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Börsipäev 10. märts

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  • Vaatamata USA eilsele toornaftavarude raportile, mille kohaselt kerkisid musta kulla varud eelmisel nädalal oodatud 600 000 barreli asemel 2,5 miljoni barreli võrra, on WTI aprillikuu futuurid pärast kahepäevast langust taas tõusule pööranud, kui jätkuvat muret valmistab Liibüa rahutuste tagajärgede levimine Saudi Araabiasse. Nafta barrel kaupleb hetkel 0,6% võrra kõrgemal 105.0 dollaril ning on taas kahjustamas sentimenti globaalsetel turgudel.

    Tänasest makrouudistest võiks esile tõsta Prantsusmaa ja Suurbritannia jaanuarikuu tööstustoodangu numbrid, Suurbritannia intressimäära otsuse (kl 14.00) ning USA möödunud nädala esmased töötuabiraha taotlused (kl 15.30). Viimases osas ootab konsensus tõusu 368K pealt 382K peale ning kestvate taotluste puhul langust 3774K pealt 3750K peale.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,5% punases.
  • * MOODY'S DOWNGRADES SPAIN'S RATING TO AA2 FROM AA1 WITH A NEGATIVE OUTLOOK
  • Alles esmaspäeval $1,4030 tasemel käinud euro on pärast Kreeka ja Hispaania reitingute kärpeid viimase nelja päevaga dollari suhtes kukkunud -2,2%.
  • Hiina impordi ja ekspordi kasv tegid veebruaris läbi tugeva languse võrreldes jaanuariga, kui eriti suure üllatuse valmistas ekspordi 2,4%line YoY kasv (jaanuaris 37,7%), mis tingis kaubandusbilansi 7,3 miljardi dollarilise puudujäägi (jaanuaris oli ülejäägiks 6,5 miljardit dollarit). Kuid nii nagu mitmete teistegi veebruarikuu majandusnäitajate puhul, avaldas tõenäoliselt ka kaubandusstatistikale olulist mõju uue aasta püha.
  • Kreeka CDS tõusis 6 bp võrra uue rekordini 10,4% peale.
  • Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse toodangu kasv oli jaanuaris 1,8% võrreldes detsembriga, mil maht langes -0,2%. Bloombergi konsensus ootas 0,4%list kuist tõusu.
  • Suurbritannia jaanuari tööstustoodang 0,5% vs oodatud 0,4% (M/M) ja aastasel baasil 4,4% vs oodatud 4,2%.
    Töötleva tööstuse toodang 1,0% vs oodatud 0,6% (M/M) ja aastasel baasil 6,8% vs oodatud 6,3%.
    GBPUSD kaupleb hetkel 0,2% miinuspoolel 1,6167 juures.
  • Inglismaa keskpank jättis nii intressimäära kui ka stiimulprogrammi mahu muutmata, vastavalt 0,5% ja £200 miljardi peale.
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) kaupleb eelturul 30% plusspoolel, kuna täna hommikul teatas Starbucks (SBUX), et on GMCR-ga sõlminu strateegilise koostöölepingu, mille kohaselt hakatakse tootma, turustama ja müüma SBUX kaubamärgi alt K-Cup`e kasutamiseks GMCR`i Keurigi ühe kruusi kohvimasinates. Nimetatud uudist on investorid juba mõnda aega oodanud ning mõned nädalad tagasi said ootused ka korraliku tagasilöögi, sest ringlesid kuulujutud nagu SBUX ei kavatse kellegagi koostööd teha ning toob hoopis enda toote turule.
    Kus võitjaid, siis seal on alati ka kaotajaid. Antud juhul on kaotajaks Peet`s Coffe and Tea (PEET), mis hetkel kaupleb eelturul ligi 13% miinuses.
    Alles möödunud nädalal pakkusid Janney Capital Markets`i analüütikud PEET-i kõige tõenäolisemaks koostööpartneriks SBUX-le ning andsid aktsiale ka "osta" soovituse. Täna on Janney analüütikud sunnitud oma prognoosides tegema aga kannapöörde ning annavad PEET aktsiale "müü" soovituse.
  • Initial Claims 397K vs 382K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 371K from 368K
    Continuing Claims falls to 3.771 mln from 3.791 mln
    January Trade Balance -$46.3 bln vs -$41.5 bln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -$40.3 bln from -$40.6 bln
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FCEL +11.7%, SMTC +10.1%, SPPI +8.7% (ticking higher), JTX +8.0% (cancels quarterly earnings conference call in light of ongoing discussions between co and lenders under its senior secured credit agreement), HRB +4.3%, MW +4.0%, ASI +3.7% (light volume), FRPT +2.4%, HTHT +1.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray), MCP +1.7%.

    Other news: GMCR +22.1% and SBUX +6.4% (Starbucks and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters enter into strategic manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sales relationship), HGSI +11.1% (FDA approves Benlysta to treat lupus), ARNA +5.3% (expands GPR119 patent portfolio for Type 2 Diabetes), LSI +2.8% (to Sell External Storage Systems Business to NetApp for $480 Million (see 16:01); Board Authorizes New $750 Million Stock Repurchase Program), SVA +1.5% (reports positive preliminary Phase I clinical trial results for EV71 vaccine in adult group), AZK +1.2% (reports a 44% increase in mineral reserves for the Casa Berardi mine).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CWTR -15.8%, ESLR -9%, CSIQ -8.1%, HLYS -7.9%, SMTX -6.3% (thinly traded), SIGA -5.7%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -4.4%, DB -2.7%, UBS -2.6%, BBVA -2.6%, AEG -2.5%, LYG -1.8%, CS -1.5%, HBC -1.2%, AIG -1.1%, BAC -1%, RF -1.0%, HBAN -1.0%, JPM -0.9%, MS -0.9%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SHZ -15.8%, SSRI -4.5%, EXK -4.1%, PZG -4.1%, RIO -4.1%, CDE -3.8%, SLW -3.7%, GOLD -3.4%, BHP -3.3%, IVN -2.7%, SVM -2.6%, MT -2.6%, SLV -2.5%, HL -2.3%, URZ -1.9%, ABX -1.6%, FCX -1.6%, TCK -1.5%, GLD -0.8%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: LEI -7.8%, TIV -7.4%, ROYL -5.3%, HERO -3.6%, BDCO -3.5%, SD -2.5%, SDRL -2.5%, NE -2.3%, TOT -2.2%, VLO -1.8%, BP -1.7%, RIG -1.5%, PBR -1.3%.

    Other news: ARYX -52.6% (informed of additional delay by FDA and begins wind-down of operations), ASML -4.8% (checking for anything specific), ARMH -4.7% (hearing weakness attributed to comments out of JP Morgan saying the co is most at risk from poor non-iPad tablet sales), NTAP -2.2% (to purchase Engenio external storage systems business of LSI for $480 mln; expected to be accretive to NTAP's EPS by the end of Q2 of FY12; downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna), EXEL -2.0% (prices 15 mln share public offering at $11.00), TCB -1.2% (prices 13,114,755 shares of its common stock has priced at $15.25 per share ), FXEN -1.0% (commenced an underwritten public offering of 6,000,000 shares of its common stock), GM -0.9% (General Motors Vice Chairman and CFO Chris Liddell announced that he will leave the co April 1, 2011).

    Analyst comments: PEET -11.9% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at Janney Montgomery Scott), TS -3.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), UL -1.4% (removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman).
  • News Isn't All That's Driving the Market
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/10/2011 8:57 AM EST

    "News is almost by definition bad news."

    --Marquis W. Childs

    It is always surprising how fast the mood of the market can shift. One day it seems as if we will never pull back again, and then a short while later everything seems so negative you wonder if we will ever rally.

    This morning we have a number of negative headlines weighing on the market. China had a surprise trade deficit, its largest in seven years. That was partly due to the Lunar New Year holiday, which slows production for a week, but the higher prices China is paying for natural resources was what really put them in the red.

    In Europe, a downgrade of Spain's debt hit the euro and drove overseas markets down. Headlines that Muammar Gadhafi is ready to talk about a possible transition of power has put pressure on oil, but this market either doesn't believe it or is more concerned about other matters.

    This weak action shouldn't be a big surprise. There have been clear signs of distribution for several weeks and clear technical deterioration. The market is still holding some key support but still struggling. The dip buyers are disinterested, and we just aren't bouncing back like we have so forcefully in the past. The fact that we are down even though oil is under pressure just confirms that there is more going on here than just some reflexive trading to the Middle East issues.

    The key to dealing with this market is to stay focused on defense and make sure that you don't let losses grow too much. Good opportunities are developing, but we need to monitor them and not feel compelled to rush in too quickly. The easiest way to get into trouble in a market environment like this is to treat an oversold bounce as a significant market bottom. If you are going to try to play some bounces, which is a sound approach, you just can't trust them to last. As the old saying goes, buy the dips but make sure to sell the rips. This is not the time to let trades turn into long-term investments.

    Also, stay aware of time frames. We are in a trading range, and bounces aren't likely to last for long. Have an exit strategy and a plan for every trade. If a trade doesn't work, make sure you are disciplined about dumping it, because it can turn ugly very quickly in a poor tape.

    If you are looking to build longer-term positions, do so very slowly and keep plenty of cash on hand until conditions change. You can find good values but it is surprising how much better those values can become if the market undergoes a protracted correction.

    The risk in this market is to the downside. So play defense, keep time frames short and don't be in a rush to build longer term positions. If you keep your accounts near their highs you will be in great shape when the action turns back up. Don't try to be the hero how calls the exact bottom.
  • AOL to cut about 20% of global workforce - CNBC citing Reuters
  • Wall Street Journal kirjutab, et Goldman Sachsi analüütikute arvates ootab meid ees aasta täis ülevõtmisi ja ühinemisi.
    Analüütikud pakuvad välja, et tõenäolised ülevõtukandidaadid on näiteks Allergan (AGN), DirecTV (DTV), VMware (VMW, Textron (TXT) ja Estee Lauder (EL). Ühtlasi soovitavad analüütikud optsioonikauplejatele mitmeid erinevaid variante, kuidas M&A tegevusest võimalikult palju kasu lõigata ja neist on võimalik lähemalt lugeda siin.
  • No Permanent Open Market Operation today
    The Fed will release its next POMO schedule at 2 p.m. ET
  • Green Mtn Coffee tgt raised to $90 from $62 at Janney Montgomery Scott
  • $13 bln 30-yr Bond Reopening Results: 4.569% (Expected 4.610%); Bid/Cover 3.02x (Prior 2.51x, 10-auction avg 2.66x); Indirect Bidders 40.7% (Prior 43.1%, 10-auction avg 38.9%)
  • RCRC : +20%
    Hearing move attributed to Nikkei report that Tomy planning to buy the company.
  • Market sees quick pullback as oil spikes; action attributed to headlines that Saudi police are firing at a rally in the east
  • February Treasury Budget -$222.5 bln vs -$196 bln Briefing.com consensus; prior -$220 bln
  • Dendreon spikes a point following New Jersey manufacturing facility approval news
  • Täna väga punane börsipäev. Müügisurve taga on turule juba pikka aega tuttavad riskid - milline saab olema euroala võlakriisi, Hiina kasvu jahtumise ja kõrgema nafta hinna mõju majanduskasvule. Põhiline aga see, et väga paljud turuosalised on portfellid aktsiaid täis tankinud, mistõttu toob majanduskasvu teeside küsimärgi alla seadmine börsidele lühiajaliselt korralikku müügisurvet.

    Nagu Bespoke'i poolt koostatud graafikult näha, siis soovitavad enamus suuremaid analüüsimaju korrektsioone ostmiseks kasutada ja suuremat paanikat ei karda keegi:

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