LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 24. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Nagu eile kõige tõenäolisemaks hinnati, otsustas Portugali parlament tagasi lükata valitsuse järjekordse kärpekava, mis tõi EUR/USD kursi õhtul alla $1,41 taseme. Portugali peaminister on esitanud oma lahkumisavalduse, kuid peab jääma ametisse kuni reedeni, mil Jose Socrates koos teiste poliitiliste parteidega uuesti presidendiga kohtub. Kuid kõige tõenäolisemaks stsenaariumiks on uued valimised, mis tähendaks, et kuni maikuuni astuks ametisse vahevalitsus, kelle suurimaks proovikiviks saab olema üle 4 miljardi euro ulatuses aeguvate võlakirjade refinantseerimine aprilli keskel. Juhul kui seda raha ei suudeta turult mõistliku intresside juures laenata, peab vahevalitsus ilmselt välisabi paluma hakkama. Royal Bank of Scotland hindab Portugali päästepaketi suuruseks ligikaudu 80 miljardit eurot.

    Kuid vaatamata kasvavale murele Euroopa perifeeriariikide pärast, koalitsioonivägede rünnakutele Liibüas, 105 dollarini kerkinud naftahinnale ja jätkuvale radiatsioonilekkele Fukushima tuumajaamas, lõpetasid nii Euroopa kui USA turud eile kõrgemal ning suuresti plusspoolel on kauplemas täna hommikul ka Aasia indeksid. USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad hetkel nulli lähedal.

    Tänastest makrouudistest võiksid suuremat tähelepanu pälvida eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse märtsi esmane PMI näit (11.00), Suurbritannia veebruari jaemüük (kell 11.30), USA veebruari kestvuskaupade tellimused ja möödunud nädala töötuabiraha taotluste number (kell 14.30). Esmakordsete taotlejate numbriks ootab konsensus 384K (eelneval nädalal 385K) ning kestvate taotluste suurusjärguks 3700K (eelneval nädalal 3706K).
  • Hispaania reitingu kärpimise järel on Moody's täna ühe või ename pügala võrra langetanud riigi 30 panga reitinguid.

    Moody's said key drivers are: heightened financial pressure on Spain's sovereign debt and many weak banks; declining systemic importance of many smaller and regional banks amid sector consolidation; and weakening future support for many smaller and regional banks across Europe. Moody's said ratings for Spain's three biggest banks, Banco Santander SA, BBVA SA and La Caixa remain unchanged at Aa2. Outside of that, Moody's said 15 banks were cut by two notches and five banks by three or four notches. The outlook on most banks' senior debt and deposit ratings remains negative and some ratings are still under review owing to the current consolidation process.
  • HSBC koostatav Hiina töötleva tööstuse PMI näitas märtsi esimese kolme nädala jooksul ootuspärast põrget pärast uusaasta pidustustest moonutatud veebruarikuu statistikat (51,7 punkti pealt 52,5 punktile) ning sellega leevendab hirmu majanduse kiirest jahtumisest.
  • Finantsturgudele on olukord Hispaanias võtmetähtsusega. Portugali valitsuse suutmatus kärpeid läbi suruda turge ei hirmuta, kuna võimalik päästeplaan on üsna tagasihoidlik. Siin üks vanem Nomura graafik, mille järgi vajab Portugali valitsus ca 50 miljardit eurot. Hispaania aga ca 450 miljardit eurot!

    Siiani on Hispaania valitsus suutnud vajalikke kärpeid teha ja hiljutiste Portugali probleemide taustal on pikaajaliste Hispaania valitsuse võlakirjade tulusus isegi natuke allapoole tulnud. Olukord ei ole siiski veel kaugeltki positiivne, kuna nt 10. aastase valitsuse võlakirja tulusus on 5.2%-i. Ideaalis võiks number olla madalam pikaajalisest majanduskasvu ootusest, et vältida lumepalliefekti, kus võla suhe SKPsse väheneb.
  • Alloleval joonisel on kujutatud Portugali ja Saksamaa 10 aastase võlakirjade tulususte erinevusi eilse sulgumise seisuga. Täna homikul on aga vahe veelgi suuremaks kärisenud, kui Portugali 10 aastase võlakirja intress teeb euro ajaloo uut tippu 7,9% peal.
  • Lisaks veel eelnevalt mainitud Hiina PMIile, et ülekuumenemise ja raske maandumise kartuses ei ole sealsed aktsiad alates 2009. aasta suvest suurt tõusu teinud. Seda on näha ka USAs kauplevates Hiina ETFides. Siin näiteks iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI) ja S&P500 liikumist kajastava SPY tootlus alates 2009. aasta suvest:

    Kui nüüd Hiina majandus peaks raske maandumise asemel näitama tasapisi aeglustuvaid kasvunumbreid, siis võiks Hiina aktsiad siit üsna huvitavad olla. MSCI China indeks kaupleb hetkel 11,5x oodatavat aastast kasumit, mis on Hiina aktsiate puhul üsna soodne hinnatase.
  • Portugali ajaleht Diario Economico kirjutab (google translate), et Eurostat tõenäoliselt korrigeerib Portugali mullust eelarvedefitsiiti varasema 6,9% pealt üle 8% finantskulude tõttu, mille tingis osade ettevõtete liikumine valitsuse käsutusse.
  • Saksamaa märtsikuu PMI tööstusindeks 60,9 vs oodatud 62,7 punkti; teenustesektori indeks 60,1 vs oodatud 58,4 punkti.
    Eurotsooni märtsikuu PMI tööstusindeks 57,7 vs oodatud 58,3 punkti; teenustesektori indeks 56,9 vs oodatud 56,3 punkti. Liitindeks tuli 57,5 vs oodatud 57,8 punkti.
    Euro kaupleb hetkel 0,09% kõrgemal $1,4100 tasemel.
  • Suubritannia jaemüük ex auto ja kütus kasvas aastaga 1,2%, kui Bloombergi konsensus ootas ligi kaks korda suuremat kasvu. Jaanuari muutus korrigeeriti 5,3% pealt 5,0% peale.
  • Tänane Reuters kirjutab Bill Nguyeni uuest plaanist tuua turule mobiilipõhine sotsiaalvõrgustik, mille eesmärk on pakkuda konkurentsi Facebook`le. Nguyen on tuntud innovaatilise ettevõtjana, kes oma viimase firma müüs 2009. aastal Apple`le.
    Uus sotsiaalvõrgustik Color on nutitelefonis kasutatav tasuta aplikatsioon, mis lubab inimestel reaalajas edastada sõnumeid, fotosid ja videosid. Color`i loojad loodavad, et uus trend, kus inimesed eelistavad aina enam vahetada infot reaalajas, toob inimesed arvutite juurest nutitelefonide juurde
  • Toyota on vaikselt käivitamas taas Jaapani tootmisliine alustades esmaspäevast kolme hübriidmudeli tootmisega. Sellega leevendatakse veidi seniseid kartusi, et terve tööstuse pakkumisahel võib olla mitmeid kuid tugevalt häiritud.

    Toyota Motor Corp said on Thursday it would restart production of three hybrid models on Monday after a massive earthquake this month disrupted output across the industry. Production will resume for the Prius, Lexus HS250h and CT200h at the Tsutsumi factory in central Japan and Toyota Motor Kyushu in the south, spokeswoman Shiori Hashimoto said. All 18 factories that assemble Toyota and Lexus vehicles in Japan, including those operated by group units, have been closed by the quake. A further seven plants directly operated by Toyota that make engines and other parts are also affected. The production halt will result in lost production of at least 140,000 vehicles.

  • Initial Claims 382K vs 384K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 387K from 385K
    Continuing Claims falls to 3.721 mln from 3.723 mln
    February Durable Orders -0.9% vs +1.1% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +3.6% from +3.2%
    February Durable Orders ex-trans -0.6% vs +1.8% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -3.0% from -3.0%
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CHRS +14.2% (light volume), RHT +12.3% (also upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird), MU +6.1% (also upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at Nomura, upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie), OMN +6% (light volume), CSUN +5.6%, BBY +5.5%, CAT +1.1% (outlines investment plans for analysts at CONEXPO-CON/AGG trade show), SAI +0.7%.

    M&A news: DSCM (Drugstore.com to be acquired by Walgreens for $3.80 per share in cash), S +0.6% (ticking higher on light volume; continued M&A speculation).

    A few financial related names ticking higher: DB +2.1%, RBS +1.3%, HBC +0.6%.

    Rare earth names trading higher: SHZ +7%, REE +3.2%, AVL +3%, MCP +2.8%,

    Other news: TSON +31.9% (ticking higher, receives AxiaLIF 1L+ 510(k) FDA clearance), TASR +3.7% (announces an order of TASER X3 electronic control devices and related accessories from an unnamed international customer; announces the repurchase of 1.25 million shares of common stock pursuant to its previously announced $12.5 million stock buy-back program), IMAX +1.5% (forms 75 theatre joint revenue sharing agreement in China with Wanda Cinema Line), BP +1.2% (still checking), APA +0.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: HMY +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital), MOBI +1.6% (initiated with a Outperform at Oppenheimer), AMZN +1.1% (Hearing upgraded at William Blair), T +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein).
  • Pharmasset (VRUS) tgt raised to $100 from $49 at JP Morgan
  • U.S. Bancorp (USB) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FUL -4.9%.

    A few Japan related names showing early weakness: CAJ -3.3%, TM -2.2%, HMC -2%, SNE -1.8%.

    Other news: MNOV -16.4% (prices 2.75 mln units at $3.00 per unit), PRAN -7.6% (modestly pulling back from this week's surge higher), HWD -4.6% (hearing related to block trade), IRDM -3.8% (pulling back after seeing afternoon pop), PAY -2.6% (weakness being attributed to reports that French payment terminal co Ingenico had also been selected for GOOG's NFC payment trial), HYC -4.6% (under pressure along with PAY), NCT -2% (prices 15 mln shares of common stock at $6.00 per share ), COF -1.3% (ticking lower following reports out that its capital redistribution request was denied; co announced last week that it did not intend to raise its $0.05 quarterly dividend).

    Analyst comments: ICO -4.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T), TAM -1.3% (light volume; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).
  • Täna on William Blair & Company analüütikud väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega väljas Amazon (AMZN) kohta.
    William Blair tõstab AMZN reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale.


    We have added confidence that Amazon.com can sustain strong market share gains with its dominant assortment and competitive pricing, even compared with leading mass merchants known for “everyday low prices.” Comparing 20 general merchandise categories with roughly 480 items each at Target (TGT $50.24; Market Perform) and Wal-Mart (WMT $51.64; Market Perform) stores, Amazon.com has 78 times the assortment whereas Target.com has 3.5 times and Walmart.com has 5.6 times the selection of the stores.

    Wal-Mart is the price leader for general merchandise items in our study, although prices are equivalent when sales taxes are included (in the store) and with free shipping for Amazon.com Prime members. While Target has a modest price advantage on list prices versus Amazon.com, most consumers will pay less at Amazon.com if purchasing in a state without sales taxes. mAssuming the sales tax advantage eventually goes away, our research indicates the Amazon.com Prime member pays a modest premium to the Wal-Mart store and essentially the same prices as at Target. Amazon.com pricing to the consumer is superior to Target.com and Walmart.com, as we found the retailers charge higher shipping fees on identical items.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et AMZN on eeldused võita turuosa oma konkurentidelt Target (TGT) ja Wal-Mart (WLT), kuna firma pakub eelpool nimetatutega märksa laiemat sortimenti ning lisaks sellele ei oma kumbi konkurentidest Amazoni ees ka hinnaeelist.

    Second, we believe the proliferation of smartphones and mobile commerce has the potential to vastly increase price transparency for consumers, which we believe will enhance the growth opportunity for Amazon.com.

    Teiseks usuvad analüütikud, et nüüd, kus tänu mobiilsele kaubandusele on võimalik tarbija jaoks hindade läbipaistvust veelgi suurendada, on positiivne AMZN jaoks.
    Third, we have increased confidence that stepped-up investment spending for fulfillment centers and Amazon Web Services will have compelling future returns.

    Kolmandaks on analüütikud veendunud, et suuremahulised investeeringud on firmale tulevikus korralikult ära tasumas.

    Veebruari viimasel päeval alandasid UBS analüütikud AMZN reitingut „hoia“ peale ja sealt alates on aktsia ka müügisurve all olnud. Täna ütlevad aga William Blair analüütikud, et firma on konkurentidelt turuosa võitmas, mis peaks kindlasti investorid aktsiasse tagasi meelitama, kuid tuleks arvestada ka sellega, et William Blair on väike maja ning call ei pruugi piisavalt tähelepanu saada. Aktsia on eelturul kauplemas $168,00 kandis ehk 1,6% plusspoolel.

  • Up and at 'Em
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/24/2011 8:59 AM EDT

    "Logic is the art of going wrong with confidence."

    --Joseph Wood Krutch

    Portugal refuses to cut spending and needs a bailout, oil continues to tick higher as the situation in Libya remains unresolved and the housing numbers yesterday were abysmal -- but we have strong action to start the day.

    Logic would suggest we gap down to open, but action in Europe was quite upbeat and, frankly, I'm not sure why. I suspect that it has to do with hopes that the European Central Bank will be forced to put together a bailout fund and some optimism about the recovery in Japan, but there aren't any clear catalysts that I can see.

    Whatever the reason, it is causing some scrambling this morning. The news flow has been quite negative lately and that has caused some folks to be out of position with too little long exposure, especially after the intraday reversal and strong close yesterday. The 1300 area of the S&P 500 looked like it was going to continue to serve as overhead resistance, but we are going to break that level if this early action holds.

    I'd like to have a better understanding of what is driving this early strength, but all we really need to know right now is that it has caught folks by surprise and they now have to make adjustments. That tends to create a supply of dip buyers who are frustrated that they are underinvested. If we break through 1300-1304, then that will become the new area of support -- but the danger of a failed breakout is quite high.

    Given how often this market has pulled off V-ish moves through key technical levels over the past few years, we probably shouldn't be too surprised by this action. If the bears are unable to beat it back, we then have all the makings once again of a market driven by a short squeeze and underinvested bulls who have to chase.

    I am skeptical that we can ignore all the negative news out there, especially higher oil, but there are apparently bears who acted on similar beliefs lately, and they are feeling some pain this morning.

    Logic isn't always the best trading approach. The market will often do things that seem quite puzzling to us. Generally, we are better off not fighting it but trying to adapt as things develop.

    It is going to be tough to trust this early strength, but the key will be the action on the early pullbacks. If bulls are quick to flip and lock in some gains and the dip buyers don't show some aggressiveness, we could see a quick reversal.

    Durable goods reports look poor, and weekly claims are basically in line. That is causing some reversal of the early strength.

    It is tricky out there, so stay flexible.
  • ABC News is reporting that French fighter jets shot down a Libyan warplane as Gadhafi violates no fly zone
  • Green Mtn Coffee: UBS out cautious on GMCR; says SBUX Courtesy deal raises some questions
  • USGS reports 7.0 magnitude quake near Myanmar
  • Hommikul oli juttu uuest mobiilipõhisest sotsiaalvõrgustikust Color ja nüüd on Buiness Insider seda ka juba testinud. Veebilehel võib lugeda ka nende kommentaare koos illustreeriva materjaliga. Etteruttavalt võib öelda, et Business Insider esimese tutvuse järel Color`st just kiljuvas vaimustuses pole.
  • The Fed purchased $6.99 bln of 2013-2015 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $27.26 bln
  • Nagu näha allolevalt graafikult sai AMZN call täna piisavalt tähelepanu ning on pakkunud turuosalistele ilusa liikumise. AMZN avanes $168,21 pealt ning peale avanemist tuli hetkeks tagasi $167,50 kanti ning sealt alates on aktsia ülespoole liikunud ja kaupleb hetkel $170,80 kandis ehk 3,3% plusspoolel.

  • Fitch downgrades Portugal to 'A-' from 'A+'
  • Citigroupi US macro suprise indeksilt on hästi näha, kuidas viimased pool aastat on suutnud makrouudised investoreid positiivselt üllatada (siit huvitav vaadata, kas makro suudab endiselt ootusi võimsalt ületada või on need liiga kõrged?):
  • Sentiment turgudel on nädalaga märgatavalt positiivsemaks muutunud (link):

    This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:
    • Bullish: 37.7%, up 9.2 percentage points
    • Neutral: 27.3% down 4.1 percentage points
    • Bearish: 35.0%, down 5.2 percentage points

    Historical averages:
    • Bullish: 39%
    • Neutral: 31%
    • Bearish: 30%

  • Täna on lõppemas ka Drugstore.com (DSCM) saaga - ettevõte, mida LHV foorumite väga pikaajalised lugejad veel mäletama peaksid. Drugstore.com sai Walgreenilt $3.80lise ülevõtupakkumise - eilse sulgemishinna suhtes tähendas see 112%list preemiat ning tehing sulgub juunikuu lõpus.
  • Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold press briefings four times per year to present the FOMC's current economic projectionsl; will be held at 2:15 p.m
  • Research In Motion prelim $1.78 vs $1.76 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $5.6 bln vs $5.64 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
    Research In Motion sees Q1 $1.47-1.55 vs $1.65 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees revs $5.2-5.6 bln vs $5.64 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
    RIMM tulemustega väljas, mis ootustele vastavad, aga pettumiseks firma prognoos järgmiseks kvartaliks, mis konsensuse ootustest madalam.
    Hetkel kaupleb RIMM järelturul $59,00 kandis, 5% miinuspoolel.

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