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Börsipäev 3. juuni

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  • Kell 15.30 raporteeritav USA tööturu statistika jääb ilmselt tänase päeva kõige tugevamaks sentimendi mõjutajaks. Kui veel möödunud nädalal ootas konsensus väljaspool põllumajandussektorit loodud töökohtade suurusjärguks üle 200K siis pärast kolmapäevast ADP-d ja muud makrot jääb konsensuse ootus nüüd 169K peale. Maikuu tööpuuduseks prognoositakse 9,0% ehk aprilli baasil tõusu 0,1 protsendipunkti võrra.

    Payrollide kõrval võiks veidi huvi pakkuda ka teenustesektori PMI indeksid, mida mitmel pool üle maailma avaldatakse. Kell 11.00 teatatakse eurotsooni vastav näitaja, kell 11.30 Suurbritannia oma ja kell 17.00 USA ISM.

    USA futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% madalamal, Euroopa on aga avanemas kerges plussis.
  • Lõik Groupon'i S-1 raportist (FT Alphaville):

    We incurred net losses of $389.6 million and $102.7 million in 2010 and the first quarter of 2011, respectively, and had an accumulated deficit of $522.1 million as of March 31, 2011. We anticipate that our operating expenses will increase substantially in the foreseeable future as we continue to invest to increase our subscriber base, increase the number and variety of deals we offer each day, expand our marketing channels, expand our operations, hire additional employees and develop our technology platform.

    Ettevõte teenis möödunud aastal $280 miljonit brutokasumit, kuid tegevuskulud ulatusid $700 miljonile. Sarnaselt LinkedIn'iga on paraku sellise ettevõtte väärtuse hindamine puhas spekuleerimine.
  • Saksamaa PMI teenustesektori indeksi lõplik näit tuli 56,1 vs oodatud 54,9 punkti.
  • Eilses börsipäeva foorumis mainis Alari, et Moody’s on USA võlalmiidi tõstmist puudutavatest küsimustest kinni haaranud ning paari nädala möödudes võib reitinguagentuur käivitada praeguse „stable“ väljavaate nii-öelda uuesti hindamise protsessi. Kuigi Moody’s on USA suhtes ka varem negatiivseid kommentaare jaganud, siis eilse pressiteate ei tee mitte huvitavaks nende nägemus, vaid sellega kaasnevad põhjendused.

    Kui võlalimiiti ei tõsteta paari nädala pärast ei tõsteta alustab Moody’s väljavaate uuesti hindamise protsessi. Mäletatavasti teatas Geithner, et võlalimiiti tuleb tõsta enne 2. augustit, kuna just siis lõppeb võimalus „manööverdada“ riigitöötajate pensionifondidega (võlakoorem kasvab liialt kiiresti). Paraku ma ei usu, et vabariiklased nõustuvad võlalimiiti tõstma enne juuli lõppu. Samas on ka demokraatidel enne uusi presidendivalimisi sisuliselt võimatu kulutuste kärpeks olulisi samme astuda, kuna teatavasti on seaduste kinnitamiseks vaja nõusolekut nii esindajatekojast, senatist kui ka presidendilt.

    Moody’s:
    „A credible agreement on substantial deficit reduction would support a continued stable outlook; lack of such an agreement could prompt Moody’s to change its outlook to negative on the Aaa rating.“
  • Eurotsooni PMI teenustesektori indeksi lõplik näit tuli samuti parem: 56,0 vs oodatud 55,4. PMI koondindeks tuli 55,8 vs ooodatud 55,4. EURUSD hetkel -0,1% ja kaupleb 1,4475 tasemel.
  • Suurbritannia teenuste PMI jäi aga veidi alla, olles 53,8 versus oodatud 54,2 (aprillis 54,3 punkti)
  • Kristjan Kaar
    Lõik Groupon'i S-1 raportist (FT Alphaville):

    We incurred net losses of $389.6 million and $102.7 million in 2010 and the first quarter of 2011, respectively, and had an accumulated deficit of $522.1 million as of March 31, 2011. We anticipate that our operating expenses will increase substantially in the foreseeable future as we continue to invest to increase our subscriber base, increase the number and variety of deals we offer each day, expand our marketing channels, expand our operations, hire additional employees and develop our technology platform.

    Ettevõte teenis möödunud aastal $280 miljonit brutokasumit, kuid tegevuskulud ulatusid $700 miljonile. Sarnaselt LinkedIn'iga on paraku sellise ettevõtte väärtuse hindamine puhas spekuleerimine.


    Grouponi numbrid on tõesti kehvad. Veel mõnda aega tagasi räägiti meedias, et tegu "wildly profitable" äriga.
  • Groupon võiks panna müüki kupongid oma aktsiatele, deal of the day!
  • The Street veebilehel on artikkel, kus arutletakse selle üle, miks Apple peaks stock-spliti tegema. Artikli autor Jason Schwarz kirjutab, et vaatamata AAPL-i madalale valuatsioonile ja suurele kasvupotentsiaalile on aktsia jäänud mitmeks kuuks sisuliselt ühele tasemele loksuma. Artikli autori arvates ongi aktsia hind see, mis investorid eemale peletab. Ta toob näiteks Baidu (BIDU), mis tegi möödunud aastal 10:1 stock-spliti ja tänaseks on aktsiahind kahekordistunud. On kaheldav, kas BIDU maksaks täna $ 1400, kui stock-splitti poleks tehtud.
    Kuigi stock-split sisuliselt aktsiale mingit lisaväärtust juurde ei anna, siis Schwarz usub, et investorid tunneks ennast näiteks $ 35 AAPL aktsiahinna juures paremini ning eeldus, et AAPL võiks maksta mõne aja pärast $ 70 paistaks märksa reaalsem, kui $ 700 hinnasiht praeguse $ 350 taseme juures.
    Kes usub, et stock-split muudaks AAPL-i aktsia atraktiivsemaks, siis võib oma arvamusest teada anda Apple`i meeskonnale, kes investorsuhetega tegelevad ja artiklis on selle tarbeks olemas ka vastav link.
  • Eile avaldas Muddy Waters ehk Hiina ettevõtete pettusskeemide paljastamisega hoogsalt kuulsust kogunud analüüsimaja taaskord ühe raporti, mille põhjalikkus on uskumatu. Raporti koostamisse kaasati 10 analüütikut, kelle põhitööks oli 2 kuu jooksul skeemide „lahkamine“.

    Muddy Waters alustas eile Sino-Forest Corp. (TRE.TO, OTC: SNOFF) katmist hinnasihiga <$1.00, mille peale langes ettevõtte aktsia (SNOFF) USAs ca 56%. Analüüsi saab tasuta lugeda siit.

    Analüütikud iseloomustavad SNOFF-i järgmiselt: Sino-Forest Corp is the granddaddy of China RTO frauds.“ Sisuliselt pärinevad ettevõtte tulud vahendajatelt, kelleks on SNOFF-i kliendid. Tegemist on skeemiga, mis võimaldas raporteerida müügitulu ning samaaegselt väita, et käibemaksu on kohustatud tasuma vahendajad – väite õigsust on peaaegu võimatu kontrollida, kuna admetele ligipääs puudub. Samuti on ettevõte ülehinnanud oma varabaasi – ettevõtte kohaselt on nad 2006. aastast saati investeerinud ca $2.9 miljardit puitu, kuid Muddy Waters analüütikute hinnangul oli tegelik investeering ca $800 miljoni võrra väiksem. Skeemi kaasati ka Poyry usaldusväärsuse tõstmiseks. Poyry avaldas valuatsiooni analüüse, kuigi ligipääs oli neil vaid 0.3% raporteeritud puiduvarudele. Tegu on huvitava analüüsiga, mille lugemiseks tasuks aega varuda.

    SNOFF viimase 3 päeva aktsiagraafik (Bloomberg)

  • Börsipäeva alguses mainisin Moody’s poolt väljastatud raportit ning seda, et reitinguagentuur võib USA väljavaadet muuta, kui vabariiklased ja demokraadid ei jõua kärbete osas kokkuleppele.

    Goldman Sachs avaldas täna raporti, milles analüüsitakse valitsuse poolt tehtud kärpeid enne ja pärast presidendivalimisi. Goldman: „...if the past is any guide, an approaching presidential election does tend to limit the degree of tightening.“ Alloleval graafikul on kujutatud USA valitsuse neto kulutused/kokkuhoid protsentuaalsena SKP-st vahemikul 1961 – 2008. Analüütikud kirjutavad, et ajalooliselt on 2/3 juhtudest USA valitsus kulutusi tõstnud pärast presidendi 4-aastase ametiaja teist aastat. Arvestades seda, et vabariiklastel on enamus esindajatekojas, siis eelmise postituse kinnituseks ilmselt käimasolev aasta olulisi kärpeid kaasa ei too.


    Allikas: Goldman Sachs Research
  • Zerohedge’is ilmus eile humoorikas postitus Pandora plaani kohta korraldada IPO, mida saab lugeda siit.

    “(Pandora) would attempt to raise publicly up to $142 million at a price of $7-9/share for 13.7 million shares…Pandora would retain at most $45 million in cash from the offering. But the stunner is that assuming the offering closes, the 13.7 million pro forma float is a laughable 8.6%....Pandora would have a ridiculous valuation of $1.1-$1.4 billion!”

    And what are the multiples: well, Q1 revenue was a healthy $51 million growing about 100% Y/Y from $22 million a year earlier, so about $200 million annualized. Ok: a 5-7 revenue multiple for a dot com 2.0 company, we'll buy it. The problem is that total costs and expenses increased by the same amount Y/Y: from $24 million to $56 million. Ergo, EBITDA, forget net income, was a negative $6.8 million in Q1. Annualized, this is, well, negative, meaning the company will have an EV/EBITDA that is N/M and at best #Ref!.
  • Mõned huvitavad reitingu muudatused:

    Barclay Capital on täna tõstnud Aruba Networks (ARUN) reitingut ja target $33. Aktsia on üsna volatiilne ja viimased ajad olnud korraliku surve all.

    Universal Display initiated with Buy at Goldman
    Eile tegi aktsia läbi suure kukkumise, mida seostatakse Jaapanis kaotatud 3-me patendi kohtuasjaga. Tehniline pilt on üsna kole, kuid analüüsimajad on positiivsed ja targetid valdavalt pealpool $50.
    Neg. kommentaarid ka väljas:
    Universal Display (PANL) target lowered to $39 at Canaccord Genuity after patents challanged

    Pharmasset (VRUS) tgt raised to $200 from $71 at Citigroup, eile alustas Brean Murray aktsia katmist Buy ja target $174
    JPMorgan tõstis 24. mai samuti targeti $200 peale, kuid siis jäi reaktsioon lahjaks.

    Iridium Communications (IRDM) initiated with Buy at Merriman
  • OREXi investorite üleeilne rõõm tänase konverentsikõne üle oli enneaegne. Nagu oli ka karta

    - OREX says DMEP advised trial would not adequately address the approval deficiency; requests pre-approval; OREX to appeal
    - OREX to put on hold further clinical development for its obesity programs in until clear& feasible path to approval is identified
    - OREX told its proposed cardio outcomes trial will NOT address approval deficiency, requires pre-approval cardiovascular outcomes trial

    Kokkuvõtlikult: OREX on praeguse seisuga surnud firma. 36% kukkumine eelturul pole sugugi veel põhi
  • May Nonfarm Payrolls 54K vs 169K Briefing.com consensus; April revised to 232K from 244K
    March Nonfarm payrolls revised to 194K from 235K
    May Average Workweek 33.6 vs 34.3 Briefing.com consensus
    May Hourly Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus
    May Nonfarm Private Payroll 83K vs 180K Briefing.com consensus
    May Unemployment Rate 9.1% vs 9.0% Briefing.com consensus
  • SP futuurid hetkega 12 punkti alla
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CASC +14.2%, ZQK +13% (also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), COO +2.5%.

    M&A news: ATV +18.1% (Bireme commences tender offer to acquire ordinary shares and ADS of ATV in an amount not to exceed 20 mln ordinary shares; offer price is $2.00/Ordinary Share, which represents $6.00/ADS, in cash, without interest).

    Other news: SOLR +6.1% (receives $460.4 mln order for advanced sapphire crystallization furnaces; order will be included in backlog for its current 1Q12), WWVY +4.9% (announces agreement with Verizon Wireless of the East LP), TSLA +4.3% (has priced and fully allocated its follow-on offering of 5,300,000 shares of common stock at a price to the public of $28.76 per share), CVI +3.8% (Appaloosa discloses 8.26% stake, or ~7.1 mln shares, in 13G filing), CYTK +2.9% (announces successful completion of phase IIA Evidence of Effect clinical trial of CK-2017357), XIDE +2% (modestly rebounding from yesterday's 2+ pt drop), NYX +1.8% (light volume, still checking), SI +1.3% (still checking for anything specific).

    Analyst comments: DRYS +7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), PANL +2.6% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman), FRX +1.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan), AVGO +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at Sterne Agee), NE +0.5% (ticking higher, upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BTH -9.2% (ticking lower), NWL -8.6%, DRWI -8.4%, NOA -5.4% (light volume), SAI -2.6%, DMND -1.6%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -4.3%, RBS -2.7%, LYG -2.5%, ING -2.4%, BCS -2.4%, STD -1.8%, HBC -1.4%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: RIO -2.5%, BBL -2.2%, BHP -2.2%, MT -2.2%, GOLD -1.3%, SLV -0.9%, SLW -0.8%, GFI -0.7%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness:
    BP -1.7%, SDRL -1.5%, TOT -1%, STO -0.4%.

    A few European drug names ticking lower:
    SNY -1.2%, AZN -0.7%

    Other news: OREX -30.8% (provides a regulatory update on Contrave NDA; based on DMEP's feedback, Orexigen plans to appeal DMEP's responses through the formal dispute resolution process ), VVUS -6.3% (trading lower with OREX), ANTH -2.9% (announces a common stock offering), ACI -2.1% (prices 48.0 mln shares of common stock at $27 per share).

    Analyst comments: DQ -4.3% (initiated with Sell at Collins Stewart), ALL -2.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), SWKS -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Sterne Agee), FDO -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), FRO -1.9% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo ), DSX -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).
  • No End in Sight
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/3/2011 8:24 AM EDT

    "The hardest work in the world is being out of work."
    --Whitney Young Jr.

    If you want to make money in the market there is nothing more important than being aware of the prevailing trend. Forget fundamentals, the news flow, valuations and everything else. As long as you are aware of the overall trend and stick with it until it clearly shifts, you have the potential to do well.

    Right now, the market is stuck in a downtrend. It topped out about a month ago and has had three failed bounces since. Thursday, the S&P 500 hit its lowest point since mid-April and oversold enough for a bounce, but the buyers just weren't interested, probably in part due to nerves over the monthly jobs report due this morning.

    If you want an explanation as to why the market is trending down, it isn't too difficult to figure out. According to SentimenTrader.com, the recent economic news has missed expectations this badly only four other times in the past eight years. We also have the on-going problem in Greece, which seems to produce a new and then denied bailout rumor every day lately. Probably the most important news and biggest worry is the conclusion of the Fed's Quantitative Easing program. Some are hopeful the Fed will continue to supply great amounts of liquidity, as it has for a couple years, but market players are obviously growing skeptical about how much longer the printing press will run.

    So we have a clear downtrend and plenty of negative news lately, which actually isn't a bad setup for a bounce should we have a disappointing jobs report this morning. If there's a gap down on the news, I'll be looking for the dip buyers to be active as they hope that the bad news has already been priced in. Market players are very worried about a poor unemployment report, especially after an ADP jobs report earlier this week that was quite disappointing.

    While conditions are oversold and negative enough for a decent reflexive bounce, we can't forget the fact that this is a downtrend. In a downtrend you have to be selling into strength rather than chasing it. You can't trust the upside to be sustained. Strength should be used as an opportunity to reposition. It is not the time to build up long-term positions.

    The easiest mistake to make in a downtrend is to constantly be looking for a bottom. While it can be very profitable to trade countertrend moves, you should make the market prove itself before you conclude that the overall trend has shifted. I'm constantly watching for what I call a "change in character." Until that occurs, I will give the benefit of the doubt to the prevailing trend. Right now, I see no reason to assume that the downtrend is about to end. We could easily see a decent bounce and have a number of positive days, but the downtrend that started in early May needs to be respected until the character of the action shifts again.

    We'll see what the employment report brings this morning. The mood is negative enough that we can see a bounce, especially if the news is bad and there's an initial selloff. I'll be worried that strength won't last for long if we have a positive response to the numbers. Too many people have been caught in this pullback this week and I suspect they will be looking for exits into strength even if the jobs report isn't terrible.
  • Panen siia ka graafiku, kuidas futuurid on oodatust kehvema tööjõuraporti peale reageerinud. Seejuures sellisele kukkumisele eelnes juba kolmapäeval toimunud selle aasta suurim languspäev, kuna ADP raport andis märku, et tänane number võib üsna kole tulla.


    Igal juhul kinnitab raport teemat, mida oleme ka siin börsipäevas korduvalt esile toonud – globaalne majanduskasv on aeglustumas ja seda mitte ainult USAs, vaid ka globaalse kasvu jaoks tähtsatel arenevatel turgudel (peamiselt siis Hiinas).
  • Nõustun Miku poolt öelduga 100%liselt ning omaltpoolt lisan veel USA tööturgu iseloomustava graafiku (Bloomberg). Teisisõnu, kui sa USAs töötuks jääd, siis keskmiselt ca 40 nädala pärast võid loota, et õnn pöördub ja sa leiad töö - 44% kõikidest töötutest on tööta olnud üle 6 kuu. Ei ole just märkimisväärne tulemus majanduse kohta, mille viimased stiimulprogrammid on ka kohe-kohe lõppemas.

  • Veidi positiivsemat makrot, mis aitab turgu toetada.

    May ISM Services 54.6 vs 53.5 Briefing.com consensus; April 52.8
  • Zero Hedge vahendusel graafik, mis iseloomustab, kui palju peaks USA majandus uusi töökohti iga kuu looma (66 kuud järjest), et jõuda tagasi 2007. aasta detsembri töötusmäära tasemele.

  • Kui Kristjan tegi eelnevalt juttu Muddy Watersi callist Sino-Foresti (SNOFF) kohta, mis aktsia põrmu saatis, siis Zerohedge vahendusel võib lugeda, et antud aktsias omas postsiooni ka John Paulsoni fond, mis nüüd on 24 tunni jooksul kaotanud rohkem kui $ 500 miljonit.
  • The Fed purchased $6.94 bln of 2018-2021 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $11.61 bln
  • CMS Energy (CMS) sees quick pop as takeover rumor makes the rounds
  • Täna tehakse EBIX aktsiaga üsna kummalisi liikumisi. Päeva alguses käis aktsia väga sügavas languses $16.50 tasemel, uudiseid ei paistnud languse taga olevat.
    Ebix reaffirms positive outlook for the year 2011
    Co reaffirmed a positive outlook for the year 2011 and beyond. The Company decided to issue this release in response to the sudden stock price drop today. Co reaffirms financial health is in better shape than ever, as reflected in operating cash flows of $52.8 mln in 2010. Co continues to generate strong cash flows and expects to post strong cash flow growth numbers in 2011. Co expects to continue to be consistent in its growth trajectory in 2011. The co's sales bookings continue to be strong with Exchange transactions numbers continuing to improve quarter over quarter. The co posted GAAP operating margins of 39% and non-GAAP operating margins of 43% in Q1 of 2011. The Company is focused on growing its operating margins and is looking at the 43% operating margin number as a new benchmark for itself. Co is not aware of anything negative within the Company that should result in a sudden price drop. Co also confirmed that it has continued to buy back its stock from the market as per the allowed guidelines. The Company reiterated that while it already has a share buyback authorization from the Board for $45 mln, the Ebix Board is committed to increasing the authorization once the Company utilizes this buyback authorization of $45 mln.
  • Penson Worldwide (PNSN): Hearing takeover chatter making the rounds; providing this late boost to shares

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