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Börsipäev 25. mai

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eilne langus USA börsidel on üle kandunud ka Aasiasse, kus oli täna näha väga korralikku müügisurvet, mis lükkas regiooni aktsiate käekäiku kajastava MSCI Asia Pacific indeksi madalaimale tasmele alates 30. juulist! Aasias ollakse jätkuvalt mures Euroopa võlaprobleemide eskaleerumise pärast, mille kohta üks fondijuht ütles hommikul Tokios: “Europe is walking on land mines that have yet to explode,” 

    Lisaks kasvavad pinged Aasias Lõuna-Korea ja Põhja-Korea vahel, kus viimane on väidetavalt oma armeed mobiliseerimas. Nt Mikseri kommetaar hiljutisele Lõuna-Korea sõjalaeva tulistamisele:

    «Viimaste aastate provokatsioonid on piirdunud raketikatsetustega ja rakettide ülelennutamistega, aga taolist intsidenti, kus lastaks põhja sõjalaev kümnete Lõuna-Korea sõjaväelastega, ei mäleta lähiminevikust keegi,» (link)

    Ka Euroopa börsid on alustamas päeva võimsa kukkumisega - nt Londonis FTSE 100 -2.5% (madalamal 5000 punktist) ja Madriid IBEX 35 -2.9%.

  • Kiire ülevaade ka sellest, mis eile USAs õigupoolest toimus.

    Päeva esimene pool möödus kenasti, kuid lõpp rikuti ära. Dow lõpetas päeva 10,066p tasemel (-1.24%), S&P 500 1,073p (-1.29%) ja Nasdaq 2,213 (-0.69%).

    Hommik on siiani olnud eilse päeva lõpuga väga sarnane. S&P 500 indeksfutuur 1.83% miinuses ehk 1046.75p tasemel ning Dow nüüd juba alla 10,000 taseme (9,853p).

    Euro dollari suhtes 0.93% miinuses (1 EUR = 1.2237 USD) ja toornafta futuur omakorda 1.55% miinuses (barreli hind $68.45).

  • Päeva teises pooles tuleb USAst ka olulisi makrouudised:

    • kell 16:00 teatatakse kinnisvara hindade käekäiku mõõtva Case-Shiller 20-city indeksi muutus märtsis (konsensus ootab, et kinnisvara hindade tõus on hoogustunud +3% peale)
    • kell 17:00 teatatakse tarbijausalduse maikuu näit (konsensus ootab, et USA tarbijate kindlus on mais kasvanud 58.3 punkti peale. USAs moodustab eratarbimine ca 70% SKPst ja tegu on kindlasti olulise näiduga ka börsidele)

     

  • Toornafta juulifutuurid tegid viimaste minutitega läbi 0.8 punktise kukkumise lisaks eelnevale 1.9 punktile ja on nüüd juba ~4% languses. Hetkel eelturul meeleolud ikka väga närvilised: ES 2.4% languses, YM ja NQ indikeerivad 2% miinust, EUR/USD 1.2219 tasemel, 1,3% languses ja kuld samuti 0.6% punast kündmas.
  • Euroopa turud ca -3% ning USA indeksite futuurid ca -2.5% kuni -3.0%. S&P500 indeks on sellega justpraegu testimas veebruarikuu korrektsiooni käigus tehtud põhja. Seega vöib öelda, et oleme ca viimase 7 kuu madalaimatel tasemetel ning sama hinnaga sai aktsiaid osta näiteks 2009. aasta septembris.

  • Eile avaldasime LHV Maailma Pro all analüüsi energiasektorile teenuseid pakkuvast Weatherford Internationalist (WFT). Kuigi hetkel on Euroopa probleemid ja üha pingestuvad suhted Lõuna- ja Põhja-Korea vahel pikaajalisest energiavajaduse kasvust olulisemaks saanud, siis usume, et kui naftahind päris kokku ei kuku, tasub ka WFT poole piilduda.

    Üks väljavõte Jim Crameri blogist ka siia, millele eile õhtul veel peale sattusin:

    Jim Cramer: "So we're never drilling again? All of those projects are going to be cancelled? BP's (BP - commentary - Trade Now) woes means that big prospects off of Australia and West Africa and Brazil are just kaput and we aren't going to see the Russians or the Iraqis drill? We are now supposed to believe that because the futures came down to $70, it's all over?

    Look, it's one thing for Transocean (RIG - commentary - Trade Now) to go down. I mean, that company's almost in as much "trouble" as BP. But does anyone really think that Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Trade Now) is getting its long-term contracts canceled because of $70 oil? Do people really believe that the Gulf of Mexico is the only place that gets drilled? Do people think that major on-land projects are getting canceled, the ones that cost $2 for nat gas or $15 for oil? I mean, what the heck?

    Anyway, we can all see the bids dry up and the Oil Services HOLDRS (OIH - commentary - Trade Now) just getting killed.

    Me? I like Weatherford (WFT - commentary - Trade Now) -- big position now for Action Alerts PLUS, but not big enough -- and I am amazed that SLB has gotten this low. Amazed. Especially because SLB has no exposure to the disaster in the Gulf and is focused on tons of long-term projects that make a ton of sense at these prices."
  • Lõuna-Korea aktsiaturg on põhjanaabriga suhete halvenemise taustal läbi teinud ca 5.5%lise korrektsiooni ning nüüdseks kaubeldakse seal 14 kuu põhjades ehk madalaimal tasemel alates 2009. aasta aprillikuust. 2010. aasta alguses tehtud tipust on kukutud 19%, millest enamus on tulnud paari viimase nädalaga.

  • Veel üks väga-väga punane päev. Nii Aasia, Euroopa kui ka USA indeksite futuurid eelturul on kõik ca 2% kuni 3% miinuses. Mõne riigi - näiteks Lõuna-Korea - indeksite liikumise puhul ei piirdutud ka 5%lise langusega.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX -3.07%
    Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -3.32%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 -2.72%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -3.91%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -2.37%
    Venemaa MICEX -3.79%
    Poola WIG -2.01%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.06%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.47%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.89%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.02%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -5.54%
    Tai Set 50 -3.21%
    India Sensex 30 -2.71%

  • Another Bumpy Day
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/25/2010 8:33 AM EDT

    To understand Europe, you have to be a genius ... or French.
    -- Madeleine Albright

    It is often said that the market hates uncertainty, and we have plenty of it this morning. Tensions are escalating between North and South Korea, pushing Asian stocks to a 10-month low. North Korea has often made threats of war. In the past year they have warned of "unprecedented nuclear strikes" and "merciless strikes," so there isn't anything really surprising there.

    The big problem for the market this morning remains the European debt crisis. The more that we know about the problem in Europe, the more worrisome it is. Economists from RBS estimate that the total amount of debt issued by Greece, Portugal and Spain and held by third parties outside those countries is around 2 trillion euro. That is more than 20% of the eurozone GDP and far higher than prior estimates.

    In many ways the European crisis sounds more and more like the subprime crisis as it unfolded in late 2008. At first it was supposed to be a small and contained problem -- just like Greece. Then it became clear that other small entities also had problems -- Spain and Portugal -- but the crisis spread rapidly as the interconnectedness of the financial problems become clear. Even strong firms like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) were at risk due to their use of leverage.

    Rather than dwell too much on the negative parallels, we need to make sure we navigate this market effectively and protect our capital. The recent action has been a classic breakdown, and hopefully market players have increased caution and raised cash.

    Market players have become so used to the quick recoveries and "V"-shaped bounces of the last year, I suspect a fair number were caught trying to anticipate that sort of action once again. The market has a strong tendency to turn on us once it makes us comfortable with a certain pattern of action. The "V"-shaped moves never were normal market action, but they occurred so frequently that we had to anticipate that the pattern would continue. This time it didn't, and that has trapped a lot of market players and is helping to accelerate the downside pressure we are seeing.

    The best advice I can give at this point is to respect the fact that the character of the market has shifted and the trend is to the downside. We will have some big bounces and some upside action, but you need to be thinking about selling strength rather than buying weakness in a downtrend.

    One of the things that always drives me crazy in a downtrend is how Wall Street pundits keep trying to call a bottom. I can assure you that we are going to hear some talking heads today say that the worst is over and this is a great buying opportunity. They will get it right at some point, but this advice usually just serves to keep market players in poorly acting stocks.

    The biggest losses in a downtrend usually come about because people are frozen and afraid to act. They are convinced that the minute they sell, the bottom-callers will be right and the market will suddenly turn back up and make them feel like fools. Typically a correction like we are undergoing will produce new leadership once we start to trend back up. The stocks that you hold on the way down are seldom the best ones to make up your losses when we turn back up.

    We have an extremely ugly open on the way, which is going to attract some dip-buyers at some point, but an awful lot of market players are trapped in this market and will want out if they can find some good exits. That is what overhead resistance is all about.

    Until the market is at least back to where it closed yesterday, we shouldn't even use the word "bottom." Even then, we have formidable resistance around 1100 on the S&P 500. Forget the "V"-shaped bounce this time. Things have changed, and this market needs to do a lot of work before we can put much new capital to work for anything other than a quick oversold bounce.

    Buckle on your trading helmet and goggles. It is going to be a bumpy ride.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Few names are seeing early strength in premarket trading.

    General news: NBIX +55.1% (announces positive results in daisy PETAL study; also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), SUNH +2.9% (announces plan to separate its operating and real property assets), ALKS +2.0% (announces priority review by FDA for VIVITROL for opioid dependence).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AIR -10.6%, TSL -4.3%, PVH -3.8%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: AIB -12.4%, IRE -10.7%, PUK -7.1%, ING -6.6%, MBI -6.5%, STD -5.9%, BBVA -5.5%, AIG -5.3%, LYG -5.1%, SFI -4.8%, HBAN -4.7%, CS -4.8%, RF -4.6%, RBS -4.5%, NBG -4.2% (downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at JP Morgan), USB -4.0%, C -4.0%, UBS -3.9%, DB -3.1%, JPM -3.1%, BAC -2.6%, HBC -2.3%, WFC -2.1%, GS -1.6%, MS -0.8%, .

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: PAL -5.2%, SWC -4.6%, MT -4.6%, RTP -3.5%, HL -3.7%, IVN -3.6%, BHP -3.2%, VALE -0.7%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: TOT -4.3%, PBR -3.7%, STO -3.5%, E -3.1%, SU -3.1%, SLB -2.6%, BP -2.4% (files additional 6-K, further detailing updates in response to the MC252 oil well incident in the Gulf of Mexico), RDS.A -2.1%, XOM -1.9%, .

    Select solar names under pressure: LDK -6.0%, CSIQ -5.9%, YGE -4.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Ardour Capital), FSLR -3.5%, SPWRA -3.1%.

    Other news: DRH -8.0% (announces pricing of public follow-on offering of 20 mln shares of common stock at $8.40/share), EWY -5.8% (trading down 5.8% at 41.00 in the pre-market on growing Korean tensions), TS -5.2% (still checking), WNC -3.8% (Announces pricing of public offering of common stock at $6.50/share ), NVDA -2.4% (ITC extends target date of final determination in Rambus matter regarding NVIDIA (NVDA) products), CLF -2.4% (proposes transactions to acquire KWG Resources and/or Spider Resources ),...

    Analyst comments: AIXG -11.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), ARMH -4.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), EMC -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), COCO -1.7% (downgraded to Hold at Argus), ODSY -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank).
  • USA kinnisvara hindade kasv oli märtsis 20 suurimas linnas 2.3% yoy, mis oli madalam analüütikute poolt oodatust. Võrreldes veebruariga kukkusid kinnisvara hinnad Case-Shilleri indeksi järgi 0.5% märtsis.

    "The housing market may be in better shape than this time last year; but, when you look at recent trends there are signs of some renewed weakening in home prices," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, in a statement. (marketwatch)

     

  • Nüüd on Ameerikal jälle hea öelda et euroopa on süüdi eelolevas majanduskriisis, nagu neil oleks olukord parem.
    Huvitav on see et ei loe siin enam see et eelnevas kvartalis olid enamus firmadel korralikud tulemused.
    Korraga on kõik halb ja kõik langeb olenemata sektorist. On muidugi üksikuid erandeid.
    Fantastiline maailm.
  • May Consumer Confidence 63.3 vs 58.8 consensus, April 57.7
  • Mõnest kohast võib nüüd kuulda/lugeda juba võimalusest, et Euroopa Keskpank võib lähiajal intressimäärasid langetada. Föderaalreservi intressid on niigi 0% ligidal, kuid kuna Euroopa Keskpanga omad on 1.0% peal, siis ECB saaks teoreetiliselt neid allapoole tõmmata küll.
  • Huvitavat lugemist euro ja Euroopa kohta, tasakaalustamaks ühepoolseks muutunud diskussiooni:
    Adam Hamilton (Zeal): Euro Panic Buying Op
    David Kotok (Cumberland): The Eurozone and Greece
    + tänahommikune press release Eurostatilt: industrial orders up 5.2% mom in the euro area (+5.9% EU27)

    Ma ei taha sellega kuidagi väita, et Euroopa probleemid ei ole olulised, kuid need on mõnevõrra üleliialdatud ja seda eriti siis, kui arvestada, et EU võlapakett katab kõik lähituleviku refin vajadused PIGSide jaoks (Kotoki artiklist saab täpsemalt lugeda). Mulle tundub (ma võin eksida), et Euroopa võlakriis on sattunud samale ajale üldise likviidsuse vähenemisega (LIBOR, LIBOR-OIS ning TED spread ning äsja taastatud dollari swapid on selle tõestuseks). Kuigi likviidsus on vähenenud juba märtsist saadik, ei taha enamik turukommentaatoreid (ja seda eriti teisel pool Atlandit) miskipärast tunnistada, et probleem ei seisne ainult Kreekas ja Hispaanias. Aeg-ajalt on ringi visatud ka ideed, et käimas on suuremahuline carry trade'ide reversimine, kuid seda on vist päris keeruline tõestada kuivõrd carry trade'ide kohta usaldusväärne statistika puudub.
  • Kokkuvõttes võib tänase kohta öelda lihtsalt, et 'väga ilus karulõks' neile, kes hakkasid hommikul 6. mai põhjade läbimise järel panustama agressiivselt täiendavale langusele. Indeksid on -3% pealt tulnud välja ja jõudnud plussi!
  • Ma olen pehmelt öeldes sokkeritud , kas LHV ei ole kauplemis eeskirjad , real aja skaala ei ulatu sinnani ja nemad otsustavad osta ära , peaasi käive oleks ja raha kätte saaks, see on heale tavale vastu olus (minu teada).
  • Mingit uut ravimit testitakse vist jälle.
  • jaankm
    Mis sa ostsid siis endale LHV soovitusel?:D huvitav oleks teada
  • Tegelikult peaks olema foorumisse postitamisel automaatne õigekirjakontroll: kui on üle kolme grammatikavea, siis postitada ei lase. Aitaks mõnel postitajal mõttelõnga ka korrastada. Vist.
  • Vaadates seda turgu, siis mulle tundub, et selle taga on mingid suurema mahhinatsioonid mis alles hiljem välja tulevad.
  • Põhimõtteliselt konspiratiivteooria oletus, mida vist ka kusagilt kuulsin, et GS, näitab usa valitsusele kes peremees on. Aga kahjuks jah teooriana on ilgelt nunnu, muidu kurat jah, paanika on lahe turgudel :)
  • Mahhinatsioon on see et teatud tegelased pole saand õigel ajal rongile ja tahavad positsioone täiendada,kes need mõjukad finantstegelased küll on?See mõte võib ja arvatavasti ongi jabur:)

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