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Börsipäev 19. juuli

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  • Sentimenti on turgudel jätkuvalt varjutamas hirm nii Euroopa kui USA võlakriisi pärast, kuigi viimast sessioonide seas on olnud üksikuid säravaid tähti, mis kas tänu headele majandustulemustele või nende ootuses on võimsalt vastuvoolu rühkimas. Reedel aitas tehnoloogiasektorit Google ning eile sooritas uued ajaloolised tipud Apple, kes täna hilisõhtul raporteerib oma kvartalinumbrid. Kuigi tulemustehooaeg läheb suurema hooga käima sellest nädalast, siis siiani näib ootusi ületanud kvartaliraportitel väga vähe jõudu olevat, et üle mängida makrost tulenev negatiivne meeleolu. IBM avalikustas oma teise kvartali näitajad eile pärast turgu, lüües ootusi ning kergitades prognoose, kuid aktsia liikumine jäi järelturul küllaltki vaoshoituks.

    Makrouudistest langeb fookus täna Euroopa ja Saksamaa ZEW küsitlustele kell 12.00 ning USA poolel kuuleme, kui paljude elamuehitustega tehti algust juunis ning kui suur oli väljastatud elamuehituste arv (kell 15.30). Oma majandustulemused teevad täna enne turgu teatavaks muuhulgas Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson. Pärast turgu saabuvad aga Apple ja Yahoo!

    Aasia on kauplemas valdavalt punases, USA indeksite futuurid viitavad kergele kosumisele ja Euroopa peaks avanema praeguse info kohaselt ca 0,3% plusspoolel.
  • 29. juulil avaldatakse USA Q2 esimene SKP number (QoQ % SAAR). Kui veel paar kvartalit tagasi oodati majandustegevuse nii-öelda elavnemist aasta teises pooles, siis paraku prognoosiks ilmselt see jäigi. Möödunud nädalal tegi SKP prognooside langetamisega algust Goldman Sachs - Q2 prognoosi langetati 2.0% pealt 1.5% peale ning Q3 prognoosi 3.25% pealt 2.5%-le. Samuti lubas USA majandust kattev tiim üle vaadata ka Q4 ja CY2011 prognoosid - suure tõenäosusega langetatakse ka neid.



  • Texas Industries on selles nimekirjas üleliigne. 13. juuli reportis.
  • Tänud. Briefing on millegipärast tänast kuupäeva näitamas.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: EXAR +11.7%, PII +5.4%, KEY +4.4%, STLD +3.7%, NVS +3%, WYNN +2.5%, MOS +2.3%, IBM +1.6%, KO +1.3%, BK +1.1%, .

    Select financial related names showing strength: NBG +4.1%, BCS +3.9%, LYG +3.8%, RBS +3.4%, DB +3%, STD +2.2%, BBVA +2%, UBS +1.6%.

    Select casino/gaming related names showing strength following WYNN results: MGM +2.8%, LVS +2.6%, MPEL +2.1%.

    Other news: CDTI +17.6% (announced that it has been chosen as a catalyst supplier to Fisker Automotive), EK +5.2% ( ITC said Kodak is not infringing on AAPL patents), PQ +4.8% (announces a discovery at its La Cantera Prospect, updates operating activities and hedging), FFN +2.4% (announces acquisition of PerfectMatch.com), KOG +2.4% (announces upsizing and pricing of common stock offering; co raises share offering to 24 mln shares from 20 mln at a price of $6.10), EPD +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AMZN +1% (Amazon.com lifting in early trade following reports that the California AG will allow tax referendum (voters can overturn online sales tax ruling), BIDU +0.9% (launches landmark licensed music service with One-Stop China).

    Analyst comments: AIXG +3.7% (upgraded to Buy at Kaufman), NOK +2.6% (upgraded to Neutral at WestLB ), CAT +1.4% (initiated with Outperform at William Blair), DE +0.9% (initiated with Market Perform at William Blair).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AVY -8.1%, LNCR -3.8%, GS -3.1%, MMR -2.1%, BTU -0.4%, BAC -0.4%.

    Other news: SBLK -11.4% (announces public offering of 16,500,000 common shares), DYAX -6% (still checking), PLOW -3.2% (files to sell 3,079,128 shares of common stock offered by selling shareholders; co files to sell 5 mln shares of common stock from the co), NBS -3% (announces it intends to offer and sell shares of its common stock and warrants in an underwritten public offering).

    Analyst comments: USG -2.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC), SMG -1.3% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO ), AN -1% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo).
  • June Buidling Permits 624K vs 609K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 609K from 609K
    June Housing Starts 629K vs 570K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 549K from 560K
  • Jätkame taas oma traditsioonilise tulemuste tabeliga ning täna hommikuste teatajate tulemused ka tabelisse kantud.
  • A Calmer Climate for Trading
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/19/2011 8:21 AM EDT

    "Jumping at several small opportunities may get us there more quickly than waiting for one big one to come along."

    -- Hugh Allen

    Can a positive reaction to earnings reports help to light a fire under this market? That is the question we confront this morning. The market has been focused on the debt issues in both Europe and the U.S. and hasn't been able to generate any enthusiasm lately, but good reports from IBM (IBM) , Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Bank of America (BAC) are helping the mood this morning. In addition Apple (AAPL) , which is probably the most important stock in the market, reports tonight, and expectations have been ramping up for a couple weeks now.

    What is important about these earnings reports isn't just the numbers but that the market is shifting its focus to micro matters -- at least for a little while. Although there are still plenty of big-picture worries out there, we have a pause in the negativity as market players recognize that there really are some pretty good reports out there. Companies can still make money, although we have a slew of economic negatives.

    The key now is to watch for a theme to develop. Is the market rewarding good reports? Is good news sold, or is bad news bought? We usually end up with some sort of theme during earnings season as more reports hit. It usually is a function of the level of expectations in place, but this market faces a different problem because of the recent focus on macro matters.

    The danger is that market players will look to sell earnings report not because expectations were too high but because they are concerned that the big-picture worries are going to continue to act as a damper. We saw yesterday and last week as well very little sustained buying interest. Although technical conditions were positive for some upside, we were unable to shrug off the dominating big-picture blues.

    The challenge of the market lately is that the focus has been on the macro and not the micro, which renders a focus on individual stock picking as irrelevant. It really doesn't matter whether you pick good stocks or not when they all move in tandem depending on the news headlines.

    With benign macro news overnight, some good individual earnings reports and the focus on Apple tonight, we should have a better environment for trading of individual stocks today. We shall see how that develops, but I'm looking for market players to focus more on those stocks with positive chart setups as well as the potential for good earnings.

    My overall market view has been agnostic lately. While we aren't seeing any notable upside momentum, we are holding up and are at a point where it would be reasonable to turn to the upside for a while. I'm not going to be too trusting of upside for very long, but it looks like the way to lean if you are trying to knock out some faster trades.

    Some of the best trading can occur in very quiet markets as the hot money gravitates toward a smaller group of active names. That is what I'm looking for today.
  • Oppenheimer tõstab täna Netflix (NFLX)-i hinnasihi $ 280 pealt $ 360 peale ja kinnitab ka oma Osta soovitust aktsiale.

    Kui eile muutus PacificCrest NFLX-i suhtes negatiivseks, siis täna annab Oppenheimer aktsiale hinnasihi, mis on new street high.

    Int'l expansion will be main growth driver. Our model now makes explicit assumptions for int'l subs based on country-specific broadband penetration rates and monthly pricing. Initial markets include South/Central America in 2011, followed by two European countries and India in 2012.
    Data-driven model leads us to believe pricing change will have minimal negative impact on sub growth. While there has been considerable s peculation about the impact of the revised pricing plan ($7.99 for either streaming or DVDs; $15.98 for both), we believe the company would not administer this change unless user data supported this initiative.
    Assuming terminal US EBIT margin of 24%; Int'l margin of 36%. We believe NFLX has found the correct model to return the majority of the value to content owners, as its margins are well below other forms of distribution. However, we expect higher int'l margins due to complexities & fragmentation.


    Analüütikud näevad firma jaoks suurt potentsiaali just rahvusvahelisest laienemisest, viidates juba olemasolevatele turgudele ning 2012. aastal on veel tulemas kaks uut riiki Euroopas ja India. Analüütikud on ka veendunud, et hiljuti teatatud hinnatõus omab minimaalset mõju kasutajate kasvule.

    Hetkel kaupleb NFLX aktsia eelturul 1,43% plusspoolel ehk $ 283,00 kandis. Tõenäoliselt on NFLX täna ka kaubeldav, kuid nii nagu eilegi on ilmselt ka täna aktsia turu armul, seega tuleks olla väga ettevaatlik, sest tegemist pole ülearu tugeva calliga.

  • Moody's soovitas täna USA valitsusel palju pingeid tekitanud võlalimiit ära kaotada. Reitinguagentuur kirjutab, et "võlalimiit tekitab perioodilist ebakindlust" ja "valitsuse võlakohustuse hooleta jätmise risk väheneks". Teisisõnu, mida rohkem USA kulutab, seda kõrgema krediidireitingu Moody's annab. Reitinguagentuur annab mõista, et USA riigivõla suurus peaks jääma poliitikute otsustada ning limiidi olemasolu ei ole vajalik. Siinkohal tekib küsimus, et kas nad USA riigijuhtimise struktuurist ikka aru saavad? Toonitan, et pärast presidendivalimisi on valitul ca aasta oma plaanide läbisurumiseks, kuna pärast seda on tihtipeale kas enamus esindajatekojas või senatis teise partei käes.

    USA võlalimiit ja riigivõlg.
  • The Fed purchased $720 mln worth of 2013/2014 maturities through its Permanent Open Makret Operations as dealers looked to put back $18.85 bln
  • NFLX oli täna nii ja naa ehk siis esimesed 45 minutit sik-sakitas aktsia $ 286,50 ja 285,50 vahemikus ning alles siis sai jalad maast lahti ning hetkel kaupleb $ 289,00 kandis ehk 3,5% plusspoolel.



  • Chipotle Mexican Grill prelim $1.59, may not compare to $1.69 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $571.6 mln vs $557.57 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • VMware prelim $0.51 vs $0.47 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $921 mln vs $873.49 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Yahoo! prelim $0.18 vs $0.18 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.08 bln vs $1.10 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Intuitive Surgical prelim $2.91 vs $2.71 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $425.7 mln vs $410.5 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Riverbed Technology prelim $0.21 vs $0.21 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $170.3 mln vs $172.69 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    RVBD kauplemas järelturul 13% miinuspoolel, $33,50 kandis.
  • Apple prelim $7.79 vs $5.84 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $28.57 bln vs $24.98 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Apple sees Q4 EPS of ~$5.50 vs $6.44 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs ~$25 bln vs $27.65 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • AlariÜ
    Apple prelim $7.79 vs $5.84 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $28.57 bln vs $24.98 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Apple sees Q4 EPS of ~$5.50 vs $6.44 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs ~$25 bln vs $27.65 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate


    After Hours: 404.63 +27.78 (7.37%)

    Twitteris päris huvitavaid infokilde:

    CFO tells Reuters: 'staggering' results were driven by iphone, ipad
    CFO also says Apple 'sold every ipad we could make' and Asia iPhone sales are "on fire"
    jne

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