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Börsipäev 2. aprill

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kuigi kauplemist täna Euroopas, USA-s ja valdavas osas ka Aasias ei toimu, on Ühendriikide valitsus otsustanud kuulõpu tööjõuraporti (kl 15.30) nagu kord ja kohus avaldada. Veebruaris kadus väljaspool põllumajandussektorit 36 000 töökohta, mis oli konsensuse -100 000 kõrval selgelt parem ning näitas, et analüütikud ülehindasid lumetormide mõju. Seekord ollakse väljas oluliselt optimistlikuma nägemusega, kui uusi töökohtasid pidanuks konsensuse arvates märtsis tekkima 184 000. Siin on mõnede suuremate analüüsimajade prognoosid ja kommentaarid:

    Goldman Sachs (langetas eile ootuse 275 000 pealt 200 000 peale):The underlying assumptions are +25k in underlying net hiring (vs. +50k previously), +100k for a weather rebound (unchanged), and +75k for temporary Census hires (vs. +125k previously).

    Wells Fargo: A strong monthly boost from Census Bureau hiring should be the catalyst that finally pushes the payroll change into positive territory. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 9.7 percent, though re-entering job seekers could still push the unemployment rate slightly higher in the months to come. Look for additional gains in working hours and hourly earnings to confirm the firmer labor market tone. Jobless claims remain stubbornly high, pointing to a weak underlying trend in private employment growth, and consumer confidence stumbled in light of labor market uncertainty.

    JPMorgan: Nonfarm payrolls declined 36,000 in February, but there is ongoing debate about whether payrolls might have posted a significant increase in the absence of the blizzards that struck during the February survey week. The forecast looks for a 150,000 increase in March payrolls, with 75,000 of this total accounted for by temporary hiring of Census workers. 

  • Briefing raporteerib, et kokkuvõttes headline numbrid igaljuhul oodatust pisut nõrgemad, aga siin tuleb kindlasti numbrite sisse vaadata.

    March Nonfarm Payrolls 162K vs. 184K consensus; prior revised to -14K from -36K
    March Unemployment Rate 9.7% vs. 9.7% consensus; prior unchanged at 9.7%
    March Avg Hourly Earnings M/M -0.1% vs +0.2% consensus; Y/Y 1.8% vs +1.9% consensus
    March Average Weekly Hours 34.0 vs 33.9 consensus, prior revised to 33.9 from 33.8

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