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Börsipäev 10. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Arengud Kreeka ümber on selgelt testimas euro närve, mida ilmestab hästi turule pettumuse valmistanud hetk, kui Saksa valitsuse pressiesindaja eile hoogustunud bailout kuulujutud tagasi lükkas ning eur/usd kursi 1.384 pealt 1.376 peale saatis. Tänane WSJ kirjutab, et Saksamaa kaalub Euroopa Liidu partneritega koostöövõimalust laenugarantiide pakkumisel finantsilistes raskustes liikmesriikidele. Olukorda hakatakse arutama neljapäeval, kuid lõplik otsus ei pruugi sel nädalal veel tulla. Üsna huvitav on see, et euro investoritel ei näi väga suurt usku jaguvat ametlikumate sõnumite peale ning hetkel kaubeldakse allpool eelneva bailout kuulujutu taset (1.378).   

     

  • pean silmas tippu, milleni jutud võimalikust päästeplaanist eurol rallida aitasid
  • Raske lumetorm takistab USA valitsusametnike tööd, mistõttu lükatakse edasi mitmete tänaste ja homsete makroraportite avaldamine. Jaemüügi ja ettevõtete varude statistika avaldatakse neljapäeva asemel reedel ning samale päevale lükatakse ka tänane nafta- ja homne maagaasi varude raport.
  • Maagaasi varude raport avaldatakse reedel Eesti aja järgi kell 17.30 ning nafta ja mootorkütuste raport reedel kell 18.00.
  • Kui eur/usd Euroopa sessiooni ajal overnight low'd 1,3735 peale välja ei võta, ootaks tänase päeva jooksul kauplemist eilse high 1,3840 juures.
  • Eile tegi järelturul võimsa lennu Google'i (ex)konkurent Hiinas, Baidu (BIDU), kelle 4Q tulemused ja prognoosid olid väga head – link siin. Kuigi BIDU kaupleb ca 70x hinna ja kasumi suhtarvu juures on analüütikud oma ostusoovitusi täna/eile kinnitanud ja on kindlad, et ettevõte suudab sellel ja järgmisel aastal näidata ca 50% kasumikasvu. 

  • Üks tore artikkel Hiinast, kus mõõtu võtmas kiirrongid ja lennuliinid - link siin. 

    Kiirrongide tulek on sundinud mitmeid lennuliine oluliselt langetama oma piletihindu.

    Üks drastiline näide selline:

    "China Southern (ZNH) cut economy-class tickets to 140 yuan ($21) from 700 yuan on flights between Guangzhou and Changsha after a high-speed train started on the route in December. The trip now takes 2 1/2 hours by train instead of 9. "

  • German govt offcial says not aware any concrete aid for Greece eyed - DJ
    German official says no German govt doubt that Greece can serve debt - DJ
  • December Trade Balance -$40.2 bln vs -$35.8 bln consensus, prior -$36.4 bln
  • Greek PM says ready to take necessary measures to cut deficit by 4% in 2010 - DJ
  • Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +0.99%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.93%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.69%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.65% 
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0.35%
    Venemaa MICEX +0.38%
    Poola WIG +0.81%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.31%
    Hongkongi Hang Seng +0.67%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.14%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.21%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.02%
    Tai Set 50 +0.46%
    India Sensex 30 -0.75%

  • Doubting the Upside
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/10/2010 8:41 AM EST

    A pessimist is one who feels bad when he feels good for fear he'll feel worse when he feels better.
    -- Unknown

    Talk of a Greek bailout by Germany helped the market to produce a decent bounce on Tuesday. We were quite oversold already, so the news made for a convenient excuse to do some buying, but I suspect we would have seen some upside even without the news about Greece.

    Even though the bounce was big and broad, however, it didn't have the feel that bottom-fishers were anxious to rush in. It just wasn't that upbeat despite the gains. Last year when we had a bounce like this, there was always the feeling that this was the last chance to jump in before the elevator ride back up to highs.

    The downtrend of the last few weeks has affected sentiment. When our first two bounce attempts failed, the dip-buying bulls finally had to admit that maybe the market doesn't always recover in "V"-shaped fashion. There is much more nervousness now and less confidence, which may ultimately be bullish but in the shorter term is dangerous.

    We are now on our third bounce attempt since the top in mid-January, and it'll be very interesting to see what the bulls can put together this time. I certainly wasn't very impressed yesterday, especially with the mediocre close and given that we were so sensitive to any news about Greece. Strong markets run regardless of news considerations.

    Market players are very focused on the dollar, and any further rally will likely be predicated on a weaker greenback. With the problems in Europe, the dollar has been trending up lately. It bounced back up yesterday on the Greek bailout news, which is what helped propel oil, commodities and the other groups that led the action yesterday.

    At this point I remain skeptical and distrustful of further bounces. We could bounce as high as 1100 on the S&P 500 and really not change the character of this market, but the bulls need to be much more upbeat and energetic if they are going to generate the momentum to get even that far.

    The main thing that prevents me from being more positive about this market is that there still is absolutely no decent leadership and there just aren't many good charts. I see a lot of dead-cat bounces and moves back to resistance, but we just haven't had enough time yet to build bases or to find good support. The long-side plays are all just quick oversold bounces that you have to quickly flip. There is very little that I see that justifies the building of longer-term positions.

    On the other hand, there are ton of potential short setups developing as stocks bounce back to resistance on lower volume. This is the pattern that killed the bears very often last year when a "V"-shaped move developed, but this time we just aren't bouncing like we have in the past.

    I'd love to buy some longs aggressively, but they just aren't there right now. That doesn't mean we won't bounce some more, but I have no confidence in sustained upside at this time.

    Last night we had a great report from Baidu (BIDU) and one from Disney (DIS) that trapped some overeager bulls. Overseas markets were mostly up but the dollar is stronger this morning and is keeping the early action flat.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MCZ +47.1%, NTGR +14.7%, QUIK +9.9%, BIDU +8.7%, LIOX +8.0%, CPST +6.1% (also upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Northland Securities), FNSR +6.1%, SVM +5.2%, DIOD +5.0%, SGEN +4.9%, DSCM +4.7%, MICC +4.4%, RMTR +3.8%, AZPN +3.0%, CERN +1.8% ... Select European financials showing strength: ING +3.4%, PUK +3.4%, BCS +3.0%, CS +2.1%, RBS +2.0%, HBC +1.3%... Other news: ATHX +25.0% (receives U.S. patent covering adult stem cell composition & production), ALXA +21.7% (Biovail enters into license and collaboration agreement with Alexza for AZ-004), HYTM +12.5% (announces peer-reviewed publication of randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study ), ONCY +11.9% (continued strength from this week's 20% jump), LFC +3.9% (light volume, to speed up business structure adjustment in 2010 - Xinhua), TSRA +3.9% (will replace Financial Federal in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), CEO +3.3% (partner Husky finds gas field in S.China Sea - China Daily), MITI +2.7% (still checking), TM +2.0% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: ADBE +4.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), DELL +3.3% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), VE +1.8% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS ), NYX +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Calyon), FWLT +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Davenport).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DF -7.9% MT -5.2%, EXBD -4.8%, LNCE -3.8%, PSEC -3.3%, ICE -3.2%, LGF -3.1%, ASEI -3.0%, BOBE -2.8%, S -2.7%, CXW -2.3%, EOG -2.2%, DIS -1.5%, BHP -1.3%... Select airline names ticking lower: DAL -2.7%, AMR -2.0%, LCC -1.9%... Other news: ISIS -13.9% (Genzyme announces Mipomersen phase 3 study results), MU -2.5% (announces agreement to acquire Numonyx in all-stock transaction), GSK -2.1% (trading ex dividend), SYT -1.7% (still checking), NOK -1.4% (still checking), RDS.A -1.2% (trading ex dividend)... Analyst comments: ENER -3.1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), PKY -2.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Raymond James), CRXL -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), MEE -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), TLVT -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray).
  • Bernanke says Fed may opt to raise discount rate before long - Bloomberg
  • ECB to hold telephone conference on Greece later Wednesday, source says - DJ
  • Greek PM says Greece has not asked for help - Reuters
  • Eurogroup's Juncker says to present Eurogroup plan for helping Greece at EU summit, says newspaper - Reuters
  • 10-year Note Auction Results: Yield- 3.692% (expected 3.680%); Bid/Cover- 2.67x; Indirect Bidders 33.2%
  • CME Group closes in on purchase of Dow Jones Indexes unit - WSJ
    WSJ reports the co was close to finalizing a deal to purchase Dow Jones' stock-indexing business, said people familiar with the matter. The price was expected to be greater than $600 million, said one of these people, though an exact price couldn't be determined. Discussions have been going on for weeks and it was still possible a deal could fall through. The latest indications, however, were that a transaction could be announced in the coming days... Under the terms being discussed, the CME would continue using the Dow Jones name in its investment products, keeping intact the 114-year-old Dow Jones Industrial Average.
  • France, Germany working jointly on Greece rescue plan, source says - WSJ
  • Fed's Fisher says 'no substitution' for dollar as chief reserve currency - DJ
  • France thinks EU, not IMF, should deal with Greek problem. according to source - Reuters
  • Fed's Fisher say "sympathetic" to Hoenig dissent, was never comfortable with "extended period" language - Reuters
  • Treasury's Geithner says "lot of repair work still ahead" - DJ
  • ymeramees, ma olen kogu aeg mõelnud, miks nii on läinud. Miks imago nii muutub?
  • Pildiallkirjadega on küsimust võib-olla ülemäära lihtsustatud. Imago tegelikult võib-olla ei muutugi: ühel pildil on inimene nii, nagu ta iseendale paistis antiikajal ja paistab ka tänapäeval (puhas moraalne pale, õilsad kavatsused, vankumatud moraalsed põhimõtted ja igati põhjendatud õigused), teisel on see, mida kaasinimesed arvasid/arvavad …

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