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Börsipäev 30. märts

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  • USA börsid tõusid eile seitsmendat päeva viimase üheksa sessiooni jooksul, kuid sarnaselt esmaspäevale, mil NYSE-l vahetas omanikku ligi 3,3 miljardit aktsiat (madalaim päevane käive sel aastal), jäi ka teisipäevane volume oluliselt tagasihoidlikumaks võrreldes eelnevate kuude keskmisega (4,5 miljardit aktsiat). USA on toetamas taaskord üsna positiivset sentimenti Aasias, seda eesotsas Jaapaniga, kus Nikkei tugevnes 2.6%. Hiina aga näitab tagasihoidlikumat tõusu, kuna arvatakse, et keskpank kavatseb enne järgmise nädala pühasid intressimäärasid tõsta.

    Reedese tööjõuraporti ootuses jälgitakse täna huviga ADP tööhõive küsitlust (15.15), mis eelmisel kuul ennustas üsna täpselt NFP numbrit, kuid samas osutus detsembris ja jaanuaris selgelt optimistlikumaks. Konsensus ootab märtsis USA erasektoris loodud töökohtade arvuks 210K ehk veidi vähem võrreldes veebruari 217K-ga.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,4-0,5% plussis, Euroopa futuurid aga 0,8-0,9% kõrgemal.
  • Eile peale turge teatas S&P, et vahetab S&P 500 indeksis välja GENZ, mis on SNY poolt ülevõtu viimases faasis ja asendab GENZ-i sellise ettevõttega nagu BLK.

    Standard & Poor’s Announces Change to U.S. Index; BLK will join the S&P 500
    BlackRock Inc. (BLK) will replace Genzyme Corp. (GENZ) in the S&P 500 index after the close of trading on Friday, April 1, 2011. S&P Global 1200 constituent Sanofi-aventis (SNY) is acquiring Genzyme in a deal expected to be completed soon, pending final conditions.

    BLK sulgus $186.50 ja peale S&P teadet kauples järelturul $197 tasemel.
  • Cephalon reports that Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) proposes to acquire CEPH for $73 per share in cash
  • Mõni aeg tagasi sai Börsipäevas viidatud Portugali kohalikule lehele, kus käsitleti võimalust, et riigi mullust eelarvedefitsiiti võidakse kõrgemaks korrigeerida. Täna on sellest veidi pikemalt kirjutamas ka WSJ.
    The country's statistics office has been reviewing its 2010 accounts after the EU's Eurostat agency observed that Portugal hadn't included a €2 billion ($2.8 billion) cash injection into Banco Portugues de Negocios.
    The government could also have to recast about €500 million in loans to loss-making mass-transport companies, which are threatened with default and shouldn't be regarded as assets, according to the person.
    At risk now are the Portuguese government's expectations that the budget deficit for 2010 had been below its targeted 7.3% of gross domestic product. A person familiar with the accounts said if costs associated with Banco Portugues de Negocios are included, Portugal's budget gap for 2010 would then come above 8% of GDP.

    Portugal vajab üsna ulatuslikke kärpemeetmeid, et aasta lõpuks vähendada eelarvedefitsiiti 4,6%-ni SKT-st. Osalt selle tagajärjel ootab Portugali keskpank tänavuseks majanduslanguseks -1,4% ja 2012.a kasvuks kõigest 0,3%.
  • samal ajal aga Kreekas...
    The latest audit on Greek government accounts by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical service, has uncovered a new fiscal hole in the country’s social security funds.
    Eurostat officials, which have been in Athens since last week, found a 500 million euro deficit in the country’s pension funds, rather than 900 million euro surplus, as declared by Greek authorities.
    If the findings from the audit - which has yet to be completed - are confirmed then it is possible that Greece’s budget deficit may exceed the ten percent of gross domestic product for 2010.
    This in turn could mean that the government will be forced to introduce further belt tightening measures in an economy that was shrinking at an annual pace of 6.6 percent in the last quarter of 2010.
  • Eile sai teatavaks, et SEC on kinni pidanud ühe USA ravimiameti farmatseudi ning ta poja, keda süüdistatakse siseinfo kasutamises ning kes seeläbi teenisid $3,6 miljonit tulu. Cheng Yi Lang kasutuses oli avalikkusele mitte teadaolev info ravimiameti otsuste kohta ning tänu sellele õnnestus Langil nii vältida suuremaid kahjumeid kui ka teenida kasumit.
    Reutersis kirjutatakse, et antud juhtum õõnestab kahtlemata USA ravimiameti usaldusväärust, kuigi sarnaseid juhtumeid on FDA ajaloos olnud teisigi.
  • Vahelduseks ka makronäitajaid:

    Eurotsooni ärikliima indeks langes märtsis eelmise kuu üleskorrigeeritud 1,46 pealt 1,41 punktini (oodati 1,42).
    Eurotsooni tarbijausalduse indeks jäi märtsis muutumatuks -10,6 punkti peale.
    Euro kaupleb hetkel 0,25% madalamal $1,4075 tasemel.

    Šveitsi KOF juhtivindeks tõusis eelmise kuu 2,18 pealt 2,24 punktini, ületades seega ka oodatud 2,17 punkti.
    Šveitsi frank on viimase nädala jooksul USA dollari vastu tehtud rekordtasemetelt taandumas ja kaupleb täna 0,23% madalamal 0,9219 tasemel.
  • March ADP Employment Change 201K vs 210K Briefing.com consensus
    February ADP Employment Change revised to 208K from 217K
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OXM +15.6%, FDO +2.9%, PPG +2.3% (ticking higher), DMC +2.2%, (light volume).

    M&A news: CEPH +30.4% VRX +15.5% (Cephalon reports that Valeant Pharmaceuticals proposes to acquire CEPH for $73 per share in cash).

    Select European drug names showing strength: AZN +1.5%, GSK +1.1%, SNY +1.0%, MRK +0.5%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: HMY +3.7%, BBL +3.3%, RIO +2.7%, BHP +2.6%, GFI +2.0%, , SLV +0.9%, MT +0.8%.

    Other news: NLST +11.2% (awarded additional patents for HyperCloud memory innovations), HIT +7.7% (discloses agreement with Mitsubishi Electric Corporation and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to consolidate their hydroelectric power generation system operations), ISIG +7.1% (announced last night supplements special dividend information), ACHN +6.4% (reports positive RVR Results with ACH-1625 to treat chronic Hepatitis C), BLK +4.7% (will replace Genzyme in the S&P 500 index), MCP +2.5% (and DOE's Ames Laboratory sign cooperative research and development agreement on rare earth magnets), SOMX +2.2% (announces that the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office has issued U.S. patent no. 7,915,307, entitled "Methods of Improving the Pharmacokinetics of Doxepin"), SI +1.8% (boost from yesterday's news of unit spin-off), F +1.8% (still checking), NG +0.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: PM +2.4% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman), CVVT +2.0% (ticking higher, initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities), CSCO +1.1% (initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee), APOL +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), HPQ +0.9% (initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee), AAPL +0.6% (coverage transferred, Buy rating maintained at Sterne Agee).
  • Kriisi järel on palju kõneainet pakkunud küsimus, millal pangad taas laenukraanid lahti keeravad? Morgan Stanley toob oma väraskes Euroopa pangade analüüsis esile, kuidas finants- ja kinnisvarakriiside järel möödub tavaliselt enne aastaid, kui pangad taas julgemalt laenama hakkavad:

  • JMP Securities alustab täna China Valves Technology (CVVT) katmist.
    JMP soovitab CVVT osta koos $9 hinnasihiga.


    CVVT on Hiina suurim erakätes olev tööstuslike klappide tootja

    • A market leader strategically positioned to capitalize on mounting market demand. We expect China's infrastructure developments will remain vibrant in 2011-2015, as outlined in the "twelfth five- year" plan. Accelerated valves localization is driving mounting market demand for sophisticated, high- performance industrial valves that China Valves can provide with limited competition.

    Analüütikute sõnul on CVVT heal strateegilisel positsioonil vastamaks turu nõudlusele ning firma on võimeline pakkuma keerulisi ja kõrge kvaliteediga tööstuslikke klappe ilma olulise konkurentsita.

    Advanced technology, enhanced operating efficiency, and expansion into the new, lucrative markets to drive profitability. CVVT's operating efficiency improved further post integration of three recent acquisitions, and its market opportunities are further fortified after passing all inspections required for a certified core-island nuclear power valves supplier. CVVT is also taking shares from the imported premium valves given its superior product quality and comprehensive product portfolio. We expect these positive developments to continue to add to its profitability, alleviating the impact from a potential less favorable sales mix and an elevated cost structure implied by its 2011 guidance.

    Analüütikute arvates tõstab firma kasumlikkust kaasaegne tehnoloogia, äritegevuse efektiivsuse tõhustamine ning laienemine uutele turgudele. Lisaks eelnevale võtab firma oma osa ära ka importkaubalt, kuna CVVT- on kvaliteetne ning terviklik tootevalik. Analüütikud usuvad, et nimetatud näitajad soodustavad positiivse arengu jätkumist ning ühtlasi leevendavad ka 2011. aastaks antud nõrka prognoosi, kus viidati kulude suurenemisele.

    • Improving accounting practices and internal controls. CVVT continues to make progress in governance improvement and auditor upgrade and was recently awarded an AAA credit rating, one of only seven awardees in China, which we believe should help boost investors' confidence in CVVT.

    Analüütikute arvates peaks investorite usaldust tõstma ka jätkuvalt paranevad raamatupidamistavad ning tõhusam sisekontroll. CVVT teeb selles vallas pidevalt edusamme ning sai hiljuti ka AAA krediidireitingu, mida on Hiinas välja antud ainult seitse.

    • Compelling valuation. Shares of CVVT are currently trading at merely 3.6x and 2.8x our 2011 and 2012 EPS estimates, respectively. Shares are also significantly discounted in terms of P/B and EV/EBITDA. Although the somewhat disappointed guidance on profit margin and kontingent uncertainty may serve to limit its shares' appreciation in the near run until the Big 4 auditors officially sign off, we believe the upgrade is just a matter of time and that current prices have reflected most of the underlying uncertainty. With record orders in backlog, we believe CVVT is strategically positioned for continuous growth along with improving governance and therefore warrants upward revaluations to properly reflect its industry-leading position.

    Analüütikute peavad ka aktsia valuatsiooni atraktiivseks ning vaatamata hiljutisele nõrgale prognoosile usuvad nad, et antud hinnatasemesse on investorite ebakindlus juba sisse arvestatud. Rekordiliselt hea tellimuste mahuga usuvad analüütikud, et firma positiivne areng jätkub.

    Nii nagu mitmed teised Hiina firmad on ka CVVT olnud viimasel ajal turuosaliste tule all, kuna Hiina raamatupidamistavad erinevad paljuski Läänes kasutusel olevatest reeglitest ning kahjuks on mitmete firmade puhul ilmnenud ka tõsiasi, et tegemist on pettusega. Nagu öeldud pole CVVT-l samuti õnnestunud süüdistustest kõrvale jääda ning selle tõttu on aktsia olnud ka tugeva müügisurve all. Tänane JMP call meenutab natuke Global Hunteri CCME calli, mis too päev sai üsna palju tähelepanu, aga paraku on tänaseks päevaks siiski selgunud, et CCME tegevuses on leitud tõsiseid vasturääkivusi ning aktsiaga on juba mitu nädalat kauplemine peatatud. Tulles tagasi CVVT juurde, siis tõenäoliselt saab see täna tähelepanu, aga võttes arvesse konteksti , siis tasub turuosalistel meeles pidada, et tegemist väga riskantse aktsiaga.

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ZZ -8.3%, ZOOM -6.3%, SIG -1.1%, TIBX -0.8%.

    Other news: UTA -22.1% (announced that it has postponed its year 2010 earnings conference call previously scheduled for March 30, 2011 at 09:00 a.m. EDT to a later day in 2011 to be determined), HRZ -7.4% (continued weakness), VVTV -7.4% (announces public offering of common stock), IRE -5.5% (under modest pressure on reports that the govt may take controlling stake in company following stress tests), KRA -3.4% (commenced an public offering of 6 mln shares of its common stock), CEF -2.8% (plans to offer Class A Shares of Central Fund to the public in Canada and in the United States under its existing prospectus).

    Analyst comments: KSS -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; removed from Conviction Buy List), PVH -0.5% (downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman).
  • Morgan Stanley võtab täna Amazon (AMZN)-i oma RTI (Research Tactical Idea) nimekirja.
    Morgan Stanley kinnitab ühtlasi ka oma "osta" soovitust AMZN-le ning tõstab hinnasihi $225 pealt $290 peale.


    We believe the market is underestimating the positive share shift from specialty retail to Amazon. We highlight the $16.5B opportunity in U.S. retail book sales and the $103B opportunity in U.S. consumer electronics. We believe similar opportunities exist in Amazon’s largest international market over time.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et turg alahindab AMZN positiivset pööret turuosa võitmises ning rõhutab müügivõimalusi USA raamatu- ja elektroonikatoodete turul ning samasugused võimalused on analüütikute sõnul AMZN-le avanemas ka rahvusvahelistel turgudel.

    The events in Japan could cause 1Q / 2Q headwinds for Amazon's revenue. Investors should look past this as we believe the operating margin reset will be complete and see strong sales growth going forward. We believe Amazon will continue to benefit from market share gains in the book and consumer electronics categories.

    Analüütikud soovitavad investoritel võimalikest Jaapani sündmuste mõjudest ennast mitte liigselt heidutada lasta, selle kompenseerib tugev käibekasv.

    Tegemist pole küll reitingumuutusega, kuid $290 hinnasiht on new street high (endise $230 asemel) ja arvestades aktsia positiivset reageeringut William Blairi upgrade`le nädal aega tagasi usun, et investorite ostuhuvi võib täna saada jätku. Tähelepanu tuleks pöörata ka sellele, et antud call on turu suhtes üsna tundlik.

  • AMZN callis väike eksitus: Hinnasiht on Morgan Stanley-l $225, aga analüütikud ütlevad, et nende bull case koos $290 hinnasihiga hakkab juba ilmet võtma.

    We are reiterating our OW rating, increasing our price target to $225 and believe our $290 bull case is starting to play out.
  • Straight-Up Action Is Hard to Trade
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/30/2011 8:34 AM EDT

    If we are facing in the right direction, all we have to do is keep on walking.
    -- Buddhist proverb

    One thing this market has proved over and over again is how dangerous it is to try to anticipate a top. Once again we have a very strong gap-up opening brewing -- which isn't all that surprising, except for the fact that we have already gone straight up seven of the past nine days, ignoring bad news and technical resistance as if it didn't exist. A further extension mainly due to a weaker yen and better action in Japan isn't all that logical.

    This is the same sort of one-way action that marked the rally from the end of August 2010 to mid-February 2011. Other than a correction in November, there was very little ebb and flow. The dip-buyers would jump in on the slightest pullbacks, and we went up in almost a straight line. The action caused a lot of consternation, not just for the serial top-callers who were endless squeezed, but also for active traders who were constantly trying to stay ahead of a market that offered so few entry points. If you weren't willing to chase extended chart patterns, you ended up staying quite underinvested.

    Since the breakdown on the earthquake and nuclear issues in Japan, this market has acted in a similar fashion as it bounced. The negative news is now being totally ignored, higher crude oil doesn't matter, sovereign debt issues in Europe have had no impact and terrible housing news has been deemed irrelevant.

    Market players who were shaken out on the spate of bad news now see the market going right back up, and fear that they will be left behind has kicked in once again. Since the bottom in the market two years ago, it has been tremendously easy to be underinvested if you harbor any doubts at all. Buy-and-hold bullishness has worked, although most everyone you talk with has a very hard time reconciling the positive action on Wall Street with their view of the economic health of Main Street.

    Trying to make sense of this market has not been easy. In fact, if you think too hard, it is very easy to talk yourself out of some good trades. The way to deal with action is to stick with the uptrend as long as you possibly can and not try to call tops or reversals.

    Of course it is never as easy as it sounds, and even if you do stick with trends and avoid calling tops, you are likely to find yourself underinvested if you make sales into strength and resist buying extended charts. That's bound to happen if you have a disciplined trading methodology -- there isn't any way to avoid it unless you want to reinvent your trading approach.

    The strength this morning appears to be due mainly to a sharp pullback in the yen, which boosted Japanese stocks and spilled over to Europe. Also with the quarter quickly winding down, the window dressing pressures are at their peak, and that is likely helping as well.

    Watch for an intraday reversal. Keep your eyes on the early lows. If we breach them, there is danger that profit-taking will pick up ... but also keep in mind that we have a strong tendency to make first-hour lows and then trade higher the remainder of the day.

    The folks in the media love this straight-up action, but it is lot more challenging for the folks who have to actually trade it.
  • Healthstream (HSTM) acquires 50% Stake in Laerdal Medical's Advanced Video System; immediately accretive; raises FY rev guidance
    Tegemist õhukese aktsiaga.
  • IMF cuts U.S. GDP forecast to 2.8% from 3.0% for 2011
  • The Fed purchased $6.99 bln of 2013-2015 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $31.28
  • CVVT oli pettumus täna. Aktsia avanes $5,07 pealt ehk 11% ülevalt ning kui oleks võinud eeldada, et selliselt tasemelt tuleb aktsia peale avanemist korra alla ja põrkab uuesti üles tagasi, siis täna tuli CVVT alla küll, aga jäigi sinna. Ei oskagi seda millegi muuga seletada kui turuosaliste skeptismiga, mis osade Hiina aktsiate suhtes tekkinud on. Aktsia on jäänud kauplema $4,80 kanti ehk 4% plusspoole.

    Natuke paremini käitus küll AMZN, mis avanes $177,78 pealt ning liikus peale avanemist kiirelt peaaegu punkti üles ning hetkel on aktsia peale mõningaid sik-sakke tegemas uusi tippe ja kaupleb $179,90 kandis, 3% plusspoolel.



  • $29 bln 7-yr Note Auction Results: 2.895%; Bid/Cover 2.79x (Prior 2.86x, 10-auction avg 2.90x); Indirect Bidders 49.4% (Prior 49.7%, 10-auction avg 51.0%)
  • Wall Street Journal on välja toonud käesoleva aasta S&P 500 10 kõige paremini ja halvemini liikunud aktsiat.
    Suurima tõusu on 2011. aasta esimesel kvartalil läbi teinud nafta rafineerija Tesoro (TSO), mis on alates aasta algusest tõusnud 48% ( möödunud aastal tõsusis aktsia 100%) ning suurim kaotaja on Monster Worldwide (MWW), mille väärtus on kolme kuuga vähenenud 32%.

    Top 10 tõusjate hulka kuuluvad veel Micron Technology (MU), H&R Block (HRB), Big Lots (BIG), Marathon Oil (MRO), Helmerich & Payne (HP), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Netflix (NFLX) and CB Richard Ellis Group (CBRE).

    Top 10 langejad: AIG (AIG), Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK), F5 Networks (FFIV), Tellabs (TLAB), Frontier Communications (FTR), Akamai (AKAM) RadioShack (RSH), Target (TGT) and Carnival (CUK).

  • CoreLogicu hinnangul ulatus jaanuaris USA majade niinimetatud shadow inventory, mille all mõeldakse majasid, mille laenumaksed on hilinenud 90 päeva või enam või mis on laenuandjate poolt sundvõõrandatud, 1.8 miljoni majani. See tähendab ca üheksa kuu suurust varu, mis on samal tasemel eelmise aastaga. Antud näitaja lisandub ametlikult müügis olevate majade varule, mille suuruseks märtsis hindas National Association of Realtors 8.6 kuud.

    Alljärgnevalt on toodud graafik, kus on näha shadow inventory erinevate segmentide kuine varu. Punane ala on tõsises makseraskustes olevad majad (870 000 ühikut, 4.2 kuud), kollane ala sundvõõrandamisprotsessis olevad majad (445 000 ühikut, 2.1 kuud) ning roheline ala tähistab pankade poolt sundvõõrandatud majasid (470 000 ühikut, 2.2 kuud), mida ei ole veel müüki pandud. (link)
  • Mosaic prelim $1.21 vs $1.07 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $2.21 bln vs $2.34 bln Thomson Reuters consensus

    MOS tulemustega väljas, aktsia järelturul kauplemas $80,90 kandis, 1,8% plusspoolel.

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