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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 23. mai

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Euroopa võlaprobleemid on külvamas jätkuvat hirmu turgudel, meenutades iga päevaga täpselt aastatagust olukorda. Aasia indeksid on avanud nädala ligi kahe kuu suurima kukkumisega ning üle protsendises miinuses tõotavad avaneda ka Euroopa indeksid. USA futuurid kauplevad -0,5% punases.

    Tänases makrokalendris tõusetub esile vaid euroala maikuu esmane PMI näit, mis avalikustatakse kell 11.00.
  • Euro on uut nädalat alustanud korraliku müügisurvega, kaubeldes dollari suhtes 0,9% madalamal $1,4035 tasemel - ligi kahe kuu põhjas.
  • Saksamaa maikuu PMI tootmisindeks 58,2 vs oodatud 61,0 punkti ja PMI teenustesektori indeks 54,9 vs oodatud 57,0 punkti. Euro kukkus hetkeks allapoole $1,40 tasemest.
  • Kreeka ja Saksamaa 10-aastase võlakirja tulususte erinevusel täna uus kõikide aegade rekord 1354 baaspunkti.
  • Kuigi aktsiaturud on täna nagunii tugeva surve all, on Islandi vulkaanipurse omalt poolt veel lennukompaniide aktsiahindasid survestamas. FT Alphaville'i blogis on ära toodud nelja lennundusettevõtte hinnagraafikud: Easyjet -5,43%, Ryanair -4,74%, British Airways (International Consolidated Airlines Groupshares) -3,51% ja Air-France -3,3%.

  • Aasia börsidel suurendas müügisurvet HSBC poolt mõõdetav Hiina esialgne maikuu PMI, mis kukkus 51.1 punkti tasemele (viimase kümne kuu madalaim tase).
  • Euro müügisurve on jätkumas: hetkel on $1,40 tasemest kenasti läbi tuldud ja kaubeldakse 1,33% madalamal $1,3970 juures.
  • Tänane Financial Times kirjutab, et vaatamata Hispaania 21%-le tööpuudusele loodab kalli kaubamärgina tuntud Hugo Boss müüa oma tooteid Hispaanias rohkem kui 2007. aastal.
    Sektor lõikab kasu eelkõige Hiinlaste luksusjanust, sest näiteks Londoni kaubamaja Harrods ütleb, et keskmine hiinlasest klient jätab poodi £ 3500. Goldman Sachsi analüütikud usuvad, et inimeste arv, kes saavad lubada endale luksuskaupu (inimesed, kes teenivad rohkem kui $ 30 000 aastas) kasvab Hiinas alates käesolevast aastast 2025. aastaks 12,5 miljonilt 200 miljonini.
    Financial Times juhib tähelepanu sellele, et alati, kui ootused on väga kõrged, on loos ka oma konks ning nad usuvad, et tõenäoliselt teenivad luksuskaupade müüjad jätkuvalt palju raha, kuid see ei pruugi sama tähendada inimeste jaoks, kes nende firmade aktsiaid ostavad.
  • LNKD lühikeseks müümisega läheb ilmselt samamoodi kui RENN-i lühikeseks müügiga.
    See tähendab ,et kui osutub võimalikuks seda teha pole asjal enam erilist jumet.
    Ise olen LNKD-d püüdnud kahe päeva jooksul oma 20 korda lühikeseks müüa aga siiamaani pole õnnestunud.
    Ega ma veel jonni ei jäta.
    See on ju tegelikult karjuv füüsiline vägivald ,et tavaline inimene seda teha ei saa.
  • Morgan Stanley on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega AK Steel Holding (AKS) kohta.
    Morgan Stanley tõstab AKS reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $24 hinnasihiga.


    AK Steel is turning the corner, and earnings power is not priced in: While shares across the steel space have become cheap as a result of the recent correction, we see significant value upside in AKS shares, in particular (70% to our PT of $24). Our mid-cycle EBITDA estimate is 30% higher than what is discounted in the shares on our view that benefits from sustainable cost cuts, a lesser impact from iron ore costs, and improving margins in the company’s key electrical steel business have gone unnoticed.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et AKS on pöördepunktis, kui sellegipoolest ei peegeldu ettevõtte kasumiteenimise võime aktsiahinnas. Terasetootjate aktsiad on hiljutise hinnakorrektsiooni tõttu langenud, aga analüütikud usuvad, et turg alahindab kulude kärpimisest saadavat kasu, väiksemat mõju rauamaagi hindadest ning lisaks eelnevale on tähelepanuta jäänud firma paranevad marginaalid elektrotehilise terase segmendis.

    Our higher estimates are a result of three factors: 1. Deep dive on mid-cycle earnings power: In the years leading into the downturn, AK Steel made significant sustainable cost cuts and operational improvements. We scrutinized the business and determined the company has improved sustainableEBITDA by $84/t since 2003.
    2. New iron ore strategy: An iron ore margin squeeze was a major headwind for AKS shares in 2010, and investors remain concerned. We think the company’s tighter product markets enables it to pass iron ore costs through, and new contracts structures will make this automatic for 70% of sales.


    3. Electrical steel market bottoming: Electrical steel appears to be recovering as ABB and Siemens reporter strong growth in 1Q new orders, a good leading indicator of electrical steel volumes and pricing. This high margin business could improve EPS by $0.35 in 2012.

    We see two catalysts in July: First, we expect steel prices to bottom around July; falling prices are currently an overhang. Second, we think 3Q guidance will surprise to the upside, which the company will release in late July.


    Analüütikud näevad kahte katalüsaatorit juba juulis: esiteks usuvad nad, et terasehinnad leiavad jõuavad oma madalaimale tasemele juulis ning , et ettevõtte annab kolmandaks kvartaliks oodatust parema prognoosi.

    Varane eelturg ei luba positiivsetele reitingumuutustele küll soodsat pinnast, aga Morgan Stanley argumendid on küllalt veenvad, et võiks turuosaluste huvi siiski äratada. Aktsia on viimase kuuga läbi teinud korraliku languse ning Morgan Stanley analüütikute hinnasiht lubab 70% -st tõusu.


    Hetkel kaupleb aktsia 1,3% plusspoolel ($ 14,32)

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: KKD +10.0%, CPB +0.8 (ticking higher).

    M&A news: CFSG +16.8% (China Fire & Sec Grp announces Bain Capital Partners with management to acquire China Fire for $9.00 a share).

    Other news: SQNS +12.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), SNTS +5.3% (ticking higher, provides new data from open-label studies evaluating the efficacy and safety of the investigational drug RHUCIN; showed response rate of 87%), SPPI +1.6% (announces ZEVALIN and Belinostat Abstracts to Be Presented), GIVN +1.1% (Given Imaging PillCam ESO 3 receives FDA clearance).

    Analyst comments: AKS +1.9% (strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LMAT -8.4%, (light volume), SNE -3.2%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: AIB -4.3%, ING -2.9%, HBC -2.1%, DB -2.1%, IRE -1.7%, CS -0.9%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: GOLD -3.4%, BBL -3.3%, BHP -3.1%, MT -2.7%, RIO -2.6%, SLV -1.4%.

    A few rare earth related names are under pressure: REE -4.1%, SHZ -3.9%, MCP -3.4%, AVL -2.1%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: E -4.9%, SSL -4.5%, SWN -4.4%, SDRL -4.4%, SD -3.4%, RDS.A -2.7%, STO -2.4%, TOT -2%, BP -1.7%.

    Other news: RYAAY -7.2% (lower with reports of volcanic ash causing issues), BSI -6.4% (still checking), ARMH -3.7% and NOK -2.8% (still checking for anything specific), GTXI -2.3% (files $100 mln mixed securities shelf).

    Analyst comments: BKE -4% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), ERIC -3.9% (weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), LDK -3.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), ONNN -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), ED -0.8% (weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade).
  • Under Pressure
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/23/2011 8:37 AM EDT

    "When we long for life without difficulties, remind us that oaks grow strong in contrary winds and diamonds are made under pressure."
    --Peter Marshall

    Downgrades of Greek and Italian debt, a weak German Purchasing Manager Index and a strong U.S. dollar have the market under significant pressure to kick off the week. The market action has been quite nervous since the beginning of May, and now we are starting to see a pronounced change in the character of the action as a downtrend more fully develops.

    The major indices are still just a few percentage points off their recent highs, but they have been understating the weakness that has been occurring under the surface for a while. Groups like financials, oil services, precious metals and commodities are already well off the highs of earlier this year. Key big-cap momentum names like Apple (AAPL) , Baidu (BIDU) and Google (GOOG) have been acting poorly for a number of weeks.

    Retailers and semiconductors have help to hold up the indices, but both are showing signs of fatigue. The real strength in this market has been the defensive names in consumer staples and pharmaceuticals, but it is never healthy when the most dominant theme in the market is finding a safe place to hide.

    The biggest positive we have right now is that sentiment is already quite negative. It is unusual for there to be a high level of pessimism with the indices still so close to their recent highs, but the action in individual stocks demonstrates the high level of fear that is already out there. High pessimism is a positive as it means that market players may have already taken some steps to cut their exposure and therefore there is some buying support under the market.

    With the weak open this morning, the S&P 500 now has its second failed bounce and its second lower high in the past three weeks. In addition, we will be very close to testing the lows of last week if current indications hold. That is what a downtrending market looks like. Downtrends are made up of failed bounces and lower highs and lows.

    On the way up, I wrote quite a bit about how we needed to respect the fact that we were in an uptrend even if we didn't agree with it. We have to let the price action be our guide even if we think it's wrong or irrational. I kept hearing last week how it's "right" for the market to go up because oil was weak, but the market is making it clear that it is going to take more than weaker oil to attract buyers.

    The number one thing to keep in mind is that the market is under pressure and has been developing into a downtrend for three weeks. We need to play defense and stay out of the way until this plays out. Of course, one of the favorite games on Wall Street is "Call the Bottom," so there are going to be countless declarations that we are near a low and that it is time to buy. The top callers never timed it right on the way up and the bottom callers won't time it right on the way down. They will just keep on repeating the same things until the market finally decides what it's going to do.

    It's probably positive that we have a fairly significant gap down Monday morning. That will shake out marginal and nervous holders and give us a better setup for a potential bounce. Of course we should only be thinking about short-lived bounces and not major market turns at this point.

    It is going to be very tricky, so be ready to go to work. The good thing about poor action is that ultimately it creates a new crop of opportunities. We just have to be patient and wait for them to develop.

    At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
  • Olen eelnevalt põgusalt juba börsipäevas juttu teinud Venemaa "Google`i" Yandexi IPO-st ja tänane WSJ kirjutab, et Venemaa populaarseima otsingumootori aktsiate vastu on investoritel huvi suur ning väidetavalt on aktsiad juba kümme korda üle märgitud.

    Aktsia märkimishind teatatakse kas täna õhtul või homme hommikul ja on tõenäoliselt tõstetud $ 20-22 pealt $ 24-25 peale.
  • GMCR on ikka uskumatu!
    Kogu turg punane aga see käkk ikka rõõmsalt roheline.
  • Huvitaval kombel kipub viimasel ajal silma jääma suhteliselt palju tehno IOP-sid, kas see on sellest tingitud, et " Mulli" tont liigub ringi ning tähelepanu on koondunud just tehnoloogi sektorile pigem. Kust oleks võimalik saada ülevaade viiamase paari kuu IPO-dest? Oskab keegi öelda?

    Tänud
  • The Fed purchased $6.94 bln of 2018-2021 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $17.29 bln
  • GMCR põhjuse tugevuseks võib siit leida:
    To Join the NASDAQ-100 Index Beginning May 27, 2011

  • Siit saab vist põgusa ülevaate hiljuti toimunud ja varsti toimuvatest IPO-st.
  • AKS jäi siiski täna turu negatiivsele sentimendile alla. Kuigi aktsia on suutnud end siiani rohelisel territooriumil hoida, siis jõudu selles callis täna kahjuks piisavalt ei olnud. Aktsia avanes $ 14,32 kandis, tuli peale avanemist $ 14,10 kanti, käis ka ära üle $ 14,40 taseme, aga on nüüd sisuliselt kogu plussi käest ära andnud ja kaupleb $ 14,16 kandis, 0,3% plusspoolel.



  • Moody's places Dubai Bank on review, direction uncertain
  • Vaata, kus on pühendumine. Kui kreeklased sama moodi mõtleks, siis oleks see jama ammu möödas.
    (JP) Japan's central govt employees to accept a 5-10% cut in salary and a 10% cut in bonuses to assist funding earthquake reconstruction - Nikkei News- cuts will start in July and last until FY13/14; to produce over ¥200B.

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