LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 29. juuni

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Vaatamata kaadritele Ateena tänavatelt, jätkatakse globaalsetel turgudel kauplemist optimistlikus meeleolus, kuna üha kindlamalt tuntakse end tänase hääletustulemuse suhtes. Lisaks on Prantsusmaa pankade järel oma põhimõttelise nõusoleku rullida üle Kreeka võlga andnud ka Saksamaa finantsasutused, mis vähendab default riski.

    Kusagil kella 19-20.00 ajal õhtul (kõige varasemalt võib otsus tulla 16.30 aga tõenäoliste pauside ja viivituste tõttu pakutakse hilisemat aega) peaks Kreeka võtma vastu otsuse uue kärpekava osas, mida täna õige hoolsalt ka jälgitakse. Seda enam, et makro poole pealt jääb kalender võrdlemisi hõredaks, kui tänastest uudistest võiks välja tuua vaid USA olemasolevate majade maikuu müügi kell 17.00.

    Euroopa indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,5% kõrgemal, USA omad on aga hetkel veel marginaalses miinuses.
  • Eile õhtul teatas Muddy Waters Research, et nad on alustanud Spreadtrum Communications Inc. (SPRD) katmist – kui sama liigutuse oleks teinud mõni „bulge bracket“ pank, siis oleks aktsia suure tõenäosusega tõusnud, kuid Carson Blocki poolt juhitava tiimi ainuüksi 15 küsimusega järelpärimine tegevdirektorilt (Leo Li) tingis päevasiseselt ca 35%-lise aktsiahinna languse. Päeva lõpus sulgus SPRD 3.54% miinuses (järelturul -2.16%).

    Lühidalt öeldes seab Muddy Waters ettevõtte SEC failingud kahtluse alla – Ping Wu ehk ettevõtte kunagine tegevdirektor lahkus SPRD-st 2009. aasta veebruaris, kuna nõukogu kaotas tema vastu usalduse. Aastatel 2007 – 2009 oli SPRD müügitulu kasv olematu, kuid aasta pärast CEO vahetumist kasvas SPRD müügitulu 229.6%. Q3 2009 müügitulu kasvas q-o-q baasil aga koguni 136.6%. Richard Wei ehk SPRD kunagine CFO lahkus ettevõttest 2009. aasta aprillis. Analüüsimaja täpseid tähelepanekuid saab lugeda siit.

    Küll aga juhiksin tähelepanu SEC-i teadetele. Eile käivitus SEC-i rule 201 ehk Alternative Uptick reegel, mis piirab lühikeseks müügi, kui aktsia on päevasiseselt langenud 10%. Kui vaadata sügavamalt SEC-i teadetesse, siis SPRD lühikeseks müüki on juunis piiratud päris mitmel korral.

    *28. juuni – SEC Short Sale Rule 201 in Effect
    *21. juuni – SEC Short Sale Rule 201 Continued
    *20. juuni - SEC Short Sale Rule 201 in Effect
    *16. juuni - SEC Short Sale Rule 201 Continued
    *15. juuni - SEC Short Sale Rule 201 in Effect


    Ülevaade ka sellest, mis hinnasihtidega analüütikud SPRD aktsiat katavad/katsid. RBS on väljas kõrgeima ehk US $33 hinnasihiga, HSBC $30, Morgan Stanley $27, JPM $26.5, Jefferies $19.25 ning Daiwa Securities on väljas madalaima ehk $17.5-lise aktsiahinna sihiga. SPRD juhtkond korraldab täna pressikonverentsi Eesti aja järgi kell 15:00. Kuulata saab seda siit.

    SPRD aktsiahinna graafik (Allikas: stockcharts.com)



    Ettevõtte suurimad aktsionärid: New Enterprise Associates (6 894 045 aktsiat), Silver Lake Partners (2 828 110 aktsiat), BNY Mellon Asset Management (2 378 627 aktsiat), Hamon Investment Group (2 261 946 aktsiat), SLP Cathay Holdings (2 078 210 aktsiat) ja Fidelity Investments (2 042 540 aktsiat).
  • Eurotsooni juunikuu tarbijausalduse indeks -9,8 vs oodatud -10,0 punkti. Majandususalduse indeks 105,1 vs oodatud 105,0 punkti. Tööstussektori usaldusindeks 3,2 vs oodatud 3,5 punkti. Teenustesektori usaldusindeks 9,9 vs oodatud 9,0 punkti. EURUSD +0,12% ja kaupleb hetkel 1,4387 juures.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SGOC +27.5% (thinly trade, ticking higher), ZZ +11.2%, CAAS +9%, MON +3.5%, DELL +0.4%, NKE +0.4%.

    M&A news: BJ +5% (BJ's Wholesale announces definitive agreement to be acquired by Leonard Green & Partners and CVC Capital Partners for $51.25/share in cash).

    Select financial related names showing strength: NBG +7.1%, BAC +4.3% (confirms Agreement on Countrywide Mortgage Repurchase and Servicing Claims), BCS +3.7%, ING +2.8%, STD +2.8%, C +2.4% (strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), BBVA +2.2%, WFC +2.2%, DB +1.9%, CS +1.2%, HBC +0.6%.

    A few mortgage related names are ticking higher following BAC news: PMI +4.4%, MTG +4.1%, MBI +4.0%,

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: MMR +4.1% (updates Gulf of Mexico exploration & development activities), TOT +1.8%, BP +0.9%, RDS.A +0.8%.

    Other news: ENMD +30.8% (enters into $7.5 mln equity facility; initiates $1.1 mln drawdown), LOGI +5% (still checking), SPRD +4.1% (to host conference call at 8:00 ET this morning; stock dropped ~30% intraday yesterday following a Muddy Waters report but recouped most losses), NOK +2.1% (still checking), JCI +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: X +3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), AKS +2.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank).
  • Detutsche Bank annab täna positiivse reitingumuutuse US Steel (X) ja AK Steel (AKS)-le.
    DB tõstab AKS ja X-i reitingut Hoia pealt Osta peale koos hinnasihtidega vastavalt $ 17,50 ja $ 56,00.


    Steel near trough; negative sentiment at peak; DB constructive on equities We could think of many appropriate titles for this report, but in a nutshell, we now view steel dynamics and investor sentiment as nearly the inverse of early 2011 when we downgraded the sector. Our upgrade is largely based on valuation, but we also believe that steel prices are nearing a 'floor'. Buy AKS and X in anticipation of steel price and demand inflection.

    Analüütikute arvates on terasehinnad on saavutamas oma põhja ja kuigi põhineb nende call peamiselt valuatsioonil, siis nende sõnul on investorite meeleolu pea sama negatiivne, kui see oli aasta alguses, kui nad sektorile negatiivse reitingu andsid.

    Catalysts: steel prices and apparent consumption; seasonal trade could come earlier than normal We believe that steel prices are approaching cost support (marginal cost) and could ultimately push supply out of the market. Scrap prices have been more supportive than expected in recent months and trade contacts suggest that near- term (ex July) prices will be flat-to-up. Further, downtime announcements are likely forthcoming which we’d view as positive, if weakness persists (add’l declines of $100+/st are possible). Also, global steel prices are to become more supported including in China where we believe inventories and steel prices are near bottom. On demand, we expect the 'buyers strike' to end soon...here we find it interesting that recent conversations with consumers have focused on supply risks and when asked, most contacts recognize that end-demand remains 'ok. Also, we anticipate some improvements in industrial activity in 2H (ex. autos), and net-net, we think the seasonal steel 'trade' could begin earlier this year.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et globaalsed terasehinnad ja ka varud (kaasaarvatu Hiinas) on saavutamas oma põhja ning analüütikud usuvad, et nö hooajaline trade võib tulla see aasta varem kui tavaliselt. Lisaks ütlevad nad, et aasta teises pooles on märgata ka tööstuslikku aktiivsust ( välja arvatud autotööstus).

    Tegemist on küll osaliselt valutsioonil põhineva calliga, kuid Deutsche Banki analüütikud on sektorit hästi katnud ning nüüd on nad taas muutunud positiivseks. Täna on turuosalised tõenäoliselt keskendunud Kreeka uudistele, aga kui positiivne sentiment jätkub, siis usun, et seda jagub ka AKS ja X- aktsiatele.



  • EURUSDis korralik volatiilsus, kukkudes vähem kui minutiga 1,4415 juurest 1,4320 peale ja pea sama kiirelt rallis tagasi. Hääled jagunevad hetkeseisuga 77-68 kärpekava vastuvõtmise poolt.
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SHAW -13.3%, EXFO -12.8%, OMN -7.5%, PRGS -4.9%, FDO -2.3%, GIS -2.2%, SNX -1.5%, KBH -0.8%.

    Other news: PDEX -16.4% (discloses customer update; said does not plan to place any new orders), AHT -3.5% (commenced a 6 mln share common stock offering), MDT -1.2% (CEO Omar Ishrak issues statement on rhBMP-2 articles in Spine Journal; strongly believe that the safety profile reported to the FDA and summarized in the product label support the safe use of rhBMP-2).

    Analyst comments: PVA -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse).
  • Ja kärpeplaan võeti parlamendi poolt vastu. EURUSD püsib hetkel allpool 1,4400 taset.
  • Keep in mind that there is another vote tomorrow on the implementation of the plan. (briefing)

  • Can the Bulls Continue Their Stampede?
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/29/2011 8:26 AM EDT

    To be trusted is a greater compliment than being loved.
    -- George MacDonald

    The market is set to open up very strongly this morning, which will result in the biggest three-day rally of the year. The big issue to ponder is whether or not we trust it to continue.

    The bears are already growling about how the market has rallied on the same Greek bailout news a dozen times and how this low-volume strength is classic end-of-the-quarter window dressing. The shorts are being squeezed and underinvested bulls frustrated as the typically upbeat trading in front of a holiday takes hold. The bears are extremely anxious to short this action, but those who have acted too quickly are being painfully squeezed so far.

    Technically, the action is a classic counter-trend move within a downtrend. Market players are badly out of position and that causes the market to go straight up and not let anyone in very easily. There are almost no pauses at all, which usually indicates that short-covering is taking place. Suddenly there is great concern out there that maybe the worst really is over and we better hurry up and jump in before the market runs away without us.

    If you look back in late 2008 and early 2009, when the market was in complete collapse, you will see a number of huge rallies very similar to what we have now. It is the nature of downtrends to produce these moves that cause great frustration for skeptics when bearishness becomes a bit too extreme. These moves often end very abruptly and that is what we really have to be watching for now.

    The good news for the bulls is that we still have a couple more days of positive seasonality in front of the Fourth of July but the window dressing pressures should start to come to an end today. Window dressing doesn't last through the last day of the month or quarter because it simply becomes too blatant at that point.

    The biggest danger for the bulls here is that the Greek bailout situation is presenting a classic "sell the news" setup. The market has been anticipating and pricing in a favorable outcome for quite a while now and it will come as no big surprise at all when there is a favorable vote on austerity. Even if Greece doesn't do what it needs to, France and Germany seem to save them regardless.

    I suspect that the bears are already looking to fade the strength this morning in anticipation of a reversal on the Greek vote. When you also consider that we are seeing some window dressing action and short squeezes at work, the bear case for shorting this strength is almost too obvious.

    While it isn't my style to take a contrary approach and catch turning points, I often end up being far less bullish at a juncture like this simply because too many stocks have run too much to offer good entry points. I have been doing some flipping into strength the last few days, which has reduced my long inventory quite a bit. Now I am having trouble finding new longs that aren't extended after a giant move. Even worse, the momentum is very tough to trust since volume has been so light.

    News that Bank of America (BAC) is settling charges related to the mortgage mess is helping to boost financials this morning. The dollar is being hit hard, which is boosting oil and commodities and we have another "Greece is saved" rally occurring. The bulls are looking to continue their stampede, but the bears are licking their chops and looking for entries as the end of the quarter draws near. It is going to be a very interesting battle and we need to stay on our toes and move fast if we hope to profit.

    At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
  • Nelli poolt esile toodud USA terasesektor näib lisaks kauplemisideena huvitav ka pikaajalisemalt. Siin üks gaafik, kust näha terase nõudluse kasvupotentsiaali võrreldes ajalooga (eriti kole on hetkel olukord kinnisvaraarenduses):

    Viimastel kuudel allapoole tulnud järgmise aasta ootuste põhja kauplevad sektori aktsiad ca 8 EPSi ja 5x EBITDA’t.


  • DAX futuur liikus hääletuse ajal üsna närviliselt, hetkel kauplemas +1,8% ligidal.
  • May Pending Home Sales m/m +8.2% vs -0.6% Briefing.com consensus
  • Kreeka rahandusministeerium on väidetavalt protesteerijate poolt põlema pandud.
  • See on seal tavaline asi. Tean juhtumeid, kus Kreeka delegaadid EU nõuandvates komiteedes paar istungit vahele pidid jätma, kuna peksti meeleavaldajate poolt töölt koju minnes läbi. Samuti on tavaline, et jäetakse õigel ajal edastamata statistika näiteks, kuna töökoht on meeleavaldajate piiramisrõngas või põlema süüdatud ja ei pääse seetõttu tööle. Busness as usual Kreekas.
  • Täna alustas kauplemist ka firma nimega HomeAway (AWAY), mis tegeleb üle terve maailma villade ja korterite rentimisega ehk teisisõnu vahendab firma inimeste elamispindu või tühjana seisvat kinnisvara turistidele, kes eelistavad hotelli asemel rentida endale näiteks villa. Lõviosa firma käibest tulebki tasust, mida kinnisvaraomanikud firmale maksavad selle eest, et saaksid olla ettevõtte kodulehel olevas nimekirjas. Ettevõttel on 31 veebilehte üheteistkümnes keeles.
    IPO aktsiahinnaks kujunes $ 27 ja hetkel kaupleb AWAY $ 40 taseme all.
  • AKS ja X-i üle ei saa täna ühtegi halba sõna öelda, sest mõlemad aktsiad on alates avanemisest kenasti ülespoole rühkinud. X avanes $ 44,39 pealt ja hetkel kaupleb $ 46,15 kandis, 6,5% plusspoolel ja AKS avanes $ 15,09 pealt ning on samuti liikunud, kaubeldes praegu $ 15,60 kandis, 5,6% plusspoolel.



  • Fed releases final rule on Durbin, V/MA popping
    Mõlemad hetkel halted!

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