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Börsipäev 4. jaanuar

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  • Täna on 2010. aasta esimene kauplemispäev. Kuigi Hiina aktsiaturud on olnud täna miinuses, siis enamus Aasia turge on plusspoolel - Vietnam kogunisti +4.5%. USA futuurid on eelturul +0.6% kuni +0.8%.

    Tänased olulisemad majandusuudised USAst tulevad Eesti aja järgi kell 17, mil teatatakse novembrikuu ehituskulutuste muutus (ootus -0.5%) ning detsembrikuu ISM indeks (ootus 54.0 punkti).
  • Novartis (NVS) on viimas lõpule oma plaani omandada enamusosalus silma-hoolduse ettevõttes Alcon (ACL), ostes ära Nestle'ilt 52%lise osaluse hinnaga $28 miljardit ehk $180 ACLi aktsia eest. Kui Nestle'ile makstakse aktsiate eest rahas ja enamusosaluse müügi eest ka preemiat, siis ülejäänud 23% protsenti hoidvatele investoritele pakutakse 2.8 NVSi enda aktsiat, mis tähendab ACLi hoidnud investorite jaoks sõltuvalt NVSi aktsia liikumisest tegelikult neljapäevasest sulgumishinnast pisut madalamat hinda (ca $150).

  • Dubai avab täna maailma kõrgeima ehitise Burj Dubai. Tegu on 818 meetrit kõrge 160-elamiskõlbliku korrusega hoonega, mille ehitusmaksumuseks oli $1.5 miljardit. Vaateplatvorm 124. korrusel avab uksed juba homme, seega kui kellelgi Dubaisse minek, võib seda maailma kõrgeimat hoonet juba ülevalt uudistamas käia. Burj Dubais asub maailma kõrgeim mošee 158. korrusel ning maailma kõrgeim bassein 76. korrusel.

  • Pinged Jeemenis (erinevad Al-Qaeda ähvardused) ning Venemaa naftatarnete peatamine Valgevenele on energiahindade ralli taas sütitanud. Nafta on kauplemas $81 peal barrelist ning täna tõusnud 2%. Eelturu hinnad näitavad ka maagaasi korralikku hinnatõusu.
  • Aasta on alanud ilusate detsembrikuu PMI näitajatega - HSBC/Markiti poolt mõõdetav Hiina PMI kerkis 56.1 punkti peale (kõrgeim tase alates 2004. aasta aprillist!). Euroopas saavutas Suurbritannia CIPS/Markiti poolt koostatav PMI detsembris 54.1 punkti peale (viimase 25. kuu kõrgeim tase). 50 punktist kõrgem PMI näitab, et tööstustoodang kasvab & viimaste aastate kõrgeim tase detsembris annab märku, et tööstustoodang on tegemas V-kujulist taastumist.

  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK), mida oleme LHV Maailma Pro all soovitanud osta, on aasta esimesel kauplemispäeval väljas teatega, et on lõpule jõudnud 7 kuud kestnud partnerlusläbirääkimistes Totaliga (TOT). Kahe ettevõtte vahel sõlmitakse partnerlusleping, millega Chesapeake (CHK) müüb 25% oma Barnett Shale upstream varadest Totalile, saades selle eest vastu $0.8 miljardit ning tingimuse, et Total rahastab ajutiselt kuni $1.45 miljardi ulatuses CHK poolt tehtavaid kulutusi Barnettis.

    Seega Chesapeake taaskord ühe strateegilise partneri võrra rikkam, bilansis olev võlg väiksem ning pikaajalist jätkusuutlikkust tugevalt kindlustatud. Strateegilise partnerluslepingu kohta on ettevõte pidamas Eesti aja järgi täna kell 17.00 konverenstikõne. Eelturul on aktsia paari protsendi jagu plussis kauplemas.

  • Credit Suisse & UBS kommenteerivad positiivselt Morgan Stanley (MS) aktsiat, mis on eelturul +3.5% plusspoolel:

    Credit Suisse upgrades MS to Outperform from Neutral and raises their tgt to $38 from $32 saying while they expect fourth quarter results will be lackluster they believe 2010 will represent an inflection point for franchise profitability, operating margins and book value growth which they believe should drive valuation restoration and share price outperformance. They see stabilization and payoff from investment spending initiatives within the Institutional Securities franchise and the realization of Global Wealth Management integration helping to drive realization of $3.50+ earnings power.

    UBS said that while Morgan Stanley is a "work in progress," it can show attractive year-on-year improvement in 2010 if management can generate some improvements in trading or asset management (UBS andis MSile ostusoovituse).  

  • Samas langetasid Credit Suisse'i analüütikud Goldman Sachsi (GS) 4Q prognoose, kuna turud ei teinud eelmise aasta lõpus suuri liikumisi & kauplemisest saadavad tulud ei pruugi enam nii roosilised olla (GS eelturul +0.7%):

    Goldman Sachs ests lowered below consensus at Credit Suisse on sluggish operating environment and asset price levels (168.84)Credit Suisse believes activity levels decelerated through the fourth qtr and were particularly weak in Dec., most notably impacting trading businesses which had been fairly active throughout 2009. As such, firm is adjusting its 4Q and FY2009 est to reflect the sluggish year-end operating environment and quarter-end asset price levels. From a top-line perspective, firm expects 4Q to be marked by weaker core client activity levels and trading results across both fixed income and equities businesses, somewhat offset by a pickup in M&A and equity underwriting fees as more deals closed than it anticipated. CS is lowering its 4Q EPS est to $4.50 from $5.73. As such, its 2009 est is now $18.08 from $19.30 ($5.47/$19.18 consensus).

     

  • Singapur avaldas esmaspäeval esimese riigina 4Q SKP numbri:

    After an annualised quarter-on-quarter contraction of 13 per cent in the first three months last year, GDP shot up by 22 per cent in the second quarter and 15 per cent in the third. In that context, a smooth extension of that trajectory out of the longest recession since independence in 1965 was always unlikely. Even so, Singapore’s lurch to a 7 per cent contraction in the final three months is worrying.

    Kuigi Singapuri majandus on väga volatiiline (sõltub suuresti ekspordist), siis on selline kukkumine neljandas kvartalis üsna suur ohumärk teistele riikidele (eriti Aasia riikidele, kes loodavad ekpordi taastumist selle aasta alguses). Singapuri aktsiate käekäiku USA börsil kajastab börsil kaubeldava fondi EWS.

  • Goldman on Chesapeake Energy soovituse langetamas 'osta' pealt 'hoia' peale.

    Chesapeake Energy cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
  • USA tähtsamate indeksite futuurid eelturul 0.8% kuni 1.3% plussis. Seega korralik avapauk aastale 2010.

    Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +0,80%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1,19%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0,78%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,79% 
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0,76%
    Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
    Poola WIG +1,42%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1,03%
    Hongkongi Hang Seng -0,23%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1,02%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0,15%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2,83%
    Tai Set 50 -0,46%
    India Sensex 30 +0,54%

  • Let the Price Action Lead the Way
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/4/2010 8:29 AM EST

    A preoccupation with the future not only prevents us from seeing the present as it is but often prompts us to rearrange the past.
    -- Eric Hoffer

    Early indications are that 2010 is on track for a strong open. The beginning of a new year is often positive as we see inflows into mutual funds and retirement accounts and efforts by investors to start the year off with some quick gains. Everyone is starting with a blank slate and optimism is high, which helps to keep the mood positive.

    As usual, there are plenty of predictions about how the year is going to play out. I don't think anyone predicted we would fall as much as we did last March and then recover as aggressively as we did the remainder of the year, so I'm not inclined to think anyone is going to predict what is going to happen in 2010 either.

    One thing we can be certain of is that there are going to be very logical and compelling arguments from both bulls and bears. If you have a market bias in either direction you can always find some very smart people to provide you with some very good reasons for your position. That is the nature of the stock market.

    By far the biggest mistake people made in the market in 2009 was looking for the rally off the March low to come to an end. It wasn't only market pundits that keep looking for a top -- mutual fund investors withdrew more than $53 billion, according to Strategas Research Partners.

    The rally in 2009 was one of the most hated I've ever seen, primarily because people just didn't believe that we could recover as quickly and as easily as we did. We still have plenty of doubters, but if there is one lesson we should have learned last year it is that we should not try to overanticipate when the market might turn down.

    It isn't always very easy to do, but we should always respect the price action above anything else. There will always be fundamental arguments that are contrary to the way the market is acting, but the market just doesn't care about what someone might think is reasonable or logical. All of 2009 was marked by rallies that went further and higher than just about anyone though they would. If you argued with the price action, you lost.

    I have no idea where the market will be a year from now, but I do know that during 2010 there will be trends, in both directions, that last longer and go further than we think they should. If we navigate those moves successfully, then we will rack up some gains and have a very good year.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DGLY +9.8% (light volume)... M&A news: BFRM +58.8% (Merz to acquire BioForm Medical for $5.45/share in cash), CBY +1.3% (Kraft to raise Cadbury bid in next 2 weeks: Report - Reuters)... Select financial names showing strength: IRE +12.8%, AIB +8.3%, RBS +7.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas), ING +4.5%, MS +3.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), BCS +3.1%, ABX +2.8%, CS +1.9%, HBC +1.6%, DB +1.4%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: AU +5.0%, KGC +4.3%, PAL +4.3%, AU +3.8%, GOLD +3.6%, EGO +3.5%, IAG +3.5%, HL +3.3%, CDE +3.3%, MT +3.2%, BBL +3.1%, BHP +2.8%, GG +2.6%, AUY +2.3%, RTP +2.1%, GLD +1.6%... Select energy related names showing strength: TSO +4.8% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), FTO +4.2% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), CHK +3.9% (announces $2.25 bln Barnett Shale joint venture with Total E&P USA), SUN +3.4% (upgraded to Hold at Deutsche), TOT +2.9%, VLO +2.7% (upgraded to Hold at Deutsche), RDS.A +2.6%, DVN +2.5%, HAL +2.2%, CVX +1.3% (mentioned positively in Barron's), COP +1.3%... Other news: NIV +12.4% (NIV IntelliMedia Tech Grp and China Potevio Enter into Strategic Partnership for the Development of a 3G Mobile Phone), KNDI +11.4% (forges strategic alliance with energy, IT and battery companies to help launch new Electronic Vehicle (EV) Era in China), CGEN +8.2% (still checking), LPS +3.3% (mentioned positively in Barron's)... Analyst comments: STEC +4.9% (well positioned for growth in 2010- Deutsche Bank), LVS +4.4% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), WYNN +4.1% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), THOR +3.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), UNH +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), BA +2.7% (upgraded to Buy at Jesup & Lamont, upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), NOK +2.6% (Oppenheimer sees room for Q4 volume and EPS upside), INTC +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), UPS +1.4% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), GOOG +1.0% (target raised to $810 at FBR Capital; remaining their top pick in the sector).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    M&A news: ACL -4.0% and NVS -1.8% (Novartis announces option exercise and merger proposal with Alcon)... Other news: FIZZ -8.3% (trading ex dividend)... Analyst comments: HNSN -3.3% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), MELI -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), SYT -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse).
  • ISM väga korralik (ISM >50 näitab tööstustegevuse suurenemist & selle kukkumine alla 50 punkti on reeglina üks esimesi indikaatoreid majandustegevuse kokkutõmbumisest):

    December ISM Manufacturing 55.9 vs 54.3 consensus, November 53.6

    November Construction Spending MoM -0.6% vs. -0.5% consensus; prior revised to -0.5% from 0.0%

  • IMAXilt (IMAX) tänu Avatarile väga ilusad numbrid:

    Co announced that Q4, IMAX DMR gross box office worldwide reached the $100 million milestone, a first for the Company and an ~225% increase over last year's fourth quarter box office of ~$31 million. The Q4 DMR gross box office results include the ~$54 million generated from Avatar. DMR gross box office of Hollywood DMR titles shown in the worldwide IMAX network increased 108% to a record $270 million compared to $130 million in fiscal 2008. 

     

  • Deutsche Bank lisas Cisco Systemsi (CSCO) 'ostu' soovituste alla.
  • Panen Dick Bove'i kommentaari ka siia Bank of America (BAC) kohta. Bove usub, et aktsia võib aastaga kahekordistuda:

    Bove says there were significant problems in the areas of the bank that Moynihan previously managed, but they still have a Buy on BAC stock and still think it will double this year. Says co needs to give serious thought to spinning off credit card division.
  • Õiglus võidutseb, keegi vajutas suure koguse ja tulemuseks see:
    Rambus Inc Nasdaq to cancel certain trades of RMBS below $20.73
    - determined to cancel all trades in security Rambus Inc. (RMBS) at or below $20.73 that were executed in NASDAQ between 13:28:00 and 13:32:00 ET. This decision cannot be appealed.
  • Paistab, et ka täna jääb turul käive üsna nutuseks.
  • SunTrust Banks trying to sell asset management unit Ridgeworth Investments, according to sources - Reuters

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