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Börsipäev 6. oktoober

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • USA aktsiaturgudel aitas eelmise nädala PMI ja tööjõuturu negatiivsetest raportitest tekkinud hirmu kustutada eilne ISM indeks, mis registreeris teenustesektori esmakordse laienemise viimase aasta jooksul ning vedas olulisemad aktsiaindeksid ca 1-1.5% kõrgemal. Aasia börsid on täna hommikul võtnud eeskuju ning kauplevad samuti rohelises.

    Dollar on öösel oluliselt nõrgenenud ning kaupleb euro suhtes tasemel 1.474. Üheks võimalikuks põhjuseks võib olla Independentis avaldatud artikkel, milles väidetakse, et mitmed riigid (Pärsia lahe riigid, Hiina, Jaapan, Brasiilia ja Venemaa) plaanivad lõpetada nafta arveldamise dollarites ning võtta selle asemel kasutusele jeenist, eurost, jüaanist, kullast ja Pärsia riikide enda plaanitavast ühisvaluutast koosneva valuutakorvi. 

    Olulist makrot täna tulemas pole.

  • Saudid panid USD-le ōla alla, vāites, et nemad pole "avantyyriga" yhinenud/yhinemas.
  • Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate from a 49-year low and signaled further increases in coming months amid signs the economy is strengthening.
    Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens increased the overnight cash rate target to 3.25 percent from 3 percent in Sydney today. Only one of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast today’s move. The rest predicted no change.
    The local currency jumped as Australia became the first Group of 20 nation to raise borrowing costs since the start of the global financial crisis more than a year ago.
  • Ja kui muu maailm on intresse tõstmas... siis kuidas ECB ja Fed sellega kaasa ei lähe? Vähemasti see on ju see baasstsenaarium, mida suurem osa analüütikutest täna ootab (intressitõstmisi alles 2011. aasta alguses või 2010. aasta viimastel kuudel). Augustis tõstis intresse Iisraeli keskpank, samuti n-ö ootamatult.
  • kas mitte Aussied ei hiilanud hiljuti fundamentaalnāitajatega, sealt ka antud otsus ilmselt.
  • Oli tõepoolest. Teise kvartali SKT kerkis nii eelneva kvartali kui ka eelmise aasta baasil 0.6%, samas kui konsensus oli oodanud 0.2%-list tõusu. Kui kvartali baasil leidub teisigi arenenud riike, mis on suutnud postiitivset kasvu näidata, siis 12 kuu võrdluses Austraaliale vastast ei leidu. Paljuski võidakse ilmselt tänulikud olla Aasia riikidele, kes oma majandust stimuleerides on toetanud läbi kaubavahetuse ka Austraalia majandust.
  • Kuigi mōned analyytikud sarjavad RBA-d liigse kiirustamise eest ("There is the risk that the move by the RBA could backfire in a double dip type scenario."). mine vōta siis kinni, yks on selge - enamus ei oodanud sellist otsust.
  • PepsiCo (PEP) on jõudnud $60st läbi ja täitnud sellega Credit Suisse'i seatud hinnasihi - täna on analüüsimaja aga väljas uue $70lise hinnasihiga ning soovitab konservatiivse ärimudeliga aktsiat jätkuvalt osta.

    Credit Suisse is raising their tgt to $70 from $60 on their expectation that by the end of '10 PEP will trade at 15x their FY10 EPS est. They do not expect multiple expansion until then. PEP will probably range-bound until the end of the year. Given the uncertainties around the bottler acquisition (primarily the concern that PEP will have to make concessions to DPS in order to keep the brands), they believe that PEP will remain rangebound until the end of the year. However, once the bottler acquisition has closed, which they expect in late December, and the DPS brand issue is resolved, investors should once again focus on the improving fundamentals under the new organizational structure.
  • Ajalooline hetk: Gold takes out is all time highs at $1033.90, set on March 17, 2008, to notch new all time highs at $1035.00
  • Kulla ETF GLD lõpetas eile 99.82 dollari juures & täna alustams +1.8% plusspoolel: 

  • Üks hommikune neg. uudis ka - Suurbritannia tööstustoodang langes 2.5% MoM vs oodatud kasv 0.2%.

     

  • DB prognoos Euroopa turgudele:

    Deutsche Bank raises DJ Stoxx 600 index year-end target to 225 from 210

    * Deutsche Bank European equity strategy: overweight oil and gas and telecoms

    * Deutsche Bank European equity strategy: underweight basic resources and utilities

  • USA turud alustavad päeva tugevas 0.5% kuni 0.7%lises plussis.

    Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +1.67%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.51%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.56%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.60%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0.90%
    Venemaa MICEX +2.38%
    Poola WIG +2.20%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.18%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.87%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.68%
    Tai Set 50 +1.98%
    India Sensex 30 +0.55%

  • No One Believes In This Market
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/6/2009 8:36 AM EDT

    Rules are mostly made to be broken and are too often for the lazy to hide behind.
    -- Douglas MacArthur

    If you are using traditional rules of technical analysis, the lower-volume bounce on Monday should not be trusted very much. After four days of selling last week, a bounce should be expected as we had become oversold. That simply means that sellers have pushed a bit too hard and that they are likely to relent for a little while and allow for some rebound. The fact that a rebound comes on lower volume is an indication that there isn't a high level of conviction among the buyers and that many are wary that the downtrend will quickly resume.

    The problem with the standard technical view of this market is that it hasn't worked very well for quite a while. Consistently, since the March low, we have bounced on light volume and just kept on going. We didn't quickly falter or roll over. We have bounced and gone straight back up. For example, in early September, after selling off for four straight days, we bounced on lower volume the next two and then continued higher on six of the next seven days as volume increased. In August, we sold off for two days, bounced the next two on lower volume and then made a new high two days later on a big surge in volume.

    That is obviously very positive action, but it isn't what you'd typically look for as you contemplate the charts. The quickness and aggressiveness of the recoveries tells us that this isn't a typical market. Other emotions and psychology are at work, causing the market action to continue out of the norm.

    The driving force for this action is that people just haven't believed in this market. After the collapse last year and early this year, there has been great hesitancy to embrace the market and believe the worst is over. Aren't we supposed to have a bear-market bounce or two rather than just a V-shaped recovery. especially when we went through the worst period since the 1930s?

    Adding to the difficulty of embracing a market that recovers with such apparent ease is that many people simply can't reconcile their feelings about the state of the economy with the market. The market is not just acting like things are "less worse" but like we have a total and complete recovery with hardly a hiccup. That is at odds with the personal experience of many, especially since the unemployment rate is still climbing, the housing markets struggling and signs of recovery slow.

    So, we have the large supply of folks who are suspect of the market and are standing on the sidelines watching in disbelief as it run higher and higher, no matter what the news might be and their personal experience.

    What do these folks do? How do they tend to act when the market seems to recover from every pullback with such vigor? They start jumping in to make sure they aren't left behind yet again. When we begin to bounce, they see it developing, think to themselves "not again" and pay up because they are so sick and tired of not being in a market that apparently never goes down, even when the charts say it should.

    At some point, this pattern will change, but apparently it isn't going to be this morning. We are building on a low-volume bounce, and it is going to make the bears nervous about yet another squeeze and cause great frustration for the underinvested bulls once again.

    It is not the way low-volume bounces are supposed to act, but it is what the market is doing, and we always have to respect that above all else.

    We have a strong open on the way. The biggest driver appears to be a weaker dollar again, but Australia raised rates, which is an interesting development, and the market is once again focusing on a healthy economic recovery.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FONR +40.2% (thinly traded, light volume), CRUS +9.7%, PBG +1.8%, MOS +1.4%... M&A news: AVCT +20.9% (Emerson to acquire Avocent Corporation in all-cash tender offer of $25 per share)... Select financial related stocks showing strength: BX +3.8%, ING +3.6%, AIG +3.2% (Primus wins AIG Taiwan unit for $2.2 bln according to report- Reuters.com), STD +3.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), UBS +2.9% (UBS AG is doing the hiring, for a change - WSJ), MTU +2.5%, CS +1.9%, AXA +1.9%, BAC +1.5%, WFC +1.3%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: AUY +4.3% (Yamana Gold provides third quarter 2009 operational update), GSS +3.9%, HL +3.4%, GOLD +3.1%, GFI +3.1%, KGC +3.0%, AEM +2.9%, GG +2.6%, ABX +2.4%, NEM +2.3%, MT +1.9%, RTP +1.8%... Select oil/gas names trading higher: E +2.1%, COP +1.3%, RDS.A +1.3%... Select ag/chem names seeing modest premarket gains following MOS results: MON +1.5%, POT +1.4%... Select casino related names trading higher: MGM +3.8%, LVS +2.5%, WYNN +1.1%... Other news: NTRI +23.9% (announces distribution at Walmart), BEE +9.3% (announces that it has signed a purchase and sale agreement for the sale of the Four Seasons Mexico City to Meridia Capital for a gross price of $54.0 mln, or $225k/room), SMTL +8.2% (light volume; records $71.7 mln in Q4 bookings, up 120% from Q3; sees Q4 revs $46-47 mln vs $41.25 mln First Call consensus), SRDX +7.7% (enters ophthalmic license and development agreement with Roche and Genentech), DINE +2.5% (declares special cash dividend of $2.00 per share), AA +2.5% (still checking), HTWR +1.6% (U.S. FDA Authorizes Expansion to 40 Clinical Sites for HeartWare U.S. Bridge-to-Transplant Clinical Trial), BA +0.7% (reports 113 deliveries for Q3; YTD is now 359)... Analyst comments: TRID +9.0% (upgraded to Buy at Needham), CMZ +5.5% (upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold at Canaccord), AEG +4.1% (upgraded to Neutral at UBS), TJX +3.4% (raised to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman- DJ), GLW +3.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), HIG +2.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), AMX +2.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), FDO +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets), GIS +2.0% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), AFL +1.6% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: EXTR -13.2%, STJ -12.6%, MDCO -9.4%, TISI -8.7%, RBN -7.6% ... Select medical device related names showing weakness following STJ guidance: BSX -4.2% , MDT -4.1%... Other news: MNKD -10.0% (discloses it thinks it will not conclude a deal before the end of 2009 for AFRESA), ALTH -5.5% (filed for an 11 mln share common stock offering pursuant to an existing shelf), IRET -5.5% (announces it priced 8 mln share offering at $8.25), SQNM -4.0% (following the firing of its CEO last week, said it is now in contact with the Nasdaq Stock Exchange and a U.S. attorney in California - CNBC), PSEC -2.7% (trading ex dividend)... Analyst comments: ARRS -4.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies), ZMH -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), SHPGY -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS).
  • Ralli on olnud väga tugev nii Euroopas (DAX +2.3%) kui ka USAs (S&P500 +1.3%). Ootamatu spurt ülespoole, kuid tegelikult täpselt sama ootamatuks võib see kujuneda hiljem ka allapoole. Hetkel püsitakse veel neljapäevasest päeva tipust madalamal - seega hoolimata senisest rallist on vähemasti praegu veel tegu n-ö lower high'ga.
  • USA turg on päeva tippudest pärast Euroopa sulgumist päeva tippudel (DAX +2.7%) nüüd aga juba tugevasti alla tulnud. Mõned senised turuliidrid - näiteks GS - on kauplemas isegi miinuspoolel.
  • YUM! Brands prelim $0.70 vs $0.58 First Call consensus; revs $2.78 bln vs $2.79 bln First Call consensus
    YUM! Brands sees FY09 $2.14 vs $2.13 First Call consensus; up from previous guidance of $2.10

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