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Börsipäev 21. aprill

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  • Pullid on tegemas võimsat tagasitulekut pärast Standard & Poor’si otsust langetada USA võla väljavaadet nädala esimeses pooles, kui peamiseks katalüsaatoriks on olnud oodatust paremad tulemused tehnoloogiasektoris. Seda seeriat õnnestus eile pärast turgu jätkata ka Apple’l, toetades sentimenti Aasias ning hoides USA indeksite futuure praeguse seisuga 0,4-1% plusspoolel. Forex turgudel on dollar öösel jätkanud väärtuse kaotamist teiste olulisemate valuutade suhtes (EUR/USD +0,5% @ 1,460 USD) kergitades omakorda toorainesektorit (WTI +0,58% @ 112 USD, kuld +0,66% @ 1509 USD).

    Tänasest makrokalendrist võiks suuremat huvi pakkuda Saksamaa aprillikuu IFO indeksid (kell 11.00), Suurbritannia märtsi jaemüük (kell 11.30), USA möödunud nädala töötuabiraha taotluste number (kell 15.30), USA juhtivate indikaatorite indeks ja Philadelphia Fedi ärisentimendi küsitlus (kell 17.00).

    Esmaste töötuabiraha taotluste kohalt on huvitav jälgida, kas eelneval nädalal ootamatult 27K võrra suurenenud näitaja võis olla tingitud ajutistest asjaoludest. Konsensus näib sellega arvestavat, prognoosides töötuabiraha taotluste langust 412K pealt 390K peale. Kestvate taotluste suurusjärguks oodatakse 3650K versus 3680K eelneval nädalal.



    Oma majandustulemused raporteerivad enne turgu muuhulgas BlackRock, DuPont, General Electric, Goodrich, McDonald’s, Morgan Stanley, Nokia, Philip Morris International, Schlumberger, United Continental, Verizon, Weatherford. Pärast turgu avaldavad kvartalitulemused AMD ja SanDisk.
  • Täna on Kopenhaageni ja Oslo börs suletud; Stockholmi börsil on lühendatud päev ja kauplemine lõppeb seal kell 14.
  • Kreeka pangandussektori aktsiad olid eile korraliku müügisurve all ning riigi 5 aasta CDS tegi uue tipu, kuna kuulujuttude kohaselt plaanitakse võlga restruktureerima juba sellel nädalavahetusel. Kreeka ametnike kaitsvaid sõnavõtte ei pane sellises olukorras enam keegi tähele, mistõttu on otsustatud pöörduda prokuröri poole, et alustada võimalikku kriminaalset juurdlust.
    Via Reuters:
    "The ministry urgently requested the prosecutor's office to launch a criminal investigation regarding the move in the Athens Stock Exchange and the bond market," the ministry said in a statement.
    "An email originated from the traders of an international investment bank was forwarded to the prosecutor's office. Such rumours are obviously ridiculous," it said.
    Kreeka 5a CDS
  • Saksamaa IFO indeksid jätkavad kajastamist trendi, mille kohaselt ollakse jooksva majandusolukorra hindamisel arvatust isegi optimistlikumad, samas edasised ootused tulevad vaikselt allapoole. Jooksvat hinnangut kajastav IFO indeks tuli aprillis 116,3 vs oodatud 115,5 (märtsis 115,8) ning ootuste indeks langes 104,7 peale vs oodatud 105,5 (märtsis 106,5)
  • Suurbritannia jaemüük ex auto ja kütus kasvas märtsis 0,2% võrreldes veebruariga, osutudes oodatust paremaks (-0,4%). Kasv jäi samaks kui arvestada sisse energia ja auto, analüütikud olid oodanud langust -0,5%.

    GBP/USD on sellest tuge saamas ning kaupleb 0,75% kõrgemal @ 1,6530
  • Weatherfordi (WFT) tulemused ei suutnud kasumi osas konsensuse ootusi rahuldada:

    Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.10 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.18; revenues rose 22.1% year/year to $2.86 bln vs the $2.82 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.15-17, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.20 Thomson Reuters consensus. Co states margin performance was held back primarily due to political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, unfavorable weather conditions and an equity tax enacted in Colombia. (briefing)

    Weatherfordi oleme põhjalikumalt tutvustanud ka Pro all. Aasta alguses sai idee aga korraliku ralli järel kinni pandud, kuna ettevõte tundus ootavat uut buumitsüklit liiga kiiresti (eriti tegi meile muret juhtkonna kiire marginaalide taastumise ootus).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HAFC +22.4%, SCSS +20.6%, PLXS +14.1%, FFIV +13.3%, DTLK +11.1%, BIIB +9.5%, SLM +6.2% (also approves $300 mln share repurchase program, reinstates dividend), GDI +6.1%, TPX +5.8%, YUM +5.2%, QCOM +5.2%, UNH +5.1%, EW +4.3%, IXYS +4%, BSX +3.8%, ETFC +3.6%, COF +3.5% (ticking higher), NOK +3.3% (also Nokia and Microsoft sign definitive agreement ahead of schedule), DD +2.9%, MS +2.5%, TEX +2.5%, CVCY +2.5% (thinly traded), AAPL +2.5%, TSCO +2.4%, HON +2.4%, PBCT +2.1% (ticking higher), NEM +0.8% (light volume).

    M&A news: TRAD +30.6% (TradeStation to be acquired by Monex Group for $9.75/sh), CSR +18% (China Security and Surveillance enters into merger agreement with Rightmark Holdingsand Rightmark Merger Sub ), SUR +2.2% (CNA Surety to be acquired by CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) for $26.55 per share).

    Select financial related names showing strength: DB +2.9%, CS +2.2%, UBS +2.2%, HBC +2.2%, BBVA +2%, STD +1.4%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SLW +3.1%, RIO +3%, BBL +2.1%, PAAS +2.1%, SLV +2%, BHP +1.9%, MT +1.6%, VALE +1.4%, GOLD +1.2%, GLD +0.3%.

    Other news: UTIW +3.1% (will replace Chipotle Mexican Grill in the S&P MidCap 400), BP +1.7% (to launch lawsuit against Transocean seeking $40 bln from last year's oil spill, according to reports).

    Analyst comments: OREX +6.2% (strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), CRH +4.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman, initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan) HBAN +3.9% (Hearing upgraded at tier 1 firm), BBY +1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale).
  • Initial Claims 403K vs 390K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 416K from 412K
    Continuing Claims falls to 3.695 mln from 3.702 mln
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LRCX -3.9%, WFT -3%, WLT -2.8%, IR -2.7%, CMG -2.6%, GILD -1.9%, VZ -1.8%, WDC -1.6%, BBT -1.5%, AXP -1.5%.

    M&A news: MSSR -1.0% (ticking lower, McCormick & Schmick's Board of Directors Unanimously Rejects LSRI Holdings' Unsolicited Tender Offer).

    Other news: ZSTN -17.4% (ticking lower on cautious newsletter mention), TEVA -8.5% (still checking), RIG -4.8%, HAL -1.4% and CAM -1.4% (BP to launch lawsuit against seeking damages from last year's oil spill, according to reports), VOD -1.6% (traded lower overseas).

    Analyst comments: SINA -5.1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), GPC -1.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman).
  • Apple Lifts the Market
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/21/2011 8:44 AM EDT

    "Perhaps it is better to be irresponsible and right, than to be responsible and wrong."
    --Winston Churchill

    A week ago, when the market was oversold and struggling to bounce back from the impact of higher oil, the growing debt problem and signs of inflationary pressures, I expressed my doubt about how easily it would be able to pull off another V-shaped bounce back to new highs. That looked like a pretty good bet, especially after the market was surprised on Monday by Standard & Poor's downgrade of its outlook for U.S. debt.

    But once again the market is proving to be amazingly resilient as it bounces back close to the highs of the year on better-than-expected earnings reports from Intel (INTC) and Apple (AAPL) . The skeptics who were looking for a failed bounce have been crushed once again, and now they are scrambling to reposition as this market resumes some powerful upside momentum.

    One of the most remarkable aspects of this market throughout the economic crisis of the past few years has been the strong earnings reports we have seen. If you simply looked at the numbers that have been reported, you would have little clue as to how weak the economy had been. We have consistently seen better-than-expected earnings reports and it has saved the market repeatedly just when it looked like we were ready to pull back.

    While those V-shaped recoveries straight back to highs are impressive, they are not very easy to trade. Technically, the high-percentage bet was to look for the market to falter before the S&P 500 made it all the way back to 1,335 or so. There was no reason technically or fundamentally to think that we would move back up so quickly and easily.

    To make the trading even more difficult, the great bulk of the move is occurring overnight. We have had two big gaps in a row, and if you aren't in already you are going to have a hard time finding entry points. Yesterday was particularly challenging because not only did we gap up big to start the day, the intraday trading range was the narrowest it's been in weeks.

    This morning it is Apple's turn to surprise the market. The stock has been acting poorly for several months on worries that supply chain issues would hurt sales of the iPad. As is so often the case, Apple destroyed the low expectations and delivered an exceptional report. Any worries about Apple now look a little ridiculous.

    As I mentioned yesterday, market players love to love Apple. It is the "go to" stock that they always want to buy if given any excuse at all -- and they have some good ones now. The analysts are raising estimates and targets and the stock is up almost $40 from the low it hit Monday. Given that Apple is a huge weighting in the indices, it is giving us a big gap-up open.

    Our job is to try to figure out how to best deal with this action. If you are loaded up long, then you are in good shape and should be thinking about ways to harvest some profits. The real challenge comes for those who are underinvested. Chasing the second huge gap-up open in a row isn't very appealing if you like favorable chart setups. While this momentum could easily continue, as it has so often, it is still a tough bet to make.

    My strategy is to once again make some sales into strength, which is becoming tougher to do (I tried that yesterday and didn't add many new buys). So I have to look for stocks that offer some entry points that aren't completely ridiculous. Trying to catch further momentum after two big gap-up opens is not going to be easy.

    We obviously have to watch again for signs that the bears will try to fade this big gap-up open. They failed miserably yesterday, and with Apple being the main driving force today, the indices have even more momentum.

    There will be bears with sound logic for shorting this sort of V-shaped strength. High oil and weak banks are definitely a negative, but I don't think I need to remind anyone how difficult it has been to fight the market when it is acting in this manner.

    I'll be doing a little profit taking into strength and will continue the hunt for some new buys, but I don't expect it to be easy. The bulls are back in control and they don't look like they have a worry in the world.

    At the time of publication, James "Rev Shark" DePorre was long AAPL, though positions can change at any time.
  • April Philadelphia Fed 18.5 vs 33.0 Briefing.com consensus; March 43.4
    March Leading Indicators +0.4% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.8%
  • Jaapanis 6,1 magnituudiline maavärin

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