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Börsipäev 22. september

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eile päeva esimesel poolel protsendi jagu punasesse vajunud SP500 ja Dow Jones suutsid hiljem kaotust veidi leevenda, sulgudes -0.3% madalamal. Kui nõrgemaks jäid eelkõige finants- ja toorainesektori aktsiad, siis tehnoloogia  tugevus suutis Nasdaqi +0.2% plussi vedada.
    Tänast börsipäeva on alustatud positiivsel noodil nii Aasias kui Euroopas. 0.4% kõrgemale on liikunud ka USA futuurid.
    Väga olulist makrot täna oodata pole, kui laual on Richmond Fedi tootmisindeks ja US FHFA majahindade indeks, mis mõlemad tulevad avaldamisele kell 17.00

  • Goldman on jätkuvalt seda meelt, et 2010. aasta lõpuks maksab nafta barrel 95 dollarit. Fundamentaalseks tugevuseks saab analüüsimaja arvates olema nõudluse taastumine eelkõige arenevates maades. Kui varem näitasid antud riigid kõrget majanduskasvu suhteliselt madala nafta nõudluse juures siis nüüd on tarbimine jõudsalt lähenemas OECD riikide tasemetele. Kuna IEA nafta 2010 aasta päevase tarbimise prognoos jääb nüüd kõigest 800 000 barreli võrra väiksemaks 2007. aasta rekordtasemest, hakkavad pakkumispoolsed piirangud mõjuma hinnale sarnase katalütosaatorina nagu 2008. aastal, mil barreli hind üle 140 dollari liikus.

     

  • Veel üks arvamus, kus rõhutatakse, et majanduslangus on nüüdseks selja taga ning et tõenäosus kiratsevaks majanduskasvuks on väga suure globaalse valitsusepoolsete majanduse abipakettidest ja 0%listest intressimääradest tuleneva likviidsuse tõttu väga väike. Huvitav aga ehk see, et Ryding usub, et USA ekspordib end neist probleemidest välja - ehk siis et muu maailm tirib maailma suurima majanduse sellest majandusaugust välja.

  • EUR/USD kauples esimest korda sellel aastal 1.48 dollarist kõrgemal!
  • Seda, miks Hispaani võib hakata tõsiselt komplitseerima Euroopa Keskpanga rahapoliitika koordineerimist, ilmestab riigi ühe tunnustatuima kinnisvaraanalüütiku R. R. de Acuña & Asociados aastaraport. Siin on mõned lõigud (fistfulofeuros vahendusel):

    •  At end of 2008 the supply of property for sale or under construction was 1,623,042
    • Annual demand estimated as follows: 233,000 in 2008, and 218,000 in 2009. That means there are some 1,6 million homes on the market, whilst demand in the next few years is expected to run at around 220,000 homes. At current levels of demand it will take 6 to 7 years for the real estate sector to recover. So it could take until 2016 for the market to digest the current property glut.
    • The only way developers and banks will get rid of the glut of property in the medium term is selling at a loss.
    • After falling 1.83% in 2008, overall prices will fall 9.55% in 2009, 9.32% in 2010, and 4.81% in 2011, a cumulative fall of just under 25.5% in nominal terms.
    • Thanks to long lead times in the construction business, the full economic impact of the collapse in residential construction is yet to be felt. The darkest hour for the Spanish economy will come in the second half of 2010, when unemployment could reach 25%.
    • Recovery won’t come until 2013, by which time the sector will be just half the size it used to be, if that.
  • Ma pean Euroopa majandusele ja euro kursile suurimaks ohuks just seda, kui ühel hetkel Itaalia, Hispaania ja Kreeka majandused üle serva lükatakse. Sealt tuleb tõsine surve kogu eurotsooni stabiilsusele.
    See on ka üks põhjus, miks ma mõne aasta perspektiivis olen dollari suhtes positiivne... seda just euro suhtes.
  • Hetkel on euro dollari vastu läbi murdnud tasemest 1,48 EUR/USD. Lühiajaliselt peab siis jätkuvalt uskuma majanduse, aktsiaturgude ja toorainete hinnatõusu
  • Kindlasti tasub jälgida, mis kommentaarid tulevad homme toimuvalt Fedi miitingult. EUR/USDi nõrgenemine annab märku, et turg ei taha kuulda exit-strateegiatest ja vihjeid varajastest intressimäärade tõusust. Siin veel kaks kogemust liiga varajastest "väljumisstrateegiatest", mis põhjustasid hiljem deflatsiooni: 

  • Kui Erko kirjutas hommikul Goldmani kõrgematest naftahinna ootustest ja viimase aja naftavarude vähenemisest, siis panen siia alla ka omad graafikud. Nagu näha, siis toornafta varud on tõepoolest vähenenud, kuid mis on pikemas perspektiivis aga veelgi olulisem, on see, et varud inimese kohta või varud mootorsõiduki kohta on tippudest ikka valgusaastate kaugusel... Koos kasvava rahvaarvu ja majandusega kasvab energianõudlus ning kui eesmärk on hoida stabiilseid reserve tarbimise suhtes, siis tegelikult peaksid reservid nominaalselt tegema kogu aeg uusi tippe.

    Alumisel graafikul on oranži joonega tähistatud mootorkütuste nõudluse muutus eelmise aasta suhtes. Viimase paari nädala hüpet võib osaliselt seostada sellega, et kui eelmine aasta kimbutasid Mehhiko lahte ja selle läheduses elavaid inimesi orkaanid Hanna, Ike ja Gustav, siis see aasta on sellel rindel olnud vaikus ning majal uste ja akende kinnilöömise ning keldris redutamise asemel on olnud inimestel võimalik väljas oma neljarattalise sõbraga rohkem ringi sõita.

  • Veel täna enne USA turu avanemist oodatakse Carnivali (CCL) tulemusi. Aktsiapõhiseks kasumiks oodatakse $1.18 ning müügituluks $4.06 miljardit.
  • krat saab keegi aru miks AIG ...SPY-d üles ei vea?
  • Analüütikutelt täna palju positiivseid kommentaare Venemaa suunal:

    Investors should boost Russian holdings because “cheap” valuations will help lift the dollar- denominated RTS Index by 25 percent, Goldman analyst Sergei Arsenyev in Moscow wrote, without specifying a timeframe.

    “Earnings growth is set to be explosive,” wrote UBS’s Moscow-based economist Clemens Grafe, who predicted profits will exceed analysts’ estimates by about 30 percent as companies cut costs and revenues rebound. “The market rally is fundamentally justified.” 

    OAO Sberbank, Russia’s largest lender, may jump 66 percent by the end of 2010, according to JPMorgan Moscow-based analyst Alex Kantarovich. (allikas Bloomberg)

    Venamaa aktsiate käekäiku USA börsil kajastab börsil kaubeldav fond RSX:

    Even after this year’s rally, shares are valued at 7.6 times analysts’ estimates for 2010 earnings, about 40 percent cheaper than the average for emerging markets, according to UBS’s Grafe. (allikas Bloomberg)

  • abesiki, ma ei tea kui tõsiselt üldse AIG aktsialiikumisesse enam suhtutakse. +/-10%lised päevased liikumised on muutnud selle paljude jaoks kauplemisvahendiks, aga see on ka kõik.
  • Marc Faber on oma viimast septembrikuus välja antud 'The Boom, Gloom & Doom Reporti' sisu lahkamas selles intervjuus siin. Faber on eelkõige kritiseerimas Föderaalreservi tegevust 'raha printimisel' ning USA valitsust defitsiitidega eelarvete koostamisel. Tulevikus näeb ta kõrgemat inflatsiooni nin ameeriklaste ja eurooplaste elustandardite alanemist.

    Faberi põhisõnum on lihtne - USAs pole selle kriisiga mitte midagi lahendatud. Üksnes võlga on juurde tekitatud.

  • WSJs täna lugu. Väljend "stabilizing" oli kogu asja võti ..mis siis, et artikkel eilse loo valguses.

    AIG is showing signs of stabilizing - WSJ (48.40 )
    The Wall Street Journal reports AIG (AIG) is showing signs of stabilizing, but it is too early to tell whether the co can restructure its businesses and repay taxpayers, a government watchdog concluded. Meanwhile, the head of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee instructed his staff to look at a proposal from former AIG head Maurice R. "Hank" Greenberg for restructuring the government's bailout of the co, a spokeswoman for the committee confirmed. The Government Accountability Office said in a new report, released on Monday, that "AIG's recovery will depend not only on the long-term health of the company but also on market conditions, and other factors." AIG is making strides winding down the financial-products division, where bets nearly toppled the co, the report concluded. In addition, AIG's insurance operations, a crucial component of its restructuring plans, are showing signs of improvement. AIG's property/casualty and life and retirement-services units have maintained capital levels above the minimum requirements, the GAO said. And a $26 bln gap between withdrawals and deposits in the life and retirement-services unit has shrunk to $3 bln in the second quarter. The GAO also noted that the cost of purchasing protection against default of AIG's unsecured debt has fallen. However, the GAO said it was too early to tell whether these premiums are stabilizing.
  • Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +1.17%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.75%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.85%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.21%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0.86%
    Venemaa MICEX +2.91%
    Poola WIG +3.52%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng  +1.06%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.34%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine)  -1.70%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.73%
    Tai Set 50 +1.70%
    India Sensex 30 +0.87%

  • Bulls Look to Take Control
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    9/22/2009 8:40 AM EDT

    Great works are performed not by strength, but by perseverance.
    -- Samuel Johnson

    After a couple days of mixed action, the bulls are back on their horses and ready to ride. The S&P 500 is down about 1% over the last three days, which isn't much, but it is enough to make the indices a little less extended and invite some buying. The bulls haven't suffered any real pain for a while, so they tend to regain their aggressiveness very quickly after brief pullbacks.

    The indices are still technically extended, and we have to play the balancing act of respecting momentum while staying aware of the danger of buying a lofty market. When we have moves like the one we've had off the September lows, the chances of a nasty profit-taking dip are quite high. We have had minor pullbacks the last couple of days, but the buyers were very fast to jump in and hold us steady.

    In a market like this, don't let the fact that the indices are extended blind you to other opportunities that may exist. There has been positive trading to be found as we continue to scale this high wire of a market.

    My strategy has been to continue to respect the momentum as we keep going higher but to focus on the shorter term and keep stops tighter. I don't want to keep anticipating a pullback that doesn't come. In a market like this, it is so easy to do that prematurely and be left out as we keep on chugging along.

    This has been an unusual market for quite a while now -- it has been so strong but also so unloved at the same time. After what we went through, folks are understandably not very trustful, especially when the market is going straight up and acting like our financial crisis was just a temporary setback without any longer-term repercussions.

    I feel quite strongly that we will see a substantial pullback at some point, but I have no idea when that might be, and the technical action isn't indicating any immediate problems. We have to trade what is in front of us right now, and what is in front of us is some very positive action.

    This morning the dollar is weaker again, which has been a good thing for the bulls lately because it supports commodity prices and overseas business. Gold, oil, steel, coal, etc. tend to act well on the weak dollar. We also have upgrades of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Goldman Sachs (GS) . Some news that a record 7.58% of homeowners are 30 days or more past due on their mortgages in August is on the wires, but that sort of news hasn't bothered the market at all lately. The big worry is that this train is running and that we won't be on board.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OCLR +18.6%, RAIL +11.6%, KMX +7.1%, FDS +4.3% (light volume), SNX +2.7%... M&A news: CBY +1.8% (Cadbury CEO eases talk about bid from Kraft - WSJ)... Select financial names showing strength: FFBC +8.8% (discloses investor update in 8-k slides), AIG +6.9% (AIG is showing signs of stabilizing - WSJ), FRE +4.4%, CS +3.6% (Credit Suisse voices confidence on private banking growth - WSJ), C +2.7%, GNW +2.7%, ABB +2.6%, BAC +2.6% (BofA to pay $425 mln over toxic assets - Financial Times; Bank of America terminates asset guarantee term sheet), HIG +2.2%, AZ +2.1% (Allianz to delist from NYSE, some European exchanges - DJ), AXA +1.9%, STD +1.5% (Banco Santander Central may bid for Intesa Sanpaolo's Fideuram, according to report - DJ), MS +1.1%... Select metals/mining names trading higher boosted by weaker dollar: IVAN +7.2%, HL +5.3%, AUY +3.6%, BHP +3.2%, GDX +3.1%, RTP +3.0% (Rio to sell Alcan Composites Unit - WSJ), IAG +3.0%, GOLD +3.0%, GG +3.0%, ABX +2.6%, GFI +2.6%, BBL +2.4%, AEM +2.4%, MT +2.1%, VALE +1.95%, GLD +1.5%... Select oil/gas names seeing early strength: E +3.2%, STO +3.1%, SU +2.2%, BP +2.2%, RDS.A +1.7%, SLB +1.6%... Select European drug names trading higher: NVS +2.0%, AZN +1.7%... Other news: BSDM +17.0% (reports that significant and "medical practice changing" clinical study results were the subject of a news briefing), CRXX +16.7% (Combinatorx and Neuromed announce posting of briefing documents for FDA advisory committee), BKE +8.5% (announces a $1.80 per share special one-time cash dividend and a $0.20 per share regular quarterly dividend),CYTK +6.7% (continued momentum from yesterday's 20% pop), ASTI +6.6% (Signs Portable Power Product Supply Agreement), CHIP +5.4% (continued momentum from yesterday's 100%+surge higher), LDK +4.7% (still checking), NKTR +4.5% (shows encouraging anti-tumor activity in ovarian cancer in Phase 1 and preclinical data), NLY +3.7% (declared a 3Q09 common stock dividend of $0.69/share, payable October 29, '09), ADLR +3.0% (acquires rights to clinical-stage product candidate from eli lilly and Company), CBY +1.8% (Cadbury CEO eases talk about bid from Kraft - WSJ), AMAT +1.5% (Applied Materials awarded multi-year service contract from ENN Solar Energy)... Analyst comments: DNN +9.5% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James), M +6.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), FSYS +5.0% (upgraded to Buy from Accumulate at ThinkEquity), ANR +4.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), AMMD +4.0% (upgraded to Buy at SunTrust), PLX +3.7% (initiated with a Buy at Canaccord), BTU +3.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), X +2.9% (upgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), LNCR +2.8% (added to Top Picks Live list at Citigroup), HPQ +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), DNDN +1.8% (initiated with Outperform at Leerink Swann).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DDRX -6.1% (light volume), LINC -3.1% (also announces public equity offering by a selling stockholder), LOW -1.2%... Select education related names pulling back: COCO -4.5%, ESI -3.0%, APOL -1.8%... Select airlines showing weakness: AMR -4.8% (announces 30 mln common share and $250 mln of convertible senior notes offering), UAUA -3.1%, LCC -1.7%... Other news: LIME -14.3% (prices public offering of 5 mln shares of common stock at $5.50/share), LPX -4.4% (files 18 mln share common stock offering), DAN -4.3% (announces public offering of common stock of 27 mln shares of common stock), FSC -4.2% (commences public offering of 4 mln shares of its common stock), PAL -3.5% (announces C$15 mln bought deal financing of flow-through shares), EPD -3.0% (announces a public offering of 7.25 mln shares of common stock).
  • Carnival beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus; raised FY09 EPS above consensus (32.00). Reports Q3 (Aug) earnings of $1.33 per share, $0.15 better than the First Call consensus of $1.18; revenues fell 14.0% year/year to $4.14 bln vs the $4.06 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.16-0.20 vs. $0.22 consensus. Co raised guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $2.16-2.20 vs. $2.05 consensus, up from $2.00-2.10. Based primarily on the strength in Q3, the co now expects full year net revenue yields, on a constant dollar basis, to decrease 10%, at the better end of its previous guidance range of down 10-12%. The co forecasts a 14% decline in net revenue yields on a current dollar basis for the full year 2009 compared to 2008 caused by unfavorable movements in currency exchange rates. Fourth quarter constant dollar net revenue yields are expected to decline in the 11-13% range (down 9-11% on a current dollar basis). Net cruise costs excluding fuel, for Q4 are expected to be down slightly compared to the prior year on a constant dollar basis.
  • Marc Faber on kahe videolõigu vahendusel selgitamas, miks on tasub järgmised kaks-kolm aastat aktsiates olla (siin) ning miks muutub tulevik pärast seda märksa tumedamaks (siin).  

  • Erko, ma jõudsin sama lingiga sust poole tunni jagu ette : )

    Aga hea, et ka sulle silma jäi ning mõtete lendulaskmise jaoks on Faberit tõepoolest hea kuulata.
  • Rosenberg kommenteerimas cash-for-clunkers programmi-järgset autoturu ärakukkumist. Nagu oodata võiski, toodi ostjad tulevikus ettepoole ära.

    Edmunds.com just reported that U.S. motor vehicle sales so far in September are running at an 8.8 million annual rate — a 28-year low and a 38% plunge from the incentive-induced 14.1 million tally in August. If this is what autos do, imagine what housing does once the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit expires (if it does) at the end of November (not to mention what the Fed does in terms of extending its mortgage purchase program beyond the December expiry too — it has had a hand in financing 80% of all new mortgage issuance. But look at the good news — at least we will be able to see what the economy can do without the walker.
  • CIT Group shares moving higher; move attributed to rumor that government could potentially fund CIT +15% juba.
  • ThinkEquity kasutas FuelSystemsi (FSYS) viimase nädala aktsiahinna langust ära ning tuli täna hommikul välja omapoolse hinnasihi ja soovituse kergitamisega. 'Neutraalse' pealt tõstetakse soovitus 'osta' peale ning hinnasiht $24 pealt $41 peale. Aktsiat on see igaljuhul täna lennutanud ning FSYS üle 10% plussis.

    Tõepoolest - ettevõte on pikaajaliselt väga huvitav ja usume, et aktsial tasub silm peal hoida, kuid et uuesti hea riski-tulu suhtega pikaajalisi investeerimispositsioone selles võtta soovitada, jääme ootama madalamaid hinnatasemeid või oluliselt paremaid kvartalitulemusi.

  • Sector ETF strength & weakness @ midday

    Leading Sector ETFs:
    SPDRS metals/mining- XME +4%, Heating oil futures- UHN +3.5%, Coal- KOL +3.5%, Crude/WTI oil- USO +3%, OIL +3%, iShares REITS/real estate- ICF +3%, IYR +2%, Steel- SLX +3%, Gold miners- GDX +3%, RBOB gas futures- UGA +2.5%, Solar power- TAN +2%, KWT +2%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +2%, Comm banks- KBE +2%, Silver- SLV +2%, Clean energy- PBW +2%, Dry-bulk shippers- SEA +2%

    Lagging Sector ETFs:
    Biotech- XBI -1.5%, BBH -1%, IBB -1%, US dollar index- UUP -1%, SPDRS utilities- XLU -.5%, US bonds- TLT -.5%

  • $43 bln, 2-year Note Auction Results: Yield 1.034% (1.0296% expected); Bid/Cover 3.23x (10 auction avg 2.65x); Indirect Bidders 45.2% (10 auction avg 41.5%)

    Ja kerge müük asendus ostusurvega:)
  • Oeh, keegi müüs veidi vist. Turg täna ikka vääga õhuke. SPY käive hetkeks 76 mio.
  • To: Schlagbaumm
    Eilse teema jätkuks -> XRT annab samuti üsna hea võimaluse ja ühtlasi tehti just 52 nädala tipud ja on väga lähedal oma 2008 aasta tipule. Võib osutuda üsna heaks sisenemiskohaks.
  • Alari, aitäh. Täna osteti üsna kobe kogus dec putte 27 strikega ja märtsi putte 34 strikega. Näib et ma ei ole ainus, kes näeb 1-4 kuu kaugusel langust terendamas :P

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