LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 15. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Nagu ühe teise foorumiteema all on juba välja toodud, siis täna avalikustatud jaanuarikuu inflatsiooninumber jäi Hiinas arvatust pisemaks ning seda isegi tarbijahinnaindeksi kaalude muutmist arvesse võttes, mis vastupidiselt spekulatsioonidele marginaalselt hoopis tõstis THI näitu. Hiina statistikaameti kohaselt kallinesid hinnad jaanuaris 4,9% võrreldes mullusega vs oodatud 5,4% ja 4,6% detsembris. THI rekalkuleerimisel vähendati toidu osakaalu 32,4% pealt 30,2% peale ning kinnisvara osakaalu suurendati 15% pealt 19,2% peale. Peamiseks üllatuseks oli MoM toiduhindade tõus (+2,8%) ehk vähem kui oodati ning ühtlasi raporteeritud langus rõivaste hindades. Samas tasub märkida, et tootjahinnaindeks kerkis jaanuaris 6,6% ehk prognoositust 0,3 protsendipunkti enam.
  • Pärast mõnigast taastumist on euro täna hommikul taas müüki saamas (-0,12% @$1,3475), kuna nii Saksamaa kui Prantsusmaa esmased neljanda kvartali SKT näidud jäid oodatust veidi madalamaks. Saksamaa majandus laienes kvartali baasil 0,4% (3kv 0,7% ja 4kv prognoos 0,5%) ning Prantsusmaa vastavalt 0,3% ( 3kv 0,3% ja 4kv prognoos 0,6%)
  • Tänane makrokalender on suhteliselt tihe ning lisaks juba avaldatud datale võiks turuosaliste jaoks suuremat huvi pakkuda Rootsi keskpanga intressimääraotsus (kell 10.30), Suurbritannia jaanuarikuu inflatsiooninäit (kell 11.30), Saksamaa ZEW küsitluste tulemused ja eurotsooni neljanda kvartali SKT esmane näit (kell 12.00), USA Empire State töötleva tööstuse indeksi veebruarikuu näit ja jaanuari jaemüügi muutus (kell 15.30) ning kell 17.00 avalikustatav NAHB kinnisvarahindeks, mis annab täiendavat infot olukorra kohra USA kinnisvarasektoris.

    USA indeksite futuurid on hetkel tegemas päeva põhjasid, kaubeldes 0,15-0,2% miinuses.
  • Rootsi keskpank tõstis intressimäärasid 25 baaspunkti võrra 1,5% peale.
  • Suurbritannia jaanuari THI tuli vastavalt ootustele 0,1% (M/M) ja 4,0% (Y/Y). GBPUSD jõudis enne tulemuste avaldamist $1,6100 tasemeni, kuid on langenud hetkel $1,6050 juurde tagasi.
  • UK jaemüügi hinnaindeks 0,3% vs oodatud 0,2% (M/M) ja aastases lõikes vastavalt ootustele 5,1%.
  • Eurotsooni IV kvartali SKT 0,3% vs oodatud 0,4% (Q/Q) ja 2,0% vs oodatud 2,1% (Y/Y).
  • ZEW indeksid ka:
    Saksamaa ZEW hetkeolukorra indeks 85,2 vs oodatud 83,0 punkti;
    Saksamaa ZEW majandussentimendi indeks 15,7 vs oodatud 20,0 puntki;
    Eurotsooni ZEW majandussentimendi indeks 29,5 vs oodatud 28,5 punkti.
    Euro kauplemas hetkel 0,31% kõrgemal $1,3527 taseme juures.
  • Täna on Goldman Sachsi analüütikud väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega US Steel (X) kohta.
    Goldman Sachs tõstab X reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ja hinnasihi $61 pealt $75 peale.


    Steel stocks have leveled off on concerns that recent decline in scrap prices would be followed by steel. In our view, the current cycle has more leg than what is expected by the market. Rising global steel and pig iron prices on the back of rising input costs should provide support for the domestic prices. In addition, we expect the seasonal uptick in domestic demand, along with recent macro strength as indicated by data points like IP and ISM to bode well for steel demand. We expect utilization rate at X’s Domestic Flat Rolled mill to rise to 85% in 2011 from 76% last year.
    US Steel earnings have suffered due to weak price realization and below optimal utilization rates, both of which are turning favorable moving forward. As market’s fixation shifts from movement in scrap prices to positive trends in global steel prices and confidence in near-term steel demand improves, we believe that US Steel stock could break out of its trading range and potentially move towards our target price.


    Terase aktsiad on viimasel ajal olnud analüütikute sõnul teatava müügisurve all, kuna turuosalised pelgavad, et hinnalangus vanarauas võib viia terasehindade languseni. Goldmani analüütikute sõnul seisab praegune tsükkel aga tugevamal vundamendil, kui turg arvab.Terasehindade globaalne tõus peaks pakkuma tuge ka koduturu hindadele ning lisaks sellele näevad analüütikud nõudluse, mis on tingitud nii sesoonsest eripärast kui ka erinevate majandusnäitajate tugevnemisest.

    Kui terase nõudlus suureneb , siis peaks analüütikute arvates X-i aktsia ka oma praegusest kauplemisvahemikust välja murdma ning liikuma $75 hinnasihi suunas.

    4. veebruaril tuli UBS välja üsna negatiivse calliga, millele omakorda juhtis tähelepanu ka Notable Calls blogipidaja. Just UBS ütles, et vanaraua hind langeb ning selle hind on ka terasehindade indikaator. UBS-i downgrade pani mitmed teraseaktsiad too päev ka müügisurve alla. Täna ütleb Goldman, et sel väitel pole alust ning hinnatõus jätkub ja nõudlus suureneb. Usun, et turuosalistele ei jää see tähelepanuta.

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NSIT +18.9%, LLNW +17.6%, CDII +15.1%, SPPI +14.6%, LPH +8.1%, MERC +7.9% (ticking higher), PERY +5.9%, BCS +5.7%, MSN +5.7% (light volume), MAR +4.6%, NVMI +2.9%, PSEC +1.4% (also will replace Martek Biosciences in S&P 600), HCP +0.8% (light volume).

    Select financial related names showing strength boosted by BCS results: LYG +2.6%, DB +1.9%, RBS +1.9%, STD +1.8%, IRE +1.7%.

    A few oil/gas related names showing modest strength: RIG +1.1%, REP +0.8%, BP +0.7%.

    A few auto related names trading modestly higher: TTM +1.9%, TM +1.3%, GM +0.6%.

    Other news: GLA +20.4% (announces intention to explore financial and strategic alternatives), CLDA +4.2% (still checking), GLUU +3.5% (Hearing initiated with Buy and $5 tgt at boutique firm), GEOI +2.9% (will replace Seahawk Drilling in S&P 600 index), GMCR +2.5% (continued strength following SBUX talks news; upgraded to Buy at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), AHL +2.3% (Greenlight Capital discloses 5.9% stake in 13G filing), DLTR +1.3% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), GE +0.7% (Fairholme boosts stake).

    Analyst comments: X +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), CRM +2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), FSC +0.5% (initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital).
  • February Empire Manufacturing 15.43 vs 16.00 Briefing.com consensus; January 11.92
    January Retail Sales ex- auto +0.3% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.3% from +0.5%
    January Retail Sales +0.3% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.5% from +0.6%
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: UCTT -10.1%, MAS -5.2%, FOSL -5.1%, NXPI -4.8%, PMI -4.6%, WLT -3.9%, SIRI -3.8%, IHG -2.4%, CTL -1.2%, CPLA -1% (light volume).

    M&A news: NYX -3.7% (reports indicate co and Deutsche Boerse could release details of their merger plans today).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: RIO -2.1%, BBL -1.5%, MT -1.2%.

    Other news: ANIK -13.9% (announced a Regulatory timing update; has not yet received a date for an Advisory Panel meeting, but continues to believe that MONOVISC should receive FDA approva), CKEC -7.3% (still checking), VRML -5.4% (to sell 4 mln shares of common stock at $5.45/share), DCT -4.7% (commences a public offering of 19 mln shares of common stock), CLI -4.7% (commenced a public offering of 5.5 mln shares of common stock, downgraded to Sell at Stifel Nicolaus ), UXG -4% (intends to offer 15 mln shares of its common stock in a public underwritten offering in the United States and Canada), NLY -3% (announces that it intends to make a public offering of 75 mln shares of its common stock), NFLX -2.6% (weakness being attributed to downgrade at tier 1 firm ), LOW -1.5% (ticking lower; Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio -- liquidated stake in the company), FDO -1.1% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), ENS -0.8% (to sell 2,845,869 shares of its common stock to Goldman).

    Analyst comments: CEPH -1.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Jefferies), LLTC -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), JDSU -1.3% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), CMG -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen), SID -0.5% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman).[u]

  • Sailing the Complacent Sea
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/15/2011 8:43 AM EST

    When a great team loses through complacency, it will constantly search for new and more intricate explanations to explain away defeat.
    -- Pat Riley

    Recent market action reflects little fear or worry. We just keep on climbing as the pattern of early weakness, aggressive dip-buying and strong finishes continue. Over the last 11 days of trading, we closed higher than we opened nine times and were just about flat the other two. The dip-buyers haven't had many big pullbacks during that time frame, but they have wasted no time at all rushing in on any slight softness.

    What is most striking about the market now is the very high level of complacency. While everyone seems to be looking for a top, no one seems to expect one to really occur. That is not too surprising when the market is at its highs, but it's interesting that there is so little interest in profit-taking even though there are a slew of stocks that are extended and badly in need of some consolidation.

    With any and all dips being immediately bought, it would be surprising if market players weren't at least a little complacent. Why should we worry about stocks going down when it almost never happens? Taking profits has proved to be a very foolish strategy in this market with such a steady uptrend.

    At some point the complacency will prove to be a problem and the market will sell off, but we will likely need some sort of good excuse to get the ball rolling. We never see the media talk about the market going down because too many people are unworried and there isn't much buying power left on the sidelines. There almost always is some sort of news that is used to explain what happens.

    We have to watch for some sort of intraday reversal and news that will serve as a convenient excuse for some selling. The pattern of buying early weakness and a strong finish needs to be broken if the bears are ever going to have any success.

    My strategy for dealing with this market remains the same: I'm going to keep on looking for new buys and will keep riding this uptrend, but I'll also continue to sell into strength and will be very watchful for any sort of intraday reversal.

    The character of this market has not shifted for quite some time, and there aren't any signs that we are about to see a change. On the other hand, a market that is this extended and has such a high level of complacency is vulnerable, and we have to be mentally prepared to deal with any quick shift.

    The good news this morning is that China CPI came in below expectations, which is helping to alleviate concerns of more tightening by the China central bank. However, outside of food there were still plenty of signs of inflationary pressures, so the positive reaction may be short-lived.

    The lack of volatility in this market has made it quite frustrating for active traders lately, but we have to play the hand that is dealt. That means navigating many very extended charts and a high level of complacency. There is obviously plenty of danger, but that has been the case for a while and has not mattered at all. Watch for a change in the price pattern of early weakness and a strong finish, but don't be too anxious to anticipate it.
  • December Net Long-term TIC Flows $65.9 bln, November $85.1 bln
  • February NAHB Housing Market Index 16 vs 17 Briefing.com consensus; January 16
    December Business Inventories +0.8% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.4% from +0.2%
  • The Fed purchased $6.69 bln of 2015/2016 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $31.01 bln
  • Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) shares see uptick in volume after Najarian, on CNBC, highlights call buying in the name
  • Reutersi andmetel ostab Sanofi-Aventis Genzyme’i (GENZ) $19.2 miljardi eest, millele lisanduvad tulevased maksed, mis sõltuvad Genzyme’i eksperimentaalravimi edust. Seega saavad Genzyme’i investorid ühe aktsia kohta $74. Allikate sõnul kuulutatakse tehing välja kolmapäeva hommikul ning juhul, kui kokkuleppe sõlmitakse, oleks tegu biotehnoloogiasektori läbi aegade suuruselt teise tehinguga. Sanofi-Aventis on püüdnud Genzyme’i üle võtta viimased üheksa kuud. (link)
  • Genzyme on end Sanofile "müünud" juba nii pikalt, et raske uskuda diili toimumist ka nüüd. Näidake hard evidence'i. Genzyme CEO juttu ka enam ei osta ;)
  • Covance (CVD): Hearing upgraded to buy at Madison Williams
  • Peab ütlema, et tänane Goldmani call töötas täitsa hästi, sest X avanes $62 peal ehk 2% plussis ning esimese hooga käis ära $63 all ning natuke hiljem ka üle $63 taseme. Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $62,50 kandis ehk 3,6% plusspoolel.

  • Dell prelim $0.53 vs $0.37 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $15.69 bln vs $15.71 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
    Dell sees FY12 rev +5-9% vs. +4.7% consensus
    Dell sees FY12 non-GAAP operating income growth of 6 to 12 percent, may not compare to +5.6% consensus
  • Bloombergi vahendusel üks huvitav uudis Wall Street'ilt:

    Möödunud aastal kaotasid JPM kauplejad raha vaid 8 päeval, mis on ca 80%line langus võrreldes 2009. aastaga. zerohedge on omaltpoolt lisanud statistikat, et möödunud aastal oli 260 kauplemispäeva ehk JPM teenis raha 96.9% kauplemispäevadest. Ma ei taha küll JPM kauplejate kohta midagi paha öelda, kuid statistiliselt on sellist tulemust võrdlemisi raske saavutada. Teisisõnu, õhku rippuma küsimus, et kuidas seda saavutati. Tehti Goldmani ja teeniti klientide arvelt raha?
  • Pimco ehk maailma üks suurimaid investeerimisfonde (ca $239 miljardit), mida juhib Bill Gross, on portfelli USA riiklikes võlakirjades vähendanud 22% pealt detsembris 12% peale jaanuaris. Jaanuaris oli 1/3 fondi investeeritud erinevatesse valitsuse võlakirjadesse (TIPS, riigi osalusega ettevõtted, pankade võlakirjad, mis on Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. poolt kindlustatud). Bill Gross on muideks ka QE2 ja riigi eelarvedefitsiidi üks suuri kriitikuid. Analüütikute hinnangul tekitab fondijuhile tõenäoliselt muret inflatsioon.
  • New York Fed avaldas eile raporti, milles räägitakse pikemalt USA majapidamiste krediidist. Allolev graafik kinnitab seda fakti, et hüpoteeklaenude trend on endiselt suunaga alla, mis avaldab paratamatult survet ka kinnisvaraturule. Samas on krediitkaartide taotluste arv jõudsalt kasvamas...

Teemade nimekirja