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Börsipäev 15. märts

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  • Kolmas plahvatus Fukushima tuumajaamas on suurenenud radiatsiooni hirmu ning tinginud paanilise positsioonide likvideerimise Jaapani aktsiaturgudel. Jaapani peaministri sõnul on radiatsioon kõnealloleva tuumajaama läheduses märkimisväärselt kasvanud ning Prantsuse saatkonna väitel võib madalat radiatsiooni kandev tuul jõuda ka pealinna.

    Nikkei 225 oli keskpäeval kuni 14%lises languses, kuid taastus mõnevõrra päeva lõpus, sulgudes -10,55% madalamal. Topix on viimase kahe päevaga kaotanud 17% oma väärtusest – suurim kahe päevane kukkumine alates 1987 aasta aktsiaturgude krahhist. Erinevalt eilsest võis täna näha investorite reaktsiooni ka muudel Aasia turgudel (Shanghai Composite -2,0%, Hang Seng -3,24%, S&P/ASX -2,11%). Praegustel varajastel hommikutundidel on ka USA futuurid väga sügavas miinuses, kaubeldes -1,8-2,0% madalamal. Euroopa indeksite futuurid indikeerivad avanemist 2% jagu madalamal.
  • Väga tihti sellist asja ei kohta....kõigest paari päevaga on Nikkei 225 tagasi 2009. aasta aprilli põhjades

  • Tänane makrokalender saab Jaapani sündmuste valguses olema teisejärguline, kuid olgu siinkohal mõned kellaajad siiski välja toodud. 12.00 - Saksamaa Zew majandussentimendi indeksid (märts), 14.30 - USA Empire State manufacturing index (märts), 20.15 - FOMC kohtumine. Viimase puhul väga drastilist muutust sõnastuses ei oodata, kui siis viidatakse viimase aja paranevatele tööturu trendidele ning tõenäoliselt otsustatakse ka QE2-ga lõpuni välja minna.
  • 1995. aasta Kobe maavärina ajal liikus Nikkei 225 indeks veel kuid allapoole, saavutades põhja alles 25% madalamal (seekord on kukkumine esialgu järsem).

    Samas 1995. aasta lõpus kauples Nikkei 225 maavärina eelsest tasemest kõrgemal. Ka seekord olid Jaapani aktsiad enne maavärinat atraktiivsed (loe pikemalt nt siit), mistõttu võib tuumakatastroofi puudumisel tekkida taas häid võimalusi põrkele panustamiseks.
  • Euroopa börsidel on päeva algus väga punane – DAX on kukkunud koguni 4.7%.
    S&P ja Nasdaqi futuurid hetkel -2.6%.
    General Electric (GE), kes disainis Fukushima Daiichi tuumajaamas kasutatavad reaktorid, kaupleb eelturul 9% madalamal.
  • kui DAXi lahti lüüa siis on näha, et suurimat gravitatsiooni tunnevad utilities, basic materials ja autotööstus, mille ettevõtted on ühel või teisel moel Jaapani majandusega seotud
  • DB toob välja, et Saksamaa eksport Jaapanisse moodustab tagasihoidlikud 0.6%-i SKPst:

    European exports to Japan make up 2.3% of total noneuro area exports, and are worth less than 0.4% of euro area GDP. For Germany, these levels are slightly higher. Exports to Japan make up about 0.6% of GDP. Even then it is not clear what the impact would have on European exports to Japan. Imports of consumer goods from Japan would almost certainly decline, but imports of plant and equipment used in the rebuilding process could increase.

    As a theme, the disaster in Japan might have a larger impact via asset losses than sales losses for Europe. Most vulnerable might be re-insurers and auto producers with Japanese assets. Within sales, the largest exposures appear to be in luxury goods, healthcare and basic resources.
  • Citi on täna Euroopa energiasektorile omaltpoolt veidi müügisurvet lisamas
    Citigroup cuts Eon price target to 19 EUR from 20 EUR; rating sell * Citigroup cuts RWE price target to 39 EUR from 41 EUR; rating sell * Citigroup cuts edf price target to 32 EUR from 33 EUR; rating hold
  • Export Prices ex-ag +0.9%, prior +0.9%
    Import Prices ex-oil +0.6%; prior +0.8%
    March Empire Manufacturing Survey 17.5 vs 17.0 Briefing.com consensus; February 15.43
  • Täna on Goldman Sachs väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Netflix (NFLX) kohta.
    Goldman Sachs tõstab NFLX reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale koos $300 hinnasihiga.


    We upgrade Netflix to Buy as: (1) NFLX benefits from rapid growth of online video consumption, driven by the proliferation of connected devices - 27% of US consumers now stream TV shows/movies, up from 16% yoy according to our GS Internet Usage Survey; (2) Netflix now has sufficient scale to make it difficult for new entrants given low price points and expensive content costs; and (3) Competition to date has been under whelming and we believe that demand for streaming online content could be large enough for multiple players. Catalysts include: (1) International broadband ISP partnerships, allowing for sooner break-even points; (2) New market and product announcements; (3) Additional streaming content deals, including the possible renewal of the Starz Encore agreement; and (4) Earnings – we expect 1Q sub growth and 2Q guidance to be strong.

    Analüütikud soovitavad NFLX osta mitmel põhjusel ja usuvad, et üle interneti filmide vaatamise nõudluse suurus loob piisavalt suure mänguväljaku, kuhu mahub ära mitu mängijat , viidates siis aktsias hiljuti aset leidnud langusele, mis tulenes suurenenud konkurentsihirmust. Ühtlasi näevad analüütikud katalüsaatoritena uusi turge ning lepinguid ning lisaks sellele on veendunud firma esimese kvartlai tulemused tulevad head ning järgmise kvartali prognoos tugev.

    Tegemist on üsna mõistliku calliga ja vaatamata sellele, et $300 pole küll street high, siis tegemist on vägagi arvestatava hinnasihiga. Olulisem on siinkohal hirm konkurentsi suurenemise pärast, mis on tekitanud viimastel nädalatel aktsias korraliku müügisurve. Täna ütleb aga Goldman, et nende arvates on nõudlus teenuse järele piisavalt suur, et turule mahub ära ka mitu pakkujat. Igal teisel päeval oleks antud upgrade tähendanud tõenäoliselt +5% liikumist, aga täna on ajastus ebaõnnestunud, sest turg on hetkel pigem müügimeeleolus. NFLX on keeruline aktsia kauplemiseks ka positiivsel turul, seda enam on see seda täna, seega konservatiivne lähenemine on täna igati omal kohal.


  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BWEN +12%, HEK +5.9%, BDE +3.4%, (thinly traded).

    Alternative energy names continuing to outperform with ongoing nuclear power crisis: ASTI +15.1%, APWR +10.4%, STP +7.5%, FSLR +7.4%, TSL +5%, LDK +4.5%, TAN +3.7%, JKS +3.6%, JASO +3.1%, SPWRA +2.1%,

    Other news: PESI +26.6% (continued strength following earnings), CCRT +16.4% (announces tender offer to purchase up to 13,125,000 shares of its common stock), IPXL +8.7% (Impax Labs reports IPX066 demonstrates efficacy and safety in ADVANCE-PD Phase III study in treatment of advanced Parkinson's Disease), PWER +3.4% (power conversion products company, continued strength).

    Analyst comments: NVAX +4% (initiated with Outperform at Wedbush), NFLX +1.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: UEC -20.9%, CRZO -15.3%, BWS -14.9%, AOB -11.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray), ZAGG -8.8%, ATPG -6.4%, DOLE -5.7%, CEL -3.2%.

    Japan names under significant pressure with ongoing crisis following earthquake:
    SNE -6.7%, TM -6.6%, HMC -6.5%, CAJ -6.2%, HIT -4.2%.

    Nuclear power related names trading lower for second consecutive day:
    SHAW -9.1%, BWC -3.8%, FLR -1.7%.

    Select uranium related names showing continued weakness: DNN -21.6%, URZ -18.8%, CCJ -17.2%, URRE -17.1%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: AIG -9.3%, DB -6.7%, FITB -5.0%, COF -4.8%, KEY -4.7%, RDN -4.5%, UBS -4.3%, STI -3.7%, PMI -3.6%, RF -3.5%, USB -3.2%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: CXZ -17.3%, EXK -15.1%, GPL -13.1%, PZG -11.3%, SVM -10.1%, PAL -9.8%, NG -9.7%, CDY -9.5%, SWC -8.7%, SLW -8.6%, PAAS -8.1%, NGD -8.1%, EGO -6.7%, HL -6.7%, ABX -4.7%.

    A few rare earth names are also trading lower: SHZ -11.4%, AVL -10.4%, MCP -8.2%, REE -7.3%, GSM -4.2%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: CFW -12.8%, CPE -12.6%, HDY -9.7%, LNG -9.4%, KOG -7.6%, NOG -7.5%, ROYL -6.6%, BEXP -6.4%, RIG -6.2%, IVAN -6.2%.

    Other news: SBAY -29.1% (discloses that James T. Crane, CFO, announced that he will resign from the Company to pursue other professional interests, effective 3/14), CIGX -10.9% (modestly pulling back), AFL -6.8% (continued weakness on Japan concerns), UTA -6.6% (still checking for anything specific), RLOG -5.8% (files to sell $25 mln in common stock; files to sell 2,279,255 shares of common stock for shareholders ), SNBC -5.2% (announces commencement of public offering of ~$75 mln in common stock), WX -5% (hearing related to pricing), SD -4.7% (provides results for its cash tender offer and related consent solicitation for its 8.625% Senior Notes due 2015), FGP -3.2% (prices an offering of 4.4 mln common units representing limited partner interests at a public offering price of $26.27 per unit ), DELL -3.1% (filed for a $2 bln debt securities shelf offering), HPQ -2.7% (announces new dividend goals, increases regular quarterly dividend by 50% to $0.12 ), ILMN -0.4% (to Offer $800 Million Convertible Senior Notes ).

    Analyst comments: AJG -6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital), FSIN -4.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), INTC -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura), AMSC -2.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham), OXY -2% (removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman).
  • Nikkei -17.5% 2-päevaga
    Toyota -14.74%
    Honda -10.15%
  • The Market Abhors Uncertainty
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/15/2011 9:04 AM EDT

    Panic is a sudden desertion of us, and a going over to the enemy of our imagination.
    -- Christian Nevell Bovee

    It is scenario that no one imagined a week ago, but a potential nuclear meltdown in Japan is causing worldwide panic in the markets this morning. We also have growing unrest in Bahrain as that country declares a state of emergency. Curiously, oil is falling sharply at the same time a key alternative energy source is being lost, but there is more worry about economic slowing now than there is about oil shortages.

    Panic is always a product of the fear of the unknown. There is nothing the market dislikes more than uncertainty, and we have a tremendous amount of it now. We just don't know how bad the nuclear situation will become in Japan, and we don't know how much worse things will become in the Middle East. When we have issues like these, market players tend to imagine the worst and they sell first and ask questions later.

    If you have been heeding the message of the market over the past couple weeks, you should have already been taking defensive steps. We have been threatening to roll over and trend lower for weeks now. All the recent bounces have failed and there is no leadership to be found. It is a technical picture that demanded some defense.

    The big question now is, how do we deal with this? If you are still holding long positions, it is probably not a good idea to panic-sell into this weakness. The likelihood of some sort of short-term bounce is quite high, and that will be the time to think about cutting positions that you are in trapped in.

    It is often said that you don't make money by panicking. I'm not so sure that is true. Quite often you are better off taking your losses and then looking to make it back in other names. The stocks that you ride down during a downtrend are usually not the ones that rebound the best. There is no reason to stick with the same stocks, but people do -- out of inertia and emotional attachment rather than logic. Sometimes you are better off escaping a situation and taking your lumps just because it helps you regain your emotional footing.

    If you are holding a high level of cash, when do you start buying? As I discussed yesterday, there are two major approaches. The primary approach of institutional Wall Street (and what you see in the media) is to average into weakness. Big players like to identify their favorite stocks and then buy them steadily as they decline. They hope to have a low enough cost-basis that they will make good money when we eventually bounce.

    The other approach, which I think is better for fast-moving and flexible individual investors, is to avoid predicting a low, instead waiting for the market to stabilize and then buying strength when we start to turn up. If you act fast, there will be plenty of upside when the market turns and you will cut the risk that the downtrend will continue.

    No matter what approach you use to deal with the market, you must use some sort of money methodology to cut losses and protect capital. It is stunning how fast the losses can come when we reverse like this, and you can give back months of hard-won gains in the blink of an eye. The only way to really protect yourself is to sell and go to cash. Sometimes that won't work, but it is often a very cheap form of insurance. The great thing about the market is that you can always jump back in very quickly.

    We'll see if the dip-buyers are willing to step up this morning, but watch for failed bounces. Lots of bargain hunters will be looking to buy, but many will be flippers -- and there are lots of trapped longs now who will be looking for escape. Identify the stocks you'd like to own and be ready ... but above all else, protect your capital.
  • Iseenesest pole see mingi ime, et aktsiabörs suudab mind üllatada - ikka saab mööda pandud. Aga kui ma näen, et käibelt pühiti Jaapanis - no ütleme umbes 1 miljon autot - aga kõigi autotootjate aktsiakursid langevad, siis - no ei ole väga loogiline. Täiendav ask on ju reaalselt olemas.
    Aga juba lähen ja loen tarku raamatuid edasi
  • Ka mina imestan - kas arenevate turgude nõudluse kasv feilab nüüd selle peale, et Jaapanis on asjad halvasti?
  • a) Tehased seisavad
    b) Kui toimub tuumajaama(de) plahvatus, siis radioaktiivne saaste võib alad kasutuskõlbematuks muuta
    c) Koostage juba praegu valmis nimekiri mille alusel aktsiate ostmist alustada kui paanika mööduma hakkab
  • Hea meelega peaks seda kõike vaid päevapaanikaks, aga murelikuks teevad käibed. Pole sugugi sedasi, et kukub väikese käibega ja seega lootust kiireks recoveriks. Samas- osad suurest paanikast, teised lihsalt selleks müüvad, et odavamalt osta- seega müügist huvitatud kõik osalised.
  • Headlines crossing indicating that more than 200 people have been wounded in clashes in Bahrain
  • NFLX kohta pole mul täna enamat lisada, kui seda, et ma täiesti alahindasin NFLX-i aktsia võimeid.
    Allolev graafik räägib enda eest.
    Hetkel kaupleb NFLX $216,30 kandis ehk 7,5% plusspoolel.

  • Fitch Upgrades Latvia to 'BBB-'; Outlook Positive
  • Radiation levels have fallen at Japan's earthquake-stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, the government says.
  • The king of Bahrain has declared a three-month state of emergency, state TV reports, following weeks of pro-democracy protests in the kingdom.
  • Seekingalpha.com veebilehel päris huvitav graafik sellest, kellele ja kui palju USA valitsus võlgu on.
  • Zerohedge vahendusel ringleb kuulujutt, et Nikkei suletakse selleks nädalaks.

    Mkt rumour nikkei to remain closed for the rest of week..margin issues.....some rumbling all afternoon, but as we head towards the end of European trading more people asking
  • Kes hoiab silma peal haruldastel muldmetallidel ehk rare earth elements sektoril, siis võiks lugeda täna Reutersis ilmunud artiklit, kus kirjutatakse, et Jaapanis toimunud maavärin võib hindadesse küll mõningase leevenduse tooma, aga pikemas perspektiivis ületab nõudlus siiski pakkumise mitmeks aastaks.
    Artiklis mainitud ettevõtted: Molycorp (MCP), Lynas (LYC), Creat Western Minerals Group (GWG) ja Avalon Rare Metals (AVL).



  • Fitch Downgrades Bahrain to 'BBB'; On Rating Watch Negative
  • As expected, FOMC leaves rates at 0.0-0.25%, keeps QE plan in place through end of Q2
  • Tokyo Stock Exchange official says market will open as usual on Wednesday - CNBC
  • Three week extension of Federal govt spending wins enough votes to pass US House - CNBC
  • Fukushima neljandas reaktoris puhkes tulekahju.

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