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Börsipäev 23. detsember

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  • Jõuluralli on aktsiaturgudel täies hoos ning iga päevaga nihkuvad turud üha kõrgemale uutele aasta tippudele. Üldiselt enne uut aastat sellises olukorras keegi ülessepoole liikuvale buldooserile vastu seista ei taha ning seetõttu võibki positiivsus kesta vähemasti kuni aasta lõpuni. Eelturul on S&P500 indeksi futuurid tõusnud +0.4% ning Nasdaq100 futuurid +0.3%. Mõlemad tähistavad nende indeksite uusi 15-16 kuu tippe. 

    S&P500 indeksi viimase kahe aasta graafik:

  • Täna on USAst tulemas ka pisut makroandmeid. Kell 15.30 teatatakse novembrikuu muutus eraisikute sissetulekutes (ootus +0.5%), eraisikute kulutustes (ootus +0.7%). Mida suurem on just kulutuste number, seda kasulikum aktsiatele ning väiksema näidu korral jälle vastupidi (ehk kui inimesed kulutavad raha rohkem, siis on ka ettevõtete kasumid suuremad).

    Kell 16.55 avaldatakse detsembrikuu Michigani sentimendi indeksi väärtus (ootus 73.8 punkti, detsembri algusest teatatud esialgne näit oli 73.4 punkti). Kuna tegu on jõulu-eelse näiduga, siis sellel tasub kindlasti silma peal hoida ja vaadata, kas tarbijate sentiment on jõulude lähenedes püsinud või mitte. Kell 17.00 teatakse uute eluasemete müüginumbrid (ootus 438 000), kus suurem number näitas oodatust paremat kinnisvaraturu seisu ning väikem jälle nõrgemat.
  • Kolmeosalises videointervjuus (osa1osa2osa3) toob Marc Faber välja oma nägemuse 2010. aastaks. Lühidalt kokkuvõttes on ta positiivselt meelestatud toorainete suhtes, seda suhkru ja eriti nisu ning maagaasi osas. Eemale soovitab ta hoida USA võlakirjadest ning samal ajal hindab potentsiaalseks üllatajaks Jaapani aktsiaturgu, eriti pangandussektorit. Intervjuus peatub ta pikemalt veel USA tarbimisel, India majandusel ning mitmel muul teemal.

  • Kui kaua täna Tallinna börsil kauplemine käib?
  • Ja kuidas on homme USA börsiga lood?
  • 24. detsembril on USA turud avatud 20.00-ni
  • California Gov to seek $8 bln in US help, propose cutbacks according to report - DJ
  • November Personal Income +0.4% vs +0.5% consensus, prior revised to +0.3% from +0.2%
    November Personal Spending +0.5% vs +0.7% consensus, prior revised to +0.6% from +0.7%
  • Geithner sees U.S. job growth by spring - Reuters
  • Jõuluvana-ralli on Aasias ja Euroopas täie hooga edasi läinud.

    Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +0,31%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,48%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0,82%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,55% 
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0,20%
    Venemaa MICEX -0,13%
    Poola WIG -0,31%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
    Hongkongi Hang Seng +1,12%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,76%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,97%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,85%
    Tai Set 50 +0,92%
    India Sensex 30 +3,23%

  • Expect the Unexpected
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    12/23/2009 8:13 AM EST

    I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer.
    -- Kehlog Albran, The Profit

    We are on track for a positive gap up open for the third day in a row, but volume will be light and the news flow is slowing. It is a typical holiday environment, and the action can become quite choppy as market players start to close the books for the year.

    And what a year it has been! A year ago, who would have thought that we would dip to the depths we did in March and then go straight up for one of the biggest rallies ever into the rest of the year. We didn't have a classic bear-market bounce or any sort of retest of the lows. Once we started bouncing, we never looked back.

    It was a particularly good example of how the market tends to behave in a manner that frustrates the majority of people. After the very ugly market behavior from September 2008 to March 2009, investors had to be feeling nervous and uncertain. That was the worst action we had seen in a generation, but the market punished anyone who didn't shed their bear skins and fully embrace the market once we started to bounce in March.

    What made it even harder was that the economic conditions on Main Street, especially unemployment, where so downbeat compared to the euphoric action on Wall Street. The buoyant action on Wall Street was largely a function of liquidity created by massive government stimulation and bailout programs, but it always had the feel that Wall Street was in a completely different world than Mail Street.

    It has been an unusual year indeed, and 2010 is likely to be equally surprising. This is the time of the year when many folks like to make predictions about what is going to happen over the next 12 months. It can make for entertaining reading and cause us to contemplate the big picture, but virtually no one ever has it right, and those who do are generally just lucky rather than prescient.

    I shy away from making long-term market predictions because I believe it is very important to always be open-minded about the market. Once you start making predictions, you create a bias that may interfere with your ability to trade. If you predict the market is going to move strongly in one direction and it goes the other way, you will have a predisposition to fight it rather than embrace it.

    I'll be writing some more about how we should prepare for the year ahead, but the most important thing is to be ready for the unexpected. That was the story of 2009, and it is going to be the story again in 2010.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FSII +11.3%, FINL +9.9%, TIBX +7.1%, RHT +6%, AM +5.0%, MU +4.0%... Other news: PSDV +66% (announces positive results from the two Phase 3 FAME trials of Iluvien in patients with diabetic macular edema), CGEN +28.2% (announces "discovery on demand" therapeutic peptide collaboration with Pfizer), BLDP +22.1% (announces supply agreement with Daimler AG), CAST +6.7% (announces executive mgmt team to purchase 692,520 shares of stock at $7.22/share, worth ~$5 mln), PMI +5.7% (announces restructuring of certain modified pool policies), IOC +3.9% (Papua New Guinea Signs InterOil's LNG Project Agreement), MO +0.8% (Positive Cramer comments)... Analyst comments: ACHN +22.6% (initiated with a Buy and $12 tgt at Roth, as initial Phase Ib proof-of-concept data demonstrates the dramatic potency of Achillion's lead HCV protease inhibitor ACH-1625), XIN +5.8% (assumed with a Buy and $10 tgt at Brean Murray), THC +4.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Leerink Swann), SNDK +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at ThinkEquity with a $35 tgt).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CTAS -9.0% (also downgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan)... Other news: ATHX -6.3% (seeing some profit taking following the +455% spike over the past two days), THQI -3.3% (THQI, WWE and JAKK announced that they have reached settlement agreements with respect to the WWE video game and toy licenses; THQI will pay WWE $13.2 mln), MTG -2.8% (co disclosed that on Dec 17, Countrywide Home Loans and BAC Home Loans Servicing filed a complaint for declaratory relief in the Superior Court of the State of California in San Francisco against co).
  • November New Home Sales 355K vs 438K consensus; M/M change -11.3%
    Väga kole number
  • SP peaks ikka 1111 kanti ära kukkuma küll selle makro peale, rohkem ei usu, Jõuluvana käsi tuleb ette
  • DoE Inventory Data:
    Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a draw of 4841K (consensus is a draw of 1600K); gasoline inventories had a draw of 883K (consensus is a build of 1000K); distillate inventories had a draw of 3027K (consensus is a draw of 2000K).
    Nafta hind korralikult kosumas
  • St. Louis Fed's Bullard sees "good momentum" for economy in 2010; sees rates on hold near zero in 2010, but asset sales possible - WSJ
    Bullard says it's "too early" to change extended period language
  • Nõrk eluasemete müük detsembris võib tähendada seda, et Föderaalreserv peab intresse jätkuvalt kaua-kaua madalal hoidma. Seetõttu on ka täna euro dollari vastu 0.6% rallinud ning kõige selle taustal on nafta juba 2.7% plussis ja barreli hind jõudnud juba $76.5ni barrelist.
  • Joel,
    Mõtlesid novembi müüki ikka?
  • Jah, aitäh medal. Novembri müük ikka muidugi. Päris huvitav, kuidas niivõrd nõrka numbrit täielikult ignoreeritakse. Oma töö on siin muidugi tegemas kingikoti ja habemega jõulumees, kes kõik karud pühade eel on kokku korjanud, et neid siis lastele laiali saaks jagada. Ja nii ongi turul aastalõpus järel ainult pullid/põdrad, kes jõuluvana saani üha uutesse kõrgustesse veavad.

    : )
  • Last summer, while most people were still talking about the popular "Cash for Clunkers" auto program, the Department of Energy announced a $300 million appliance rebate program aimed at encouraging consumers to junk their energy-guzzling appliances for more efficient ones.
    Kes sellest Cash for Appliance programmist mis kohe käivituma hakkab kasu võiks lõigata, white goods'ide tootjad ja/või kaubandus?
  • Barnes & Noble says Nooks coming by Christmas - WSJ
  • GS teeb päeva põhju, toetustase $163.25.
  • Sen Dodd and Shelby say they have made meaningful progress on financial reform- CNBC

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