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Börsipäev 19. oktoober

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  • Täna pärast turu sulgemist on oodata Apple'i (AAPL) ja Texas Instrumentsi (TXN) tulemusi. Apple'ilt oodatakse aktsiapõhist kasumit $1.42 ning müügitulu $9.2 miljardit ning Texas Instrumentsilt oodatakse EPSi $0.39 ning tulusid $2.816 miljardit. Kuna Apple pole oma EPSi ootusi alates 2008. aasta 1. kvartalist löönud kordagi vähema kui 10 sendiga aktsia kohta, siis kindlasti oodatakse ka sedapuhku mitteametlikult vähemalt $1.55-$1.60st näitu.

    Täna olulisi makroraporteid USAst tulemas ei ole.
  • Euroopa turud on nädalat alustanud igaljuhul võimsalt. Saksamaa Dax indeks on esimese 40 minutiga tõusnud 1.3% ning viinud sellega suurde plussi ka USA futuurid, mis on hetkel omakorda reedesest sulgumisest 0.6% kõrgemal.
  • See nädal näeme tõelist tulemuste sadu. Tähtsamad ettevõtted on ära toodud meie tulemuste tabelis, millel saab silma peal hoida siin. 

  • JPMorgan bullish Venemaa & energia suhtes, mis mõlemad said täna "overweight" soovituse (seoses nafta hinna hüppega $75 dollarist kõrgemale). Venemaa kohta kirjutatakse: 

    "...investors believing in strong oil might do well to recognize the great value of Gazprom and supplement portfolios with domestic growth stories" 

    Deutsche Banki reedene kommentaar nafta hinnale:

    Crude oil prices appear to have lagged other parts of the commodities complex over the summer. With the USD potentially headed for the 1.55-1.60 range against the euro, the potential for further dollar related price gains between now and December seems like a reasonable expectation to us. Traditional oil supply and demand fundamentals remain weak in our view, however, and this should provide an offset to the USD-driven strength.

  • Kui aktsiad, nafta, eur/usd on viimase aasta tippude juures, siis VIX on reedese seisuga samuti selle aasta madalaimal tasemel (riskitaluvus suur & pullid jätkuvalt mängus):

  • Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +1.32%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.22%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.30%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.52%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +1.04%
    Venemaa MICEX +2.23%
    Poola WIG +1.06%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.21%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.23%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.07%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.67%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.14%
    Tai Set 50 +2.02%
    India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud)

  • Dip-Buyers Are a Tell
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/19/2009 9:09 AM EDT

    "It's easier to resist at the beginning than at the end."

    -- Leonardo da Vinci
    We have a very busy week of earnings reports, with Apple (AAPL) and Texas Instruments (TXN) starting the parade tonight. So far, the market has had a very mixed reaction to the reports we have seen. With the exception of Google (GOOG) , most of the major reports have been greeted by selling; International Business Machines (IBM) , Intel (INTC) , Goldman Sachs (GS) , JPMorgan Chase (JPM) , Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) , Alcoa (AA) and General Electric (GE) have all sold off following their reports, which were pretty solid overall.

    What is interesting is that, even though the reaction to many individual reports has been negative, the response of the major indices has been quite good. We had a little selling party on Friday but bounced back and closed fairly well. The poor reaction to major earnings reports is not spilling over and having any real impact on the rest of the market.

    It is unusual action so far and can be viewed in a number of ways. The bullish interpretation is that there is just so much underlying desire to be in this market that market players are ignoring reports and seeking exposure in other things out of fear of being left out. This underlying buying support has been so amazingly strong for so long that it just doesn't dry up and go away even when there are some obvious sell-the-news catalysts.

    The bearish argument is much the same that it has been for a while, which is that the market is simply ignoring a slew of negatives and that we are going to pay a price for it eventually. The fact that leading stocks are not advancing on good news is certainly a sign that they have already discounted the positives out there and are ready to pull back.

    Indeed, the tepid response by some key stocks to their earnings reports is a negative, but as I've been saying for quite some time now, we can't be overly anticipatory in this market. Nothing has been more dangerous than trying to predict when this market is going to top out. We have had many compelling and insightful bearish arguments for months, and they just have not mattered. The market has had exceptionally strong momentum and some of the most tenacious dip-buying we have ever seen for a while now. While the reaction to some key earnings reports is worrisome, we need to see some more negative technical action before we can really have much of a change in posture.

    Of course, that doesn't mean that we shouldn't tighten up stops and be a bit more cautious with positions, especially with those that are reporting earnings, but this market still has not done very much that is wrong, and that means the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt.

    A lot of folks would love to see this market correct or just consolidate a bit but too many are tired of waiting for it to occur, and that is why they are so fast to buy the pullbacks. With a slew of earnings reports this week and a tendency for a sell-the-news reaction, the dip-buyers will have a chance yet again, and they will be our best measure of market health.

    We have a slightly positive start with agriculture stocks attracting plenty of attention on talk of continued demand in China, which saw its economy growing at 7% so far this year. Some banks and oils are perking up, and the overall mood continues to be positive.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GCI +2.2%... M&A news: IPCS +32.8% and S +2.3% (IPCS Inc to be acquired by Spring Nextel for $24/share), ALLI +20.4% (agrees to be acquired by H.I.G. Capital for $6.60/share in cash)... Select financial names showing strength: CIT +8.0% (amends restructuring plan), DB +2.9% (Deutsche Bank, Dutch govt making progress on deal, according to source - DJ), STD +2.5%, ING +2.3%, CS +2.2%, BCS +1.9%, C +1.5% (Citigroup might lose Mexican subsidiary - Financial Times), AIG +1.4% (American Intl, Greenberg in talks to settle legal disputes, sources says - WSJ), HBC +1.3%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: MT +2.6%, RTP +1.4%, ... Select oil/gas related names showing strength: CEO +3.1%, PTR +2.7%, BP +2.0%, STO +1.5%, E +1.3%, RDS.A +1.1%, TOT +1.0%... Select European drug names seeing early strength: SNY +1.8%, AZN +1.4%... Select casino names ticking higher: MGM +1.9%, LVS +1.7%... Other news: RNN +35.1% (reports positive top-line Phase IIa data for Serdaxin in patients with Major Depressive Disorder), ELRN +7.2% (still checking), BX +4.7% (Blackstone's new fund falling short - NY Post), AVII +3.9% (announced the publication of research demonstrating the ability of a PPMO therapy to prevent the onset of cardiomyopathy in a mouse), HGSI +3.5% (announces $75 mln milestone payment for ZALBIN progress), GEO +1.7% and CXW +1.3% (Prison operators mentioned positively in Barron's), ARMH +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TGT +1.1% (Target to give discount for reusable bags - USA Today)... Analyst comments: AAI +4.1% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), POT +2.7% (BHP can offer 30% premium for Potash Corp., BofA says - Bloomberg.com), JOYG +1.3% (initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital), HAL +1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Natixis).
  • S&P500 indeks on 7 kuuga tõusnud 666 punkti pealt 1100 punkti peale. Muljetavaldavad 65%. Nasdaq100 on samal ajal saanud hakkama ca 70%lise tõusuga.
  • October NAHB Housing Market Index 18 vs 20 consensus; September 19

    Hetkeks tekkis väike müügispike, mis koheselt tagasi osteti.
  • S&P 500 täna juba test korda üle 1100 punkti ja uueks tippuks vormistati 1100.14 punkti.
  • AAPL-i puhul ootab konsensus järgmisi tootenumbreid:
    From a product basis, the Street is currently estimating ~2.8 mln Mac shipments in Q4, ~7 mln iPhones, and 10.5 mln iPods.
    Eps-i oodatakse $1.42 ja käibeks $9.209 miljardit.
    Apple enda prognoosid tavapäraselt tagasihoidlikud: Eps $1.18-1.23 ja käibeks $8.7-8.9 miljardit.

    Reaktsioon tulemustele saab olema väga huvitav.


  • Sept. quarter revenue: $9.2 billion consensus, $9.4 billion "real" expectations
    Sept. quarter EPS: $1.42 consensus, $1.65 "real" expectations
  • Apple prelim $1.82 vs $1.42 First Call consensus; revs $9.87 bln vs $9.20 bln First Call consensus
  • Ikka väga korralik tulemus ja RIMM liigub sümpaatiast kenasti kaasa.
  • Texas Instrument prelim $0.42 vs 0.39 consensus; revs $2.88 billion vs $2.82 billion consensus
    Steel Dynamics prelim $0.30 vs 0.23 consensus; revs $1.2 billion vs $1.06 billion consensus
  • Texas Instrument prelim $0.42 vs 0.39 consensus; revs $2.88 billion vs $2.82 billion consensus
    Steel Dynamics prelim $0.30 vs 0.23 consensus; revs $1.2 billion vs $1.06 billion consensus

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