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Börsipäev 25. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Ei Portugali valitsuse lagunemine, Moody’se downgrade ja ega ka täna hommikune S&P poolne krediidireitingu langetamine kahe pügala võrra pole suutnud ära rikkuda turgudel valitsevat positiivset sentimenti. Aasia indeksid on üksmeelselt kõrgemal kauplemas ning olulisemate USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad praegusel tunnil samuti 0,3% võrra plusspoolel.

    Põhitähelepanu saab täna koonduma käimasolevale EL-i kohtumisele. Makrouudistest võiks huvi pakkuda Saksamaa IFO indeksid (kell 11.00), USA neljanda kvartali revideeritud SKT näit (14.30) ja Michigani tarbijasentimendi indeks (kell 15.55).
  • Allolevalt Morgan Stanley graafikult on näha, et EUR kipub ignoreerima riigireitingute alandamisi, välja arvatud juhtudel, kus hirm võlakriisi pärast on suurem: näiteks Kreeka päästmine mullu mais ja Iirimaa abistamine eelmise aasta novembris. Vaatamata mitmete perifeeriariikide kõrgetele CDS-idele on Hispaania vastav näitaja allapoole tulnud ja seega on Hispaania krediidireitingu langetamine üks potentsiaalne sündmus, mille peale võiks EUR nõrgeneda. Pikemas perspektiivis on MS euro suhtes positiivselt meelestatud, seda eelkõige euroala suhteliselt parema majandusliku väljavaate, kõrgema inflatsioonitaseme ja normaliseeruva rahapoliitika pärast, mis on kontrastiks USD-ile.
    A risk is that the increased global uncertainty and any sovereign discord may delay the ECB move; this would weigh on EUR more than expected. Until such time as the Federal Reserve is able to begin to normalise US monetary policy, it is likely to be the case that the EUR can outperform. We do not anticipate this until 2012.
  • Millise sümboliga kaupleb hõbe? Kullal on gld.
  • Populaarseimaks hõbeda ETF-iks on SLV
  • Saksamaa ettevõtete hinnang jooksvale ärikliimale oli märtsis 115,8 vs oodatud 114.6 ning hinnang ettevaatavale perioodile 106,5 vs konsensuse prognoositud 106,8 punkti.

    Euro selle peale erilist reaktsiooni ei näita ning kaupleb dollari vastu 0,13% miinuses @ $1,4155
  • Marek9: ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ).
  • WSJ vahendusel uudis, mille kohaselt IMF taaskäivitab New Arrangement to Borrow (NAB) programmi. NAB aktiveeriti uute võimalike laenutaotlustega toimetulemiseks ja sellega laiendati IMFi laenuprogrammide suurust mitmesaja miljardi USA dollari võrra. Programmi ühe eesmärgina on ära toodud ka olukord, mis võib ohtu seada rahvusvahelise rahandussüsteemi.
    The resource pool, the IMF says, is "to forestall or cope with an impairment of the international monetary system or to deal with an exceptional situation that poses a threat to the stability of that system."

    The IMF board last year boosted the NAB pool by about $580 billion, largely by adding several emerging markets to the countries that provide the money. The board fully ratified the new facility early in March. The last time the NAB was activated was for Brazil in 1998. But the IMF recently changed the way the facility is accessed by reviewing activation every six months, now no longer on a case-by case basis.

    The person familiar with the matter said that the aid fund could also be tapped for a potential increase in the loan amount for Greece, in addition to extending Athens's repayment schedule, as some officials in Europe are concerned that it's not credible enough. Also, other peripheral countries may need IMF help and the fund will want to assure markets that it has the firepower to handle even a core European country, such as Spain or Italy, in a worst-case scenario.
  • Portugali 2-aastase võlakirja tulusus kerkis esimest korda alates 1999. aastast 7% peale.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ATEA +52.5%, BSPM +19.4%, BODY +12.2% (also target raised to $25 from $20 at Oppenheimer), ACN +5.3%, WTSLA +5.1%, ORCL +4.5% (also raises qrtrly dividend).

    M&A news: ENP +3.9% (light volume, announces co received a proposal from Vanguard Natural Resources whereby VNR would acquire all of the outstanding, publicly-held co common units VNR does not already own through a unit-for-unit exchange).

    Other news: CRYP +24% (appoints Deloitte Corporate Finance to assist it with a strategic review of the co), THQI +7.8% (announces estimated Global Homefront sell-through of over 1 mln units, on 2.4 mln units shipped to date), COO +6.2% (will replace Edwards Lifesciences in the S&P MidCap 400 index), GLNG +3.8% (still checking), EW +3.3% (will replace Qwest Communications International in the S&P 500 index, upgraded to Buy from Accumulate at Madison Williams), EBIX +2.4% (responds to stock price drop; states that it is not aware of any negative developments within co or in its operations that would warrant a sudden drop in price ), GOLD +1.3% (still checking), ENB +1.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CEPH +1.1% (Cephalon wins FENTORA patent suit against Watson).

    Analyst comments: ALTR +2.8% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), AKAM +2.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), IMAX +2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord), SAP +1.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC Securities), LVS +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS ), PCLN +1.1% (target raised to $610 from $575 at Citigroup).
  • Q4 GDP- Third Estimate +3.1% vs +2.9% Briefing.com consensus; Second Estimate +2.8%
  • Citi tõstab täna Priceline.Com hinnasihti $575 pealt $610 peale samal ajal kinnitades ka oma „osta“ soovitust.

    PCLN on üks neist vähestest aktsiatest, mis pole investoritele kordagi pettumust valmistanud, sest firma on viimased 19 järjestikust kvartalit ületanud konsensuse ootusi.
    Citi analüütikud usuvad, et aktsial on tõusuruumi veel ligi 30% ning põhjendavad oma otsust järgnevalt:

    1) Regional Rollout Analysis Reveals Path To Bookings Upside – Based on PCLN public disclosures & our Geographic Market work, we have developed a Regional (Europe, North America, APAC, LatAm) Rollout of PCLN’s Bookings. With PCLN rapidly mix-shifting to faster growth markets (PCLN Europe 40%+ growth in ’11, APAC 100%+, LatAm 200%+), the upshot is that PCLN’s l-t growth is stronger than we had assumed. We have increased our ’12 Bookings by $2B.
    2) Specific Signs Of APAC Traction For PCLN -- (i) Continued strong Web traffic growth -- Priceline (Agoda & Booking.com) ranks as the 4th largest APAC OTA in terms of unique visitors; (ii) Relatively robust level of relevance across most key APAC countries with either Agoda or Booking.com showing up about 60% of the time in top 10 Organic Search results (among 220 search queries across 11 countries); and (iii) High level of marketing presence with either Agoda or Booking.com showing up about 87% of the time in top 10 Paid Search results.
    3) Near Term, Q1 Web Traffic & Online Spend Trends Appear Generally Positive For PCLN – While U.S. Web Traffic trends have been weak/negative for Priceline, the more material Europe and Asia Web Traffic trends have been strong/positive for Priceline – both indicating an acceleration vs. Q4.


    Analüütikud usuvad, et firma kasvutempo on isegi kiirem, kui siiani arvatud ning kuigi USA-s on veebis aktiivsus nõrk, väga tugevat positiivset trendi näitab Euroopa ja Aasia.

    Uue $610 hinnasihi näol on tegemist ka street high`ga.
    Hetkel kaupleb PCLN aktsia 1,5% plusspoolel, $481,00 kandis.


  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RIMM -11.5% (also downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank), JRJC -11.4%, SMOD -4.5% (light volume), DRI -1.1%.

    A few Japan names under pressure: HIT -4%, HMC -3.2%, CAJ -3.8%, MTU -1.2%.

    Other news: HDY -16.8% (prices 25 mln shares of common stock at $5.00), PRKR -6.1% (signs purchase agreement for common stock and warrants; net proceeds of ~$4.14 mln), ACTG -4.9% (announces public equity offering of 5 mln shares of its stock), RSO -3.4% (offering 6.0 mln shares of common stock), PANL -3.1% (prices 5 mln shares of common stock at $46.00 ), DYN -3% (Huntington Ingalls Industries will replace Dynegy in the S&P MidCap 400), END -2.2% (upsizes offering by 2 mln shares and prices 10 mln shares of common stock at $11 per share), SANM -1.7% (Cramer makes cautious comments on MadMoney), AH -1.6% (prices 6.5 mln shares of common stock at $23.50 by selling shareholders), DVN -1.4% (ticking lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), BP -1.3% (AAR puts out press release welcoming arbitration hearing on BP-Rosneft deal), CS -1.1% (co may bid for Maiden Lane MBS portfolio), NFLX -1.1% ( under pressure following reports that Liberty Media's Starz will incorporate 90-day delay for its original series content), BHP -0.8% (discloses approval of a $400 mln investment to expand Hunter Valley Energy Coal; discloses approval of $7.4 bln of capital investment to continue production growth in co's Western Australia Iron Ore operations).

    Analyst comments: HMY -2.7% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at HSBC Securities), ADM -1.2% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital), SAI -0.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), URBN -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney).
  • Tänasest saab Apple`i iPAD2 osta ka väljaspool USA ning Business Insideri vahendusel võib lugeda, et uue tahvelarvuti vastu on inimeste huvi mujal maailmas sama suur kui see oli USA-s. BI kodulehelt võib näha, et Apple`i poe ukse taha on moodustunud pikad järjekorrad nii UK-s kui ka Austraalias.
  • No Rest for the Weary
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/25/2011 9:04 AM EDT

    "If the odds are a million to one against something occurring, chances are 50-50 it will."

    --Unknown

    Once again, the indications are for a strong open even though there isn't any obvious positive news. Portuguese debt was downgraded, but the market is yawning at that problem. The market seems to have embraced the idea that Europe is finally making some progress in dealing with its debt issues and that is what's supporting the recent move.

    Whatever the justification might be for recent strength, it puts us in a position where we have an oversold bounce that just keeps going, even though we are technically extended and running into overhead resistance. These V-shaped bounces have confounded market players for much of the rally over the last two years.

    What is unusual about this action isn't that we are going up but that we do so in such an unrelenting manner. We don't hesitate at all and that causes painful short squeezes for the bears and great anxiety for underinvested bulls. They want to jump in but the market doesn't accommodate them with some minor pullbacks or flat action along the way. It goes straight up again without a rest.

    Action of this sort has the capacity to cause some major problems for bulls if it fizzles out as more and more market players embrace the positive action. It is when bounces like this fail that we can see some very sudden spikes to the downside and all the newly minted bulls rush for the sidelines again. That hasn't happened that often over the past two years, so buyers just keep on coming with renewed confidence when the market goes straight up like this.

    The dilemma is to decide whether or not to embrace the likelihood of another V-ish bounce -- although they are technically suspect. A V-ish bounce is generally not a smart bet, but there is no question that chasing them has worked well for quite some time. Logically, they shouldn't work that well. When a market breaks down, it creates a supply of trapped bulls and more aggressive bears. Those folks are generally inclined to sell into bounces, which is why we don't go straight back up. For some reason, that hasn't applied to this market, perhaps because of computerized trading or liquidity created by the Fed. Whatever the reason, there has been a stunning number of straight-up moves following technical breakdowns.

    What is particularly interesting right now is that there isn't so obvious a piece of positive news that the bulls are using to justify their buying. We still have oil hovering around $105, a horrible housing market, mediocre unemployment, European debt issues, major destruction in Japan and conflict in the Middle East. Seasonality turns negative as well, but the end of the quarter is fast approaching and that can provide some window-dressing action.

    This can be a very tricky environment to navigate, especially if you are inclined to call market turns. The serial-top callers have consistently been killed by these V-ish bounces, but it isn't at all hard to understand why they keep trying,

    My approach is to keep looking for new buys but flip into strength and then look to reload if we keep going. It leaves me underinvested to some degree, but that is justified given the risk that a bounce might actually fail. The most important thing is to avoid trying to fade the action until there actually is a change in the character. I want to react quickly rather than try to anticipate.

    We have a peppy open once again. The bears were able to fade a similar open for an hour or so Thursday before we went straight up. I'm looking for the sellers to hit the open again but the dip buyers have been regaining their composure and are going to give it another try as well.
  • March Michigan Sentiment- Final 67.5; prelim 68.2
  • Tere Nelli,
    Milline oleks sinu lühiajaline nägemus FFIV osas (seoses ORCL eilse positiivse tulemuse taustal).
    FFIV tunduv üsna ülemüüdud hetkel.
  • Austraalia dollar kauplemas $1,0276 tasemel - uus kõikide aegade tipp.
  • to Pariton: FFIV puhul mängis suurt rolli asjaolu, et konsenuse ootused firma puhul olid äärmiselt kõrged ning seetõttu sattus firma aktsia ka alates jaanuari lõpust suure müügisurve alla, mis omakorda ei tähenda, et ettevõtte fundamentaalsed näitajad või perspektiiv seetõttu oluliselt halvenenud oleks. Minu isiklik arvamus on, et cloud computing on teema, mis muutub tulevikus aina aktuaalsemaks ning konkreetselt FFIV puhul usun, et konservatiivsemate ootuste taustal võib ettevõte aasta teises pooles taas positiivselt üllatada.
  • Seagate Tech (STX) trades up on higher volume following renewed takeover chatter
  • Austraalia dollar on eelmise nädala kolmapäevast tõusnud USA dollari vastu ligi 600 punkti ehk üle 6%. Uus tipp hetkeseisuga $1,0293.
  • Chicago Fed President Evans says 'don't see as many needs for a further amount, as I probably thought last fall'; states need to follow through on current program
  • VIX on 7 päevaga teinud läbi suurima kukkumise läbi ajaloo. 30 punkti juurest on jõutud turgude ralli najal tagasi 17 punkti peale.
  • Iridium Communications (IRDM) pops on heavy volume, strength attributed to renewed takeover chatter
  • Kolmapäeval kirjutasin artikli "Kohvi võidukäik Hiinas", kus rääkisin lähemalt ka Starbucks (SBUX)-st ning tänasest Business Insiderist võib firma kohta mitmesugusied huvitavaid fakte veelgi teada saada. Kas teie näiteks teadsite, et Starbucksist võib osta 87 000 erineva kombinatsiooniga jooki? Lisaks saab lugeda siit.

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