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Börsipäev 28. mai

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kuna esmaspäeval peetakse USAs Memorial Day'd, siis on USAs täna tegu maikuu viimase kauplemispäevaga. Hetkel on USA suurte indeksite maikuu tootluseks veel ca 7% miinust, kuid võrreldes paari päeva taguse -12%ga, on tehtud korralik taastumine ning eilse börsipäeva õhtul nähtud lühikeste positsioonide katmise ralli aitas S&P500 indeksi tõsta juba pealepoole 1100 punkti.

    Majandusraportitest on täna kell 15.30 oodata aprillikuu eraisikute sissetulekute muutust (ootus +0.4%) ja kulutuste muutust (ootus +0.3%). Kell 16.45 on aprillikuu Chicago PMI indeks (ootus 60.0 punkti) ja kell 16.55 Michigani Ülikooli maikuu sentimendiindeks, millelt oodatakse 73.2 punktilist näitu. Üldiselt, mida suuremad kõik need näitajad on, seda parem.

    Hetkel on USA indeksite futuurid kerges ca 0.2%lises languses.
  • USA Ookeani ja Atmosfääri Administratsioon - NOAA - andis eile välja pressiteate, kus ütleb, et ootab sel aastal 'aktiivset' kuni 'ekstreemselt aktiivset' orkaanihooaega Mehhiko lahel. Link NOAA pressiteatele on siin. 

    NOAA prognooside järgi võib 2010. aasta orkaanihooaeg minna ajalukku kui ühe aktiivseimana. Prognoosi võrdlused keskmistega:

    14-23 nimetatud tormi vs keskmine 11

    8-14 orkaani vs keskmine 6

    3-7 suurt orkaani (kategooriad 3, 4 ja 5) vs keskmine 2

    Seega NOAA prognoos ütleb, et energiaturul võib sel sügisel taas nalja hakata saama. Kui suuri orkaane tuleb tõesti nii palju, on potentsiaal Mehhiko lahe infrastruktuuri lõhkumiseks võrdlemisi suur, mis tähendab, et liikumised energiahindades võivad olla kiired ja suured.

    Üheks võitjaks sellest prognoosist on kindlasti LHV Maailma Pro investeerimisidee Chesapeake Energy (CHK), kes puurib kogu oma maagaasi USA maismaal ning on praegu ootamas kõrgemaid energiahindu, et 2011. aasta toodangut saaks hakata ette ära müüma. Samal ajal loodan, et BP suudab naftalekke enne orkaanihooaega ikka kenasti ära lappida ja Mehhiko lahe naftareostusest ära puhastada, enne kui see orkaanituultega teab-kuhu triivida võib.

  • OT: See orkaanihoiatus veel puudus. Hakkame nüüd mudeleid treima, mis nende veealuste nafta-kemikaali klimpidega juhtuma hakkab.
  • Apple'i (AAPL) aktsia sõpradele teadmiseks, et ka Cramer on teiega ühel nõul. Cramer ütles eile, et peab aktsiat ostuvääriliseks ja usub, et ettevõttel on piisavalt ruumi laieneda.
  • Kirde-USAs asuv Marcelluse gaasiväli on just see, kus Chesapeake Energy (CHK) plaanib müüa 20% oma osalusest välisinvestorile. Täna tuleb teade, et Royal Dutch Shell on ostnud $4.7 miljardi eest enamuse East Resources Inc'st, mis tegutseb just Marcelluses ja Eagle Fordis. See tehing peaks päris hästi näitama, et Chesapeake'i poolt plaanitavale 20%lise osaluse müügile Marcelluses peaks ostjaid leiduma ning et Chesapeake'i plaani oma võlakoormat vähendada saadab edu.

    Link Bloombergi loole.
  • Morgan Stanley hinnangul on mitmeid põhjuseid, miks täna ei ole olukord aktsiaturgudel Euroopa kasvavate võlaprobleemide pärast võrreldav 2008. aastaga, millele järgnes totaalne paanika.

    1. Global economic growth is recovering, especially in Asia/EM and the US.
    2. Recent events are likely to delay any efforts to reduce monetary stimulus/hike base rates.
    3. The financial system is more robust now given banks’ balance sheets are stronger.
    4. The oil price is sub $70 today versus $130 two years ago.

    Küsitavad põhjused, aga MS igal juhul tõstab Suurbritannia FTSE 100 indeksi 2010. a lõpu prognoosi 5800 punkti peale. Varasem ootus oli 5000 punkti (hetkel kaupleb FTSE100 +0.6% @ 5225).

    Morgan Stanley strateeg G. Secker ütleb analüüsis ka huvitavalt, et hetkel on aktsiate liikumisi hea aasta lõikes prognoosida..... Pigem tundub küll, et teadmatus praegu väga suur - kui ikka riigivõla probleemid peaks suuremaks paisuma ja kanduvad ka UKsse (v halvemal juhul USAsse), siis ei saa kindlasti väga teravat korrektsiooni välistada.  

  • Hetkel võib isegi toimida mingi tagurpidi loogika. Kui riikide võlg on kaotamas turvalise rahapaigutuse imagot ja karta on tavapärasest kõrgemat inflatsiooni siis võib märkimisväärne osa rahast otsida kogu selle jama vastu kaitset aktsiates. Nii kummaline kui see ka pole.
  • Sissetulekud vastavalt ootustele, kulutused alla ootuste. Ameeriklased õpivad säästmist.

    April PCE Prices-Core m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% consensus, prior +0.1%
    April Personal Spending 0.0% vs +0.3% consensus, prior +0.6%
    April Personal Income +0.4% vs +0.4% consensus, prior revised to +0.4% from +0.3%
  • USA indeksite futuurid indikeerivad päeva algust eilsete sulgumistasemete juures.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +0.08%
    Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.14%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 +0.31%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.02%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0.28%
    Venemaa MICEX -0.29%
    Poola WIG +0.61%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.28%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.73%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.01%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.63%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.21%
    Tai Set 50 N/A (börs suletud)
    India Sensex 30 +1.18%

  • A Bounce Doesn't Mean the Trouble Is Over
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/28/2010 8:36 AM EDT

    The best way to pay for a lovely moment is to enjoy it.

    -- Richard Bach

    On Thursday, the market enjoyed one of its best days of the past year. After four straight days of quickly reversing the opening move, we had "gap and go" action. The gains were big and breadth strong, but volume was mediocre, and many bears were quick to dismiss the action as end-of-the-month window-dressing.

    The action was a particularly good illustration of the tendency for the biggest rallies to occur when the market is correcting or in a bear market. If you look at the history of the days of the biggest percentage gains, almost all of them come when the market is in a downtrend. Late 2008 is a particularly good example.

    The reason for the big, sudden spikes in downtrends is that market players are out of position and they all rush at once to cover shorts and add long exposure. They end up chasing as they worry that the market is making a major turn and that they will left out.

    Typically, markets don't bottom on big days like yesterday. Bottoms tend to come with a whimper as market players are worn out and give up out of disgust. The bottom in March 2009 is a good example of that type of behavior. There was no big acceleration in volume as we turned and nothing that clearly indicated that a major bottom had been formed.

    The bottom in March 2009 was the first in a long line of V-shaped bounces in the market. Technicians generally do not expect the market to go straight back up after it breaks down, because normally there is overhead resistance which slows down the upside progress. For some reason, that has not been the case in this market for quite a while. Perhaps it has been caused by the high level of liquidity looking for a place to go, or maybe it's a function of the increase in computerized trading that has occurred in the last few years.

    Whatever the reason has been for the V-shaped moves, we can't help but consider the possibility we have another one under way. The correction this time has been the deepest since the bottom in March 2009, and that means that it is going to take much more effort to go straight back up. In additional to lots of overhead resistance, we have negative summer seasonality kicking in, but the big negative is that we are now dealing with a major fundamental change: the sovereign debt issue in Europe.

    Many market players struggled with the big rally as they were unable to reconcile their negative view of the economic recovery with the extremely buoyant market action. There was a big disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street.

    Lately it seems that the market is now reflecting those worries. Bad news has had a negative impact and has not been easily overcome. That is a major change in character and one we need to watch closely as we determine whether we can trust in the upside.

    Typically, the Friday in front of a long weekend sees light trading but an upbeat mood. The bears often stand aside and let the bulls do as they please for the day. It is also the last day of the month, and that can add to the volatility.

    Technically, the market is right at the key level of 1100 on the S&P 500. The positive open this morning should take us through that level, but there are plenty of hurdles as recent buyers who were underwater make it back to even.

    I'm giving the bulls more room to the upside here, but next week we'll have to be watching much more closely for weakness in the bounce. The biggest mistake the bears have made for over a year has been to be too quick to bet against a bounce. Market players are very aware of the tendency toward V-shaped bounces and will make it a self-fulfilling prophecy to some degree. Enjoy the bounce and the holiday trading today, but let's not be too comfortable with the idea that the correction is over.
    -----------------------------------
    Briefing.com vahendusel:
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OVTI +10.3%, JCG +6.1%.

    Other news: HEV +15.2% (confirmed battery systems joint Venture with Wanxiang, "largest Auto parts supplier to the Chinese car industry"), MENT +7.7% (Icahn disclosed 6.9% stake after the close last night, co reported earnings below expectations this morning), VVUS +2.7% (Phase 3 data on VIVUS' Avanafil for erectile dysfunction to be featured at the AUA 2010 annual meeting), VOD +1.7% (UK launch of iPad begins today), NLY +2.5% (positive Cramer comments), AAPL +1.2% (positive Cramer comments; International launch of iPad drawing attention), GS +0.7% (multiple reports out this morning suggest GS is looking to avoid the SEC fraud charge by reaching a settlement on a lesser offense and paying a fine).

    Analyst comments: IRE +3.6% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), SEED +6.3% (hearing upgraded at Chardan), TTWO +4.3% (upgraded to Buy at ThinkEquity)

    Allapoole avanevad:

    BCSI -17.7%, GES -5.7%, BP -3.3%, DB -2.3%, PUK -1.6%, MON -1.1%, MT -0.9%.
  • Cynic, miks sa sellist loogikat "tagurpidi loogikaks" pead?
  • Energiasektori aktsiad saavad täna peksa, kuna USA ametnikud on üha tõsisemalt suhtumas Mehhiko lahe naftareostusesse ning on juba kehtestanud oma vetes puuritavatele naftaplatvormidele erinevaid piiranguid. Valusalt on see mõjunud ka naftateenindusettevõtetele nagu Weatherford (WFT), Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL) ja Baker Hughes (BHI). Neist väikseima exposure'iga Mehhiko lahele on Weatherford.
  • Mõmm, mulle tundub lihtsalt, et tavaliselt nii ei mõelda. Minu arvates oli väga ilus näide see kui natukene aega tagasi osteti paaniliselt bundi ja pressiti selle yield ülimadalale tasemele. Põhjuseks see, et eurotsoonis on asjad peetis ja saksa maksumaksja hakkab kogu pulli kinni maksma.
  • Chicago PMI ja Michigani indeks vastavalt ootustele:

    May University of Michigan Sentiment- revised 73.6 vs 73.2 consensus, prelim 73.3
    May Chicago PMI 59.7 vs 60.0 consensus, April 63.8
  • Kuulsate ja ilusate broker Kenneth Starr üritas Ponzie skeemiga natuke teenida. Võimalikud kannatajad mh Stallone, Scorsese, Al Pacino, Wesly Snipes, Uma Thurman jt.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/fbi-found-broker-to-the-stars-kenneth-starr-hiding-in-his-closet-2010-5/a>
    http://www.businessinsider.com/kenneth-starr-ponzi-celebrities-2010-5#uma-thurman-1/a>
  • Fitch annab Hispaania reitingule downgrade'i ja turg tõmbab nina alla selle peale.
  • FITCH downgrades spain from AAA to AA+

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