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Börsipäev 26. mai

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  • Euro on teiste valuutade suhtes näitamas taas tugevust pärast FT artiklit, milles mainiti, et Hiina valitsus ning teised Aasia investorid on huvitatud EFSF-i poolt Portugali päästmiseks emiteeritavate võlakirjade ostmisest, esindades olulist osa kogunõudlusest. EUR/USD kaupleb 0,6% kõrgemal @ 1,4170 USD ja eile ajaloo madalaimale tasemele kukkunud EUR/CHF vahetuskurss on kosunud 0,40% 1,2340 CHF peale. Leevenenud mure Euroopa pärast ning toorainete kallinemine on aidanud Aasia turgudel kõrgemale liikuda ning hetkel peegeldavad optimistlikuma meeleolu jätku ka USA futuurid, mis teevad päeva tippe ja kauplevad 0,3% plusspoolel.

    Makrost hoitakse täna silma peal USA esimese kvartali SKT revideeritud näidul (konsensus ootab tõstmist 1,8% pealt 2,0% peale, kuigi Morgan Stanley hinnangul indikeeris eilne märtsi ülespoole revideeritud kestvuskaupade tellimuste muutus, et SKT kasvu võidakse tõsta isegi 2,2% peale). Võib-olla isegi suuremat huvi võiks pakkuda eelmise nädala esmaste töötuabiraha taotluste number, mis alla 400K langedes annaks analüütikutele kindlustunnet maikuus 300K töökoha loomise prognoosimisel. Konsensus ootab initial claimsi numbriks täpselt 400K vs 409K eelneval nädalal. Kestvate töötuabiraha taotluste suurusjärguks oodatakse 3700K vs 3711K varasemal nädalal. Nii SKT kui ka tööturustatistika avalikustatakse kell 15.30.
  • Marc Faber arvab Bloombergi intervjuus, et Hiina näeb järgmise aasta jooksul majanduskasvu selget aeglustumist. Ühtlasi jagab ta oma mõtteid USA majandusväljavaate osas. Link
  • Meredith Whitney kapsaaeda puistati eile taas kive – USA osariikide maksutulud kasvasid käimasoleva aasta esimeses kvartalis 9.1%. Tegu on viimase 5 aasta suurima kasvuga. Maksutulud kasvasid viiendat kvartalit järjest 47 osariigis. Samas 3 aasta taguse ajaga võrreldes on maksutulud endiselt 3.1% madalamad.

    Kuigi uudist võib pidada positiivseks, siis paraku ei too lühiajaline tulude tõus osariikidele oluliselt leevendust. Suure osa kohustustest moodustavad nimelt riigitöötajate pensionifondid ning tervishoid, mistõttu nõuaks eelarvete tasakaalustamine pigem kulutuste kärpeid. Osariikide suurimad tuluallikad on tulumaks ja käibemaks, kuid omavalitsuste tulud pärinevad suuresti omandimaksudest, mis muudab nende olukorra oluliselt hullemaks. Omandimaksud langevad üldjuhul kinnisvara odavnemise korral vägagi aegsasti ning alles nüüd on näha esimesi märke omandimaksude langusest. Madalam maksumäär tähendab vähem tulusid.
  • Viimased kaks kuuud on soosinud kaitsvamat laadi sektoreid nagu esmatarbekaubad, telekom ja kommunaalteenused. Ent käesoleval nädalal on tsüklilisemad play'd taas mängu enda väljakule kiskuma hakanud ning jätnud näiteks XLP mitu päeva miinuspoolele. Kui sama trend peaks veel mõned päevad jätkuma, siis annaks see parema pildi sektorite võimalikust rotatsioonist investorite portfellides. Samas vaadates viimase aja nõrgenevat makropilti, siis ma natuke kõhklen trendi jätkumises, kui see just ei toimu QE3 ootuste suurenemise arvelt.
  • David Einhorn, kes on riskifond Greenlight Capitali president, soovitab Microsofti CEO Steve Ballmeril oma ametipostist loobuda, kuna tema sõnul on Ballmer ajast maha jäänud ning peamine põhjus, miks MSFT-i aktsia surve all on.
    Einhorn on tuntud eelkõige selle poolest, et teatas juba 2007. aasta suvel, et Lehman Brothers on alakapitaliseeritud ning ta on aktsias lühikeseks läinud. Teatavasti läks Lehman Brothers 2008. aasta sügisel pankrotti.
    Tänane Reuters kirjutab, et Greenlight Capital on ostnud viimasel ajal MSFT aktsiaid ja Einhorn ütles eile New Yorkis toimunud konverentsil, et Ballmer peaks kellegile teisele nüüd võimaluse andma ja sellest võimalusest on investorid omavahel tegelikult juba aastaid rääkinud.
  • Peamiselt ehete tootmise ja müügiga tegelev Tiffany&Co (TIF) teatas täna oma esimese kvartali tulemused, mis osutusid oodatust paremaks ning ühtlasi tõstis ka oma 2012. aasta prognoose.

    $TIF Q1 EPS of 67c, beats by 10c, sales $761M; raises FY12 EPS guidance from $3.35-$3.45 to $3.45-$3.55, vs. cons. $3.33
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GES +12.8%, HGG +11.0% (ticking higher), SMTC +7%, NTAP +4.4% (also upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), SIGM +4%, TIF +2.5%, HNZ +1.1%.

    Select financial related names showing strength: UBS +1.6%, ING +1.5%, DB +1.1%, BCS +1.1%, HBC +0.8%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SD +3.7% (confirmed it files registration statement for initial public offering of units of SandRidge permian trust), BP +1.6%, CEO +1.4%, E +1.2%, TOT +1%, RDS.A +0.9%, TOT +0.7%.

    Other news: CDTI +33.8% (receives orders to supply diesel retrofit products for CARB special compliance option), BCRX +9.3% (ticking higher, presents positive new analyses of BCX4208 Phase 2 Studies in patients with gout), ARNA +8.7% (presents meta-analyses of Phase 3 Trials showing obese and overweight patients taking Lorcaserin achieved statistically significant weight loss), GENE +7.9% (files new patent infringement suit in USA), LVLT +4.5% (Level 3 gets awarded $104.1 mln contract - Dept. of Defense ), NEOP +4% (announces sale of gamma detection device business to Devicor Medical Products), CTIC +2.9% (CTICD, Cell Therapeutics provides update on new product acquisition strategy), FDO +2.2% (Ackman at Ira Sohn- positive on GGP, FDO, and WMT), MSFT +0.9% (Fund manager David Einhorn, at Ira Sohn conf last night, says MSFT board should replace CEO Ballmer ), LTM +0.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: SQNS +4.1% (initiated with a Buy at Needham, initiated with a Outperform at Robert W. Baird), AEO +2.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at FBR Capital), HST +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman).
  • Q1 GDP- Second Estimate +1.8% vs +2.0% Briefing.com consensus; Prelim +1.8%
    Q1 GDP Deflator- Second Estimate +1.9% vs +1.9% Briefing.com consensus; Prelim +1.9%
    Initial Claims 424K vs 400K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 414K from 409K
    Continuing Claims falls to3.690 mln from 3.736 mln
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SIGM -12.1%, CSC -6.9%, (also files to delay its 10-K; investigation of the accounting irregularities in the Nordic region is not sufficiently complete), VLNC -6.3%, BIG -3.9% (also signs definitive agreement to acquire Canada's Liquidation World for ~$1.8 mln), NDN -0.8% (light volume).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SVM -3.2%, AG -2.1%, SLW -1.4%, SWC -1.0%, HL -1.0%, PAAS -0.9%, CDE -0.8%.

    Other news: EDE -18.9% (temporarily suspends dividend for 2 quarters due to impact of the devastating tornado; will not affect dividend paid of June 1 record date ), RIGL -5.2% (intends to offer and sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), XUE -3.7% (considering a proposed public offering by its pre-IPO shareholders; The offering will only consist of secondary shares to be sold by certain of XUE's pre-IPO shareholde), CREG -3.6% (files for $200 mln common stock shelf offering), ROVI -2.8% (discloses CEO to retire), CEL -2.1% (still checking), GNOM -0.8% (priced a 5.5 mln share common stock offering at $12.50/share).

    Analyst comments: RSH -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), LULU -1.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at FBR Capital), CRH -1.3% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup).
  • A Matter of Trust
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/26/2011 8:41 AM EDT

    "I trust everyone. I just don't trust the devil inside them."
    --Troy Kennedy-Martin in The Italian Job

    After a weak open, the market managed a slight oversold bounce on Wednesday. The bulls fizzled in the last 30 minutes, and it wasn't all the energetic of a move, but we were in positive territory and the buyers were sniffing around for a change.

    The selloff over the past week was sharp enough that an oversold bounce wasn't all that surprising. In fact, it wouldn't be a surprise if it continues and brings further gains. But how much can we trust this market to produce further upside at this point?

    Many players are conditioned to quickly regain their optimism when the market bounces because once the indices have righted themselves, they tend to keep trending up. I'm sure I don't have to point out all the V-shaped bounces that have occurred over the last two years to illustrate this point. Just look at what happened in March and April, when the market looked ready to start downtrending more aggressively: it reversed and went straight back up to recent highs.

    Plenty of people, including me, would have bet that this sort of V-shaped bounce without a pause wouldn't happen again, but we would have been dead wrong. For some reason, this market has had this capacity to suddenly shrug off the negatives and act like everything is fine.

    This time, the pullback has been a bit different as it was driven partly by a trend change in the U.S. dollar. The dollar has strengthened sharply against the euro and that has caused some major sector rotation. In addition, the average stock has acted much more poorly than the major indices indicate, so the market isn't nearly as healthy as it has been in the past. Of course, negative summer seasonality is another issue that needs to be considered.

    Right now, this market is all about whether or not we trust a bounce. My trust level is quite low. I'm going to try to play some upside moves in the short term, but I'm going to be very watchful for signs that we are rolling back over. Quite often, these countertrend bounces can continue for a few days, which is long enough for bulls to feel safe again -- but that is when things become the most dangerous.

    The best advice I can give right now is to stay skeptical of the upside. This market has obviously been dealing with some increased negatives lately, and while we may temporarily set them aside for a few days, we have to be aware that they could kick in again at any time. With volume likely to thin out in front of the Memorial Day holiday, there is a greater likelihood of volatility, so we need to keep our guard up and not be complacent about this market.

    We have very slow action this morning with little news flow so far. The tone is slightly positive, but we'll see what the reaction is now that the weekly unemployment claims are out.
  • Näen, et BMO Capital Markets on andnud Osta soovituse täna koos $ 65 hinnasihiga, aga pole paraku ise seda veel jõudnud lugeda. Samas aktsia liikumist vaadates, on tugevus tõenäoliselt tingitud eile avaldatud oodatust parematest tulemustest ja prognoosist.
  • Karuse nägemuse poolest tuntud David Rosenberg toob välja seitse globaalset riski, mida tasub hetkel enim jälgida - link loole siin.
  • The Fed purchased $6.03 bln of 2015-2016 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $18.80 bln

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