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Börsipäev 11. aprill

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  • Pärast pikka debatti ning süvenevat hirmu, et töö USA riigiasutustes seiskub fiskaalaasta teise poole kinnitamata eelarve tõttu, kirjutas president Obama reede hilisõhtul lõpuks alla seadusele, mis näeb ette 38 miljardi dollari ulatuses eelarvelisi kärpeid. USA indeksite futuurid on näitamas seetõttu kerget plussi ning dollar taastunud euro suhtes pisut (EUR/USD -0,23% @1,445 USD). Väga kauaks Ühendriikide fiskaalpoliitika arenguid silmist ei lasta, sest fookus langeb nüüd riigi maksimaalse laenuvõime piiri tõstmisele, mis rahandusministeeriumi hinnangul saab täis mai keskpaigaks.

    Käesoleval nädalal annab Alcoa avapaugu esimese kvartali tulemustehooajale, raporteerides oma näitajad täna pärast turgu. Lisaks teatavad sel nädalal kvartalinumbrid veel näiteks JPMorgan (kolmapäeval), Google ja Hasbro (neljapäev). Bank of America ja Mattel (reede). Allolevalt graafikult võib aga näha, et aktiivsemat avaldamist näeme siiski alles järgmisest nädalast.

    Olulisi makrouudiseid täna oodata pole.

  • Nädalavahetusel otsustasid Islandi elanikud teist korda tagasi lükata referendumile pandud ettepaneku kompenseerida Islandi panga pankroti näol tekkinud kahju Briti ja Hollandi kodanikele, mis kokku küündib üle nelja miljardi euro. Reitinguagentuurid on juba hoiatanud, et eitav otsus annab tagasilöögi Islandi püüdlustele normaliseerida rahvusvahelisi suhteid ning toob tõenäoliselt kaasa krediidireitingu langetamisi. FT kirjutab, et edasi liigub vaidlus EFTA kohtusse.
  • Saksamaa 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus on tõusnud esimest korda alates 2009. aasta augustist 3,5% peale.
  • Kellele pole Richard Koo varasemad intervjuud teemal "balance sheet recession" silma jäänud, siis nädalavahetusel on Nomura juhtiv ökonomist taas peatunud Jaapani näitel ning ütleb, et veel pole hilja nende kogemusest õppida. via Pragmatic Capitalism
  • Kui veebruaris tegi aeglustunud Hiina ekspordikasv paljud murelikuks, siis märtsikuus kerkis kaupade eksport taas 36%, ületades selgelt konsensuse ootusi (veebruarikuu nõrkuse taga olid ilmselt pikalt kestnud Hiina uusaasta pidustused).

    Aasta esimese kolme kuu kokkuvõttes oli Hiina kaubandusbilanss defitsiidis, mis juhtus viimati 2004. aasta alguses. Ekspordist kiiremini kasvava impordi taga on kasvav sisenõudlus ja kõrgemad toorainete hinnad. Investorite jaoks on uudis pigem positiivne, sest hoolimata rangemast rahapoliitikast jätkab Hiina kaubandus ja sisetarbimine kiiret kasvu.



  • Kui nüüdseks on sigadest finantsabi palunud Kreeka, Iirimaa ja eelmisel nädalal ka Portugal, siis Wolfgang Münchau kirjutab, miks bailoutist ei ole pääsu ka Hispaanial:
    The mix of high external indebtedness, the fragility of the financial sector and the probability of further declines in asset prices increase the probability of a funding squeeze at some point. (link)
  • Japan: Hearing magnitude of Tokyo earthquake of 7.1
    TEPCO reporting no irregularities'
    1 meter Tsunami warning
  • Wall Street Journal kirjutab, et käesolev nädal toob börsile uusi tuuli mitmete IPO-de näol, millest kõige ooodatumad on autode lühirendi firma Zipcar (ZIP) ja McDonald`si frantsiisivõtja Ladina- Ameerikas Arcos Dorados (ARCO).
    ZIP on turgu vallutamas uuendusliku autorentimise süsteemiga, mis on eelkõige suunatud linnanoortele. Nimelt pakub ZIP võimalust rentida auto ka ainult tunniks, mille saab broneerida läbi telefoni või interneti. Firma tegutseb 14. suurilinna piirkonnas ja rohkem kui 230. ülikoolilinnakus USA-s, Kanadas ja Suurbritannias ning plaanib tulevikus veelgi laieneda. Ettevõte kasvatas majanduslanguse tingimustes küll käivet, aga hetkel veel kasumit ei teeni.
  • Gapping up
    M&A news: TSTY +142.2% (Tasty Baking to merge with Flowers Foods in $165 mln deal, TSTY to receive $4.00 per share is cash, ~148% premium), GLBC +50.7% and LVLT +12.5% (Global Crossing to be acquired by Level 3 valued at $23.04 per Global Crossing common or preferred share), AMMD +41.7% and ENDP +7.7% (Endo agrees to acquire AMMD for $30 per share; expected to be immediately accretive to ENDP; ENDP reaffirms FY EPS and rev guidance), TYC +10.3% (ticking higher; Hearing M&A speculation as catalyst).

    A few European financial related names showing strength: BCS +3.5%, RBS +3.4%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: BHP +2.3%, BBL +2.3%, RIO +1.4%, SLV +1.4%, SLW +1.3%, ACH +1.2%.

    A few European drug names trading higher: SNY +1.6%, AZN +1.0%.

    Other news: WMG +10.3% (still checking), BIIB +6.4% (Biogen Idec provides positive top-line results from the first phase 3 trial investigating oral BG-12 in multiple sclerosis), HEK +5.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), VVUS +5.3% (announces QNEXA phase 3 data in The Lancet show significant weight loss and broad improvements in co-morbidities), ASML +1.7% (still checking), MKC +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: SYMC +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital), APOL +1.4% (initiated with Buy at Goldman), MON +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), OAS +1.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James).
  • Ka Balti turgudel saab täna stardipaugu tulemustehooaeg, kui välja tulevad Tallinki numbrid. Avaldasime Balti Pro all Eesti, Läti ja Leedu börsiettevõtete esimese kvartali finantstulemuste prognoosid. Link: https://fp.lhv.ee/file?id=4542
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: QUIK -12.5%, BHE -10.0%, (ticking lower), SHAW -4.7%.

    Other news: CELM -42.3% (receives letter from Nasdaq; SEC Subpoena), MDVN -3% (announce results from Phase 3 Horizon Trial of Dimebon in Huntington Disease; will discontinue development of dimebon in Huntington disease), VIAS -2.5% (thinly traded, comments on Japanese supply and other matters).

    Analyst comments: JACK -3.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), AAP -2.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T), BX -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Conviction Buy at Goldman), DPS -1.8% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), NVO -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan ), IBM -0.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity).
  • Morgan Stanley on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Transocean (RIG) kohta.
    Morgan Stanely tõstab RIG-i reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 120 hinnasihiga.


    We are turning more positive on the offshore driller space in light of significant underperformance, stronger oil prices, GoM permitting and expected exploration successes. GoM-levered drillers lagged the OSX by about 30% since Macondo, with the majority of the underperformance occurring after the well was capped. We believe that negative supply/demand implications from the GoM drilling freeze, significantly more newbuild deliveries in the current cycle, and downward revisions are now discounted in the price. Additionally, a spike in permitting over the last month makes betting against GoM-levered stocks particularly risky, in our view.

    Morgan Stanley on muutunud positiivseks süvavee puurijate suhtes ja seda eelkõige antud sektori aktsiate märkimisväärselt tagasihoidliku liikumise tõttu selliste sündmuste valguses nagu naftahindade kallinemine, taasavatud ligipääs Mehhiko lahele ning eeldatav edu uute puuraukude leidmisel ja avamisel.

    Mehhiko lahega seotud puurijad on alates seal aset leidnud katastroofist OSX-st 30% nõrgemini liikunud. Analüütikute arvates on Mehhiko lahe puurimislüngast tekkinud negatiivsed mõjud nüüd aktsiasse sisse hinnatud ning võttes arvesse uute puurimislubade andmist on analüütikute sõnul panustamine Mehhiko lahega seotud puurijate vastu eriti riskantne.

    RIG is one of the least liked stocks and one of the most attractively valued following negative headlines which we believe will have little fundamental impact on the company’s business. We expect recent initiatives to improve revenue efficiencies for its deepwater segment, potential spinoff of older assets and commencement of its dividend to act as catalysts for the stock, while the company’s mid-water fleet provides a compelling bull case.

    RIG on analüütikute sõnul üks kõige ebapopulaarsemaid aktsiaid, aga samas ka üks kõige atraktiivsema valuatsiooniga. Analüütikud eeldavad, et firma hiljutised pingutused tõhustada oma süvavee segmendi käivet, potentsiaalne vananevate varade spin-off ning dividendimakse algatus rakenduvad võimalike katalüsaatoritena .

    Alates Mehhiko lahe katastroofist on sealse puurtorniga seotud ettevõtted olnud pigem negatiivses valguses ning tänane upgrade vähendab tõenäoliselt investorite kõhklusi aktsia suhtes. Kauplemise seiskohast on RIG liikuv aktsia ning Morgan Stanley uus $ 120 hinnasiht on ka street high, mis peaks turuosalistes kindlasti ka tähelepanu äratama. RIG-le on iseloomulik avanemisel alla tulla ehk siis võib tulla ka soodsamaid hinnatasemeid.
    Hetkel kaupleb RIG 2,5% plusspoolel ehk $81,50 kandis.

  • Watch the Patterns
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/11/2011 8:44 AM EDT

    The essence of human intelligence is to see patterns, relationships and context.
    -- Marilyn Ferguson

    The key to successfully navigating the market is to have a clear understanding and appreciation for patterns. Patterns tell us what tendencies are developing. In strong, uptrending markets, we will often see strong finishes and gaps up in the morning. In weak, downtrending markets, we will tend to see strength sold and poor finishes.

    Since March 30, this market has shown a consistent pattern of intraday weakness. Strong opens have been hit with intraday selling almost every day. The bulls are still providing support and haven't let things slip too much, but there has been a clear tendency lately for market players to sell into strength. We have not had the strong buying in the final hour of trading that was the hallmark of this market during the uptrend from September 2010 to mid-February 2011.

    This weak intraday action would be of much greater concern if we hadn't had such strong underlying support. Higher oil finally pushed us down late on Friday, but over the past week and half, the bears have not been able to put pressure on the market beyond the intraday reversal of early strength. We have not taken out any important underlying support and are still just a minor amount off of the recent highs.

    We can't ignore this consistently weak intraday action. It may turn out to be churning and basing action that turns into the foundation for a move higher, but we have been struggling for a while to hold steady, and there has been a definite slowing of buying momentum.

    The biggest positive recently has been that the bears have been unable to do anything with the negative news they have been giving. While we are seeing intraday softness, there is no rush for the exits. In particular, higher oil prices have been pretty much ignored, although we saw some reaction to them on Friday. If this is the best the bears can do given Libya, Japan, European sovereign debt, the deficit and, most importantly, nascent signs of inflation, then it bodes well for the bulls.

    One thing that is going to affect the market mood over the next few weeks is first-quarter earnings. Alcoa (AA) kicks us off today, but it is another week before the more important earnings reports start to roll in. There has been talk that estimates have been moving too high, and many pundits expect the earthquake in Japan to be used as an excuse to temper numbers.

    It's been remarkable how strong earnings have been through the market correction over the last few years. You would not have known we had any sort of economic slowdown if you simply considered the earnings reports of the majority of stocks.

    So we kick off the week with a recent pattern of intraday weakness but some very strong underlying support. Earnings season is about to begin; that is likely to determine if we find support and turn back up or if we are going to see a more severe correction.

    Overseas markets were mixed to down, and oil is down a bit this morning. Talk of a possible cease-fire in Libya is helping, and the budget battle in Congress has been temporarily resolved, but the mood is rather quiet as market players wait for a better sense of direction.

    No positions.
  • Business Insider on toonud ära UBS-i üsna huvitava graafiku, mis kaardistab ära kõige kuumemad sektorid. Enne tulemuste hooaega on põnev vaadata, millised sektorite puhul on ootused kõige kõrgemad ning millised aktsiad on ka vastavalt käitunud ning vastupidi.
  • GS kirjutab, kuidas hoolimata kõrgest nafta hinnast üllatab konsensust oodatust suurem nafta nõudlus, mitte pakkumine:

    ...demand growth is slowing less than expected, implying upside to consensus estimates, while supply – for the first time in two years – stopped surprising to the upside. The market remains in deficit and this shows through inventory draws (especially in products) throughout the OECD.

    Global OECD inventory has been falling from 1Q10, the time of the first inflection between global demand growth and non-OPEC supply growth. In fact, total crude and product inventory levels in OECD have fallen sharply in the last few months and are now 8mnbls below their seasonal five-year average.
  • RIG-i liikumine on täna olnud üsna heitlik,aga sellegipoolest pakkus kauplejatele huvitavaid olukordi. Aktsia tuli oma eelturu tasemetelt avanemisel natuke alla ning kauples mõnda aega $ 81,40- 81,60 kandis ning siis tegi ilusa põrke üles, käies ära ka $ 82,80 peal. RIG on paar korda päeva jooksul tulnud uuesti $ 81,80 tasemele tagasi ning sealt uuesti põrganud. Hetkel on päeva tipuks jäänud $ 83,00 ja praegu kaupleb aktsia $ 82,50 kandis ehk 3,5% plusspoolel.

  • Bloombergis ilmus täna artikkel dollari käekäigust, mis parimate analüütikute hinnangul jätkab langust, kuna Fed hoidub tõenäoliselt intressimäärade tõstmisest pärast QE2 lõppemist selle aasta juunis.
    Wells Fargo & Co., the top forecaster for the second straight quarter, and No. 2 St. George Bank Ltd., say America’s currency will be little changed through June as the Fed lags behind central banks boosting rates. Schneider Foreign Exchange Ltd., Societe Generale SA and Bank of Nova Scotia, the next three analysts during the six quarters ended March 31 as measured in data compiled by Bloomberg, say the dollar will keep falling after its weakest start to a year since 2008.
  • Föderaalreservi asejuht Janet Yellen pidas täna kõne, milles tõi välja temale tavapärased seisukohad: toidu ja energia hindade tõus omab inflatsioonile ja tarbijakäitumisele ajutist mõju ning soovib jätkata stiimulprogrammiga vastavalt plaanidele. Bloombergi vahendusel:
    “The surge in commodity prices over the past year appears to be largely attributable to a combination of rising global demand and disruptions in global supply,” Yellen said today in a speech in New York. “These developments seem unlikely to have persistent effects on consumer inflation or to derail the economic recovery and hence do not, in my view, warrant any substantial shift in the stance of monetary policy.”

    At the same time, “we cannot be complacent about the stability of inflation expectations,” Yellen, 64, said to the Economic Club of New York. The Fed would have to tighten credit should commodity prices spark a “wage-price spiral” that sends underlying inflation up at an “unacceptable pace,” she said.

    Once the Fed decides to pare its balance sheet, it would need to sell securities at a “gradual and predictable” pace to “mitigate the uncertainty” from selling longer-term assets. “I would expect such sales when they came to put some pressure on financial markets,” she said.

    “There can be no question that sometime down the road, as the recovery gathers steam, it will become necessary for the FOMC to withdraw the monetary policy accommodation we have put in place,” Yellen said today. Leaving monetary policy “broadly unchanged” may be the best response to “shocks” in commodity prices, Yellen said.
  • Tulemustehooaja avas siis täna õhtul Alcoa (AA). EPS natuke parem, kui oodatud, aga käive alla ootuste.
    Aktsiaga on hetkel kauplemine peatatud.

    Alcoa prelim $0.28 vs $0.27 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $5.96 bln vs $6.07 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
  • WMS, mis tegeleb mänguautomaatide tootmise ja müügiga, kärbib prognoose nii järgnevateks kvartaliteks kui ka 2012. aastaks.

    WMS Industries lowers Q3 revs guidance; guides Q4 revs below consensus, guides FY12 revs well below consensus (36.22 -0.09)Co lowers Q3 revs to $191-193 mln vs $212.2 mln consensus, from $209-205; sees Q3 EPS of $0.40-0.42 vs. $0.51 consensus. Co sees Q4 revs of $210-220 mln vs. $234.1 mln consensus; sees FY12 revs well below consensus; co see FY12 revs at $810-850 mln vs. $933.9.9 mln consensus.

    Aktsia kaupleb järeturul $ 32,40 kandis, 11% miinuspoolel.
  • BarCap väljastas hiljuti analüüsi, mis toob välja võrdlemisi hirmuäratava korrelatiooni toornafta ning inflatsiooni vahel. Analüütikud väidavad, et hilutine toornafta hinnatõus võib tähendada arenenud majandustele ca 0.6 protsendipunkti ja arenevatele majandustele ca 1.1 protsendipunkti ulatuses kõrgemat inflatsiooni. BarCapi sõnul näeb nende halvim stsenaarium ette toornafta hinnaks ca $150 barreli kohta, mis tähendaks arenevatele majandustele 4.5 protsendipunkti ja arenenud majandustele ca 2.7 protsendipunkti kõrgemat inflatsooni. Allolev graafik annab öeldust hea ülevaate.



    Lisan siia ka WTI "futures curve"

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