LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 29. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Nädalavahetusel läks Eesti üle suveajale ning koos sellega toimub meie aja järgi kauplemine USA turul taas tavapärasel vahemikul ehk 16.30-23.00. Antud kauplemisnädal on vaid nelja päevaline, kuna reedel tähistatakse Suurt Reedet ning seetõttu on nädala viimasel päeval börsid suletud. Täna, homme ja ülehomme on käsil 2010. aasta 1. kvartali viimased kauplemispäevad - ajalooliselt on need window dressing efekti tõttu olnud pigem positiivsed.

    Makroandmete poole pealt ootame täna kell 15.30 veebruarikuu eraisikute sissetulekute muutust (ootus +0.1%) ja kulutuste muutust (ootus +0.3%). Praeguseks hetkeks on S&P500 ja Nasdaq100 indeksi futuurid vastavalt ca +0.5% ja +0.4%.

    Kõigile LHV foorumikülastajatele siinkohal aga palve minu poolt. Oma magistritöö raames palun abi ca 10 minutilise aktsiaturgude teemalise küsitluse täitmisel. Tõsi, tavaliselt pooldame selliste küsitluste panemist 'vaba teema' alla, kuid kuna töö teema on seotud otseselt investeerimise ja aktsiaturgudega, kasutan moderaatori õigusi ning levitan oma küsitlust kuni märtsikuu lõpuni ka siinses börsipäeva foorumis. Link küsitlusele on siin. Palun kõigil, kel vähegi võimalik, selle täitmiseks 10 minutit eraldada. Suured tänud kõigile vastajatele! 

  • Joel, äkki pärast avalikustad kuidas foorumlased küsimustele vastasid? Vastata on muidugi päris keeruline, sest investori tuju on ju iga üksikjuhtumi korral erinev. Peaks iseenda jaoks kasutama valedetektorit.
  • Ma vastan küsimustele siis, kui see töö täies mahus ka pärast siia üles riputatakse! ;) Oleks õnev lugemine...
  • Vastake-vastake : ) Ainult paar päeva veel panengi seda linki siia. Ja ühel hetkel pärast andmete kokku kogumist ja töötlemist teen siin portaalis foorumis vastanute arvamuste põhjal ühe kokkuvõtva loo.
  • Bloomberg on väga osavalt kokku pannud dollaripullide arvamuste seeria, kus üks mainekas nimi teise järel kiidab dollarit. Põhjuseks USA kiirem majanduskasv ja spekulatsioonid, et Föderaalreserv tõstab juba loetud kuude pärast intressimäärasid. Link videole on siin. Gartman ütleb isegi, et võime taas näha taset €1=$1.

  • Nii ta on. Iga vastaja vastused on erinevad soltuvalt tema tujudest. Aga kas sa votad neid arvesse?

    Kunagi osalesin samuti yhes katses, kus mojutati elmagnetlainetega aju ja yritati leida mingeid seoseid varjestatud olekus.
    Pidi siis mingeid arvutuslikke teste tegema
    Loomulikult ei kysitud, et kas ma olen pidu pannud terve oo voi tulen testile v2ljapuhanuna. Igatahes minu testi tulemused voivad varieeruda oo ja p2ev.
  • Huvitav, kas keegi on dollari osas veel negatiivne või kõik pullid? Hetkel mulle ühtegi nime pähe kohe ei hüppa...

    March 29 (Bloomberg) -- The strengthening U.S. economy, subdued inflation and rising stock prices are propelling the dollar rally into its fifth month as traders seek refuge from Europe’s fiscal crisis and Japanese deflation.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. ended bets on a falling dollar last week after the trades lost 2.8 percent.

    Strategists are raising greenback forecasts at the fastest pace since last March, just before U.S. stimulus efforts that poured as much as $12.8 trillion into the economy ended the currency’s strongest rally in 28 years. Median predictions for the dollar against 47 currencies tracked in Bloomberg surveys rose an average of 1.4 percentage points in the month to March 24.A year after correctly predicting the currency’s decline and likening it to the fall of Rome, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc’s Alan Ruskin said it may soar 22 percent to $1.10 per euro if Greece defaults. 

  • Tuletab meelde eelmise aasta sügist, kui dollarikaru olemine oli 'in'. Nüüd on valuutad pooli vahetanud, kuid ega see väga kaua kesta ei saa isegi arvestades Vahemeremaade probleeme.
    Euro nõrgeneb --> ELi eksport kasvab --> nõudlus eurode järele kasvab --> euro tõuseb
    On ju Ameerika probleemid palju tõsisemad, osariikide ja föderaalvalitsuse võlast pole viimasel ajal pea midagi räägitud. USA defitsiidid kasvavad jätkuvalt, mis peaks surve dollarile taastama, vaatamata lühiajalisest optimismist majanduskasvu osas. Seejuures tuleb arvestada ka sellega, et kui Hiina renminbi kurssi tõstetakse (vahet pole kummal pool ookeani see asi ära tehakse), siis tulemus on see, et USA impordib endale Hiina inflatsiooni. Kõige tipuks tasub meeles pidada ka Obama lubadust Ameerika eksporti järgneva 5 aasta jooksul kahekordistada ('tea kas see nüüd reaalne on, kuid selline avaldus annab USD kursi osas suuna kätte).
  • Mina oma piiritus naiivsuses oleks dollari viimase aja tugevusele pannud diagnoosiks hoopis euro nõrkuse... ;)
  • valuutade tugevusest ja nõrkusest võiks rääkida pigem valuutakorvi vastu - USD tugevnemine EUR vastu ei pruugi tähenda USD tugevust kui USD samal ajal teiste suuremate valuutade (AUD, CAD, JPY, GBP, CHF jne.) vastu nõrgeneb

  • Goldman Sachs kaitseb täna E&P sektorit ning tõstab sektori soovituse 'neutraalse' pealt 'atraktiivsele.' Väike kokkuvõte siia ka:

    28% upside; gas/oil prices likely to rise

    We upgrade the E&P sector to Attractive from Neutral as: (1) we believe natural gas prices are near bottom; (2) we remain positive on oil prices; and (3) E&P stocks reflect below $5.50/MMBtu long-term natural gas prices at $80/bbl WTI oil which we view as unsustainable. We see 28% upside to our 6-month DCF- and multiples-based target prices, (some of which are revised), which reflect our 4Q 2010 $6/MMBtu Henry Hub natural gas view (below our mid-cycle) and lower 2010/11 price forecasts and earnings estimates.

    Catalysts: Coal floor, lower rig count, less LNG, demand, lack of E&P 2011 hedges

    We have greater confidence that: (1) coal-to-gas substitution is likely to increase at current or lower prices; (2) the rig count will fall from current levels, though production remains a concern; (3) broader demand appears to be improving; (4) because E&Ps are only lightly hedged for 2011, increases in oil and/or gas prices are needed to keep gas markets balanced; and (5) LNG imports will likely continue to surprise to the downside.
  • UBS võrreldes Goldmaniga pisut karusem:

    Lowering 2010, 2011, and LT normalized natural gas price forecasts We are reducing our 2010, 2011, and long-term normalized natural gas composite spot price forecasts (per MMBtu) to $4.70, $5.40, and $6.50, respectively, from $6.15, $7.00, and $7.00, respectively. We are also cutting our NYMEX natural gas price forecasts (per MMBtu) for these periods to $4.85, $5.50, and $6.50, from $6.25, $7.00, and $7.00, respectively.

    US production, LNG supply, and coal/gas switching dynamics prompt cut We had initially assumed the >50% decline in the US natural gas rig count from its Fall 2008 peak would cause production to decline and enable a consistent reduction in the storage surplus throughout 1H10. While colder than normal weather and fuel substitution has helped cut much of the storage surplus, the resiliency of US production, rising rig count, and impressive growth profiles of large US producers give cause for concern. Moreover, we believe low natural gas prices are required this spring and summer to: 1) prevent a disproportionate portion of LNG shipments from landing on US shores, and 2) limit the reversal of coal/gas switching.
  • February Personal Spending +0.3% vs +0.3% consensus, prior revised to +0.4% from +0.5%
    February Personal Income +0.0% vs +0.1% consensus, prior revised to +0.3% from +0.1%

    Makro enam-vähem vastavalt ootustele.
  • Seega selle aasta jooksul millalgi peaks valitsus Citigroupi investorite nimekirjast väljuma.

    Citigroup: US Treasury announces plan to sell Citigroup common stock.

    DJ reports the U.S. Treasury Department announced it plans to sell roughly 7.7 billion Citigroup common shares this year. The Treasury received the shares as part of an agreement in 2009 that allowed the U.S. government to receive common shares in exchange for preferred stock. The Treasury acquired the preferred stock from Citigroup through the capital purchase program as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, which helped bail out financial cos during the financial crisis... The Treasury said that it will sell Citigroup common shares into the market "through various means in an orderly and measured fashion" and that "the manner, amount and timing of the sale is dependent upon a number of factors." The Treasury said it would use a "pre-arranged written trading plan," but did not elaborate further.
  • Huvitav, millist möju see avaldus Citigroupi aktsiale avaldab
  • USA turud alustavad päeva ca 0.3% kõrgemalt.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +0.30%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.01%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.06%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.14%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0.29%
    Venemaa MICEX +1.22%
    Poola WIG +0.47%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.09%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.88%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.10%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.20%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.26%
    Tai Set 50 -1.20%
    India Sensex 30 +0.38%

  • Controlling the Beast
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/29/2010 8:52 AM EDT

    Change is inevitable -- except from a vending machine.

    -- Robert C. Gallagher

    Last week, the market had its worst three-day stretch since our most recent rally began back on Feb. 5. The S&P500 fell just 0.65% Wednesday through Friday, but it was the most selling pressure we have had in weeks.

    Based on this pause in what has been a remarkably buoyant market, a number of traders are now ready to proclaim that we are about to see a change in market character. To some degree, this is probably just wishful thinking, as it has been a very difficult trading environment, with little volatility and no pullbacks for easier entry. Even the bulls had started to complain about how we needed a rest.

    While the trading over the last three days is a slight change in character, we still have not seen any real change in the technical conditions of the major indices. All that has happened is some slight consolidation and minor profit taking. This may evolve into something more ominous, but nothing yet has happened to suggest that that will be the case.

    What I continue to find most striking about the market action lately is how little enthusiasm there has been during this stunning rally. Until the past few days, we hadn't seen selling pressure for more than a half-day in over a month, yet there has been little celebration, and I have certainly not seen market players rushing in to buy like they did during rallies in past years.

    Perhaps that lack of joy is what keeps us walking a wall of worry, but market players seem more complacent than skeptical. The only news that has impacted the market to any large extent lately in the strength in the dollar, but it is weak again this morning and that is pushing us up.

    I did my usual review of charts this weekend and turned up very little of interest. There are lots of extended stocks that have yet to consolidate enough to offer good entry points. There aren't many pockets of strong momentum, and the overall leadership isn't very focused. We have had some strength in big caps like Amazon (AMZN) , Baidu (BIDU) and Priceline (PCLN) , but they have been choppy and aren't moving the way the broad market indices have.

    That action at the end of last week gives some hope to those who are rooting for the market to pull back or consolidate, but I'm not going to jump to the conclusion that the long-awaited and much-hoped-for correction is here. The market this morning is right back to the upbeat mood we had for so long, but that is pretty typical for a Monday morning.

    Despite the very slight dip last week, the bulls remain in control and there isn't any reason yet to believe that the uptrend is ending. It sure would make for more interesting trading if we had some more aggressive selling, but the market beast always does its best to keep things difficult.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SORL +13.8%, APOL +2.7%, CALM +1.6% (light volume)... M&A news: BELM +28.6% (to be acquired by Avnet for $7.00 per share; raises lower end of Q1 rev guidance)... Select financial names showing continued strength: ING +2.3%, CS +1.8%, AIG +1.7% (ILFC's John Plueger to retire), UBS +1.3%, BAC +1.2%, MS +1.0% (will be Citi stake underwriter - CNBC)... Select metals/mining names trading higher: MT +3.1%, BBL +2.2%, BHP +2.0%, GDX +1.8%, RTP +1.7%, ABX +1.3%, GG +1.3%... Other news: OXBT +29.3% (light volume, has begun distribution for its newly formulated Dermacyte Oxygen Concentrate for the beauty and skin care market; filed for a $75 mln common stock of shelf offering), SATC +5.8% (still checking), VTIV +4.7% (announces approach from investors regarding possible transaction), IOC +4.0% (still checking), ERIC +2.3% (LM Ericsson signs Chinese deals worth $1.8 bln - AP), VIA.B +2.1% (mentioned positively in Barron's), AA +1.8% (still checking), SPWRA +1.8% (completed its acquisition of SunRay Renewable Energy), AAPL +1.3% (still checking for anything specific), ITT +1.3% (mentioned positively in Barron's)... Analyst comments: STL +5.6% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus; tgt $11), SWN +4.2% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman), EOG +2.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts), VALE +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    General news: AIB -14.8% (confirms that it is in discussions with the Financial Regulator in order to agree its capital requirements), IRE -5.9% (down in sympathy with AIB), AGNC -4.7% (trading ex dividend), ABIO -2.7% (still checking), GTY -2.6% (files $350 mln mixed securities shelf offering in its S-3 filing), PHG -2.3% (trading ex dividend), F -1.0% (reaches agreement to sell Volvo Cars and related assets to Geely; sale expected to close in 3Q; announces secondary public offering by UAW VEBA of 362,391,305 warrants to purchase common stock at an exercise price of $9.20 per share)... Analyst comments: DWA -4.7% (Dragon opening weekend doesn't slay moviegoers: Only $43 mln in sales, expect some DWA weakness - Wedbush), LNCR -2.1% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), PEET -1.1% (downgraded to Underperform at FBR Capital).
  • March Dallas Manufacturing Activity +7.2% vs +5.2% consensus
  • CDC says seeing "worrisome H1N1 trend" in southeastern US - CNBC

    Uudisest said kerge tõuke SVA,BCRX, NVAX, HEB.
  • OPEC will not let oil price rise too high, OPEC chief says - WSJ
  • AAPL rallis järelturul pea ~$236 tasemeni sellise uudise toel:
    The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Apple is working on an iPhone for summer release.
    The Journal also reports that Apple is building a CDMA version for Verizon.

  • Short some T & PALM selle AAPL uudise peale:

    * T jaoks on iPhone päris paljudele AINUS põhjus, miks AT&T võrgus olla.. nüüd kaotavad kõvasti kliente väga suure tõenäosusega
    * PALM on nüüd veel palju suurema tõenäosusega pankroticase. VZ oli nende põhiline müügikanal ja see uudis näitab, et no way Verizon enam Palmi asju haibib.

    Pakuks homseks T mingi -4% ja PALM -10% või rohkemgi.

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