LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 31. mai

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Pärast vaikset nädala algust on turud täna näitamas juba märksa suuremaid liikumisi eeskätt uudise peale, et Euroopa Liidu ametnikud on välistanud Kreeka võla restruktureerimise ning kavatsevad järgmise kuu lõpus arutada uue laenupaketi tingimusi. WSJ on sellest kirjutanud pikema loo. USA futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,6% kõrgemal ning Euroopa indeksite futuurid liiguvad 0,8% plussis.

    Tänane makrokalender saab olema võrdlemisi tihe. Kell 9.00 raporteeritakse Saksamaa aprillikuu jaemüük, kell 10.55 Saksa tööturu statistika, kell 12.00 eurotsooni mai inflatsiooninäit ja aprilli töötuse määr. USA poolel aga oodatakse taaskord pehmet Case-Shilleri kinnisvarahindade indeksit (kell 16.00), Chicago PMI peaks näitama autotoodangu languse tõttu tugevat kukkumist (kell 16.45) ning maikuu tarbijausaldus peegeldama kerget sentimendi paranemist (kell 17.00).
  • Allolev postitus kuulub kahtlemata rubriiki „Fed bashing has become a sport“

    Loetud päevad tagasi oli Fed sunnitud avaldama Bloombergile andmeid seoses senitundmatu stiimulprogrammiga ST OMO (inglise k. "single-tranche open market operations"). Selgelt ei olnud Fed huvitatud informatsiooni jagamisest, kuid tänu „Freedom of Information“ seadusele oli Fed kohustatud sooviga nõustuma. Paraku ei läinud kõik nii libedalt, kui loodetud – Fed ulatas Bloombergi töötajale 29 000 lehekülge dokumente, kuhu olid hoolikalt ära peidetud allolevad graafikud.



    Iga punane tulp tähistab, kui mitu miljadit dollarit laenas nimetatud pank Fedilt ühel päeval ST OMO programmi raames. Olgu öeldud, et laenud anti sisuliselt olematu nominaalintressiga ehk laenumääraks oli vaid 0.01% (ajal, kui repomäär oli 0.5%). Bloombergi analüütikute sõnul oli programmi suurimaks laenajaks Credit Suisse $45 miljardiga. Oluliselt ei jäänud CS-ist maha ka Deutsche Bank ja Greenwich (nüüdne RBS). Küsimus on selles, et kuidas suudab Fed põhjendada sisemajanduse stimuleerimist, kui suur osa laenudest läks Euroopa pankadele. Kusjuures ST OMO tuli üllatusena ka USA kongressile ning Euroopa riikidele – tagantjärele tuleks neil saata Bernankele tänukiri.
  • Kuigi Saksamaa jaemüük kasvas eelmise kuuga võrreldes 0,6%, tööpuudus vähenes 8000 inimese võrra ja analüütikute ootustele jäid need numbrid alla (prognoositi vastavalt +1,8% ja -30 000), siis valuutaturul näib jätkuvalt fookuses olevat pigem Kreeka uus abipakett, mis aitaks riigil maksejõuetust vältida.
  • Maikuus aeglustus eurotsoonis hinnatõus aprilliga võrreldes 2,8% pealt 2,7% peale. Kuigi keskpangal lubab see teadmine veidi kergemalt hingata, siis sellele vaatamata usutakse, et juulis tuleb järjekordne intressi tõstmine.

    Eurotsooni töötusemäär püsis aprillis 9,9% peal.
  • J.P.Morgan on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Goldman Sachs (GS) kohta.
    JPM tõstab GS-i reitingu „Hoia“ pealt „Osta“ peale koos $ 175 hinnasihiga.


    We had a group meeting with GS Vice chairman and Co-CEO of GS Intl. Michael Sherwood, and conclude the firm’s strategy is clear and recent negative newsflow impact on franchise over-discounted. Based on our own analysis we see material re-leveraging potential.

    Peale kohtumist juhtkonnaga on JPM analüütikud veendunud, et ettevõtte strateegia on kindel ja viimase aja negatiivsed uudised on ületähtsustatud.

    GS has lost $12bn or 15% in market cap since the Senator Carl Levin-led Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released its report on the financial crisis. The stock had lost $12bn in market cap post the SEC charge of fraud in structuring and marketing of CDO in April 2010, till a settlement for $550mn was reached with the SEC in July 2010. We believe the market is again over- reacting to the negative newsflow. In our view, the price weakness is a buying opportunity.

    GS-i turukapitalisatsioon on vähenenud 15% võrra alates sellest ajast, kui USA valitsus algatas finantskriisiga seotud uurimise. Analüütikute arvates on turuosalised antud juhul siiski sündmusi liialt negatiivselt tõlgendanud ning JPM arvates pakub antud hinnatase head ostukohta.

    We are not particularly concerned about the negative implications of any management change at the firm which might happen as a fallout of the ongoing litigations as we believe the partnership model gives GS enough of a talent pool to find a suitable replacement for any such management changes. In a nutshell, global Tier I IBs such as GS are ‘machines’ with a unique Partnership model that does not rely on individuals.

    Samuti ei heiduta JPM analüütikuid võimalikud muutused juhtkonnas, sest nende sõnul on GS piisavalt suur ettevõte, kus talentidest puudust ei tule ning firma käekäik ei sõltu üksikisikutest.

    Compensation adjustment – undiscounted in our forecast: Compensation adjustment is another important lever which could potentially be used by management to improve ROE. Pre-crisis the group used to run with a mid to high 40s comp ratio (average 47% in the period 1999-2008), which has come down to c.40% post-crisis. We estimate comp/revenue ratio of 39% in 2012E in our estimates compared to 39% for the group in 2010 (ex UK bonus tax). 1% reduction in comp/revenue ratio would improve 2012E RONAV in our estimates by another 40bps. Even after this adjustment, GS IB employees would remain amongst the best paid employees, with cost/head of c.$414k in 2012E compared to c.$431k in 2010 ex the UK bonus tax. We do not see GS employees leaving the industry or being attracted to competitors.

    Lisaks eelnevale usuvad analüütikud, et firma lisatasude kohandamine on veel üks võimalus, mis lubab ettevõttel parandada ROE-d. Kuigi lisatasud on vähenenud, siis JPM ei usu, et see mingil moel vähendaks GS väärtust tööandjana, sest isegi peale kärpeid on GS töötajate palgad ühed kõrgemad.

    Teatavasti pani Dick Bove`i reitingumuutus 12. mail GS aktsia müügisurve alla ning aktsia on siiani püsinud üsna nõrk. Antud upgrade võib sellest tulenevalt ka turuosalistele huvi pakkuda, aga selle calli juures on üks häiriv asjaolu, nimelt on ostusoovituse andnud JPM Euroopa analüüsiosakond, mis kahtlemata võib vähendada reitingumuutuse mõju.

  • Gapping up
    M&A news: CV +38.0% (Central Vermont Public to be acquired by Fortis for $35.10 per shares).

    Select financial related names showing strength: BBVA +3.4%, DB +2.9%, STD +1.7%, ING +1.7%, HBC +1.5%, CS +0.9%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +2.3%, GOLD +1.9%, VALE +1.9%, SLV +1.8%, BHP +1.4%, BBL +1.4%, AA +1.3%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength:
    STO +3.9%, CEO +2.8%, RDS.A +2.6%, E +2.5%, TOT +2.6%, RIG +2.5%, BP +1.9%.

    A Few solar names are ticking higher: TAN +6.6%, LDK +5.4%, YGE +4.7%, JASO +2.3%, TSL +2.2%, SOL +2.1%, CSIQ +1.9%.

    Other news: YMI +10.8% (receives Orphan Drug designation for JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor CYT387 in Europe), CDTI +6.5% (continued strength), SI +5.3% (Germany announces it will discontinue the use of all nuclear energy by 2022; country will implement the use of more renewable energies as a replacement), OPTR +4% (continued volatility after FDA approves treatment for Clostridium difficile infection), MDCO +3.9% (Standard & Poor's Announces Change to U.S. Index, MDCO to be added to the S&P 600).

    Analyst comments: RDN +4.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), POT +2.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), FOE +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), MOS +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), NVDA +1.8% (resumed with a Buy at Auriga), BRCM +1.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), GS +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), EBAY +0.7% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KONE -31.3%, NOK -8.5%.

    Other news: IRE -6% (still checking), CBLI -5.2% (provides update on CBLB502; says BARDA has indicated that further contract-related negotiations will require clarification of the development path for CBLB502 with the FDA), AVGO -3.1% (Avago Tech announces sale of 25 mln shares by selling shareholders).

    Analyst comments: MDT -0.8% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Argus).
  • March Case-Shiller 20-city Index -3.6% vs Briefing.com consensus -3.4%
  • The ABCs of a 'V'-Shaped Move
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/31/2011 8:23 AM EDT

    I believe in the dollar. Everything I earn, I spend!
    -- Joan Crawford

    If there is any doubt about what is the main driving force behind this market lately, the action this morning should make a clear. Talk that Germany is ready with a rescue plan for Greece has spiked up the euro against the dollar, and that is causing substantial strength in oil, commodities and the market. As far as the market is concerned, it's a race to the bottom between the euro and the dollar, and the dollar is winning. Nothing much else matters right now. A weak dollar equals a strong market. That is all you need to know.

    While it is always helpful to understand the driving forces behind the market, it doesn't always make it easier to trade. In this case if you can predict the movement of the euro and the dollar, you're in good shape -- but if you aren't an expert in currencies, the action just appears to be random.

    While the fundamental picture is pretty easy to understand -- just look at the dollar -- the technical picture is much more challenging. Technically there isn't anything to suggest that the market should have sustained upside from here. The charts are not all that great after the three-day low-volume bounce we had last week.

    The S&P 500 has been trending lower since the first the May. Since then we have had two failed bounces that led to lower lows, and we are now in the middle of the third bounce. On Friday we managed to move back over the 50-day simple moving average at 1329, a level that will be important going forward.

    Once again the question for this market is "to 'V' or not to 'V.'" As I've discussed numerous times, this market has had a strong propensity to bounce straight back up after a breakdown since the lows in March 2009. Dozens of times we've suddenly forgotten our fears and worries and bounced right back.

    It isn't all that odd that we would run back up. What is surprising is the manner in which we tend to do so. We don't have much hesitancy or back-and-forth action. We just jump straight back up without a pause. That squeezes the bears and causes the underinvested bulls to scramble and tends to accentuate the straight-up action.

    I am skeptical of the market's ability to keep on producing these "V"-shaped moves. We are entering a slower time of the year, economic reports have not been very good lately and QE2 is scheduled to come to an end. Fundamental conditions appear to be different, but when it comes to technical patterns, they tend to keep on repeating until market players finally kill them.

    In any event we have another euro/dollar-produced "V"-shaped move kicking in this morning. Typically we tend to hold on to these beginning-of-the-week gains pretty well, but disciplined traders have to take some profits into this sort of move.

    Keep an eye on the lows we hit in the first hour of trading. If we stay above that level, I won't be in any big hurry to fade this market. It may not make sense that we keep seeing these "V"-shaped moves, but we'd be fools not to recognize how strong the tendency for them has been.
  • May Chicago PMI 56.6 vs 62.5 Briefing.com consensus; April 67.6
  • May Consumer Confidence 60.8 vs 66.3 Briefing.com consensus; April 65.4
  • Täna õhtul (USA aja järgi) hääletatakse esindajatekojas taaskord võlalimiidi tõstmise poolt ja vastu. Zerohedge tsiteerib Goldmani analüütikuid, kelle hinnangul hääletavad kõik vabariiklased seaduse vastu ning demokraadid enamasti poolt - kuna vabariiklastel on enamus, siis ilmselgelt seadust vastu ei võeta. Sisuliselt on tegemist probleemi teadvustamisega (et meelest ära ei läheks) ning õige töö algab alles homme, kui Obama kohtub vabariiklastega. Lõpptulemus on see, et paari kuu möödudes hääletavad vabariiklased seaduse poolt ning võlalimiiti tõstetakse (musternäide Ameerika poliitikast).
  • The Fed purchased $1.92 bln of 2028-2041 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $7.12 bln
  • GS call jäi täna küll natuke lahjaks, aga sellegipoolest pakkus avanemisel ilusa põrkemängu. Aktsia avanes $ 140,82 pealt ja liikus kiirelt peale avanemist üle $ 142 taseme, mis paraku on siiani jäänud ka päeva tipuks, kuna aktsiat on koos turuga alla müüdud. Hetkel kaupleb GS $ 140,70 kandis, 1,5% plusspoolel.




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