LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 29. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Täna kell 15.30 avaldatakse USA 4. kvartali SKP muutus - ootuseks on +4.7%line kasvunäit. Tegu olulise makronäitajaga ja sel tuleb silm peal hoida. Kell 16.55 teatatakse Michigani Ülikooli poolt koostatav jaanuarikuu sentimendi indeks, millelt oodatake sarnaselt detsembris nähtuga 73.0 punktilist näitu. Mida suurem näitaja, seda parem.

    Tulemustetabel on taaskord uuendatud - link siin. Ootusi küll ületatakse, kuid närvilisus turgudel on pannud investorid mõtlema rohkem kasumivõtmise peale.

  • Aasia turud lõpetavad tänase miinusega nädalat, mille jooksul MSCI Asia Pacific indeks on loovutamas -4.5% oma väärtusest – enim alates läinud aasta märtsist. Leebem oli hommikune langus Hiinas, kus turgudel hingatakse veidi kergemalt pärast valitsuse ametnike kinnitust, et mõõdukalt lõdvakäelise rahapoliitikaga kavatsetakse jätkata. CSI 300 loovutas -0.08%, samal ajal kolistas Nikkei -2.1% ja S&P/ASX 200 -2.2%. USA futuurid kauplevad eilsest sulgumistasemest hetkel -0.2% madalamal.
  • Kreeka olukorra ümber valitsev spekulatiivne surve on pressinud riigi 10a võlakirja intressi nüüd juba 7.15%-le (vahe Saksa Bundiga 394 baaspunkti ) ning survestab eur/usd kurssi edasi. Kui Kreeka ametnikud on jätkuvalt veendunud, et nad suudavad väljakäidud plaani ellu viia ja aastaks 2012 eelarve defitsiidi praeguselt 12.7%-lt 3%-ni ilma EU abita vähendada, siis turud kipuvad olema erimeelt. Varasemad seisukohad, et Kreekat ei kavatseta välisabiga toetada, näivad päev-päevalt järjest vähem paika pidavat. Muuhulgas kinnitas üks IMFi ametnik  eile valmisolekut aidata Kreekat  "in any way necessary."

  • Lisan siia juurde ka illustratiivse graafiku Kreeka 10 võlakirja yieldi hüppest. Viimati liiguti sellistel tasemel aastal 1999.

  • JPMorgan rahustab oma kliente mõttega, et viimase kahe nädala korrektsioon ei ole midagi ebaharilikku. Laenukraanide kinnikeeramine Hiinas, Kreeka rahastamise probleemid ja USA valtsuse plaan finantssektori tegevust karmima seadlusandlusega piirata võivad järgnevatel nädalatel turgudel täiendavat ebakindlust lisada, et nende pikaajalist makroväljavaadet see ei kahjusta. Pigem vaadatakse korrektsiooni hea ostuvõimalusena:

    “These three threats are unlikely to fade in coming weeks. Given the large number of investors who entered the year long equities, credit, and EM, one has to accept that the next few weeks will likely see further position squaring and continued weakness in risky markets. Further out, we retain a positive view and strategy on risky markets, as we do not consider the sum total of recent events significant enough to depress global growth. Our economic views are unchanged this week.”

  • Eurotsoonist välja töötusmäär ja CPI, mis tulid vastavalt 10% vs oodatud 10.01% ja CPI 1% vs oodatud 1.2%.
  • Hennes&Mauritz, kes valmistas läinud majandusaastal oma investoritele kuiste müüginumbritega peamiselt ainult pettumust, suutis eile üllatada väga tugeva neljanda kvartaliga. EPS oli SEK7.44 versus konsensuse 6.11 tänu 66.3-protsendilisele brutokasumimarginaalile (oodati 62.8%). Heas valguses näitas ettevõtet veel detsembris 15% kasvanud jaemüük (konsensus 10.5%) – kas tegu oli tingitud ajutisest pühade mõjust, heast rõivavalikust või hoopis pikemajalise trendi algusega, näitavad järgnevad kuud. Igatahes Deutsche Bank kiidab sooritust ning tõstab soovituse hoia pealt osta peale hinnasihiga 470 SEK. H&M aktsia on pärast tulemusi kerkinud üle 8% ning kaupleb 437 sek juures ning toonud Inditexi sümpaatiast tagasi 8 kuu tippude juurde. 

  • http://www.imdb.com/video/imdb/vi875627545/

    Wall Street 2 tulemas
  • Q4 GDP Q/Q- advance +5.7% vs +4.7% consensus, Q3 +2.2%
    Q4 Personal Consumption- advance +2.0% vs +1.8% consensus, Q3 +2.8%
  • The change in inventories added 3.4 percentage points to growth, the biggest contribution from inventories in 22 years
  • Tööhõive vahendamisega USAs tegelev Robert Half (RHI) näitas väga korralikke tulemusi ning tulemustejärgselt on ettevõte saanud ka upgrade'i:

    Robt Half upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital Markets
  • WSJs tabav kommentaar varude rolli kohta SKPs:
    "The question you need to ask yourself is 'did it feel like 5.7% growth as the year came to a close?'
  • Tundub päris roheline päev tulevat. Oodatust oluliselt parema SKP kasvunumbri peale on futuurid kerkinud juba ca 0.8% kuni 1.0% eilse sulgumistasemega võrreldes kõrgemale.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +1.47%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.69%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.28%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.44% 
    Rootsi OMX 30 +1.49%
    Venemaa MICEX +0.24%
    Poola WIG -0.15%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.08%
    Hongkongi Hang Seng -1.15%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.15%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.43%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -4.03%
    Tai Set 50 +1.08%
    India Sensex 30 +0.31%

  • Looking for a Failed Bounce
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/29/2010 8:26 AM EST

    The winds and waves are always on the side of the ablest navigators.
    -- Edward Gibbon

    Solid earnings reports from Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are setting a positive tone this morning. European stocks managed to bounce but Asian markets were down again as the yen strengthened against the dollar.

    The stronger dollar has been weighing on gold, commodity, steel, coal and a variety of other natural resource plays lately. The weak dollar provide a strong tailwind for much of the rally off the March low, but the strength now is helping to push the major indices into a downtrend.

    We have some economic news coming up this morning, most notably the GDP report, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. All three reports have the capacity to jiggle the market but after that the news flow will slow substantially. Most of the big earnings reports are now out, and all the political drama with Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke and the president's speech will cool off as well.

    So that leaves us with a market that has been struggling for four days now to bounce after two big days of selling last week. Unlike last year, this market has not been able to put together a very good bounce. In almost every month since July, we reversed back up very sharply after a brief bout of weakness. The bears were destroyed and it seemed like underinvested bulls were always chasing the market up, trying to add long exposure.

    So far this time it looks different. The dip-buyers are not showing up, the bears are growing more aggressive and good news is failing to generate any upside momentum. Earnings season has produced many strong reports but the reaction has been consistently weak.

    Last year if you did the right thing and became more cautious as the market pulled back and looked to be running into technical problems, you ended up feeling a bit foolish. Caution in the face of deteriorating charts was punished. That doesn't mean that it wasn't the right thing to do, but the market simply confounded anyone who stayed disciplined.

    The technical condition of the market is signaling that we should be more cautious this time. We may end up bouncing like we did so often last year, but our primary goal should always be to protect our capital, and with the charts looking the way they do that means cutting our long exposure, using tight stops and being more selective with our buying.

    The market is oversold enough that we have a good chance of a bounce within the next few days, but I suspect that this bounce won't be like the ones we saw last year that took us straight back up. This time I'm looking for the bounce to fail as it hits overhead resistance and for another downleg to develop.

    Right now we have some positive action and we are in good position to bounce. I thought the same thing yesterday and was surprised at how weak the action was, but with the good earnings and quieter news flow I think the bulls may make a better try today.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ISSI +12.1%, SNV +8.4%, CADE +8.2% (light volume), PMCS +6.7%, INFA +5.6%, EPAY +4.5% (light volume), RHI +4.3% (upgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), JNPR +4.1%, COHR +4.1% (also upgraded to Buy at B.Riley), VSEA +3.0%, AMZN +2.7%, EMN +2.4%, CHU +2.2%, MSFT +2.2%, CHRD +2.2%, IMGN +1.4% (light volume)... Select metals/mining related names showing modest strength: RTP +2.1%, MT +1.3%, VALE +1.2%, BBL +0.8%... Select oil/gas names showing strength: TOT +1.7%, PBR +1.1%, CVX +1.0%... Select India related names ticking higher following Reserve Bank of India announcements: IBN +5.2% (India shares higher following India Central bank announcement), INFY +1.5%... Other news: ATV +11.2% (Hearing early strength attributed to positive newsletter mention), USU +11.1% (rebounding following uranium stock's' weakness yesterday), ROSG +10.5% (fortifies patent position with U.S. allowance of claims covering human microRNAs miR-21 and hcmv-miR-UL112), TI +3.6% (Italy Govt can only use moral suasion at Telecom Italia - WSJ.com), NBG +3.5% (EU signals last-resort backing for Greece - Financial Times), SYT +2.2% (traded higher overseas), AVT +1.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ALOG +1.0% (Analogic and L-3 Communications to upgrade complete L-3 examiner line of explosives detection systems)... Analyst comments: MXIM +4.9% (upgraded to Overweight at GC Research), WMT +2.6% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman), DAI +2.0%(upgraded to neutral at HSBC), TTWO +2.0% (upgraded to Buy at Morgan Joseph).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: YTEC -43.0%, QTM -13.1%, SNDK -12.5%, ACI -8.9%, GIGA -6.7% (light volume), ASIA -5.2%, TSRA -4.2%, PAR -3.2% (also downgraded to Hold at ThinkEquity), PFS -2.6% (light volume), HON -2.4%, WAB -2.1%, FLS -1.5%, COLM -1.2%... Select coal related names ticking lower following ACI results: JRCC -3.0%, MEE -2.1%, WLT -1.4%, ICO -1.0%, BTU -0.8%... Other news: THRX -7.4% (announces FDA complete response letter for the telavancin new drug application is incomplete), PUK -2.4%, GSK -1.3% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: FII -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at FBR), BKC -2.1% (downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer), DGX -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank).
  • January Chicago PMI 61.5 vs 57.2 consensus, December 58.7
  • January University of Michigan- final 74.4 vs 73.0 consensus, prelim 72.8
  • Oskab keegi mulle koodi öelda ?
    AAPL Mar 2010 190.000 put
    (OPR: APV100320P00190000)
  • hmm, leidsin juba ise ülesse, kuid osta ei lase? APVOR (185)
  • täna üsna kole, hea et arvutist eemal olnud, aga kõrgelt soetatud tza võib veel kasugi tuua
  • kui esmaspäeval ei põrgata, siis on veits nutune
  • SPX 1080 tasemest läbi vajunud, mis on üsna kehv märk edaspidiseks. Järgmine olulisem toetustase tundub olevat alles 1038 punkti juures.

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