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Börsipäev 2. mai

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  • Tänane börsipäev algab sõnumiga, et Bin Laden on saanud eelmisel nädalal õhurünnakutes surma ning president Obama peaks seda iga hetk ka ametlikult kinnitama.

    Sestap ka veidi ülevam meeleolu börsidel, kui USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad 0,9-1,0% kõrgemal.
  • Hõbeda futuurid kauplevad -8% kuna CME kergitas nõutavat tagatist ligi 13% võrra.
  • Londoni ja Moskva börsid täna pühade tõttu suletud.
  • Käesolev nädala toob mitmeid olulisi makrouudiseid alates tänasest USA aprilli ISM indeksist kell 17.00 ja lõpetades reedese tööjõuraportiga. Nädala sisse mahuvad veel USA aprillikuu mootorsõiduki müüginumbrid ning EKP ja Inglise keskpanga kohtumised neljapäeval. Nagu Ragnar juba mainis, on mitmes riikides lühendatud nädal (lisaks on täna suletud veel Hongkongi, Singapuri ja Hiina turud, Jaapanis mahub aga nädala sisse tervenesti neli püha).

    USA indeksite futuurid on hoidmas 0,8%-list tõusu ning sama kõrgelt on alustamas ka Euroopa turud.
  • Bespoke'i poolt koostatud graafikutelt on näha, et siiani on 1Q11 tulemustega analüütikute ootusi kasumi osas ületanud 64% ettevõtetest (hea tulemus, kuigi eelnevatel kvartalitel on see kõrgem olnud). Tulude osas on aga 1Q11 tulemused olnud võrreldes analüütikute ootustega väga head - siiani on ootusi ületanud 72% ettevõtetest.
  • Eurotsooni aprilli kuu töötleva tööstuse lõplik PMI näit kujunes isegi paremaks kui esialgu indikeeriti. Viimane oli 58.0 punkti vs oodatud 57,7 (märtsis 57,5), viidates jätkuvalt korralikule majandusaktiivsusele (teiseks kõrgem näitaja pärast kriisist taastumist).
    Euro on selle peale hoogu juurde saanud ning kaupleb hetkel dollari suhtes 0,23% kõrgemal (1,4840 USD)
  • Credit Suisse analüütikud alustavad täna Dendreon (DNDN) katmist Müü reitinguga ja koos $ 29 hinnasihiga.

    Initiate at Underperform with $29, DCF-derived target. We see near-term upside to the Provenge launch (and DNDN stock) as manufacturing rolls out (due to high unmet medical need, the U.S. physician reimbursement at average sales price plus+6%, and low out-of-pocket expenses for most), but we believe in the longer term (especially 2013+) that Provenge’s commercial potential will not live up to the Street’s expectations.

    Analüütikud on otsustanud DNDn katmist alustada MÜÜ reitinguga eelkõige seetõttu, et nende arvates on konsensuse ootused Provenge müügipotentsiaali osas liiga kõrged.

    Opportunity overestimated. The market may be overestimating Provenge: we see peak worldwide sales of $1.3 billion in 2018, well below the $3 billion consensus peak estimate. Why?
    1. Greater competitive impact from new agents (especially abiraterone) vs. the Street. We estimate U.S. new-diagnosis peak penetration of 45%, declining to 35% in 2020, with further downside risk.
    2. The opportunity in previously-diagnosed patients is smaller than the Street seems to appreciate. We estimate U.S. <5K asymptomatic (85% eligible)/<65K symptomatic (20% eligible) with peak penetration of ~20%, declining rapidly; <$50M annual sales in 2015 and beyond.
    3. Lower price and penetration in the EU relative to the Street. Reimbursement is likely to be a challenge, resulting in a lower price relative to the US and lower penetration rates – ranging from 5% (UK) to 20% (Germany). We forecast ~$350M in peak EU sales.


    Nende ootused müüginumbrite osas ( pikemas perspektiivis) on konsensuse ootustest oluliselt madalamad ( 2018 müük $ 1,3 miljardit versus $ 3 miljardit) ja seda peamiselt seetõttu, et konsensus alahindab konkurentsi mõju ning ülehindab müügiedu Euroopas (väiksem osakaal ning madalam hind võrreldes USA turuga).

    Our target price is a longer-term valuation (12-plus months); in the near-term, we think it is possible that the stock price will continue to appreciate from current levels. Assuming DNDN continues to execute on the launch, the near-term catalysts will be positive. Our concerns are that the competitive threats (2012) are greater than the market appreciates and that both the “stock” patient opportunity and European market potential are being overestimated by the Street. We fall increasingly below consensus on revenues in 2013 and beyond. Our recommendation is to take profits on strength due to manufacturing ramp and Q3/Q4 sales by late this year or early next year.

    Analüütikud juhivad tähelepanu sellele, et nende $ 29 hinnasiht on seatud pikemat perspektiivi silmas pidades ning lähiajal on aktsiat ootamas pigem positiivsed katalüsaatorid. Credit Suisse muutub aktsia suhtes negatiivseks alates järgmisest aastast ning peale 2013. aastat on neil juba võrreldes konsensusega oluliselt tagasihoidlikumad ootused. Analüütikud soovitavad investoritel selle aastanumbri sees kasumit lukku hakata panema.

    DNDN-le Müü reitingu andmine on kahtlemata julge ja ka konsensusest ootustest täiesti erinev. DNDN, mis oma vähiravimi Provengega , tegi ravimimaailmas lausa revolutsiooni on olnud investorite ja analüütikute silmatera ning antud call tekitab turuosalistes kahtlemata vastakaid arvamusi. Just seetõttu on selle calli puhul keskmisest keerulisem ennustada, mis moodi aktsia sellele reageerib. Võib juhtuda, et aktsia müüakse eelturul väga alla ning avanemisel ostetakse uuesti üles. Kuna analüütikute prognoos on üsna pika vinnaga, siis pole välistatud seegi, et calli väga tõsiselt hetkel ei võeta.

    DNDN kaupleb eelturul 0,9% miinuspoolel ($ 43,04)

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LYB +5.6%, CPO +2.7%, JKS +0.9%.

    M&A news: ICO +30.6% (Arch Coal to acquire ICO for $14.60 per share; ACI anticipates that the transaction will be accretive to earnings in 2012), VLCM +23% (reports surfacing PPR to purchase co for $24.50 per share or ~$607.5 mln), CEPH +6.3% and TEVA +3% (Cephalon to be acquired by Teva for $81.50 per share in cash), PUDA (Puda Coal receives buy-out proposal from Chairman for $12/share; investigation continues; halted since Apr. 8).

    Coal names lifting on ACI/ICO and PUDA news
    : JRCC +3.3%, PCX +4%.

    Airline related names ticking higher: JBLU +6%, DAL +3.6%, AMR +3.1%, LUV +2.1%.

    Other news: TIVO +17.6% (announced its $500 mln settlement of patent litigation with DISH Network and EchoStar), SPPI +16.1% (approves FUSILEV for use in patients with colorectal cancer), DMED +8.7% (unit receives FDA 510(k) clearance to market its Spring Universal Infusion Sets in US; expects US commercial launch later this Q), RCL +2.7% (still checking for anything specific), CAT +2.2% (positive mention in financial newspaper), SMSC +1.8% (approves an increase of 2,000,000 shares to its current share repurchase authorization), VFC +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), GE +1.4% (still checking), SNE +1.1% (rebounding after co outlines plan to resume Playstation operations), RIMM +0.7% (rebounding following positive mention in financial newspaper).

    Analyst comments: NFLX +2.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), AA +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), EMC +1.6% (strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: L -4.9%.

    M&A news: THC -6.9% (Community Health Systems raises all-cash offer for Tenet Healthcare to $7.25 Per Share), ACI -2.3% (Arch Coal to acquire ICO for $14.60 per share; ACI anticipates that the transaction will be accretive to earnings in 2012).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: GRS -4.2%, HL -3.6%, CDE -2.6%, UXG -2.1%, HMY -1.9%, SWC -1.8%, RGLD -1.6%, GDX -1.5%, AEM -1.1%, KGC -1.0%, GLD -0.7%.

    Silver related names significantly lower: SSRI -6.4%, EXK -5.8%, SLW -5.7%, AG -5.1%, SLV -5.1%, SVM -4.3%, PAAS -3.1%.

    Other news: YRCW -14.9% (reached definitive agreements for restructuring plan), JTX -11.5% (discloses new amendment to amended and restated credit agreement), VRX -6.4% (trading over 3 points lower on CEPH/TEVA news, Valeant had proposed to acquire Cephalon for $73 per share in cash).

    Analyst comments: WFMI -2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), AMAT -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), JASO -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Needham ), DNDN -1% (initiated with an Underperform at Credit Suisse).
  • The Task at Hand
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/2/2011 8:44 AM EDT

    "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." --Edmund Burke

    There is no question what is boosting the market this morning. Good men have finally triumphed and ended the evil that was Osama Bin Laden. A few years ago the market probably would be seeing a much bigger positive reaction but, obviously, this is a big psychological boost and may change many aspects of the struggles in the Middle East, especially when it comes to oil.

    Our job is to figure out how to navigate this market. The fact that we've gone straight up for the last eight trading days adds a very high level of complexity. We can't just load up at these very elevated levels and expect this upside to continue indefinitely. We are extended and in need of a rest and there are signs already this morning that market players are looking to do some selling into this early strength.

    The weak U.S. dollar has been a major market positive lately, but that is reversing in the early going and we have silver and oil trading down. The bullish scenario we have to be looking for at this point is that the money that comes out of commodities due to the stronger dollar moves into technology.

    Although the market has been strong, we have not had much good leadership, and volume has been weak during the run. Some of the big-cap momentum favorites have been very mixed, and we have had a lack of new highs in individual stocks while the indices go straight up.

    One of the most challenging aspects of this market has been the abundance of arguments against it. High oil, increased unemployment claims, mixed economic growth, extended technical conditions, and so on have not been obstacles to the continued ascent. Once the momentum kicked in, it has continued to run. Arguing over it has been plain foolish. That doesn't make it easy to stay long and keep on buying, but it has happened so often during the past two years that it isn't all that surprising to see it occur once again.

    You have to wonder now if the market, in its typically perverse fashion, will find an excuse for some selling now that we actually have some really positive news. The market had little lasting reaction to the capture of Saddam Hussein, so there is precedent that this bump up to start the week may not have legs.

    Don't forget that it is the first day of a new month, and that has had a very positive tendency, but it wears off quickly. This market is going to need to rest and consolidate in order to have a good foundation for further upside.

    The upside momentum has crushed any and all negatives for a couple weeks now. Will the good news of the end of Bin Laden keep it going or will it finally trigger some overdue profit taking? I wouldn't be too quick to short the first day of a new month. But if the dollar continues to strengthen, the desire to take profits is going to start kicking in.
  • Tänase päevaga seoses võiks keegi välja tuua need aktsiad , mis võiksid tõusta terroriohu suurenedes.Lähi-
    tulevikus võivad ju uuesti välja ilmuda mingid valge pulbri pakikesed või toimub midagi hoopis tõsisemat,
    näiteks keemiarünnak.
  • Kui väga pikaks kujuneb, siis CPB ja SWHC :)
  • Schlagbaumm on viimastes börsipäeva foorumites toonud välja huvitavaid sündmusi biotehnoloogia maailmast ja kes soovib ka edaspidi asjadega kursis olla, siis Adam Feuerstein on kokku pannud maikuu biotehnoloogia kalendri, kus kirjas kõik biotehnoloogia firmasid puudutavad sündmused.
  • April ISM Index 60.4 vs 59.7 Briefing.com consensus; March 61.2
    March Construction Spending +1.1% vs 0.0% Briefing.com consensus
  • Tänane Credit Suisse call osutuski turuosaliste jaoks mitte eriti oluliseks teemaks, kuna aktsia sisuliselt sellele ei reageerinud ning kaupleb kerges miinuses. Leige reageering on seletatav sellega, et analüütikute prognoos puudutas liiga kauget tulevikku ning investorid hetkel olulist ohtu ei tunneta. DNDN kaupleb praegu $ 43,28 kandis ehk 0,30 % miinuspoolel.

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  • The Fed purchased $7.24 bln of 2018-2021 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $22.09 bln
  • Euro jõudnud uude 16 kuu tippu $1,4900 tasemel ja Austraalia dollaril uus kõikide aegade tipp $1,1010 tasemel.
  • NASDAQ OMX and IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) announced that each of their respective Boards of Directors have approved their intent to commence an exchange offer to acquire all of the outstanding shares of NYSE Euronext common stock in a cash and stock transaction valued at ~$11 billion. Under the terms of the offer, each share of NYSE Euronext would be exchanged for $14.24 in cash, 0.4069 shares of NASDAQ OMX common stock and 0.1436 shares of ICE common stock. If NASDAQ OMX and ICE are successful in acquiring shares pursuant to the offer, they would consummate a second step merger as soon as possible thereafter to acquire the remaining NYSE Euronext shares for the same consideration per share. "While we are hopeful that the Board will decide to consider this transaction, we are taking our proposal to NYSE Euronext stockholders upon the commencement of this exchange offer to provide the opportunity to consider our proposal directly."

    Ehk NYX eest pakutakse $14.24 raha + 0.4069 NDAQ aktsiat + 0.1436 ICE aktsiat
  • Treasury says will suspend on Friday issuance of 'slugs' for state and local govt bonds to give U.S. govt more room to borrow

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