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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 5. aprill

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Tööjõuraporti järgne liikumine on turgudel kujunenud võrdlemisi rahulikuks, kui Stoxx 600 lõpetas eile kõigest 0,1% kõrgemal ja S&P 500 sulgus nullis. Käive on aga börsidel jätkuvalt kokku kuivanud – NYSE esmaspäevase sessiooni käibeks kujunes kõigest 3,26 miljardit aktsiat, mis on madalaim alates aastavahetusest. Aasia indeksid on täna nädala tippudest madalamale tulnud, USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad hetkel 0,1-0,2% jagu punases.

    Makrouudistest võiksid Euroopa sessiooni ajal täna tähelepanu köita teenustesektori PMI indeksid (eurotsooni oma kl 11.00, Suurbritannia kell 11.30) ja eurotsooni veebruarikuu jaemüük (kl 12.00). USA poolel jälgitakse aga teenustesektori ISM indeksit (kl 17.00) ja FOMC märtsi protokolli (kl 21.00).
  • WSJ vahendusel võib lugeda, et Nasdaq OMX kavatseb rebalansseerida Nasdaq indeksi, mis tähendab seda, et hetkel indeksi liikumist väga tugevalt mõjutava Apple'i aktsia osakaal väheneb praeguselt 20% pealt mai esimeseks kauplemispäevaks 12% peale. Alloleval joonisel on ühtlasi ära toodud mõned ettevõtted, kes peaksid rebalansseerimisest kasu lõikama.

    Apple'i aktsia osakaalu vähendamine indeksis võib luua aga märkimisväärse müügisurve, kuna indeksit järgivad varahaldurid peavad tegema samasuguseid muudatusi.

    There are more than 2,900 financial products tracking the Nasdaq-100 in 27 countries, Nasdaq says. That includes the $24.4 billion PowerShares QQQ exchange-traded fund, which over the past year has been the sixth most actively traded stock on U.S. exchanges.
  • Moody's downgrades Portugal's bond rating to Baa1 vs A3
  • Erko poolt välja toodud Nasdaqi indeksis plaanitavate muudatuste taustal võiks meenutada ka Citigroupi hiljutist 10:1 reverse splitti, mille tagajärjel võib kogu USA aktsiatega kauplemise käive langeda kuni 5% (vastavalt Rosenblatt Securities hinnangule).
    The effect of Citigroup to effect a 10:1 reverse split of its shares "could erase approximately 5 percent of total U.S. equity volume,'' according to Rosenblatt Securities.

    Trading in Citigroup shares has soared since the credit crisis of September 2008, because of their low price and wide availability. This has made it a perfect profit vehicle for high-frequency traders and other firms which use electronic trading strategies. In April of last year, for instance, 902 million shares of Citigroup stock traded daily, acccording to Schack and Rosenblatt. This amounted to 10.99 percent of all U.S. equity volume.

    The reverse split could also depress trading in options. Options contracts on Citigroup generated at least 2 percent of U.S. volume in 17 of the 18 months following November 2008. In eight of those months, Citigroup accounted for 5 percent of the volume.
  • Portugali viie aastase võlakirja yield on nüüdseks jõudnud juba ligi 10% juurde ehk kõrgemale kui Iirimaa oma, mil viimast mullu novembris päästeti. FT kohaselt seisab Portugalil järjekordne test ees kolmapäeval, mil oksjonile pannakse 2 miljardi euro ulatuses lühiajalisi võlakirju, ent sarnaselt möödunud reedele võidakse selgi korral nõudlust garanteerida ostjate eelneva otsimise teel.
  • Eurotsooni märtsikuu teenustesektori PMI 57,2 vs oodatud 56,9 (veebruar samuti 56,9)

    EUR/USD erilist reaktsiooni selle peale ei näita ning jätkab kauplemist 0,25% punases @1,418 USD
  • Marc Faberiga üks värskem intervjuu, kus ta räägib USA fiskaal- ja rahapoliitikast ning peatub pikemalt ka Mehhiko majandusel
  • Suurbritannia teenuste PMI prognoositust parem: 57,1 vs oodatud 52,6. GBP on selle peale dollari suhtes tugevnenud 0,55%, liikudes hetkel tasemel $1,6220
  • Eurotsooni jaemüügi kasvutempo pidurdus veebruaris veõrreldes jaanuariga, kui aastaseks kasvuks kujunes +0,1% vs prognoositud +0,6% (jaanuaris +0,75)
  • Hiinalt ilmselt juba üsna oodatud intressimäära tõstmine
    China raises 1-yr deposit rate and 1-yr lending rate by 25bps; effective 4/6
  • Hiina intressimäära tõstmine on USA dollarile tuge pakkumas; USD kaupleb hetkel valdavalt plusspoolel:

    AUDUSD -0,59% (1,0301); EURUSD -0,34% (1,4170); GBPUSD +0,64% (1,6230); NZDUSD +0,04% (0,7683); USDCAD +0,03% (0,9670); USDCHF +0,08% (0,9236); USDJPY +0,33% (84,32).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: QCOR +18%, SCHN +1.5%.

    M&A news: NSM +71.8% (National Semi to be acquired by Texas Instruments for for $25 per share in an all-cash transaction of about $6.5 billion).

    Semis and tech names getting boost following NSM/TXN merger news: ISIL +7.3%, MRVL +3.7% (resumed with Buy at Kaufman), ONNN +3.4%, TSEM +2.8%, TSM +2.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), STM +2.4%, BRCM +2.4% (resumed with Buy at Kaufman), MXIM +2.3, SMH +2.2%, UMC +2.2%, MU +1.9%, NVDA +1.8% (named Bob Worrall, a Sun Microsystems executive, as its Chief Information Officer), ADI +1.3% (upgraded to Hold at Auriga U.S.A), LLTC +1% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Auriga).

    A few European drug names trading modestly higher: NVS +1.0%, GSK +0.9%.

    Other news: NAVR +20.9% (announces sale of FUNimation Entertainment for $24 mln), CBST +15.4% (settles CUBICIN patent litigation with Teva (TEVA); Teva may launch its generic daptomycin product in the U.S. on June 24, 2018; upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird), PPHM +8.2% (PS-targeting antibody significantly improves anti-tumor effect of Sorafenib in models of advanced liver cancer), IVAN +6.5% (Xu-5 zone at Zitong-1 flows gas at significant pressure), JASO +2.3% (announces strategic partnership with Jabil), EXPE +1.6% (American Airlines and Expedia reach distribution agreement), FOSL +0.7% (ticking higher, Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: CTRP +2.2% (upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna), CSCO +1.4% (reinstated with a Neutral at Gleacher), INTC +1.1% (resumed with Buy at Kaufman), JNPR +0.9% (reinstated with a Buy at Gleacher), COP +0.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan).
  • Merrill Lynch on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Ciena (CIEN) kohta.
    Merrill Lynch tõstab CIEN reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ ja hinnasihi $26 pealt $34 peale.


    In summary, we believe we are in the early stages of a multi-year spending cycle in optical, after two years of declines, and the proliferation of OTN technology at the core of the network. We see Ciena as being uniquely positioned, leading with 40/100G deployments and the 5430 OTN switch. Our note discusses the proposed architectures of Verizon and AT&T networks, where we see a strong position for Ciena.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et peale kahte aastat langust oleme me seismas uue mitme aasta pikkuse investeerimistsükliga optiliste seadmete turul.

    Concerns over product mix in the stock
    A few months ago we downgraded Ciena’s stock on fears of near term headwinds and heated expectations. While our thesis proved right, the stock was able to shrug off the pressure in a few short weeks. We think the stock is now at a more attractive point, with near term expectations adequately low. Last quarter gross margin of ~41.8% is a five year low, and should improve to 43-44% on growth of line card sales, higher margin CESD switching and sales of OTN switch. We also expect revenue growth momentum to improve in 2H2010, as Tier 1 carriers start adopting the new optical technologies.


    Mõned kuud tagasi alandasid analüütikud CIEN reitingut liiga kõrgete ootuste ning võimalike mõõnade tõttu. Aktsia pidas müügisurvele siiski üsna hästi vastu ja nüüd on analüütikute arvates palju parema hinnatasemega ning ootused on toodud madalamale. Ühtlasi usuvad analüütikud, et käive peaks samuti tõusma, kuna suured telekomid (T, VZ) peaks aasta teises pooles hakkama kasutusele võtma uut tehnoloogiat.

    Mitmed CIEN konkurendid on olnud viimasel ajal korraliku müügisurve all (FNSR,JDSU), aga CIEN-i suhtes on konsensus muutumas aina positiivsemaks ja täna on ka Merrill Lynch väljas ostusoovitusega ning prognoosib uue investeerimistsükli algust sektoris. Tegemist pole väga tugeva calliga, aga turu toetusel võib aktsia täna ostuhuvi näha.

    Eelturul kaupleb aktsia $25,70 kandis, 2,5% plusspoolel.

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LEDS -19.4%, TISI -8.1%, PSEC -7% (also priced its public offering of 9 mln shares of common stock, co has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1.35 mln shares of common stock), KBH -5.7%.

    M&A news: TXN -2.4% (National Semi to be acquired by Texas Instruments for for $25 per share in an all-cash transaction of about $6.5 billion).

    Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -12.7%, AIB -9.7%, STD -2.9%, DB -1.7%, CS -1%.

    Select Japan related names showing early weakness: CAJ -2.8%, HMC -2.8%, TM -2.4% (may shut down North American operations due to parts shortage), HIT -2.0%, SNE -1.1%,

    LED related names under pressure followng LEDS earnings/guidance: CREE -4.6%, AIXG -2.2%, VECO -1%.

    Other news: DGW -11.0% (announces pending management transition), CBEH -6.8% (Announces Independent Third Party Investigation), KYN -5.5% (announces public offering of 5.7 mln shares of common stock), TGP -4.2% (announces public offering of 3.7 mln common shares), AAPL -1.8% (Nasdaq confirms that the NASDAQ-100 Index will undergo special rebalance; will reduce AAPL weight by 8.16% to 12.33%), AVL -1.4% (provides progress report on metallurgical testwork, Nechalacho rare earth elements deposit, Thor Lake, Northwest territories, Canada), IL -1.3% (announces proposed public offering of 1.5 mln shares common stock), PHYS -1.3% (announces follow-on offering of trust units in an aggregate amount of up to $340 mln).

    Analyst comments: OXY -1% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital), MAR -0.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus).
  • Be Prepared
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/5/2011 8:37 AM EDT

    "Before everything else, getting ready is the secret of success."
    --Henry Ford

    Despite low volume and the inability to gain further traction intraday, the major indices continue to hold up extremely well. There are plenty of reason why we should see a pullback, but there is stubborn underlying support preventing the bears from digging in their claws.

    We continue to be in a precarious technical position, but the worst thing you can do in this market is to anticipate weakness. The bears have been trying for weeks now to kill this bounce after the breakdown in mid-March but have had no success, although conditions have been ripe for a while for at least one pretty good bout of selling.

    Technically we are still overbought, but what makes it even worse is that we have had extremely light volume recently. It isn't as if institutional buyers are rushing in to build their long positions. We just have very tenacious underlying support. There is some good action in place and we have a few pockets of momentum here and there but not much leadership.

    This morning things become more complicated as a number of news items hit. Texas Instruments (TXN) is acquiring National Semiconductor (NSM) for a substantial premium, which many market commentators seem to think is far too high. That is giving chips a boost, and the sector needs it because it has been lagging the overall indices substantially. The optimistic view here is that the premium will help to increase multiples in the sector and cause some more acquisition interest. Having the chip sector perk up will definitely be a market positive but we'll see how this develops.

    The other news this morning is that China is raising interest rates again to help cool off its hot economy. These hikes haven't had any lasting impact on Chinese stocks over the last year but they do tend to cause some short-term pressure. Watch natural resources in particular, which may see some impact on fears that China's buying may slow.

    Probably the main thing pressuring the market this morning is the rebalancing of the Nasdaq 100. Apple (AAPL) , which has had a weighting of over 20%, is being reduced to 12.3%. This means index funds need to unload a huge number of shares, and that is pushing the stock down substantially. Other stocks, like Intel (INTC) , Cisco (CSCO) , Oracle (ORCL) and Yahoo! (YHOO) are being increased, however, so they are helping to offset some of that weakness. A full report on the rebalancing can be found here.

    So we have plenty of news to contend with this morning, and the big question remains whether it is finally going to be the catalyst that causes this market to correct a bit. The negative news flow simply hasn't mattered much and, as I wrote yesterday, it doesn't matter until it matters.

    The way to deal with this sort of market is to play the long side and don't be overly anticipatory. On the other hand, given the current conditions, you have to be ready to turn defensive very quickly should the mood finally start to shift.

    At the time of publication, James "Rev Shark" DePorre had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
  • March ISM Services 57.3 vs 59.5 Briefing.com consensus; February 59.7
  • Portugali 5-aastase võlakirja tulusus ületas 10% piiri. Eurot see väga ei heiduta, olles kogu päeva languse tagasi teinud ja kaupleb hetkel avanemistaseme $1,4210 juures.
  • The Fed purchased $7.57 bln of 2018-2021 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $26.79 bln
  • Tunnistan, et CIEN puhul täna sellises ulatuses liikumist ei oodanud - alahindasin asjaolu, et analüütikud andsid positiivse prongonoosi kogu sektori kohta. Aktsia avanes $25,75 pealt ning on alates avanemist üsna sujuvas tempos ülespoole liikunud ning kaupleb hetkel $27,35 kandis ehk 9,1% plusspoolel.

  • Vabariiklased plaanivad järgmise kümnendi jooksul vähendada USA eelarvedefitsiiti 3/4 ehk kulutusi vähendatakse plaani kohaselt $6 triljonit ning maksud (ettevõtlus kui ka tulumaks) jäetakse maksimum 25% tasemele. Tuleval aastal tahavad vabariiklased eelarvedefitsiiti vähendada $995 miljardi võrra ehk $1.4 triljonile. Aastaks 2018 on plaanitav defitsiit $379 miljardit. $6 triljonit saadakse sisuliselt Medicarei, Medicaidi, toidukupongide ja paljude muude programmide arvelt.
  • iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) moves higher to test the Jul. 2007 lifetime intraday highs @ 85.74; Current HoD now @ 85.73
  • Business Insideri vahendusel võib lugeda, et Forbes on välja selgitanud USA kõige parema mainega firma ja selleks on Amazon (AMZN), mis tänavu seljatas möödunud aasta esikoha omaniku Johnson&Johnson (JNJ)-i. Esiviisikusse mahuvad veel Kraft Foods, Johnson&Johnson, 3M ja Kellogs.
  • Rare earth turul hakkab varsti kitsamaks minema, kui under-supply asendub over-supply'ga. Selle uudise valguses tundub, et Vähi tegi Silmetiga õige lükke õigel ajal. Iseasi muidugi, mis tema MCP aktsiatest saab.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-04/kazakhstan-sees-800-million-investment-in-rare-earth-ventures.html

    MCP turuväärtus $5.4B ja müük $35M ja tohutult lootusi. Aga shortida ka ei julge, burning hot! :)
  • FOMC protokoll:

    "With longer-term inflation expectations remaining stable and measures of underlying inflation subdued, members anticipated that recent increases in the prices of energy and other commodities would result in only a transitory increase in headline inflation"

    "Given this economic outlook, the Committee agreed to continue to expand its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities as announced in November in order to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the Committee's mandate"

    "A few members noted that evidence of a stronger recovery, or of higher inflation or rising inflation expectations, could make it appropriate to reduce the pace or overall size of the purchase program. Several others indicated that they did not anticipate making adjustments to the program before its intended completion"

  • Speaker of the House John Boehner says conversations about the budget will continue; says country has a spending problem, not a revenue problem
  • Am Superconductor sees Q4 EPS, rev well below consensus; co says Sinovel refused to accept contracted shipment (24.88 +0.20)Co sees Q4 non-GAAP net loss vs $0.33 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs less than $42 mln vs $119.13 mln Thomson Reuters consensus.

    AMSC-lt päris kole kasumihoiatus ja aktsia reageerib ka vastavalt, kaubeldes järelturul 42% miinuses ($14,10)

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