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Börsipäev 4. juuli

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  • Kuna Ühendriikides tähistatakse täna iseseisvuspäeva, siis peaks nädal algama ka Euroopa börsidel suhteliselt uimaselt, eriti kuna turgudel pole juhinduda ka ühestki olulisest makrouudisest. Nädalavahetusel kinnitasid Euroopa rahandusministrid Kreekale ootuspäraselt viienda laenueraldise ning IMF peaks sama tegema nädala teises pooles. Küll aga uskusid paljud, et lähinädalatel võidakse heaks kiita ka teine laenupakett, ent nüüd räägitakse sügisest, mis lisab täiendavat määramatust, kuna enne seda võidakse Kreekasse teha uusi kontrollvisiite ning uurida, kas defitsiidi vähendamisega ollakse graafikus.
  • Euroopa rahandusministrite grupi juht Jean-Claude Juncker tegi pärast Kreekale suunatud viienda rahasüsti heaks kiitmist avalduse, milles ütles, et "Kreeka iseseisvus saab olema tugevalt piiratud." The Guardiani vahendusel:
    Greece staved off the immediate threat of default at the weekend but now faces severe restrictions on its sovereignty and must push through a wave of privatisations akin to the vast sell-off of East German firms in the 1990s after the fall of communism.

    Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, told Germany's Focus magazine that teams of privatisation experts from around Europe would now be heading to Athens to push through the state sell-offs, which are slated to raise €50bn (£45bn): "The sovereignty of Greece will be massively limited," he said.

    Juncker's interview appeared just hours after Eurozone ministers signed off the fifth tranche of last year's bailout, worth €12bn. The payment must now be rubber-stamped by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and pushed through by 15 July in time to meet several bond repayment deadlines. Agreeing the latest IMF payout, on 8 July, will be an early task for Christine Lagarde, the new IMF boss, who starts work in Washington on Wednesday.

    Juncker said Greece needed to adopt a process similar to the Treuhand agency, used by Germany to sell off 14,000 former East German firms between 1990 and 1994 – even though Treuhand failed to deliver any profit, oversaw huge job losses and eventually closed its books with a deficit.

    But he did appear to acknowledge that the Greeks were hostile to foreign officials appearing to take charge: "One cannot be allowed to insult the Greeks. But one has to help them. They have said they are ready to accept expertise from the eurozone."
  • S&P reitinguagentuur ei tee Kreeka osas järeleandmisi. FT kirjutab täna, et S&P ähvardab endiselt anda Kreeka võlakirjadele default staatuse.
    French and German banks’ plan to roll over their holdings of Greek debt suffered a huge blow on Monday as Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency, said the move would amount to a default.

    The proposal to provide up to €30bn ($43.6bn) in financing for Greece had been made conditional on rating agencies not downgrading Greece’s debt. But S&P said in a statement early on Monday that any rollover would be a “distressed” transaction and thus lead to Greece’s rating being lowered to selective default.

    Such a move all but scuppers the rollover proposal in its current form. It is also likely to further heighten European scrutiny and scepticism of rating agencies, who are blamed by some for stoking the eurozone debt crisis as well as having missed the causes of the 2008 financial crisis.

    Fitch, the third-largest ratings agency, has also hinted it would rate any rollover as a default. “If it looks like a default, we will rate it as a default,” Fitch said in a recent letter to the FT.
  • Eurotsooni juulikuu Sentix investorite usaldusindeks tuli 5,3 vs oodatud 0,6 punkti ja juunis oli näit 3,5 punkti. Riskisentiment on vastu hommikut kerge surve all ja ka euro on Aasia sessioonil tehtud enam kui kolme nädala tipust taandunud, kaubeldes avanemistaseme $1,4525 juures.
  • Deutsche Bank on strateegiliselt olnud aktsiaturgude suhtes positiivne alates 2010.a septembrist, kuid taktikaliselt muututi neutraalseks 4. märtsil 2011, kui USA makro väljavaadet hakati kärpima ja nafta pani negatiivsete mõjude pärast muretsema. Eelmisel reedel muutus DB aktsiate suhtes taktikaliselt taas positiivseks, kuna nafta hinnaga seotud riskid on alanenud ning usutakse, et aasta teises pooles suudab USA SKT konsensuse allapoole toodud ootusi üllatada.

    We believe this growth weakness is temporary and that the recovery will regain traction. Our optimism is based on the very low levels of current borrowing, and our credit impulse argument that a slowdown in the pace of de-leveraging is sufficient to boost demand growth. We place tremendous weight on this argument. The positive credit impulse boosted real private sector demand growth in the euro area (2.1% yoy) and the US (3.5% yoy) over the last four quarters, and the negative credit impulse in China has raised concerns about the possibility of a hard landing. With the impulse remaining positive in the US and euro area and turning to neutral from negative in China, the outlook for demand in H2 is good.



    The weakness to date has been due partly to the natural volatility of economic growth, and partly due to temporary factors such as the higher oil price and the tsunami that struck Japan. As the impact these temporary factors fades, the continued improvement in credit markets should sustain real GDP growth at rates above trend.

    On a trailing PE of 13.25 (or a forward PE of 12.25) our earnings expectations imply a yearend Stoxx 600 target of 315, around 20% above current levels. Given our positive growth expectations and the relative performance of sectors year to date, we would be overweight cyclicals and underweight defensives. Our preferred sectors are autos, basic resources and financials, and we would be underweight food and beverages, utilities and telecoms.

    We are launching a thematic basket this month DBCGCYCP of what we regard as cheap cyclicals. They are companies that have underperformed during the cyclical rout, have higher than average levels of operational leverage and where forecast margins are cheap (the ratio of EBIT margins to EV/sales is better than the market average). Companies such as the DB Buy rated Stora Enso, UPM-Kymmene, YIT, Konecranes, Renault, STMicroelectronics, Metro, Wincor Nixdorf, Fiat Industrial, Prysmian, Mediaset, Philips, Acerinox, Georg
    Fischer, BAE Systems and WPP.
  • Eurotsooni maikuu tootjahinnaindeksid -0,2% vs oodatud -0,1%, langedes eelmise kuu +0,9% pealt (M/M) ja aastases lõikes +6,2% vs oodatud +6,3%, langedes samuti eelmise kuu +6,7% pealt.
  • Sino Forest rallib Kanada börsil
    Hetkel ca 50% tõusus
    TSE:TRE

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