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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 31. detsember

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Head vana-aasta lõppu kõigile! Aitäh teile, et olete olnud meie foorumite lugejad, kaasamõtlejad ja sõnavõtjad. Uueks aastaks on mul LHV kasutajatele, klientidele, foorumite ja seminaride külastajatele, kõigile investoritele ja hea sõnaga LHVd meeles pidavatele inimestele ainult head ja väga head soovid!

    Nagu eile ütlesin, siis Balti turgudel täna kauplemist ei toimu. USA aktsiaturg on avatud - eelturul on S&P500 indeksi futuur liikumas eilse sulgumistaseme juures, euro on dollari vastu pisut üle poole protsendi plussis ja jõudnud tasemele €1=$1.336.
  • Head vana aasta lõppu kõigile ka minu poolt!

    Viimasele 12 kuule tagasi vaadates võib tõdeda, et tegemist oli investorite jaoks üsna keerulise ja närvekõditava perioodiga. Pärast 2009. aasta võimsat rallit püsis lootus, et 2010 võiks tõus jätkuda, kuid iga kuuga süvenes skepsis selle realiseerumises. Ärevus kasvas juba mullu novembris-detsembris, kui reitinguagentuurid Kreeka võlale junk staatuse andsid. Kevadel süvenenud võlakriis Euroopas, flash crash USA turgudel ning majandusnäitajate nõrgenemine  sundisid investoreid järjekordse majanduslanguse hirmus kaitset otsima võlakirjaturgudelt. Kuid FED-i täiendav stiimulpakett ning uuesti paranema hakanud makromajandus sütitasid teise poolaasta ralli, tänu millele on S&P500 lõpetamas aastat klassikalise 12%lise tootlusega, eurodes mõõdetuna aga sulgumas tervenisti +22% kõrgemal.  

  • Meeldetuletuseks olgu veel öeldud, et LHV kliendikontorid on täna avatud kella 15.00-ni ning USA turul on investeerimiskonto kaudu võimalik tehinguid teha 16.30-20.00 (Trader kontol saab kaubelda kogu lahtioleku aja jooksul). Rahakanded toimuvad tavapärasel ajal

  • Boston.com Big Picture on pannud kokku pildikollektsiooni, mis pakub võimalust meenutada natuke 2010. aasta sündmusi. OSA 1  OSA 2   OSA 3
  • Aasta viimane nädal on muutnud USA väikeinvestorid aktsiaturgude järgneva kuue kuue väljavaadete osas varasemast pisut karusemaks, kuigi bullish sentiment jääb endiselt ajalooliselt väga kõrgele tasemele. Investorite osakaal, kes usuvad järgneva poole aasta tõusu, vähenes nädalaga 11.7 protsendipunkti 51,6% peale. Karude osakaal aga suurenes 3,6 protsendipunkti võrra 20,1% peale.

  • Eilses WSJs ilmus artikkel Peter Schiff'i sulest, kes kirjutab, et USA kodude hinnad on endiselt liiga kõrged ja peaksid langema veel 20%, et jõuda ajaloolise trendijooneni.

    By all accounts, the home price boom that began in January 1998, when the previous 1989 peak was finally surpassed, and topped out in June 2006 was extraordinary. The 173% gain in the Case-Shiller 10-City Index (the only monthly data metric that predates the year 2000) in those nine years averaged an eye-popping 19.2% per year. As we know now, those gains had very little to do with market fundamentals, and everything to do with distortionary government policies that set off a national mania for real-estate wealth and a torrent of temporarily easy credit.

    From my perspective, homes are still overvalued not just because of these long-term price trends, but from a sober analysis of the current economy. The country is overly indebted, savings-depleted and underemployed. Without government guarantees no private lenders would be active in the mortgage market, and without ridiculously low interest rates from the Federal Reserve any available credit would cost home buyers much more. These are not conditions that inspire confidence for a recovery in prices.

    In trying to maintain artificial prices, government policies are keeping new buyers from entering the market, exposing taxpayers to untold trillions in liabilities and delaying a real recovery. We should recognize this reality and not pin our hopes on a return to price normalcy that never was that normal to begin with.

     

  • Eurole üleminek toob ka mõningaid tõrkeid internetipanga töös: LHV Pangas tehakse eurole üleminekuks vajalikud tehnilised muudatused 31. detsembri öösel vastu 1. jaanuari ajavahemikus 23.30-7.00. Sel ajal ei ole võimalik internetipanka siseneda ega pangatoiminguid teha. Üleminekule järgnevatel päevadel võib internetipanga töös esineda häireid. Täies mahus töötab internetipank jälle alates 3. jaanuari hommikust.

    Eurole ülemineku kohta lisaks.
  • Lihtsustatult: LHV leht on maas täna 23:30-st kuni homse hommiku kella 7:00-ni.
    Head aastavahetust!
  • Alloleval graafikul on kujutatud globaalsete aktsiaturgude liikumised kohalikus valuutas. Üle 130%list tootlust on tänavu näidanud Mongoolia aktsiaturg, kuigi palju ei jää maha ka Sri Lanka börs ning Eesti on tublil kolmandal kohal. Kõige punasemat otsa domineerivad aga Euroopa perifeeriariigid: Kreeka, Küpros, Hispaania. Kuid ka Hiina mahub nende sekka.

  • Bloombergis väga hea videointervjuu Howard Davidowitziga, kes räägib USA jaekaubandusest, tarbijate olukorrast ja lõpetab intervjuu vägagi karuse vaatega tulevale aastale.

  • Biglari Holdings (BH) raises offer to acquire Fremont Michigan InsuraCorp to $31 per share
    Co announced today that it has increased its proposal to acquire 100% of the issued and outstanding shares of common stock of Fremont Michigan InsuraCorp, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: FMMH.OB) to $31 per share in cash.
  • IMAX may see increased volatility in pre-market trading following a UK Daily Mail report that Sony could be interested in the company
    Hetkel esimesed tehingud ~+8% kõrgemal, $29 tasemel.
  • USA dollar on täna kukkumas kõikide peamiste valuutade vastu: AUDUSD 0,07% (1,0177); EURUSD +0,68% (1,3381); GBPUSD +0,62% (1,5521); NZDUSD +0,91% (0,7773); USDCAD -0,34% (0,9965); USDCHF -0,02% (0,93347); USDJPY -0,31% (81,26).
  • Esimene läks $36 suisa. See artikkel on paras bs, autor ei ole mitte ühtegi reaalset ülevõttu suutnud leida. Lisaks olla suurem kogus calle sel nädalal läbi käinud, eilne liikumine ei ole samuti normaalne.
  • E-House China (EJ) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies - tgt $21.50
  • YHOO +5.5% $17.69 olematu käibega.
  • CVS Caremark (CVS) ostab Universal America Medicare Part D $1.25 miljardi eest. UAM aktsionärid saavad ~$12.80-13 cash ja lisaks 1 uue ettevõtte aktsia.

  • ? Miks peaks see oluline olema. Kellegi lambieksitus. Bid/ask nullis. Miks see peaks sheerimist väärt olema?
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: XETA +2.4% (light volume).

    M&A news: IMAX +12.8% (UK Daily Mail report that Sony could be interested in the company).

    Select gold/silver related stocks ticking higher: NGD +1.5%, HL +1.4%, EXK +1.4%, SLW +1.1%, AUY +1.0%, GLD +0.6%.

    Other news: AFOP +5.8% (thinly traded; still checking), KEM +5.5% (still checking), SNN +1.7% (light volume), UAM +0.7% (to sell medicare prescription drug business to CVS Caremark), APC +0.6% (continued strength following yesterday's reports on BHP bid).

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing guidance/news: BGP -13.8% (reports out overnight that the co delayed payments to vendors while it is trying to refinance), WEST -4.3% (reaffirms over 50% sequential revenue growth in Q4; receives delisting notification).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: BBL -1.5%, BHP -1.4%, RIO -1.2%.

    Select rare earth metal related plays are pulling back: REE -5.0%, AVL -4.1%, MCP -1.9%, SHZ -1.4% (yesterday's underperforming rare earth play after soaring higher on Wed).

  • ***U.S.Treasury market will close at 2 PM ET***
  • Universal American Corp (UAM) up over 35% in premarket following news that the co is selling its medicare prescription drug business
    Hetkel +37% $20 taseml.
  • Rev Shark: 2010: A Year of Market Manipulation
    12/31/2010 8:53 AM

    "New Year's Day is every man's birthday." 

    -- Charles Lamb
    It is the last day of trading in 2010, and it seems rather fitting that the trading this week has been similar to what occurred quite often during the year. The most notable characteristic of the market this past year was how strong our rallies were once they started. We just kept on running despite an increasing number of folks looking for a market top. It seems like almost everyone is trying to guess a top again right now, but the positive seasonality is holding us right near the highs.

    Earlier this year, we had some weak action from April to August, but there were huge unrelenting uptrends from February through April and then from September to the end of the year, with one slight pullback. What was most surprising about these rallies is how persistent they were once they started. There were almost no pullbacks at all during the runs, and market players seemed to be constantly chasing in order to try to add long exposure.

    The easiest mistake for traders to make this past year has been to underestimate this market. Given the very poor economic recovery, persistent high levels of unemployment and the extreme poor real estate market, it was very easy to be pessimistic about the market prospects. What we saw on Main Street just didn't matter to Wall Street very much.

    Despite the economic woes on Main Street, many individual companies reported superb earnings this year. There was no sign at all of any major economic weakness during earnings season. Wall Street seemed to be in a totally different world than Main Street, and if you confused the two, it was very easy to find yourself exiting the market far too early as the uptrends just kept going and going.

    It wasn't only generally good earnings that contributed to the markets' resilience this year. The Fed had an ongoing quantitative easing program, which is just a fancy way of saying they ran the printing press and flooded the economy with cheap money. With interest rates practically at zero and real estate acting very poorly, that money had few places to go but into the stock market.

    Many market players have been complaining that the market no longer acts normally. Part of that is due to the increased dominance of high-frequency and computer trading, but another part of it is due to Permanent Open Market Operations of the Fed (POMO), which means that it is buying securities in the open market. There is an amazingly strong correlation between positive market days and days on which POMO takes place.

    In summary, it has been a year marked by more manipulation and outside driving forces than usual. If you were overly logical and inclined toward pessimism, you probably had some difficulty.

    At the close today, 2010 will be history, and we'll have a fresh start on Monday. The great thing about the market is that you can have a fresh start anytime you want. What happened yesterday or last week need not matter any longer. The New Year makes it especially easy to wipe the slate clean and to move forward without any of last year's baggage.

    Today is the day to prepare for the New Year, and that is going to make for some very odd trading. Many market players have already closed the books on 2010, and we are going to see the hot-money players, who are enjoying some very good holiday trading this week.

    We have some slight weakness to start the day and the rare-earth plays are pulling back, but the dollar is weaker and helping gold and commodities in the early going.

  • IMAX - selle toimimine osalt põhjendatud sellest, et see oli nii loll lugu. Hakati aktiivselt shortima siin hommikul ja asi läks squeeze. Ise ei suutnud osta ja ei julge ka shortida :)
  • IMAXiga seotud kuulujutt võimalikust eesootavast ülevõtust on nüüd küll kuidagi väga mugavalt ajastatud. Tegu on aasta viimase päevaga, siis kui turg on õhuke ja ükski ettevõte kommentaare ei jaga. Sony kodumaal Jaapanis on näiteks üldse täna rahvuspüha. Samuti on ka lühikeste aktsiate osakaal IMAXis päris suur ning keskmise käibe juures kuluks katmiseks ikkagi 3 kauplemispäeva. Just a big coincidence? Maybe... but not likely.
  • Imax Corp Follow up: More takeover chatter circulates as a report states that a boutique media investment banking firm states it can confirm that Sony is preparing to make an offer for IMAX

    - The report states that MediaTech Capital Partners believes the earlier report in the UK Daily Mail about a $40+/shr offer from Sony is accurate.
  • Palju õnne euro puhul, Eesti!

    Finance.yahoo.com Top Story 31. detsembri õhtul aastal 2010 - "Estonia enters new era with euro adoption" 

  • Tänaseks investeerimiskonto vahendusel kauplemine lõppenud, LHV Traderis on võimalik kaubelda kuni 23.00-ni (USA turgude ametliku sulgemiseni).

    Head vana-aasta lõppu kõigile!
  • Kes 2011 aktsiavaliku tegemiseks noolteviskamiseks märklauda tahab, siis siin on üks valik Top Picks 2011: Favorite Stocks from 60+ Advisors
  • Väike uudis: IMAX
    Imax Corp Disney responds to press speculation, calls report of a bid for IMAX "pure fiction" - US financial press

  • Ei ole uudis, see kukkus reedel selle peale juba katki.
  • Või noh, liikumine tuli tegelikult siiski siis, kui IMAX ise andis kommentaari. Natuke varem Disneyst. GF puhub pullikakat. See oli reedel siiski short, takeoveri riski seal väga polnud, aga squeeze ajas isu ära :)

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