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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 13. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Vaatamata alumiiniumi hinna langusele, suutis Alcoa tänu suurematele mahtudele lüüa analüütikute ootusi nii käibe kui müügitulu osas, millele lisaks tõsteti käesoleva aasta globaalset alumiiniumi tarbimise prognoosi 10%lt 12%. Seega alustas Alcoa tulemustehooaega võrdlemisi positiivse noodiga, näidates et vähemalt reaalmajandusest aasta teises pooles suuremaid riske ettevõtte tulemustele ei oodata.

    Alcoa aktsia kauples järelturul 3,5% kõrgemal, vedades kõrgemale ka indeksite futuure. Praeguseks on aga S&P 500 futuur eilsest sulgumistasemest -0,2% madalamal, valdavalt tänu meeleolule Aasias, kus Hiina valitsus otsustas kindlaks jääda varasematele regulatsioonidele, mille eesmärgiks on vähendada spekuleerimist kinnisvaraturul. Kinnisvaraarendajate eestvedamisel on CSI 300 kauplemas 1,8% punases.

  • Lisaks Alcoale (AA) suutis müügitulu- ja kasumiootusi ületada ka CSX Corp (CSX) ja Novellus (NVLS). Aktsiad kauplesid järelturul vastavalt 0,4% ja 2% kõrgemal. Tulemustetabelit hakkame ettevõtete poolt raporteeritavate numbritega uuendama igapäevaselt ning esimesed sissekanded juba tehtud. Link tabelile siin. 

  • Euroopa indeksite futuurid indikeerimas hetkel avanemist 0,1% kõrgemal võrreldes eilse sulgumistasemega. Makromajanduse näitajatest langeb põhitähelepanu Saksamaa ZEW majandussentimenti juulikuu näitajale, mis konsensuse arvates näitab Euroopa pankade stressitesti eel tõenäoliselt langust kolmandat kuud järjest. USA-s on laual kaubandusbilansi statistika kell 15.30 ja riigieelarve juunikuu raport kell 21.00. Järelturul aga oodatakse Inteli teise kvartali majandustulemusi.
  • Eurol, USA futuuridel ja Euroopa indeksitel kadus hetkeks jalgealune, kui Moody's pool tundi tagasi Portugali reitingut kahe pügala võrra kärpis. Praeguseks teeb DAX juba uusi päeva tippe (+0.7%), olles vahepeal käinud ära nullis.

    EUR/USD

     

  • Teise kvartali tulemustehooaeg on ka Balti börsidel kohe algamas. LHV prognoose koos kommentaaridega meie poolt kaetavate ettevõtete kohta saab Pro alt lugeda siit
  • Moody's alandas Portugali reitingut kahe pügala võrra A1 peale. Moody'se esindaja sõnul peab Portugal võtma 2011. aasta eelarve koostamisel kasutusele suuremaid kokkuhoiuprogramme, et vältida edasist reitingu langetamist. Lähima 12 kuu vältel ei hakata Portugali reitingut üle vaatama.

  • Tore firma Moodys tekitab jälle investeerimsvõimalusi.
    Huvitav, mis Portu asjadest on usas listitud? Midagi suurt ja rahvusvahelist?
    Mikhiired müüvad selle kohe läbi põranda.
  • Sakslased on oma majanduskeskkonna kuue kuu väljavaadete hindamisel järjest pessimistlikumad, seevastu näib, et  tugevad ekspordi ja tööstustoodangu numbrid on lisanud oluliselt kindlust juurde hetkeseisu hindamisel. Kui juulikuu ZEW ootuste indeks kukkus 28,7 punktilt 21,2 punktile (oodati 25,3), siis jooksvat olukorda hindav indeks paranes -7,9 punktilt 14,6 punktile (oodati -1,2). Esimese hooga reageeriti makrole negatiivselt, kuid nüüd teeb Euroopa juba uusi päeva tippe. Euro on samuti kosumas päeva põhjadest.

  • Kreeka müüs täna €1,625 miljardi eest 26-nädalasi 4,65% tulususega võlakirjasid (aprillis 4,55%). Nõudluse-pakkumise suhe 3,64 (aprillis 7,67).

  • Natuke kummaline, et Kreeka läheb rahvusvaheliselt turgudelt selliseid summasid kokku korjama, olles alles mõni kuu tagasi saanud Euroopa Liidult ja IMF'i 110 mld EUR laenu. Turgude testimine? Üritatakse vaikselt leida usaldust ja saada finantsvahendeid odavamalt kui pakuvad seda IMF ja EL 5% juures?
  • "Kui antakse siis tuleb võtta!" mõtleb kreeklane!
  • EL-i nõukogu kinnitas täna euro käibelevõtu Eestis 1. jaanuarist 2011, kursiks 15,6466 krooni euro eest.
  • Briefing.com vahendusel:
    May Trade Balance -$42.3bln vs -$39.4 bln Briefing.com consensus, April -$40.3 bln
  • Kreeka oktsioni taustast.

    The auction's primary aim was to maintain the benchmark reference for collaterals, especially for domestic banks, considered as main buyers of short-term Greek debt. But it also provided a buying opportunity for yield-hunters who don't expect Greece to default in the next couple of months. However, as Greek are the main buyers of Greek T-bills, the auction couldn't serve as a proper measure of international investor confidence.

    "It is not a sign of recovery of market confidence on Greece as the T-bill market is completely different from government bonds," said Giuseppe Maraffino, strategist at Barclays Capital in London. While the Greek T-bill market is dominated by domestic banks, the government bond market is dominated by international investors.
  • Aasia hommikune nõrkus on nüüdseks unustatud ning USA turu avanemise eel on indeksite futuurid ca 1% jagu plusspoolel kauplemas.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +1,72%
    Pantsusmaa CAC 40 +1,84%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 +1,93%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1,69%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +2,65%
    Venemaa MICEX +1,97%
    Poola WIG +0,87%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,11%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0,18%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1,63%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1,13%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,22%
    Tai Set 50 -0,33%
    India Sensex 30 +0,27%

  • Surging Into Intel
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/13/2010 8:16 AM EDT

    If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?
    -- Vince Lombardi

    We are set to open strongly this morning as optimism about earnings season is building. The first few earnings reports from Alcoa (AA) , Novellus (NVLS) and CSX Corp. (CSX) were solid, but we also have a boost from BP (BP) , which made some progress with the Gulf of Mexico oil leak. Banks led the action overseas and mining and commodities are bouncing back after poor action yesterday. A downgrade of sovereign debt of Portugal is having no immediate impact.

    Following this upbeat open, the market's focus is going to very quickly shift to the key report due out after the close -- Intel (INTC) . Intel's earnings report has often marked a turning point in the market, so it is going to be very carefully scrutinized.

    The last two quarters, Intel gapped up on very good earnings but reversed quickly and went straight down for weeks. A big Intel report back in the second quarter of 2009 helped to propel the market to an exceptional rally during the month of July after a near breakdown.

    The big difference in the July 2009 quarter from the last two quarters was that the market was not trending up or near a recent high. When the market is hitting short-term highs, there is much greater risk that Intel's report will be a turning point.

    With the gap-up open this morning, the market is looking at its sixth successive day of gains, adding some danger of a "sell the news" reaction to earnings. We also are moving closer to that significant resistance around 1100 of the S&P 500, but at the moment this is looking like some of that good old-fashioned "V"-ish action that drove this market from March 2009 to April 2010.

    It is extremely easy to find fault with the bounce we are presently enjoying. It has come on low volume and poor breadth, and technical overhead is looming. On the other hand, the market has often continued to rally without pause during the past year when similar conditions existed. We are at that point now where bears and underinvested bulls become extremely anxious as the market continues upward without providing good entry points. The longer it continues, the greater the underlying buying pressures build.

    The opening strength is fading just a little as I write, and I wouldn't be surprised to see us calm down more as we await Intel. Shorting on the INTC report was a winning trade the last two quarters, and many market players will be considering that as the numbers hit tonight.

    We are at a very tricky juncture right now, so buckle up and adjust your trading helmet -- the action is going to heat up.
    -----------------------------------
    Briefing.com vahendusel:
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AA +3.5%, BRKS +3.4% (light volume), NVLS +2.0%, CSX +1.4%, CVX +1.2%.

    Select financial related names showing strength: C +2.2%, HBAN +2.0%, HBC +1.9%, LYG +1.6%, SNV +1.5%, ING +1.2%, RF +1.1%... WFC +1.1%, JPM +1.1%, GS +0.8% and MS +1.2% (initiated with Positives at Susquehanna), .

    Select metals/mining related stocks trading higher boosted by AA results: CENX +4.3%, TCK +2.2%, BBL +2.1%, RTP +2.1%, ACH +2.1%, AKS +1.6%, FCX +1.5%, X +1.4%, BHP +1.3%, MT +1.0%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: ESV +2.4% (Greenlight Capital discloses 5.2% stake in 13G filing), BP +2.3% (announces capping stack was installed on M252 well), APC +1.8%, CHK +1.7%, TOT +1.2%.

    Select mortgage/insurer related names getting boost: RDN +9.0%, MBI +6.6% (Fairholme Funds files 13-g announcing an 11.1% stake ), PMI +3.6%, ABK +3.1%, GNW +2.4%.

    Other news: VVUS +30.5% (FDA releases VVUS briefing documents), RZ +15.7% (announces agreement and substantial payment of Thermo No. 1 debt obligations), OREX +10.6% and ARNA +8.2% (up in sympathy with VVUS), THLD +9.8% (TH-302 enhances efficacy of two antiangiogenic agents and, in a separate study, demonstrates selectivity in pancreatic cancer by targeting a distinct tumor compartment from that of Gemcitabine), S +3.8% (still checking), ERIC +3.3% (checking for anything specific), FBC +3.2% (successfully regains compliance with NYSE minimum share price listing requirement), GSK +1.3% (FDA Panel to meet on GSK's Avandia today and tomorrow; may cause volatility in stock as headlines cross), RIMM +1.3% (announces TSX approval for common share repurchase program), BIDU +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: UN +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; added to Conviction Buy list), BTI +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CVLT -23.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), AMED -14.3% (also downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital), ID -4.1% , INFY -4.0%.

    Select healthcare facility related names trading lower following AMED guidance: AFAM -6.0%, LHCG -5.7% .

    Other news: REVU -9.2% (still checking), BMTI -7.0% (announces 5 mln common stock offering), SQNM -2.0% (still checking), GGP -1.5% (files plan of reorganization and disclosure statement), .

    Analyst comments: ATPG -6.8% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), URBN -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), ANN -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).
  • Viimasepeal börsi ilm :) Kas keegi teab miks RIG nii kolinal alla tuli?
  • pandakaru1, ilmselt on tegemist puurimiskeelu pikendamisega.

    Briefing.com vahendusel:

    "Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar today directed the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEM) to issue new suspensions of deepwater drilling on the Outer Continental Shelf, saying a pause is needed to ensure that oil and gas companies first implement adequate safety measures to reduce the risks associated with deepwater drilling operations and are prepared for blowouts and oil spills. Shallow water drilling activities that use different technologies do not present the same type or level of risks as deepwater drilling operations and can continue to move forward if operators are in compliance with all safety and environmental requirements, including new safety and environmental requirements implemented through recent Notices to Lessees. Production activities in federal waters of the Gulf are not affected by the deepwater drilling suspensions.The new suspensions apply to drilling operations that use subsea blowout preventers (BOP) or surface BOPs on floating facilities."

  • Tänud Kristjan.
    Ise lootsin, et see veel lähipäevil mõju ei avalda.
  • IMAX network expansion continues- Brigantine
    Birgantine notes Imax shares are down nearly 40% off their highs and trading around pre-Avatar levels. Firm says the sharp decline in the stock can be traced to investor disappointment with the company's share of total box office over the last couple of releases, including most recently, Twilight:Eclipse. FIrm says while it is true that Imax's share of the overall box office has been less than we anticipated, the company's build-out of its international network is ahead of their expectations.
  • 21 bln 10-year Notes Auction Results: Yield 3.119% (expected 3.109%); Bid/Cover 3.09x (Prior 3.24x, 12-auction avg 2.98x); Indrect Bidders 41.7% (Prior 40.2%, 12-auction avg 41.4%)
  • June Treasury Budget -68.4Bln vs -$70.0 bln Briefing.com consensus, prior year -$94.3 bln
  • Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) Jul 35 puts (volume: 27.2K, open int: 2090, implied vol: ~60%, prev day implied vol: 53%)
  • EUR/USD kauplemas pealpool $1.27 taset. Kui siin päev ka lõpetatakse, siis viimati sulguti kõrgemal kui $1.27 11-ndal mail. Tõenäoliselt liigtakse, siis ka pealpoole $1.30 taset.
  • Vivus (VVUS) target raised to $18 from $15 at Brean Murray following briefing documents; firm concludes that Qnexa will be recommended for approval given the extent of obesity in the U.S.
  • Inteli tulemused on pärs tugevad ja pakuvad vähemalt homme kindlasti turule, eriti tehnoloogiale ja PC-sektorile tuge. Olen järelturul ostnud MU ja STX, kuna nii kõvaketaste kui DRAM puhul on kardetud, et tootmine on kasvanud-kasvamas suuremaks kui nõudlus ja et ülepakkumine seab nii müügihinnad ja marginaalid surve alla. MU küll on tulemused alles hiljuti avaldanud, kuid nende juures oli pühimureks ikkagi järgmine kvartal.. ja Inteli tulemused näitavad, et nõudluse üle väga kurta ei saa. STX kaupleb pealiskaudsel vaatamisel suhteliselt soodsa valuatsiooni juures, põhimure see, et praegused kasumid on ajutine nähtus ja ilmselt saab see mure vähemalt lühiajaliselt mõningast leevendust.
    Tõenäoliselt on aga ka ülejäänud aktsiad siit veel ost:
    AMD (endale tegelikult väga ei meeldi, liiga palju juba üles läinud järelturul)
    NVDA
    WDC
    MSFT

    Võimalik, et ka semi capex ettevõtted.. paistab, et Intel tõstis natuke ka selle aasta capexi ootusi.. + semiconil on suhteliselt positiivsed vist oldud: KLAC, AMAT, LRCX jne. Vajaks ilmselt natuke täpsemat uurimist, kes võiksid suurimad kasusaajad olla.

    Ainuke nõrgem regioon paistis Intelil olevat Euroopa, nii et kodutööna võiks välja uurida, kellel kõige kõrgem Euroopa osakaal :)

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