly interesting to see how AAPL reacts tonight. Expectations are extremely high and the stock has moved up from about $136 to $153 over the past week as everyone is looking for blowout numbers.

    So do we take our idle cash and dive into this market that has gone straight up for nine days in a row now? Maybe if we can find stocks that aren't too extended already. There are some, but they are tough to find and if they have been lagging the market, you have to wonder if there is a reason for it.

    Even if you are unwilling to pay up for some of these stocks that have made big moves, that doesn't mean you should be unduly bearish or aggressively shorting. One of the keys to success in the market is to not fight the prevailing trend. Markets that are trending strongly don't quickly or easily reverse. There is always a big group of folks who have been left behind who are anxious to jump in on slight pullbacks. That underlying support will only go away after the market has struggled for a bit and stops making major gains.

    The important thing now is to not get sucked into the euphoria after the market has already made its move -- don't throw caution to the wind. If you are going to make some buys, then stay disciplined and don't just grab something because you are frustrated with not being more heavily invested over the past week.

    With AAPL earnings tonight and Ben Bernanke testifying before Congress today, the market is likely to hold steady. With the number of extended stocks out there, though, new buys are going to be very difficult.
    --------------------------------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: JDAS +21.1%, LAB +14.9% (light volume), PKG +14.8% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), USPH +13.3%, MAIL +12.7%, CAT +10.1%, JEF +8.4%, LM +5.5%, MICC +5.2%, UNH +4.9%, DD +4.0%, MRK +3.3%, BSX +2.9%, FCX +2.8%, AMTD +2.7%, ELN +2.5%, MDRX +2.0%, DGX +2.0%, BLK +1.7%... Select solar names ticking higher: JASO +6.4%, YGE +5.7%, SOL +5.6%, STP +5.3%, TSL +3.1%, FSLR +2.8%... Select construction/ag related names showing strength boosted by CAT results: MTW +6.1%, DE +4.4%, JOYG +4.3%, TEX +2.8%... Select casino related names trading higher: LVS +5.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), WYNN +3.9%, ACAS +2.8%... Other news: CGEN +13.5% (announces 'positive' therapeutic effects of novel peptide in animal model of retinopathy), LXRX +12.9% (light volume; drug candidate LX1032 for carcinoid syndrome receives orphan drug designation from EMEA), PLX +10.5% (still checking), HNT +9.8% (UnitedHealthcare to acquire Health Net's Northeast licenses and rights to renew membership), CIT +8.0% (announces $3 bln credit facility and initiates recapitalization plan), ALKS +7.0% (Exenatide once weekly provided superior glucose control compared to Lantus in head-to-head DURATION-3 study), INCY +5.8% (reaches agreement with FDA on a Special Protocol Assessment for INCB18424 in myelofibrosis), RBS +4.0% (still checking), SPPI +3.9% (says FDA designates Fast Track status for Apaziquone for bladder cancer), MON +3.1% (Monsanto, Dow AgroSciences complete U.S. and Canadian Regulatory Authorizations for SmartStax corn; plans set to launch seed platform on 3-4 mln-plus acres), AMLN +1.1% (Exenatide once weekly provided superior glucose control compared to Lantus in head-to-head DURATION-3 study)... Analyst comments: IP +6.2% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), USB +1.1% (initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: IDIX -10.0%, LXK -9.4%, RF -8.7%, ZION -6.7% (also downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), FWRD -5.6% (light volume), WERN -4.1%, STT -3.9%, EW -2.7%, ICUI -2.4%, BTU -2.4%, TXN -1.9%, UTX -1.7%... Other news: CVBF -8.0% (commences an offering of ~$115 mln of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), CGA -6.4% (prices 3.5 mln share common stock offering at $7.15/share), STSA -6.3% (announces filing of universal shelf registration), CEDC -1.7% (prices 8.35 mln common share offering at $24.00/share)... Analyst comments: CTXS -3.0% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), TK -1.9% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan).
  • CIT Group räägib turgu veidi alla ... Says if it does not receive enough tenders of August 17 notes and a minimum tender condition is not waived, it may need to file for bankruptcy absent alternative financing
  • Henno küsimusele on siin jäänud enne vastamata. Teen seda siis ise. 'Redundancy costs' puhul on tegu puhtalt 'koondamiskuludega' (mis on oma olemuselt ühekordsed kulutused).
  • Senate Finance Committee's Baucus says panel making 'significant headway' in bipartisan talks on healthcare bill
    Ja turg spikes sellise pealkirja peale????
    Ja veel selline ettepanek:
    US Treasury sends rating agency reform proposal to Hill; SEC would get power to examine ratings policies, procedures
  • Moodyse poolt huvitavat lugemist:

    Moody's says U.S. commercial real estate markets' decline accelerates

    The downward spiral in commercial real estate market fundamentals has accelerated as the recession persists, Moody's Investors Service says in its latest Red-Yellow-Green study. For the first time in six years, none of the seven property types tracked by Moody's has a "green" or strong score, while four of the property types are at levels of weakness unmatched in the almost 10-year history of the study. The two hotel sectors--full service and limited service--continued to post lowest possible scores of 0 during the first quarter, while the industrial sector recorded its all-time worst score as it fell into red territory. Multifamily deteriorated enough to fall from green into yellow, where it joins the retail and the central business district office sectors. Moody's says that while supply pipelines do continue to dry up across all property types, forecasted demand has similarly dropped, so that demand projections for six of the seven property types worsened during the quarter. In addition, vacancy rates have maintained a steadily increasing trend among all property types (except hotels where they are not measured), and the poor absorption expectations do little to assuage the tide of availability. Given the bleak forecasts, any significant improvement in Red-Yellow-Green scores is unlikely in the coming quarters. Among hotels, year-over-year RevPAR fell below the record lows reached the previous quarter and now lag the baseline measure by levels never seen before. Moody's Red-Yellow-Green report scores markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67 -- 100 as green. The new second quarter study reflects data from the first quarter of 2009.

  • Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) said Tuesday its second-quarter net income rose to $143 million, or 10 cents a share, from $132.4 million, or 9 cents a share in the same period a year earlier. Net revenue in the period ended in June fell to $1.14 billion from $1.35 billion, the Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Internet giant said. Wall Street analysts on average had been expecting Yahoo to post second-quarter earnings of 8 cents a share and $1.14 billion in net revenue, according to data from Thomson Reuters.
  • Starbucks (SBUX) reported a third-fiscal-quarter profit of $151.5 million, or 20 cents a share. A year ago, the coffee retailer lost $6.7 million, or 1 cent a share, due to charges to cover store closures and workforce cuts. Sales fell to $2.4 billion in the recently completed quarter from a year-earlier $2.6 billion. Analysts had pegged Starbucks to earn 19 cents a share on sales of $2.37 billion, according to FactSet Research. Traffic at Starbucks stores has improved from earlier this year. Sales at stores open a year or more fell 5% during the quarter, compared with an 8% decline for quarter ended March 29. In addition, the Seattle-based company said it plans to cut $550 million in annual costs, up from its previous savings target of $500 million. Starbucks shares have steamed 55% higher this year. The stock closed Tuesday at $14.69.

    Järelturul kauplemas ~9% kõrgemal.
  • Apple (AAPL) Q3 net income $1.35 vs $1.19 a share, Q3 revenue $8.34 bln vs $7.46 bln. Esimene reaktsioon -2% kuid nüüd kauplemas ~$155 tasemel. Apple sells 10.2 mln iPods in Q3, down 7%. Q4 EPS of $1.18-$1.23 Apple targets Q4 rev of $8.7 bln-$8.9 bln.
  • Ma pole just kõige kirkam kriit karbis, aga Apple järelturu pluss jääb mulle natuke arusaamatuks:
    a) Kõik analüütikud ja nende vanaema naabri lellepojad rääkisid ette, et tuleb täitsa tugev kvartal. Aktsia seetõttu viimase kolmveerand aasta tippude juures ja mitte kaugel kõigi aegade tippudest.
    b) Tulemused on tugevad, aga kus on üllatus? Kas tõesti keegi ootas, et numbrid tulevad kurvemad? Kõik numbrid, nii iPhone, Macid, iPodid, samuti top- ja bottom line, marginaalid jne on suhteliselt ootustele vastavad.
    c) Järgmise kvartali guidance paistab esmapilgul varasemast vähem allpool "ootusi". Antud juhul ootused jutumärkides, sest Apple on alati guidancega võrreldes järgmise kvartali analüütikute konsensusega konservatiivne olnud. See paistab ka olevat põhiline põhjus, miks aktsia üleval on..
    d) AAPL aktsiale on praegu 13 Strong Buy, 16 Buy, 8 Hold ja 2 Underperform reitingut. Kinda ühesse auku või mis?

    Ühesõnaga, mis ma öelda tahan: tulemused ja prognoosid on kõik head, aga.. see ei tohiks kedagi üllatada ja kes selle peale ostma tuleks?

    Seega virtuaalne short AAPL @ $158. Homme ootaks kasumivõttu ja võibolla ka 1-2 valuatsioonipõhist downgradet.
  • Tegelt, downgradesid ei usu, see on ikka äärmiselt haruldane juhus, kui analüütik downgradeb nii jälgitavat aktsiat valuatsiooni peale heade tulemuste järel.
    Target oleks $150 homme päeva lõpuks. Virtuaalne treid nagu juba öeldud :)
  • Miks ainult virtuaalne siis? Short it to hell! :)
  • Värvilised joonekesed ehk abiks? Aastasel graafikul on Fib 78,6 tase $158. Heade tulemuste peale liiguti kõrgema leveli piirile. Kui homme ES tõuseb (asub ka olulise piiri peal), siis tõuseb ka AAPL. Kui ES kukub, siis saad oma lühikesega plussi.
  • Lisaks projektsioon liikumisest, millega lennati lippu sisse, mis eeldab, et sealt sama palju välja lennatakse.
    Niisiis tehniliselt kaks põhjust liikumisele.
  • jim, AAPL suudab lisaks heale tootele ka om religiooni väikest viisi genereerida. ntx. Cook stuck to his mantra: that Apple’s goal is not to build the most computers, but to build the best computers. jne.
    Üllatuste puudumine rõhutab ka stabiilsust ja seda me kõik otsime!
  • Väike huumor, kuid arvestatav.
    Näen, et S&P teeb aasta tipu tasemel 999.
  • Nojah, AAPL on maailma parim aktsia ja üldse aktsiad ei kuku enam kunagi. Nii et sitt treid. Kõiki aktsiaid tuleb ainult osta.

Teemade nimekirja