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Börsipäev 10. mai

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  • Aasia turud on võtnud USA positiivselt sendimendilt sabast kinni ning kauplevad täna hommikul üksikute eranditega plusspoolel. Nafta rallis pärast möödunud nädala 15%-list kaotust taas üle 100 dollari barreli eest, ent CME värsked WTI ja Brenti kõrgemad marginaalinõuded on hinnale taas survet avaldamas (WTI hetkel -1,5% @ 100.9 USD)

    Turu sentimendi kohalt olulisi majandusuudiseid täna oodata ei ole, kui fookus saab jätkuvalt olema Kreekal. Viimase valitsus plaanib täna müüa 1,25 miljardi euro eest 182 päeva pikkuseid võlakirju. S&P langetas eile Kreeka võlareitingu BB- pealt B peale, mis tingis euro müügisurve. Päeva lõpuks tegi ühisraha korraliku taastumise, ent täna hommikul uuesti eilsete põhjade juurde kukkumine näitab, et Kreeka teema on siiski piisavalt palju närvilisust investorites tekitamas.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,05-0,2% punases, Euroopa turud tõotavad avaneda 0,15% kõrgemal.
  • Ühe Kreeka ametniku sõnul on uut abipaketti oodata juba juunis, mis võib olla kombinatsioon EFSF-st ja laenutähtaegade pikendamisest. Summaks pakutakse 27 miljardit eurot 2012. aastal ja 32 miljardit 2013. aastal. Euro on dollari vastu oma hommikuse kaotuse sisuliselt tasa teinud ning USA futuurid 0,1-0,2% plusspoolele hüpanud.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) confirms $8.5 billion purchase of Skype
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MED +11.3%, CRAY +8.6% (also signs contract to upgrade and expand the Cray XE6 Supercomputer at the University of Edinburgh), DF +9.7%, CPE +5.2%, YONG +4.9%, PKOH +4.9%, JASO +4.9%, CMFO +4.6%, IDTI +4%, RST +3.1% (light volume), MR +3.1% (also upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer), CNIT +3% (ticking higher), IHG +2.8%, FOSL +2.5%, PLOW +2.1%, EGLE +1% (light volume).

    Select financial related names showing strength: NBG +3.6%, ING +2.6% (reports out that Ally Financial may be interest in the ING Direct unit), DB +1.6%, HBC +1.5%, LYG +1.4%, STD +1.2%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SLW +1.7%, SLV +1.5%, SSRI +1.1%, MT +1.1%, RIO +0.7%, GOLD +0.5%, BHP +0.3%, GLD +0.3%.

    Other news: VG +9.0% (trading notably higher in sympathy with Skype news ), SCEI +4.4% (files formal complaint against short seller attackers), EBAY +3% (Microsoft confirms plan to buy Skype), RCL +2.8% and CCL +2.2% (still checking), NUAN +2.1% (seeing continued strength on more Apple collaboration speculation).

    Analyst comments: SKS +1.6% (ticking higher, upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman).
  • Eilses börsipäevas oli juttu Collins Stewarti prognoosist DNDN ravimi Provenge kohta, kus muu hulgas mainiti ka Provenge võimalikku konkurenti MDV3100.

    Täna alustavad Citi analüütikud Medivation (MDVN) katmist Osta soovitusega ja koos $ 35 hinnasihiga ning just see firma tegeleb MDV3100 arendamisega.

    Medivation is a biopharmaceutical company with two small molecule drugs currently in Phase 3 trials: (1) MDV3100 is a prostate cancer drug partnered with Astellas, a Japanese pharma company with a global footprint. MDV3100 is currently being investigated in a Ph3 study called AFFIRM, which is being conducted in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer who have previously failed Taxotere. Interim results from this study could come as early as this year. (2) Dimebon is a neurological drug partnered with pharma giant Pfizer; it is currently in a Ph3 trial called CONCERT in patients with Alzheimer's.

    Medivation on biotehnoloogia firma, millel hetkel kolmandas faasis arenduses kaks ravimit: esimesene neist on MDV3100, mis on eesnäärmevähi ravim ning kahasse Jaapani päritolu firmaga Astellas. Analüütikud usuvad, et uurimuse tulemused võivad tulla juba käesoleva aasta lõpuks. Teine ravim on Dimebon (Alzheimeri tõve raviks) mõeldud ning arendatakse koostöös Pfizeriga.

    Why Buy? – We believe the current stock price does not fully reflect the MDV3100 opportunity as we believe investors are mixed on whether the AFFIRM study will be positive; however, based on our analysis, we believe MDV3100 is an active drug at the 160 mg/day dose, and we expect positive results from this trial.

    Citi analüütikud usuvad, et hetke aktsiahind ei peegelda õiglaselt MDV3100 tegelikku potentsiaali, sest investorid pelgavad ravimi uurimuse tulemuste kohta halbu uudiseid saada. Citi analüütikud aga prognoosivad, et oodata on positiivseid tulemusi.

    Why Buy Now? – We believe the stock will continue to appreciate heading into the next catalyst: interim results from the Ph3 MDV3100 AFFIRM study possibly later this year. Additionally, with low expectations for Dimebon, we see limited downside risk with negative results from the ongoing Ph3 Dimebon CONCERT study in 1H12.

    Analüütikud soovitavad aktsiat just praegu osta, kuna aktsia ilmselt jätkab positiivsete uudiste ootuses tõusmist ning kuna Dimeboni suhtes on ootused äärmiselt madalad, siis selle uurimuse negatiivsed uudised ei tohiks erilise üllatusena enam tulla.

    So Where Does the Stock Go? – Our PT for MDVN is $35, which is based on 30x our 2015 EPS estimate of $2.82. However, some of our sales estimates likely are conservative; so we do see additional upside potential to our current price target.

    Analüütikud hindavad, et nende prognoosid võivad aktsiahinna suhtes olla ka konservatiivsed ning $ 35 hinnasiht pole prognooside realiseerumisel sugugi lagi.

    What Are Some of the Risks? – If the interim results are negative, the study would go to completion and we believe the stock could be under some pressure. However, we believe a positive result on final analysis (even with a negative interim analysis) would support regulatory approval of MDV3100. If the final results are negative, however, we believe investors will lose confidence in the overall MDV3100 program (i.e., the other studies that are being conducted in earlier stage disease), and we believe the stock likely falls to $7 level (2x year-end 2011 cash).

    Nagu biotehnoloogia aktsiatega ikka, siis pakuvad nad investoritele võrdses koguses hirmu ja armu ehk teisisõnu on võimaliku tõusu kõrval ka alati reaalne suur langus. Kui vahepealsed tulemused on negatiivsed, siis uurimust täiustatakse ning MDVN aktsia oleks ilmselt mõningase surve all. Kui uurimuse lõpptulemused on samuti negatiivsed, siis on reaalne, et aktsia kukub $ 7 tasemeni.

    Ei ole kindel, kas ja mil määral tänane Citi call aktsiat liigutab, aga põnevust peaks see lugu iseenesest juba pakkuma, seda enam, et MDV3100 näol on tegemist Provenge võimaliku olulise konkurendiga ja just selle ravimi müügiedu hirmus on mitmed Wall Street`i analüütikud ka kärpinud Provenge käibe ootusi, mis omakorda on pannud müügisurve alla DNDN.




  • USA aprillikuu impordi hinnaindeks 2,2% vs oodatud 1,8% (eelmisel kuul 2,6%) (M/M) ja aastases lõikes 11,1% vs oodatud 10,4% (eelmisel kuul 9,9%), mis on ühtlasi suurim kasv viimase aasta jooksul.
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BMTI -23.1%, HEAT -17.5%, MNKD -15.9%, USAT -11.8%, ENER -10.9%, GMXR -8.9%, AOB -5.4%, ASEI -4.3%, PANL -4.1% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord), CVI -4.1% (light volume), ATPG -3.4%, OPNT -2.1% (ticking lower), RAX -2%, AVNR -1.6%, CLNE -1.6%.

    M&A news: THC -2.1% (Tenet Healthcare reported that Community Health Systems withdraws offer for Tenet).

    Other news: NSPH -21.5% (announces commencement of public offering of common stock), DHX -7.7% (announces public offering of 8 mln shares of common stock by shareholders), WIBC -7.1% (commences an underwritten public offering of ~$100 mln of its common stock), NRF -5.9% (announces public offering of 15 mln shares of common stock), DCIX -5% (filed a registration statement for a proposed public offering of shares of its common stock having a maximum value of $150.0 mln), CNK -3.3% (announces the sale of shares by Madison Dearborn Capital Partners IV, L.P., The Mitchell Special Trust and Lee Roy Mitchell), SIRO -2.9% (announces proposed public secondary offering by selling stockholders for 10.1 mln shares of common stock), MOTR -2.2% (Cramer makes cautious comments on MadMoney), TSL -1.7% (expects its solar module shipments in the first quarter to be in the range of 320 MW to 322 MW vs previous guidance of slightly higher than the ~351 MW shipped in Q4 2010), PDLI -1.2% (announces proposed $135 mln public offering of new convertible senior notes due 2015).

    Analyst comments: JNY -3.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), ADM -1% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), AEO -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital).
  • The Misbehaving Market
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/10/2011 8:55 AM EDT

    The best way to behave is to misbehave.
    -- Mae West

    After a very lazy but positive day of trading on Monday, we are seeing some strong early action this morning. China reported a better-than-expected trade surplus in April on a jump in exports and talk is circulating that Greece may receive a new $86 billion bailout. I’m not quite sure that giving Greece more money is a positive, but European stocks are apparently pleased that a restructuring can be avoided in the near term.

    Once again, the market is doing what it has done so well for so long. It is misbehaving in a manner that confounds the bears as it bounces back on very light volume and in the face of some obvious negatives. Typically, this market will stick it to the bears just as obvious short setups starts to develop.

    Last week we saw a nasty-looking breakdown as momentum and commodity stocks were hit hard. We then saw a weak recovery, which suggested that we should be watching for a failed bounce to develop. In addition, the news flow hasn't been all that great and the stronger dollar was a major shift, so there were good fundamental arguments to support the bears. However, this market has consistently crushed skeptics who think the market can't possible run back up so easily. The skeptics always seem to turn into short squeeze feel and help to produce the very result they think is not possible.

    What has added to the challenge lately is that volume is light and the trading slow but we have a very high level of volatility in the commodity sector, especially in oil and silver. Both bounced back very strongly yesterday as the dollar weakened. That really helped to provide some underlying support for the market, although much of the trading action was lackluster.

    So once again we are back in a very familiar place. While there are lots of good, logical reasons why we should look to fade this early strength, recent history suggests it isn't a very good idea to fight these V-shaped bounces after a technical breakdown. You can make great arguments, both technically and fundamentally as to why this market should roll over again, but if you did that in February, March or April when the market first started to bounce, you would have been deal wrong.

    If you really want to play the dark side in this environment, you have to wait for some actual weakness to set in. Trying to anticipate turns has crushed the bears for over two years now. This is not a market for anticipatory bearishness. At some point, we will see some downside traction and then you can jump in and ride some shorts. It is all about timing and the bears who fight strength have not been able to time this market at all.

    We will see how well this early strength holds, but days like yesterday create underlying support as underinvested bulls become frustrated. As long as the S&P 500 holds above 1330 to 1340, the bulls have the edge. If it starts to test that area, I would increase my defense quickly, but there is no danger of that at this point.
  • Business Insider on välja toonud 15 aktsiat, mis on lühikeseksmüüjate erilised lemmikud ehk nagu BI ise ütleb - 15 Stocks Everyone Is Shorting Like Crazy.
    Teiste hulgas on nimetatud First Solar (FSLR) 20% SI, Blackboard (BBBB) 50,2%, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) 21%, Netflix (NFLX) jt
  • Universal Display (PANL): Hearing defended following earnings at Cowen
  • Nagu Vallo ennist ka kirjutas, siis täna sai teoks Microsofti ja Skype tehing ehk siis MSFT ostis Skype`i $ 8,5 miljardi eest ära.
    WSJ toob tehingu kohta ära olulisemad kommentaarid täna hommikul toimunud pressikonverentsilt, kus MSFT-i CEO Steve Ballmer tehingu tagamaid pikemalt selgitas.
    MSFT plaanib Skype hakata kasutama põhimõtteliselt kõigis oma toodetes muu hulgas näiteks televiisoris. Antud tehingu puhul kerkis üheks peamiseks küsimuseks, kas MSFT lubab Skype kasutada ka seadmetes, mis kuuluvad ettevõtte konkurentidele (näiteks iPhone) ning selle peale vastas Ballmer, et selle pärast pole vaja muretseda ning kinnitab, et MSFT jätkab Skype`i kasutamise toetamist ka teistel platvormidel.
    Pikemalt saab lugeda Microsofti plaanidest ja põhjendustest seoses Skype`i tehinguga siit.
  • Fed's Lacker says tightening may be needed before jobless rate falls to expected level
  • $32 bln 3-yr Note Auction Results: 1.000%; Bid/Cover 3.29x (Prior 3.25x, 10-auction avg 3.14x); Indirect Bidders 32.7% (Prior 33.7%, 10-auction avg 35.9%)
  • Rovi (ROVI) prelim $0.61 vs $0.51 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $195.4 mln vs $188.1 mln Thomson Reuters consensus
    Molycorp (MCP) prelim $0.01 vs $0.10 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $26.2 mln vs $41.68 mln Thomson Reuters consensus
    ZAGG prelim $0.13 vs $0.10 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $27.0 mln vs $20.59 mln Thomson Reuters consensus
    ZAGG raises FY11 guidance to revs $100-110 mln vs $99.92 mln Thomson Reuters consensus
  • Kuigi toornafta hind on viimastel nädalatel teinud tugeva languse, mis peaks tähendama USA tarbijale odavamat kütusehinda, siis paraku nii ei ole. Nimelt on mootorkütuse ning toornafta hinnavahe (“gasoline crack,” mida kasutatakse tihti rafineerimistehaste kasumimarginaali määramiseks) viimaste aastaste võrdlusbaasil käimasoleval aastal oluliselt suurem. WTI hinnavahe on tänaseks ca $40 ja Brent hinnavahe veidi alla $20 (selle vahe põhjuseks võib pidada “Cushing sündroomi”). Alloleval graafikul on kujutatud NYMEXi RBOB mootorkütuse ja toornafta hinnavahe, mis annab öeldust hea ülevaate. Trend on võrdlemisi sarnane 2007. aastal nähtuga ning huvitatutel tasuks jälgida rafineerimisega tegelevaid ettevõtteid. Samas tuleb märkida, et 30. mail on USAs “Memorial Day,” mida peetakse ühtlasi nii-öelda suve sõiduhooaja alguseks (Ameeriklased lähevad puhkusele) ning sellega kaasneb suurem nõudlus. Viimase kuuga on mootorkütuse hinnad USAs tõusnud ca $0.25 võrra.

  • Hiina avaldas täna hommikul huvitavat informatsiooni. Riigi kaubandusülejääk kasvas aprillis $11.4 miljardile vs konsensuse poolt oodatud $3.2 miljardit. Teisisõnu kui hiina ekspordib, siis keegi peab ka rohkem importima (näiteks USA). Citigroup prognoosib, et USA kaubandusdefitsiit (raport avaldatakse kolmapäeval kell 15:30) kasvas $45.8 miljardi pealt $47 miljardile (konsensus ootab numbriks -$47.7 miljardit).

    Citigroup:

    The market and Cit expect a modest widening in the US trade deficit tomorrow to a deficit of USD47bn from USD45.8. One implication is that the consensus view expects the widening of the US trade deficit to be driven almost entirely by higher energy prices. Some of the incoming data suggest a risk of a surge non-energy imports. For example the countries that report early show the largest surge in our data's history (which goes back to 1990) in March exports to the US. These exporters are not energy exporters to a significant so there is a risk that non-energy exports surge.

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