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Börsipäev 7. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kuigi eile päeva lõpus tiriti USA indeksid pärast tugevat sessiooni algust hetkeks isegi miinusesse, siis joon tõmmati alla siiski kerge plussiga. Teenuste ISM indeksi näidu allajäämine ootustele on aga Aasia sentimenti veidi enam rikkumas ning indeksid kauplevad valdavalt punases. Ka USA futuurid liiguvad hetkel 0,2% kuni 0,3% miinuses.
    Ühendriikidest täna olulisi makrouudiseid tulemas pole. Euroopas seevastu hoitakse radaril Saksamaa maikuu tehaste tellimuste arvu (kl 13.00) ja eurotsooni esimese kvartali lõplikku SKT numbrit .
  • Bank of America on nüüd kääridega läinud USA 2010. ja 2011. aasta SKP prognooside kallale ning langetanud need vastavalt +3,2% pealt +3,0% peale ning +3,3% pealt +2,6% peale. Seega võib öelda, et tegu on päris korraliku langetusega. BofA usub, et pärast 2. kvartali tulemustehooaega on analüüsimajad siiski sunnitud kärpima 2011. aasta liiga kõrgeid kasumiprognoose. Praegune konsensus 2010. aasta EPSi osas on ca $80-$82 ning see oootus peaks BofA sõnul ka pärast Q2 tulemustehooaega paika jääma. 2011. aasta konsensus on hetkel ca $96, kuid see peaks BofA sõnul siis alla tulema kuskile ca $90-$92 juurde. Tuletame meelde, et Goldman Sachsi 2010. ja 2011. aasta EPSi ootus S&P500 indeksile on vastavalt $78 ja $93. Samas oleksid ka need EPSi numbrid piisavad, et aktsiaturgudel kõrgemaid hinnatasemeid õigustada.
  • eurotsooni esimese kvartali SKT kasvuna kinnitati varasemalt teatatud numbrid ehk +0,2% QoQ ja +0,6% YoY
  • UBS ka prognooside kallal:

    Cut 2010/2011 S&P EPS $87/97 to $84/$91

    „ U.S. GDP Estimate Reduced
    We cut our H2 2010 and 2011 estimates by ~6% because UBS economists cut U.S.
    real GDP growth expectation by 50 bps for Q2, Q3, and Q4 2010; they forecast
    2.5% growth in H2 2010 & 3% in 2011. Also, a global survey of UBS analysts
    turned more bearish, the June ISM Mfg was weak, and the UBS global growth
    surprise index turned down.
  • Saksa tehaste tellimuste maht kahanes mais esimest korda viimase viie kuu jooksul (-0.5%), valmistades pettumuse analüütikutele, kes olid oodanud 0,3%list MoM kasvu. Mõnevõrra kompenseerib allajäämist see, et aprillikuu kasvu korrigeeriti 2,8%lt 2,3%le. Euro, mis on terve päeva vaikselt madalamale tiksunud, kompis statistika peale päeva põhjasid.

  • See, et IPOde järel aktsiad alla pakkumishinna kukuvad, ei ole midagi uut. Hea näide on eelmisel nädalal kauplemist suure ralliga alustanud Tesla (TSLA) aktsia, mis on tagasi 17 dollarist madalamal (Tesla toodab elektriautosid ja kasumit ei teeni, mis tähendab, et pikaajalistel investoritel ilmselt üleliia huvi aktsia vastu ei teki)

  • Dahlman oli enne tänast Alcoa (AA) 12. juulil avalikustatavate tulemuste osas võrreldes turuga optimistlikum, kuid täna ollakse oma ootusi langetamas ja nüüd ollakse oma ootustega alla turgu. Väike lõik siia Briefingu vahendusel:

    Dahlman Rose lowers Q2 EPS est below consensus ahead of report on Monday (10.21). Dahlman Rose is lowering their Q2 EPS est to $0.10 from $0.15 vs the $0.13 consensus based upon a lower aluminum price realization during the 2Q10, with a 15 day lag, averaging $0.97 per pound vs. their estimate of $1.00. They remain optimistic over the medium- to long-term that aluminum prices will trend higher, but over the near-term, economic uncertainty may present a headwind. They maintain their Hold rating.
  • 20. juulil majandustulemused avaldava Apple (AAPL) hinnasihti tõstis täna Gleacher & Compay. Nii-öelda "targetiks" määrati $370, mis on ca 50% eilsest sulgemishinnast kõrgem.

    Briefing.com vahendusel:

    Gleacher notes that it expects to see EPS upside in the June 2010 quarter and conservative guidance for September '10. Firm is pushing out 1 mln iPhones from the June to the Sept qtr due to product transition issues (obsolete phones) and iPhone 4 supply constraints. This push-out is purely an issue of timing and firm is actually raising its CY11E by 4% to $18.50. Firm believes the following are accurate "over/under" ests on the following key unit metrics for the June Q: iPhones 

  • Siin on näha, kuid viimastel nädalatel on analüüsimajad hakanud tegema rohkem soovituste langetamisi kui tõstmisi: 

  • Soovituste langetamine tundub olevat hea märk, et varsti võiks ostma hakata.
  • Fuel-Tech (FTEK) peaks nüüd hakkama rohkem positiivset tähelepanu saama, kuna EPA on lõpuks ometi väljas kaua oodatud osariikide vahelise puhta õhu regulatsiooniga. Brean Murray on seda täna kenasti ka rõhutamas ja ütleb, et ootab aktsialt järgnevatel nädalatel ja kuudel võrreldes turuga tugevust. Fuel-Techi (FTEK) oleme ka Maailma Pro all tutvustanud ning huvilistel võimalik seda meelde tuletada siin - link. 

    EPA finally issues long-awaited new clean air interstate rule - Brean Murray (5.85)Brean Murray notes, yesterday, the EPA proposed a revised version of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), now called the Interstate Transport Rule. Overall, firm believes the newly proposed rule should ultimately generate increased order flow for FTEK. However, it would describe this as a nice positive, but not a home run. Firm doesn't love the cap-trade approach, and the implementation of stricter NOx and SO2 regulations comes about six months after it was anticipating. Yet, with this uncertainty removed, firm would expect FTEK to outperform the market over the coming weeks and months. 

  • Kuigi terve hommikupooliku on USA futuurid olnud pigem miinuspoolel, siis pool tundi enne börsi avanemist on jõutud eilse sulgumistaseme juurde.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX -0,50%
    Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -0,65%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0,59%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1,19%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0,18%
    Venemaa MICEX -1,74%
    Poola WIG -0,92%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,63%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1,13%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,48%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,99%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,21%
    Tai Set 50 -0,36%
    India Sensex 30 -0,81%

  • Playing Defense
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/7/2010 8:19 AM EDT

    The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds.

    -- Will Durant

    After trending straight down for two weeks, we finally managed a bounce on Monday, but it was not very impressive. Overseas markets were strong, and we had very oversold technical conditions, but after a decent gap up to start the week, the buyers had little energy.

    The most impressive aspect of this market, as we rallied off the low in March 2009, had been the very vigorous bounces. We barely pulled back at all during the uptrend, but the bounces were amazingly strong. Not only did we bounce quickly, but once we started, we just kept on going straight up. Shorts were squeezed and underinvested bulls would scramble to add long exposure.

    Since the end of April, this aspect of the market has changed dramatically. We have had three bounce attempts, and each has failed at obvious technical levels. The most recent failed bounce has turned into two weeks of selling and has taken us to new lows.

    Although almost everyone agrees that we are oversold and due for a bounce, we have been unable to get anything going. Yesterday, it looked like we had the opportunity for one of those old fashioned "gap-and-run" days, but we ended up down-trending most of the day instead.

    Part of the problem may be that we have too many people looking for that oversold bounce. Too many folks are hoping to be bailed out by a rally, and that is making it hard for one to take hold. As soon as we have a bounce of any size, the over-eager flippers take their gain, and that kills any fledging momentum we may have had.

    The bulls are going to be very anxious to give it another try, and we have quiet action and not much news flow, which may be a better setup than a big gap up to start the day. What we have to watch for are all those short-term traders who are looking to pile in the moment it looks like we finally have a decent bounce kicking in. They aren't likely to stick around for long, but they don't want to miss out on the bounce party once we finally have one started.

    The most important thing, as we obsess over the possibility of a bounce, is to not lose sight of the big picture. We are firmly in the grips of an ugly downtrend, and there is no reason to believe that we are going to pull off one of those V-ish bounces that served us so well during our recent uptrend. Conditions have changed, and not only is sentiment different, but technical overhead is quite meaningful.

    The bulls' best hope for a change in the current trend will come during second-quarter earnings season, which kicks off with Alcoa on July 12. The last couple of months have priced in some lower expectations, which will be helpful, but we'll have to see what the mood is as the numbers roll out.

    I believe the biggest problem for the market now is that the flood of liquidity from bailouts and stimulus programs has dried up and is no longer driving us like it did last year. Until there is evidence, in the form of a change in the market trend, that money is coming into the market, we'll need to stay cautious. This is the time to stay focused on defense and not the time to start trying to call turning points. We are going to continue to hear about why the worst is over and how things are going to turn up, but make this market prove it before you start buying those predictions.
    -----------------------------------
    Briefing.com vahendusel:
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: STT +4.3% (sees prelim Q2 operating earnings above consensus; revs in-line).

    Other news: NLST +19.0% (announces DELL has qualified both its 512 megabyte and 1 gigabyte flash memory-based, non-volatile cache subsystems), SIRI +4.5% (adds 583,249 net subscribers in Q2 vs 186K in 2Q09; raises subscriber guidance, sees net adds of ~1.1 mln), CHBT +4.4% (announces $20 mln stock buyback), ZANE +2.2% (announced that Q2 was a record quarter for the firm with respect to the rate of contracts closed in a quarterly period), LCC +2.2% (reports June load factor of 86.9%), BP +2.2% (news stories report CEO Hayward met with Abu Dhabi state fund today, raising speculation that the company is open to a sizeable investment from a sovereign wealth fund), BK +1.5% (higher on heels of upside guidance from peer STT).

    Analyst comments: VRSN +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FCN -16.3%, CRH -7.2%, FDO -5.1%.

    Other news: DPTR -11.0% (appoints Carl Lakey CEO; announces that it has terminated JV discussions with Opon), BEAT -5.7% (United Healthcare is maintaining its position that "outpatient cardiovascular telemetry is unproven for managing cardiac arrhythmias"), EQIX -3.3% (still checking for any news), NGD -3.2% (on July 7 the Fifth Auxiliary District Court in Mexico City denied its appeal against the Sept 2009 ruling).

    Analyst comments: CTRP -2.9% (downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray).
  • Google (GOOG) tgt cut to $566 from $639 at JP Morgan
  • Huvitav kas põhilistele negatiivsetele uudistele on nüüd praeguseks ära reageeritud (ülereageeritud)???
  • Vähese ajaga liiga kiire kukkumine (ülemüük). Tõenäoliselt pressitakse S&P 500 indeks lähiajal ka alla 1000 punkti ja eks siis ole juba näha, mis edasi saab. Hetkel võiks seda tõusu kergendusralliks pidada ning tõus võiks jõuda 1070 punkti kanti.
  • Uhh s&p 1060! Pakun et selle kuu põhi tehtud!
    Lemmingud jõudsid samuti järeldusele,et aktsiad on odavad :)
  • eks homme ülehomme ole jälle paanika :)

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